저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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8월 이후 CPI 상승률이 연율 환산 시 높고 근원 CPI도 예상을 상회해 인플레이션이 악화되고 있다고 주장. 워시 연준의 긴축은 말뿐이며 M2와 대차대조표는 오히려 확대되어 비둘기파에 가깝다고 평가. 금·은은 인플레 악재에 연준 긴축 우려로 하락했으나 이는 오히려 매수 기회라고 강조. 30년 고정 모기지 금리 상승으로 미실현 손실이 약 2조 달러 규모라며 금융 불안과 연준의 추가 양적완화 가능성을 제기. 달러 인덱스가 강세를 유지하는 점도 언급.
다듬은 글
Bad news for gold and silver. Let's take a look at the terrible numbers we got that should have pushed gold up hundreds of dollars an ounce this week. Well, why don't they multiply the monthly inflation figures by 12? So, inflation in the first 9 months of this year is worse than it was in the entire fourth year of Biden's presidency.
Trump sowed the seeds for this spike in consumer prices with his fiscal policies, the monetary policies that the Fed has pursued under Trump, along with radical left democratic socialists and a Democratic Congress. And you're better off buying gold and silver now, before investors realize what it means when the dollar falls, because the dollar index has held strong.
The dollar index is around 102, because again , currency traders don't understand these hot inflation figures. Well, what happens if you want to sell your mortgage? If you have a mortgage or mortgage-backed securities and they are yielding you 4.6%, while the market rate is 7.5%. All this bad news about inflation turned out to be bad news for gold and silver, according to traders, because they started selling them.
And again , the reason is that they perceive worse-than- expected inflation news as a sign that the Fed will have to act more aggressively. It will have to act very harshly in the fight against inflation. It will indeed raise rates and possibly shrink the balance sheet, and it is this fight against inflation that worries traders, so they are selling gold.
But if they really understood that higher-than- expected inflation figures didn't mean the Fed would fight it harder. This means that the Fed has already lost. Inflation won. This is what the numbers show. The markets still don't understand that even if the Fed raises rates two or three more times, it doesn't mean anything.
Inflation is accelerating much faster than the Fed is raising rates. Meanwhile, the Fed, especially Kevin Warsh, is just talking. Everyone considers him a tough fighter against inflation. He's like the reincarnation of Paul Walker. This is all nonsense. He has been the chairman of the Fed for 5 months.
And what did he do in those 5 months ? Raised interest rates by 25 basis points. Big deal. This doesn't mean anything. And he probably won't even raise them another 25 basis points until December. So what ? And look at the balance. The Fed's balance sheet is larger today than it was 5 months ago when he became Fed Chairman.
And the M2 money supply has grown by almost 6% annually over the past 5 months. These are not the actions of an inflation fighter, nor the actions of a "hawk." These are the actions of a "dove." So, Varsh is a "dove" in the sheep's clothing of a "hawk." Forget what he says, look at what he does. And soon enough, the markets will realize that he is only talking a lot but doing nothing to combat inflation.
But let's look at the terrible numbers we got. They should have driven the price of gold up hundreds of dollars an ounce this week if traders really understood inflation, interest rates, bond yields, and the Fed. But, fortunately for us, they do n't understand each other. They do n't understand anything.
And this means that SchiffGold customers get another opportunity to buy more gold and silver. Gold fell half a percent in a week. It closed at around 4145, although it should have risen. This is good news. You can buy more gold at a cheaper price because traders don't understand what will happen. Silver fell even more, so you got an even bigger gift.
Silver ended the week down about 3%, settling at $56.85. In fact, it dropped to 55 or so during the week. This is a great buying opportunity. Get silver below $60, especially with all the bullish news this week that traders are not properly understanding . I'll start with the least bad report, which came out on Wednesday, and I've already discussed it on my main podcast, but I want to mention it again.
This is the Consumer Price Index (CPI). These are all figures for September. So, in September, CPI increased by 0.6%. This is a significant movement in 1 month. But you know what's even more impressive is when you convert this into an annual figure. If we multiply this by 12, we get an annual rate of 7.4%.
This is huge inflation. They never discuss monthly figures in annual terms, as they do with GDP. When they report GDP, they always convert it to an annual figure. So , if quarterly growth was half a percent, they report 2% GDP growth. They multiply by four. So why don't they multiply the monthly inflation figures by 12?
Because they want the number to look as small as possible. So that you don't think, "Oh, that's only 6 tenths of a percent ." That's not so bad. Yes, but that's in one month. If this happens every month for a year, it would be 7.4%. And the annual base rate was 3.7%. Excluding food and energy, the figure was higher than expected as other bad news was forecast.
