저자: Bullion Times · 외국인
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people should be buying I think silver now more than than gold. I do think that what we've seen if this is the beginning of an unwind unraveling rather of that gold silver spread um then that's bullish because I think when people start getting bullish on silver it's because gold and silver are going up.
I think it's a much stronger bull market when you have silver leading the way. Friday was also a very interesting day because when I woke up Friday morning, silver was up over a dollar. Silver was at like $23 I mean $33, excuse me, $33 and like 3040 and so it looked like a real breakout except the problem was it was only silver.
Gold was only up about four or five bucks. So when I saw that, I was, you know, it was a little little little iffy and I thought, you know, maybe there's just a lot of unwinding of these spreads because a lot of people, I think, have been long gold and short silver as a as a spread, thinking that look, you know, if gold goes down, silver will go down more, and if gold goes up, it's been going up more because it's the ratio has been uh moving in that direction.
So rather than just being long gold, I'll be long gold and short silver and in case the market goes down, I you know, I can make money that way too. But I think that it's been so stretched where the ratio has been more than 90 to1. I was talking about this on the last couple of podcasts. I've been telling people, look, buy silver.
And I still think that you should be buying silver over gold right now, right? Even though I'm, you know, I'm a gold bug. You know, silver is really cheap in terms of gold. And so it looked like we were getting a unwinding of that spread and I think that's what happened. But then as gold started to go down, it cascaded and gold went to down $45 and silver went from up a$110 to unchanged, right?
I think it ended up the day flat. Now, it still was a gain in gold versus silver because, you know, normally or, you know, or not normally, but in recent times, if gold was down $45, silver would have been down a dollar, maybe more. Instead, it was flat. So, I think there was some unwinding going on uh throughout the day, but that unwind caused gold to go down and it also caused the gold mining stocks to get clobbered.
I mentioned we had that outside reversal day on Wednesday and I thought that meant that we would just be going up from there in gold uh gold stocks and instead I got it wrong because we got clobbered on Friday. Now I don't think it changes the trend at all. I think it it kind of was a buy the rumor sell the fact even though I don't know how many people were buying the rumor but we did get uh four uh major gold companies that reported earnings.
Three out of four beat right beat the earnings estimates but all four had great earnings compared to where they what they were earning a year ago. Uh and the price of gold is already much higher than it was uh when they earned this money last quarter. Uh but I think that you know we had had a rally I mean gold stocks were up maybe 20% or so on the year.
Now, compared to where gold is, they should have been up much more than that because they got clobbered at the end of last year for no reason other than Trump winning and gold having a small correction of maybe 7% at max. But that sent gold stocks plunging into bare market territory. Uh but I think a lot of people realized that they were going to beat on earnings and so when they did beat on earnings, uh the stocks got sold.
But I think that's just a temporary move. I think that probably starting this week, people who sold those stocks are going to be buying them back because the outlook for the gold mining sector I think is phenomenal. We're going to get a lot more earnings coming out between now and the end of February.
And I would expect again the trend to be positive just like this time. We got 75% of the companies beating, but even the ones that don't beat, they're still going to have substantial earnings growth. You know, I think in in some ways maybe some of these analysts deliberately want to uh overestimate so that they can punish the stocks when they don't deliver or don't beat those uh rosy estimates.
But even though you have some of these rosy estimates for the current quarter, uh people are not bidding up the stock price. And again, as I said on the last podcast, they look at earnings two or three years into the future and assume they're going to be lower because everybody just pencils in a lower gold price.
You know, ignoring the fundamentals, ignoring the trend of the last 20 years for higher gold prices, everybody on Wall Street just assumes that, you know, a few years from now, gold's going to be a lot cheaper. uh and so that is impacting their outlook for future earnings and therefore uh the recommendations on you know whether people should buy or whether they should sell because it it affects the present value of uh of those future future uh income streams.
So people should be buying these stocks I think next week and silver um people should be buying I think silver now more than than gold. I do think that what we've seen if this is the beginning of an unwind unraveling rather of that gold silver spread um then that's bullish because I think when people start getting bullish on silver it's because gold and silver are going up.
I think it's a much stronger bull market when you have silver leading the way. Uh and I think maybe we're going to be entering that. So, at this point with silver still trading around $32 and gold, you know, near, you know, it's $2,900. Even though it dropped $45, it's still barely below $2,900. Uh, in fact, it's up, you know, it's up $13 right now on Sunday night.
So, it's just 28.95. We're only $5 below 2,900. Um, silver should already be above $50 given where gold is at at a minimum. I so for now I would focus on it and es especially with the tariffs looming you know there's been articles written and it's happening they're not just writing the articles they're you know writing about what's going on but a lot of gold has been coming into the United States a lot of it coming in from London uh and the reason I think you're seeing a rush of imports is to get ahead of these tariffs because the tariffs would apply to gold and a lot of the gold that Americans might want to buy is going to be imported it.
You know, America produces gold. We're the the fifth largest gold producer in the world. Number one is China, right? They're pretty much number one in everything. Number two is Russia. Number three is Australia. Number four is Canada and then the United States. But if gold demand really picks up, which it should, we won't be able to meet it with our domestic production.
And so we're going to need imports. Well, if there's a 25% tariff, who's going to want to pay 25% more for their gold. So the idea is let's bring the gold into the country now so that we don't have to import it. Well, I would suggest the same thing for our customers at Shift Gold, right? Don't wait to buy your gold after there's tariffs.
That's the worst time to buy it. It's going to be tough, you know? Uh so if you want to have physical possession of gold and silver, buy it now. Not only because the price is going to go up, but because the tariffs may go on. And of course, the gold producers are not going to eat those tariffs. Tariffs for sure will go dollar for dollar.
So if if Trump imposes 25% tariffs on gold, any gold coming into this country is going to be marked up by $25. Otherwise, it won't come in because nobody in Russia is going to sell gold to America for a dollar less than they can sell it in Europe, right? The price is the price. And so, if we want to tax Americans $25 to buy Russian gold, then they're going to pay $25 20 25% more than what the Europeans are paying for the same for the same gold.
So, the idea is to buy it now. And the same would be true with with silver. Now, I guess if you're buying like junk silver, uh it, you know, obviously that's not imported, but that's, you know, when you're buying junk silver, that's a used product, right? By definition, right? You're buying it from somebody who's selling it.
But if there's a 25% tariff on silver coming in, that's going to cause a big premium in junk silver because people buying junk silver or anybody who's buying, you know, a used uh silver product that's already in this country, right? They're going to be able to charge more because it's not going to be competing with the new products that are being imported into the country.
So, uh, the big guys, the institutions are trying to jump ahead and they're buying their metal. Now, I would suggest that, you know, my followers, customers, shift gold, do the same thing, except more so with silver, right? Buy your silver now. Uh, maybe there'll never be tariffs. Well, it's still cheap.
You should buy it anyway. Even if you would didn't you didn't have the threat of tariffs that were going to make physical gold and silver a lot more expensive, you'd want to buy it anyway. So now you got another reason, right? You you could kill two birds with one stone. You can get in to silver uh before the price goes up and you can beat the tariffs.
And if it turns out there are never tariffs, well then you still did the right thing by buying it. And the fact that we did get this sell off, you know, it it may have been off to the races on uh on on on Friday after it was up a dollar, maybe it would have got up two or three and who knows. The fact that, you know, it it came down, that that's that's a good thing if you want to buy some silver.
I had no intention of selling any of mine, so it doesn't matter to me. And I got a lot of followers who would like to buy more silver. So, I'm happy when anybody is dumb enough to sell it because that means my my clients uh can uh can take advantage of that and buy it.
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