저자: VitoLops · 외국인
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결론: 빌 애크먼이 미국채 숏 포지션을 청산했다고 밝히면서 채권시장이 바닥을 찍었을 가능성이 제기되지만, 기술적·심리적으로는 조정 국면이며 추세 전환 확정은 이르다. [애크먼 발언과 시장 반응] 애크먼이 지정학적 위험과 경기둔화를 이유로 미국 국채 숏을 청산했다고 트윗했고, 이후 10년물·30년물 금리가 급락했다. [애크먼의 과거 포지션] 8월 30년물 금리가 4%대일 때 대규모 약세(숏) 베팅을 밝혔고, 5% 부근에서 이익실현한 것으로 언급됨. 당시 30년물 금리가 5%까지 간다고 주장했었다. [차트·기술적 분석 - TLT] TLT는 하락 채널 하단에서 지지를 받고 반등했으며, 작년 10월 저점 91을 갱신하고 82 부근이 현재 사이클 저점으로 제시됨. [10년물 금리 5% 심리적 저항] 10년물 금리가 5%에 두 번 근접했으나 매번 매수세와 연준 인사 발언으로 되돌려졌고, 5% 부근에서 대규모 매수가 나타났다. [수급 요인] 미국 국채 발행 증가 대비 중국·연준(양적긴축)·일본의 매수 감소로 수급 악화. 일본 10년물은 중앙은행 상한 1% 근접. [피보나치 분석] 최근 상승 임펄스의 0.5 되돌림 미도달, 0.471 되돌림까지는 여전히 상승 추세로 볼 수 있다는 관점. [추세 전환 조건] 주식시장 반응으로 보면 금리 우려 국면에서는 나쁜 경기지표가 호재로 작용하나, 경기침체(리세션) 우려로 주제가 옮겨가면 나쁜 지표가 악재가 된다. 소프트랜딩 붕괴 시 금리 하락·채권 강세 전환 가능성이 있다. [리스크] 주간 차트상 슈팅스타 패턴 미확인. 금리 상승 재개 시 애크먼은 단기 고수익 매매를 마친 것이 된다. [출연자 전망] 채권 바닥 가능성은 열려 있으나 확정적이지 않으며, 금리 추세 반전 여부는 향후 거시지표 반응으로 판단해야 한다는 입장.
다듬은 글
Bill Hackman changes his mind and the market has also changed its mind at least in the last few hours Hello everyone Today we are talking about this, what could be the bottom of the bond market with all the consequences Then at an intermarket level and we are also talking about the fact that there are some tweets that have immense power at the moment which is why clearly the social network X the old Twitter perhaps needs to be included in an investor's toolbox because yesterday this sentence was essentially published on Twitter by Bill Hackman, a well-known EDGE manager and he essentially wrote that they have closed their short positions on US government bonds because the global geopolitical risk is so high that remaining short on bonds at this moment becomes risky Also because the economy is slowing down faster than what the data tells us three sentences seen by 3.6 million people the first then clearly the others a little less as happens with all trolls but essentially the market has reacted because if we go and look at the graph I also published it on X Exactly If we go and look at the graph of the yields of US government bonds they had After the words of Hackman a sharp return both in the 10-year part and in the 30- year part Here before continuing Obviously the invitation for those who are new is to subscribe to the channel by clicking on the bell.
Then in the des iction you will find my daily contents on the Sole 24 Ore where I delve into these many other topics so I invite you to read these articles of mine the relevant topic is essentially precisely this: the market was waiting for a trigger to take profit on the short side and to clearly change direction on the bond market given that the rates were rising making everyone a bit nervous and therefore he used Blackman's phrase in quotation marks to set up a reversal that was perhaps in the area this is clearly the doubt that all investors now have but Bill Hackman himself made a great profit from his statements also supported by the market because if we go to note in August when he had written the opposite he said that at this moment Eh had announced that he had set up a major bearish operation on 30-year bonds in the United States the yield was just over 4%.
Then he got to the 5 and 15 and more and took profit by documenting both, let's say, the entry and exit points of his operation in August he had said that 30-year rates could reach 5 Meo for Here, beyond the comments, let's say personal ones that may concern statements that are market sensitive, etc.
etc., we must analyze the investor side. In my opinion and let's say passionate about these issues, if the bond market has reached a bottom, let's go and open the TLT, the ETF on long-term bonds, here we are on prices and not on yields. This is why the curve is low, you see that it is within this descending channel where, however, it found support in the lower part and reacted.
Now it is in the central part of this regression and of this linear regression channel, we will see a little. In any case, we can say that it has updated the minimum of October last year which was 91. Then it arrived to update a minimum around 82 and this for now is the cyclical minimum of the bond market.
