원문 보기
Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts, radio, news. Well, despite the ongoing war, global stocks are rallying for a third day as investors seek signs of stability. We've been discussing the market reaction with Cathie Wood, the founder, CEO, and CIO of ARK Invest. The prominent tech investor also gave us her view on the use of artificial intelligence in warfare.
In this part of the conversation, Cathie Wood tells us why she thinks the situation in the Middle East is a short-term issue for markets. The Iran war is placing more bricks into the wall of worry that this bull market is climbing. In the '80s and '90s, which were the golden age for active equity management, it was the same kind of situation.
There were fears all along the way until 1999. 1999, no one seemed to have any fears about anything anymore. But for the rest of that bull market, it was one worry after the other. It was inflation. It was the S&L crisis. It was the several wars. So, but the market did continue to climb that wall of worry, and I do believe that we're in the same kind of bull market now.
In terms of the short-term then, the rate decisions, the central bank decisions this week, how many cuts do you expect from the Fed given the war and the worries around inflation? Well, I don't think they're going to cut at this one. And one of the reasons is the the core personal consumption deflator ticked back up on a year-over-year basis to 3.1% inflation.
And that is one of the primary inflation measures they watch. We watch another measure called Trueflation. Uh and it's blockchain-based. It's 10,000 items, goods, and services uh monitored 24/7. Uh that measure of inflation is at 1 and 1/2. And uh it's interesting. During COVID, it peaked at 11 to 12%.
Whereas the CPI peaked at 9%. Uh and it has tended to lead the CPI. Uh right now, we do have energy prices probably an upward pressure. Um but that is true for Trueflation as well. So, it's gone from uh it was lower than 1% to to 1.5%. If that's if this is as high as it goes, um I think the CPI by the end of this year will resolve below uh below that 2 to 3% range.
In terms of the war and your investments, do you think that there should be limits to how the US uses AI in war? I know that you were talking earlier about the use of drone technology and your own experiences of of understanding how drone technology is used by these cutting-edge businesses. Yes. I think it's a this is a question probably beyond my ken.
Uh but I would say if if AI is limiting uh wartime because targets are hit directly and quickly and you know, the the war is over much more quickly than it might have been in the past. Um you know, I'm I'm sure that the generals out there are saying, "We are saving We are saving a lot of lives." certainly American lives.
Um un- unfortunately and you know when when Americans do go into war zones where there are civilians they always warn civilians to clear out. I think that has been the case for civilian parts of uh of economies in in Iran. So you know, it's this is this is maybe a little bit beyond my investment orientation, but if if it if AI helps bring wars to an end much more quickly than than they have ended historically, I think everyone would agree that's a good thing.
Um just tell me broadly about where your expectation is now for your own investments by the end of the year. How optimistic are you about growth in the industry? I mean, you know, we've just been talking about NVIDIA or hearing from NVIDIA that they want a trillion dollars worth of sales over the next couple of years.
And some people don't see that actually as very big, but there has been such growth in the industry. How How optimistic are you about this year? Well, we monitor the revenue run rate. So you look at the revenues per month for some of these large language model companies and we're astonished at what's happening.
Anthropic, for example, was at a 9 billion revenue run rate in December and it's already up to 19 billion. So really justifying the investment that that they're undertaking. Open AI has gone from 20 to 25 billion. This is in the span of a little more than 2 months. So I think what that's telling us is the impact on productivity of these tools is astonishing and more and more people are willing to pay not just $20 a month but in our case $200 a month for the many seats that we have on open AI and Anthropic and we're even getting to the point where we can see justification for $2,000 a month and what that means is we would not be hiring another research associate.
We would be engaging these large language models to help us with our research and it's the results we are getting and where we use both Palantir and all of the large language models. The results we're getting are astonishing and and many times we have we showcase all the breakthroughs during our morning meeting.
It's just a 15 minute business meeting but uh uh many days we're now having people from all parts of the organization, you know, show and tell, show what they're doing with AI that they could have never done before. They just couldn't do it before in terms of the kinds of tables and graphs and you know, iterations on on some kind of some kind of idea that we're throwing out there.
They're taking us places where you know, we it probably would have taken us I'm going to say months before and now we can do it in days. So that was Cathy Wood of Arc Invest.
Comments 0