The core index rose 0.3—50% more than expected—and the annual core index rose 2.6%. And this turned out to be higher than the predicted 2.5%. This news caused gold to fall sharply in price. The bond market reacted in the same way. Although the bond market subsequently recovered, yields appear to have hit new highs due to this bad inflation news.
But, you know, when you hear Republicans talking about inflation now, they try to convince you that Trump has lowered the inflation rate so much. They point out that under Biden it was 9.1%, and under Trump it was only 3%, so Trump curbed inflation, and the problems are Biden's legacy, so we are doing great.
This is complete nonsense. Inflation is getting worse under Trump, not better. In the first 9 months of 2026, the consumer price index increased by 4%. There are still 3 months left until the end of the year . I am sure that inflation will reach 5% for the whole year. But even if we take this 4 % that we have now: for the entire year of 2024, Biden's last year in office, the consumer price index increased by 2.9%.
We already have 4%, and there are still 3 months to go. A year earlier, in 2023, inflation for the whole year was 3.4%. We have now exceeded this figure. So, inflation in just the first 9 months of this year is higher than it was in the entire fourth and entire third year of Biden's presidency. So how can you say that this is a fight against inflation when it is higher now than it was in 2024 or 2023 ?
Of course, it is not yet higher than the level of 2022, when it was 6.5%, or 2021, when it was 7%, but it will happen. I believe that next year, 2027, the consumer price index could increase by more than 7%, and this could happen again in 2028. When Biden was president, the highest level of the consumer price index was in the first year.
Each subsequent year of his presidency, the index was lower. With Trump, everything will be the opposite. Every year of Trump's presidency, the consumer price index will only get worse. I'm not saying Biden was a great president. No, he wasn't like that. He was a terrible president and his policies were inflationary, but so are Trump's policies.
But if you look at the numbers, under Biden we had 4 years of declining inflation. Under Trump, we will have 4 years of rising inflation, and I am confident that on average, over Trump's 4 years, the consumer price index will rise more than under Biden. And paradoxically, the reason Biden's first year was the worst—7%—is a consequence of Trump's monetary and fiscal policies in 2020.
Trump sowed the seeds for a spike in consumer prices with his fiscal policies and the monetary policies the Fed implemented while he was in power. So, Biden inherited this serious problem from Trump. Trump constantly talks about the inflation he inherited from Biden. Well, Biden inherited it from him.
I'm not saying that Biden, you know, hasn't added problems that will manifest themselves during Trump's presidency. Much of the inflation we will experience over the next few years can be attributed to Biden's policies. But Trump only made things worse with his big "beautiful" bill. And in fact, after the midterm elections, when Republicans are likely to lose the House of Representatives and the Senate, budget deficits will become even larger.
The reckless bills passed by the Democratic Congress will cause even more inflation than those passed by the Republicans, and Trump will sign them anyway . This will not be a political stalemate. Trump will sign them. In fact, the 2024 election was entirely focused on inflation, the cost of living, and the affordability crisis.
Well, the 2028 election will be about the same thing, only things will be even worse. Inflation will be a much bigger problem in 2028 than in 2024. In 2028, we will have a much deeper affordability crisis than in 2024. The entire election campaign will be about whose fault is it? Who will get charged ?
Republicans, of course. Although, they'll probably blame Biden anyway, right? You blame Biden for everything. But they will also blame the Democratic Congress. And, um, the Republicans will say, "Look, you see, the Democrats got elected, and look what happened to inflation. It skyrocketed. I told you so." Trump will say, "I warned you not to vote for Democrats.
It's all their fault." Right? So, Republicans will try to blame everything on the Democratic Congress. But Democrats, of course, will blame everything on Trump. So, it will just be a blame game. Everyone will point the finger at someone from the other party. And the public will have to decide. But, judging from experience, the party that controls the White House is usually blamed.
So the Republicans will remain extreme, and that is why I believe that in 2028 the Democrats will win a complete victory with the radical left democratic socialists and a Democratic Congress. And you'd better buy gold and silver now , before investors figure out what this means. So, if the budget deficit continues to grow regardless of which party controls Washington, depositors could pay for it through continued inflation.
Peter Schiff argues that competing spending plans risk exacerbating America's affordability crisis, though his predictions for the 2028 election remain speculative. The deeper investment question is whether fiscal discipline will improve enough to stabilize purchasing power, not which party will win the blame game.
Peter Schiff goes on to reveal why political promises may matter less than the debts left behind by both parties . Now, the problem, or the second problem, will be when the dollar starts to decline, because the dollar index is still holding steady. The dollar index is around 102 as currency traders once again fail to understand these hot inflation figures.
