저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
Schiff은 연준이 인플레이션 대응이 아닌 완화적 정책을 유지하며 실질금리는 여전히 마이너스라고 주장한다. 2026년 CPI가 5%대로 오를 것이라 예상하고, 국가부채 이자 비용 증가(1.4조달러)가 연준의 추가 양적완화를 부를 것이라 본다. 금은 4000달러 부근을 지지선으로 보며 강한 반등을 예상하고, 은은 50달러가 새로운 바닥이라고 말한다. 금광주가 금 현물보다 저평가됐다고 보고, 유가 상승도 결국 금 가격을 밀어올릴 것이라고 주장한다.
다듬은 글
Gold. The gold market has fallen back a little below the 4000 mark. I think it only traded below 4000 for one day. I see a real dollar crisis, a debt crisis, and significant price increases. Meanwhile, shares of gold mining companies are yielding significantly more profits than they did a few years ago.
This is an extremely loyal policy of the Federal Reserve. This is not the same Fed that fights inflation. So, despite Worsh's words that scared the market, I believe that gold prices will increase significantly. I think the price of gold will outpace the price of oil. I think when we get the data for the next 3 months, we'll see the 2026 CPI with a five at the beginning.
Negative yields will increase, creating even greater incentive to avoid losses by buying gold. Logically, such parabolic growth was unsustainable, and we saw a pullback. Right now, frankly , any price below $60 is a bottom. I think 50 is probably the new 20 for silver. Silver still looks undervalued to me.
Gold tried to rally, rising from 4,000 at the beginning of August to over 4,600 at the end of the month, but since then we have seen a sharp sell-off and now the price is around 4,100-plus. What do you think about this price dynamics? Why do you think this growth has not been sustained? I think the markets were surprised by the higher-than- expected inflation data, which logically should have been a positive factor for gold.
But this forced the Fed to change market expectations from lowering rates to raising them. Moreover , the Fed has already made its first quarter- point hike at a recent meeting. I think it was the fears of a tighter Fed policy and higher rates that caused gold to lose the gains of that rally. But I believe we are testing and building strong support around the 4000 level, which is where gold initially fell after hitting an all-time high around 5600.
Gold. The gold market has fallen slightly below 4000 again. It traded below 4000 for a day or two at most before recovering. And this time the price didn't even drop below 4,000. It was below 4,100, but still held at four thousand. So, I think gold is poised for another significant rally once the markets realize that these rate hikes are pointless, and that they will not pose any headwinds for gold, as these hikes are much smaller than the unexpected inflation increase.
In fact, inflation has already risen much more than the Fed is even considering raising rates. So, the actual rates are actually much lower than the market expected. So the price of gold should be much higher. I want to focus on the Fed for a moment because the conventional wisdom, of course, is that rising Treasury yields and, of course , rising federal funds rates are a bearish signal for precious metals .
However, at this point, even if you get over 5% on a Treasury bill, you are not ahead of the real rate of inflation, given how skewed the CPI and other government inflation statistics are. Do you think rising yields—if we see more rate hikes and higher U.S. Treasury yields—are factors holding back gold?
And if so, can we expect further declines if yields on long-term Treasury bonds, 20- and 30- year bonds, reach 6% or higher? So, I think it's the misconception about what rising bond yields mean that's currently holding gold back. But this misconception will eventually dispel. You know, if you look at the CPI, as you pointed out, it's an imperfect indicator because it underestimates what's actually happening.
But so far in 2026, in the first 9 months, the CPI has increased by 4%. It grew by 2.9% for the entire year of 2024, which was Biden's last year. It was 3.4% in 2023, Biden's penultimate year. So, we have already exceeded the indicators of both those years, and there are still three months ahead. I think when we get the data for the next 3 months, we will see a figure of 5 in the annual CPI for 2026.
So, by this measure, the federal funds rate will still remain negative at the end of the year. This is not, you know, tight monetary policy . This is an extremely stimulating policy. By the way, the highest inflation rate in any calendar year under Biden was 7% in 2021. I think there is a high probability that in 2027 the figure will be higher than seven.
But I doubt the federal funds rate will be much higher than five. So, the negative return will only increase. Which creates even greater incentive to avoid losses by buying gold. So, rather than being a drag on gold, I believe rising bond yields will be a tailwind, as they won't rise enough to offset losses from inflation.
In fact, as rates rise and more U.S. government debt needs to be repaid and refinanced, there is pressure on the cost of debt service . The latest government figures showed that annual interest costs on the national debt now stand at 1.4 trillion. But this figure is growing every month. And, you know, sometime next year it's going to hit 2 trillion, which means it's going to be more than Social Security spending.
