저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
Yardeni는 '포효하는 2020년대(roaring 2020s)'를 기본 시나리오로 60%로 유지하고 있습니다. 급등(melt-up) 확률은 5%로 낮추고, 이란 전쟁과 호르무즈 해협 교란으로 인한 폭락·경기침체형 최악의 시나리오 확률은 35%로 높였습니다. 그는 최근의 단기 조정은 아직 조정(correction, 10~20% 하락)으로 보기 어렵다고 보며, 상황이 나빠질 경우 10~15% 조정을 예상합니다. 그는 AI와 생산성 향상, 견조한 기업 실적이 시장을 떠받치고 있으며, 약세장은 매수 기회라고 주장합니다. 또한 Mag7이 현재 AI 군비 경쟁을 벌이고 있으며 그 과정에서 양극화가 나타나고 있다고 설명하면서, 연말 S&P 500 목표치 약 7,700포인트에 대해서는 여전히 낙관적입니다. 연준(Fed)이 신용 충격을 잘 관리해 왔다고 평가했으며, 현 상황을 1970년대 스태그플레이션에 비유하면서도 미국은 에너지 집약도가 낮고 원유 수출국이라는 점에서 차이가 있다고 언급했습니다.
다듬은 글
; Joining us in the last 48 hours, the great bull market piñata, Edward Yardeni joins us of Yardeni Research. How have the last 48 hours been when I believe you just shifted probabilities? of your roaring thesis. How's it been? I got to be a bit [clears throat] of a realist given what is going on. Yeah, I'm still sticking with 60% for what I call the roaring 2020s.
However, I had given 20% to a melt up because things kind of had that potential still. It's not a high probability and 20% to a meltdown or recession. [clears throat] Kind of a bucket for everything that could go wrong. Well, now I'm just 5% for a melt up. That's very unlikely. And 35% for things going wrong, which they are.
Amazon does a 37 to 42 billion-dollar bond offering. Damian tells me it's going to be six phone calls. Heath Terry, brilliant over at Citigroup, publishes and reaffirms AI viability in revenue, in profit, in getting things done with all this cap X synthesizing, as you mentioned, spreads haven't moved.
The bond market's screaming stability. These other news items scre- fold them into your roaring 20s theme. Well, I mean, we've we've done pretty well with that thesis so far. We've got a few more years here left in the decade. I think this will pass at some point. selling yourself. Folks, it's the Yardeni and Camporeale low of October a few years ago and in Ralph Camporeale they nailed it.
Continue. Thank you very much. So, look, I think in the short term we clearly have an issue I I with the Strait of Hormuz. It's It's It's hard to get optimistic here unless we see some tankers actually going through there without any incident. I know the president would sounds like he wants to declare victory here pretty shortly, but uh you know, I I I I think I think Iran lost the war, they just don't really know it and they're not acting like it.
And the problem with this uh country is that it's a terrorist state uh with a terrorist organization that uh uh basically spreads terrorism around the world and they're professional terrorists. And so, it's very hard to kind of beat them just by uh blasting them with the bombs. Ed, back in December you correctly I'm going to give Ed a softball here.
He correctly called for an underweight position in the Mag 7 and the basket's now down 6.3% year-to-date. I'm I'm curious, do you see further weakness in US tech stocks right here right now or is this a buying opportunity? Well, I think it's becoming very bifurcated. The companies that still have moats, the companies that uh you know, basically competing in still fairly stable marketplaces, I think are are fine.
The problem for the Magnificent Seven is that they they used to be kind of like the Game of Thrones, you know, it was like seven independent kingdoms that had moats and didn't really bother each other, but ever since AI, they're competing like mad and it's um you know, it's an AI arms race. We're going to continue with Ed Yardeni.
Doctor Yardeni of Yardeni Research. Can't say enough about his research. It's an exceptionally valued Yardeni report that you get from him uh literally on a daily basis. Damien Sass our in-time king with Ed Yardeni. We'll move forward here in a bit to further discussion of what we saw in the Secretary of Defense's press conference here a bit ago, but it is about the market markets.
[clears throat] Here's the summary for those of you across this nation waking up. The VIX was 35. That is painful. We've come in dramatically to a 24.57 with red and green on the screen, but a decidedly better tape today than what we witnessed in the last 48 hours with the market opening. Alexis Christoforous.
All right, thanks very much, Tom. And investors continuing to try to assess how long this war with Iran will go on and what its global impact will be especially on the oil markets. So, we have a mixed start here to the morning. The S&P 500 down three points at 6793. Dow Jones Industrial Average down about 25 points, but the NASDAQ in the green right now by about 42 points.