They think this means the Fed will continue to raise rates. It doesn't matter if they raise the stakes. The increases they are prepared to make are far from sufficient if inflation actually rises to the levels these figures indicate . Let's say we have 7%, 8 %, 9% inflation, and the Fed rate is 4.75% or even 5%.
Who cares? This is ridiculous. But a huge crisis is looming that will prevent the Fed from even completing the rate hike. They will probably have to lower their rates. We will probably have to launch massive quantitative easing, and that's because of what's happening in the bond market and the mortgage market.
A 30- year fixed-rate mortgage is currently at 7.5%. And a crisis is brewing in the mortgage market due to the losses that mortgage lenders are currently experiencing on paper . Think about it. There are currently over $8 trillion in fixed-rate mortgages outstanding with an average term of 25 years.
So, this is great for the borrower. The average coupon rate, or mortgage rate, on this more than eight trillion dollars of mortgage debt is 4.6%. This is an average. Of course, some people have it lower. Some have about three percent. Some have an interest rate of two to something. I myself have a rate of 3 and 3/8 on a house in Connecticut.
But on average it is 4.6. The current rate is 7 and 1/2. The dollar may remain strong as the financial system quietly accumulates interest rate risk. According to Peter Schiff, the more than $8 trillion in fixed- rate mortgages with average coupons of about 4.6% are becoming harder to value as new mortgage rates approach 7.5%.
This mismatch creates potential losses for lenders and pressure on credit markets. Although losses depend on the actual assets and conditions. For investors, the crucial risk is a policy shift if financial stress outweighs inflation concerns. Peter Schiff goes on to explain why the pressures in the mortgage market could force the Fed to make difficult choices.
What happens if you want to sell your mortgage? If you own a mortgage or mortgage-backed securities that yields 4.6% and the market rate is 7 and 1/2. You will not receive face value. You won't get 100 cents on the dollar. You will get a huge discount. Currently, unrealized losses at market valuation that lenders do not reflect but which exist are real losses.
Mortgage lenders—and that's mostly banks, but also insurance companies and, you know, funds—everyone who owns them is losing $2 trillion. dollars. And when mortgage rates go up another percentage point to 8 and 1/2, and they go up above 8 and 1/2, when they reach 8.5%, the unrealized losses will be $3 trillion.
dollars. And this without a single case of default. To put this into perspective: during all the years of the global financial crisis, say, from 2007 to 2010 in the US, total losses on defaulted mortgages that banks had to write off amounted to about $450 billion. This is a lot of money, but it is nothing compared to the 2 trillion that they are now "underwater " only on paper.
But there is another important comparison. Since the Fed cut interest rates to zero during the financial crisis, the value of all mortgages that had not defaulted has increased dramatically. Only 10% of mortgage loans defaulted. 90% continued to be paid. These mortgages have increased significantly in price because, you know, banks were borrowing from the Fed at almost zero interest and getting 4, 5, 6, 7% on these mortgages .
Therefore, the unrealized profit on the market valuation of the mortgage portfolio for mortgage lenders amounted to about 1.3 trillion. So the actual losses were much smaller, about a third of the market profits. So, mortgage lenders ultimately came out of the situation quite well. They made money from the rising value of mortgages that were paid on time.
A mortgage can lose market value even if each borrower continues to make payments on it. Peter Schiff emphasizes the difference between unrealized losses and actual defaults . His estimate of $2 trillion, which indicates the scale of the impact of interest rates, requires careful scrutiny and does not equate to the banks' immediate losses.
For depositors, the danger lies in how forced asset sales and lack of funding could turn paper losses into broader financial instability. Peter Schiff goes on to explain why current mortgage losses are different from the 2008 situation. Today, mortgage lenders are losing money on all their mortgages.
They are 100% losing money on mortgages that are making payments, and will lose money on those that default. And that's why defaults will occur. People can't afford to buy a home right now because mortgage rates are too high. And they will grow even more. When mortgage rates hit 9%, which they easily will unless the Fed launches a massive quantitative easing program to buy up mortgage-backed securities, what can they do?
But if mortgage rates are at 9%, a potential buyer, in order to afford a house that they could have purchased at a rate of 3% ...To have the same monthly payment, the price of the house would have to drop by 50%. That's how important mortgage rates are. A jump in mortgage rates from 3% to 9% could dramatically change what a household can afford.
This is where Peter Schiff's thesis moves from paper losses to the real economy. Expensive borrowing can weaken demand for housing, put pressure on prices, and increase the risks of default. A 50% drop in housing prices is his illustrative statement, not a universal mathematical result. Investors should simultaneously monitor mortgage rates, lending standards, and credit stress.
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