Social Security is now 1.7 trillion. Of course, this figure will also increase next year. But interest on the national debt is now the second largest government expenditure item, yet it is growing the fastest. So at some point the Fed will have to not just stop raising rates but also expand its quantitative easing program because there won't be enough private buyers for negative- yielding Treasury bonds.
Now, if gold fans are saddened by the metal's falling price , silver holders are even more upset as we see the metal fall to around $57 after soaring into triple digits at the start of the year. Personally, I bought at these levels. I'm wondering if you see this as an opportunity to accumulate, and how low do you think silver could go in a worst-case scenario?
Well, I think $50 is a support level because I think it was resistance that actually held the market back since 1980-81. This was a very significant resistance in 2011. And even when gold initially rose from 2,000 to 4,000, silver still couldn't break through that level. It was only when gold finally made that rally from $4k to $5k that silver suddenly jumped from $30k to $125k.
It was just an explosion with a breakout. Logically, such parabolic growth could not be sustainable, and we saw a pullback. The pullback turned out to be larger than I expected when we were trading at those levels, but I didn't think it was out of the question. And I think any price below $60 is, frankly, a bottom right now.
I think 50 is probably the new 20 for silver. And, you know, we're moving much higher. So the correction was bigger than the one we had with gold, but, um, silver still looks cheap to me relative to gold, although not as cheap as it used to be. You know, at one time there was a ratio of 100 to 1 . It was over 100 to 1 when, you know, gold was at its peak and silver was still, you know, below 30.
It was at 20 and just above 20. Gold and silver mining stocks have also fallen sharply recently. What do you think about gold and silver mining companies right now? And how do you view physical metals versus mining companies from a portfolio allocation perspective ? Well, you know, there are different types of investments.
I view gold, physical gold and silver as money, simply as a store of value. This is not an investment as such . It's just a way to preserve your purchasing power. I think that gold and silver mining companies, as an investor, as a stock investor, these businesses are undervalued because I think investors just don't understand how much higher the price of gold and silver is going to be in the future and how much money these companies are going to make not only from their mining operations, but also how much more valuable their inventories are going to be at much higher metal prices.
That's why I own far more mining stocks than physical metal, because I think I'm getting a much better deal on gold that's still in the ground than buying what's already been mined, given that my forecast doesn't quite align with the conventional wisdom about future gold prices. I see a real dollar crisis, a sovereign debt crisis, significantly higher prices.
Meanwhile, you know, gold mining stocks are making a lot more money now than they did a few years ago, even though the price of gold has pulled back. Look where it is now. And even though oil prices are high in dollar terms, you know, over $90 a barrel, when gold is over $4,000 an ounce, historically that's a very cheap ratio between gold and oil.
And oil, you know, is a major component of production costs. But since the price of gold has risen more than the price of oil, it's a great situation for these gold mining companies. And I think gold prices are headed much higher. I think the price of gold will outpace the price of oil. In fact, I think both prices will increase.
So, I think oil prices will increase. And in the short term, rising oil prices have once again become a headwind for gold, as markets perceive it as a sign of tighter Fed policy. But ultimately, higher oil prices will mean a softer Fed policy, as it will be forced to respond by increasing the budget deficit and expanding quantitative easing.
And this will contribute to the growth of the price of gold. We will have higher inflation not because of the increase in oil prices per se, but because of the monetary policy that the Fed will implement in response to this increase in price. So, if we see a general market crash, do you think gold, silver, and related stocks will be hit hard?
And in your opinion, is it advisable to keep additional cash in reserve in such a situation? Or do you think it's more important to simply be in the market than to try to guess the right moment? Well, I wouldn't worry about my physical precious metals even if they temporarily become cheaper. I don't believe the price will stay low, and maybe it won't fall at all .
Perhaps this is the lowest point we can sink to. You don't know for sure. It depends on how decisively the government acts. When they acknowledge the problem and pull out the "heavy artillery," right? A large quantitative easing program. Will they wait until everything collapses, or will they realize at the beginning of the collapse what is coming and try to act in advance?
So, you do n't know. So my opinion is always the same: just hold on to your gold and silver. Don't worry if the price drops, because you don't sell them when the price drops. You hold them because you know that over time, not only will the price increase significantly, but they could become the very money we need.
This may be the only thing that will actually have purchasing power. When we have to buy goods or services from other people , it is quite possible that they will want to pay in gold or silver. They may not want the dollars. We don't know how much a dollar will be worth and whether people will be willing to exchange valuable goods and services for what may turn out to be worthless pieces of paper .
Gold and silver will always have value, so people will be willing to exchange equivalent value. They are simply unlikely to want to give up valuables for nothing. Well, and that's, you know, one of the reasons I'm developing my T-gold platform—to be proactive, so that when people own gold and we store it for them, we create a mechanism that makes it easier to use gold as a medium of exchange.
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