As proof of this minimum, there are two important moments every time we now move on to the ten-year because it essentially reached 5% twice, essentially the fateful threshold of 5% and every time it essentially got close to it, it reached it, the banks intervened, some phrases intervened almost to put an end to the [ __ ] in this case we were not at 5% but we were at 4.9% Eh the Central Bank some representatives of the Federal Reserve softened their tone a bit on that occasion saying that the rates probably will not be raised again etc.
etc. triggering this pullback movement towards 4 and then a new attack on the bond market started again and a new bottom of prices and a new maximum of yields and the rates reached 5% you see how they touched it immediately There was a Spike let's go and enlarge and enlarge here is Bakman's tweet you see the Shadow 5% was heavily purchased almost at an algorithmic level as if it were a SOA precisely to be bought where the demand was revised where clearly many investors went and went to fixate for 10 years for the next 10 years this yield in their portfolios eh going to buy at that moment So also technical soy and at this point also psychological since it is a round figure of 5% so at 4.9 the Federal Reserve intervened through its representatives to calm the waters then the market Anyway it went He didn't believe it after a while he started pushing again because there is the issue eh of the difference between supply and demand the United States is issuing many bonds to finance the deficit But the demand is falling because China is no longer buying the states the Federal Reserve is no longer buying because it is tightening and not quantitative easing Japan is certainly no longer a net buyer since the rates in those parts are rising and are approaching the 1% threshold on the 10 years which is the CAP currently set by the Bank of Japan for this reason the rates on the long end are rising but at a certain point the market decided to buy Bakman arrived and gave another proof of willpower that it is a rate At this point important and and that is not will go further so at this point I also ask you at the survey level since we are still many an important community if in your opinion we are at the bottom of the bond market and therefore at the peak of these yields if this economic cycle will have seen the maximum on the 10- year at 5% or if we should worry and go further up because if we look at the graph the trend here we are perfectly in a pullback at the moment And if we also go to trace as I showed you in a video The magic number on the markets for what although it is not a science we go to trace the Fibonacci levels This here is a retracement with respect to the last impulse in the area that has not even touched the 05 of Fibonacci so up to the 4.71 retracement we will still be in a trend in a bullish trend from this point of view from the Fibonacci side Although it is not a science etc.
etc. but this is to tell you that we are still in a pullback mode so we cannot say that the trend of rising yields and consequently of falling prices that are moving in the opposite direction as far as bonds are concerned, it is over from a technical point of view but from the point of view of the feelings of the statements etc.
etc. the market has given a signal, it has given a signal at least that it wants to stabilize a bit around these levels and not go even higher, but we will find out in the next few days, it is too early to say this. That is why I also ask you what you think, we are in uncharted territory, we do not know if the market will have simply taken this statement by Bman as the cue to go and take a break from this, from this rise.
Also because the market does not move in a parabolic way but rather goes by movements that breathe, so yes, bullish trend, you go up, you breathe in the pullback and you go back up and you breathe for now it is a pullback and a breath. However, there is substance behind it, there are large investors who have publicly declared that for them, at these levels, being short represents too high an asymmetric risk.
That is, the probability that rates continue to rise is lower than that they could perhaps fall also in relation to a slowdown in the economy because if the economy slows down and if data on a slowdown in the economy arrives at that point the bond market is the most sensitive, the most reactive and is immediately bought and leaves little time for the players in the field to then let's say enter with the right timing in the position.
This is why at this point in my opinion the market - and I also ask from this point of view your opinion - could switch from the interest rate issue to the recession issue to the macro issue. We know that the market is not multi- tasking, it goes for single issues. Up until now it has been focused on the interest rate issue, so the first concern is to what extent the central banks will raise rates and at this point and then to what extent they will keep them high.
High for longer scenario. This has been the focus of the markets up to now. And if the focus changes and passes, how much these high rates have done to the economy for years that we will see in the coming months and therefore even if the Central Bank then cuts rates, we will still have to take into account that companies will now rent for sure for from a certain point of view it is done and therefore in many profits will still fall and therefore if we move if we ask ourselves This other question, at that point we will have a different reaction to the news and macroeconomic data that will arrive when the interest rate issue is the main topic.
Bad macroeconomic news is received positively. Paradoxically, it seems like a paradox, but it is so from the market because the market is clearly worried above all about interest rates and therefore bad news on the interest rate side is good news because it means that it could increase the probability that the Central Bank will no longer raise interest rates.
But if the market then shifts to the damage to the real economy, to company profits, etc., at that point the bad news is received badly, especially from the leading indicators, from those indicators that look to the future and do not photograph what has happened, the leading indicators or the coincident indicators, and therefore by leading indicators, for example, I am referring to the PMI, the construction indices, etc., etc., even to the stock market itself, it is a leading indicator, even if it is sometimes wrong.
However, in this case we must say that the new news that will arrive could be received in a harmonious way, that is, bad news, a bad reaction from the market because at that point it means which is no longer a soft landing, it would no longer be a simple soft landing. But maybe a slightly deeper recession, therefore more damaged profits and good news instead, a rising market.
Because at that point the soft landing or no landing scenario would gain more strength. Clearly, it is clear that the market always starts with its natural optimism. So even in a moment in which rates are raised, it tries to be positive until the last minute and therefore goes into a non-landing bar.
Soft landing will then be the news that eventually arrives that will make them change their mind. This is why we are at a turning point right now. Maybe Bakman. Who knows if this movement will not be just a pullback but a trend reversal pattern? Let's see on a weekly scale if there is any outline of a Shooting Star.
Not for now. Not for now, but we will see it over the weekend. As for the candle that is being drawn on the 10-year yield. However, if we were to have a reversal and therefore a peak in yields and a bottom in this bond market cycle, we will find out all the more from the reaction of the markets to the macro news.
If the macro news, I repeat for the last time, but repeat it. maybe it helps substantially, the bad news will be received badly by the market at that point it is to be expected that the bond market may have imagined at least at this moment in discounting a bottom scenario Otherwise we will see yields rise again and Bill Hackman will have simply made his super winning 2-3 month trade and ehm but the market will then go on to follow other dynamics well Let me know what you also think of this Lacman effect which has somewhat upset the markets for better or worse and also possibly intermarket relations next time
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