The Russell 2000 is down just fractionally. We've got Brent crude at 9144 the barrel down 7 and 1/2%. WTI crude down about 7% now to 8804 the barrel and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index at 119784. Spot gold, by the way, bouncing back up 1 and 1/2% at 5215 the ounce. And Amazon returning to the bond market selling the debt in as many as 11 tranches ranging from 2 to 50 years.
It's the latest in a series of jumbo bond sales by hyperscalers as they gear up to invest in what else but AI. That's your Bloomberg Opening Bell report, Tom and Damien. Alexis, thank you so much. Again, red and green on the screen. NASDAQ with a little bit of a bid 24.25 on the VIX. Ed Yardeni with us always associated with Professor Tobin at Yale, but before that high above Cayuga's waters at Cornell University.
Eswar Prasad is one of the great optimists of international economics. His new book out of Cornell is the doom loop on the economic order. He even gets Game of Thrones into the first chapters. He's got Cersei doing an economics. You, more than anyone I know, Ed, pushes against the concept of a doom loop.
What do you say to the people that feel the gloom, feel the doom? Well, you know, there are a fair amount of perma-bears out there, and a lot of people listen to the perma-bears, and the perma-bears very often sound very logical. The problem is they don't provide a balance, and perma-bears will get you out at the top of the stock market, they'll get you out in the middle, they'll get you out at the bottom.
You'll at the bottom, you'll never be in the stock market if if you have a pessimistic attitude. Also, politics sometimes gets in the way of a clear and clear-headed investing. The market tends to go up as long as earnings are going up, as long as the economy is doing well, and that's been the case for a long, long time.
So, I have this uh a view that correction is in and bear markets are buying opportunities rather than reasons to panic. Well, Ed, you talk about the economy doing well, and in all seriousness, does economic data even matter at this point? I mean, look at last week's payrolls. I mean, the markets looked straight through that for like 3 seconds, and then tomorrow we're going to get a CPI print that by definition after the last week's events is already stale.
So, you know, talk to us a little bit about the economic touchpoints that you're going to be most focused on here. Well, look, I think that the economy still matters cuz earnings still matters. One of the I used I used to be just an economist, I'm also a strategist, and being a strategist is a lot easier.
All you got to do is forecast P E * E, and that's very easy to do. Getting it right, of course, is is the challenge, but it's still it's still those two variables, and the earnings outlook I think remains quite strong as because I think the economy will remain resilient. I mean, in 2022 we had an oil price shock, and the economy made through it just fine.
I I I think I think the data that the stock market is looking at is not just the employment numbers, but they're looking at the productivity numbers. And that's really the bullish story is that productivity is making a huge comeback. Well, as we began our conversation, Tom mentioning that you had upped your probability for a market meltdown from 20 to 35% for the balance of this year.
You know, my my question is this, you know, when I think of meltdown, I think of something on the order of a systemic liquidity shock. And this is a different sort of shock than we've witnessed in, you know, in 2000 and another, you know, kind of you know, what funding and financing metrics are you most focused on here?
Like, what kind of a liquidity shock do you think can happen? Well, clearly, when you look at the history, you find that more often than not, it's a shock in the credit system that causes problems for the stock market and you get a financial crisis because the Fed tightens, something blows up, and that becomes a credit crunch.
It's credit crunch that causes recessions. This time around, I think we have to recognize or remember that the Fed's all awfully good at playing whack-a-mole in the credit markets. You know, as soon as something blows up, they move in pretty quickly. March 2023, we had a banking crisis. It's only three banks, so it was solved over the weekend.
Yeah. Yeah. I got a 15 ways to go here. But, let me just go to the experience. I mentioned earlier this modest drawdown we had in 1987. In my memory, I don't have it in front of me, folks, is what a rebound from October 27th to the end of the year, December of 1987. I remember the sweat in August of 1998.
And off we went to the races in '99. What's different now in tech versus the collapse of March of 2001? Earnings. We we had a lot of dot-coms back then that weren't making any money. We had a lot of telecom companies that were seller financing, so they're kind of creating their own magic. Until that these companies, these mag seven started to kind of finance each other, we [clears throat] didn't really have that issue.
But they're huge cash generators. I think their expenditures are going to prove to be very profitable. So I'm not particularly worried about the the earning side of the tech story. This part of the show this morning, commercial free, the conversation too important. Ed Yardeni, Gina Martin Derry coming on here in a moment.
Damian Sassower and Tom Keene with Alexis Christoforous and Michael Barr. Across this nation on YouTube. What a couple days on YouTube. Thank you so much for this new digital distribution. I can't say enough about it. Subscribe at Bloomberg Podcast for all that we do here in the New York morning. Damian Sassower with Ed Yardeni.
So Ed, we talk about the roaring 20s theme. We talk about, you know, the the the potential for a market meltdown or a market melt up. Talk to me about your stagflationary 1970s redux theme. Redo? Redux. Yeah. If you're in EM, it's redux or whatever you say. We call that redux. I mean, I mean the stagflationary, you know, you know, that that word's coming back.
So talk to us a little bit about what you're seeing there. Yeah, there is a certain amount of deja vu all over again. You know, every time we've had oil shocks in the past, we've typically gotten recessions and and bear markets. The one near near term of exception was what happened in 2022. We got a bear market, but we didn't get a recession.
I don't think we're going to get a recession this time. The recessionary expectations have gone up. But the the US is much less energy intensive. And oh, by the way, we're an exporter of oil and gas, which is a huge difference from what happened in the 1970s. On the other hand, shutting the Strait of Hormuz is a radically different historical development that just hasn't happened before.
And so, my short-term caution bearishness is totally predicated on this geopolitical development. I want to see some tankers get through the strait without getting shot at. Well, I mean, you just mentioned that, and that's where I was going to go. I mean, Gulf traffic is basically off or not, right?
I mean, there's nothing going through, and you know, we just saw last week US Treasury Secretary and Scott Bessent basically slamming, you know, JP Morgan for putting out research about maritime insurance and things of that nature, you know. How focused are you on some of those alternative data sets, you know, kind of trying to gauge out, you know, whether or not shipping, you know, companies even want to, you know, pass through the Strait of Hormuz now, and insurance want to back it.
I mean, who knows? It's funny you asked that. One of the reasons I'm I'm very positive on AI is cuz we're using it all the time, and we've become real fans of Claude. And so, Claude is is on our staff now, and we're we're we're toying around with just asking Claude to follow what the shipping lanes in the strait, and there there's actually data.
So, but we only started doing it yesterday, so I I can't I also want to see the data on drones. I mean, it's it's it's fine for the president to you know, to declare that we're almost there, almost mission accomplished. But, that's not that's not going to be the case unless the drones stop flying into the neighbors into the straits into, you know, aiming at our ships.
And And the March 31st, I believe it's another end of the quarter, if we can get there. And then into April with JP Morgan reporting, and off we go to the Q1 earning season. What does Ed Yardeni see with a broader sense of use of cash? Well, you know, right now, the the earnings story has been phenomenally strong.
And that's really what's been been driving the market. The valuation multiple you know, got up to about 22. It's come down because of this uh pullback so far, which is it's not a correction yet, but I think it has that Why are we I got this is too important. Since when are we hysterical about a Yardeni pullback that as you state is not a correction as we learned it in school?
Well, you know, a pullback is a drop that [clears throat] isn't a correction. A correction is 10 to 20% decline. A bear market is more than 20%. I happen to think that there is 35% probability of things going badly and that would lead to a correction of 10 to 15%. I'm actually amazed by the resilience of the of the not just the economy, but but the stock market.
The stock market wants to believe that all will be well very very shortly. We saw this amazing reversal also in the price of oil as well. You know, what were we thinking? There's plenty of oil out there. Well, there [clears throat] is plenty of oil out there. We just got to get it get to it. Damian, quick one in here.
Quick one. Well, I mean, Ed, what you sound it sounds like you're talking about just cleaner positions, right? And and I mean, if this is really what this amounts to where you basically are giving a lot of, you know, risky investors the opportunity to kind of, you know, pair back their positions and and and and clean them, so to speak.
Does that mean we might look [clears throat] for another leg higher into the, you know, second half of this year? And can we really even see that? Well, I haven't given up on 7,700 by the end of the year. Okay. And so, yeah, I'm I'm I'm arguing that it's not necessarily going to be a a few more days of the war of the war, but it could be a few more weeks.
And that again, I have this tendency to look at sell-offs as buying opportunities rather than reasons to panic. Thank you for coming in. My pleasure, always. can't say enough about it. Folks, I enthusiastically support the work of Dr. your We protect the copyright of all of our uh guests. Please don't call us to get his research. Go to Yardeni Research for his fabulous daily synthesis of economics.
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