저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
금은 사상 최고가 근접(2% 이내)이고 지지선이 2900→3000으로 상향 중이라 금 및 금광주는 저가 매수 기회라고 주장. 비트코인은 금 대비로는 2021년 고점보다 낮아 가짜 돌파였으며, 전략적 비트코인 비축은 실현 불가능하고 고래 매도 위한 홍보였다고 봄. 미국 장기채는 경기 비관 때문에 금리가 내린 것이라 여전히 약세로 봄. 소비자신뢰지수 급락, 12개월 기대 인플레이션 6%, 경기침체 우려 증가로 스태그플레이션 진행 주장.
다듬은 글
Gold is no more than 2% less than 2% from its all-time record high. And Bitcoin is in a bare market, 20% below its record high. I mean, what does that tell you? And also, Bitcoin is lower today priced in gold than it was at its peak in 2021. I talked about that a lot on this podcast that even though Bitcoin was making nominal new highs, new highs in dollars, that it hadn't made a new high in gold.
And I said on this podcast, I thought there was a good chance that the high was in, that Bitcoin would never see a new high in terms of gold. I think the only reason that that was wrong was because Trump won. Had Trump not won the election, uh there's no way Bitcoin ever would have seen a 100,000. Before we continue to discuss this, please subscribe to our channel and activate the bell icon for timely update.
Gold. Gold was down today, right? Gold was down at one point. It was down like 60 bucks. But so what I mean, I don't even know. It barely got below um uh 29 2900. And in fact, it's you know, it's back above that right now. Big gold is trading at 2927. It's up about $12 in the evening. It was down about by the close maybe 3540 bucks.
Gold's now got support at 2900. That's basically it. The support level in case you haven't noticed keeps on going up for gold. And now it's like 2900. So if you get a break below 2900, you're getting a bargain. And soon 3,000 is going to be the support. But gold is no more than 2% less than 2% from its all-time record high.
And Bitcoin is in a bare market, 20% below its record high. I mean, what does that tell you? And also, Bitcoin is lower today priced in gold than it was at its peak in 2021. I talked about that a lot on this podcast that even though Bitcoin was making nominal new highs, new highs in dollars, that it hadn't made a new high in gold.
And I said on this podcast, I thought there was a good chance that the high was it, that Bitcoin would never see a new high in terms of gold. I think the only reason that that was wrong was because Trump won. Had Trump not won the election, uh there's no way Bitcoin ever would have seen 100,000, right?
So, I think that the high would have been in. But even though Trump was elected and even though we went to 100,000 109,000 today, Bitcoin is lower by about 10% than it was back in um in in 2021 because Bitcoin is only worth about 30 ounces of gold. When I say only, that's that's still a big number, right?
That's ridiculous that you can even buy 1 ounce that you could buy anything with a Bitcoin. But you can get 30 ounce of gold. But in uh November of 2021, you can get 34 ounces. So, it's down by 10%. And so, Bitcoin has broken back down. It was a false breakout in terms of gold. And again, the only thing I think that really uh got the the hype up there was all the talk about a strategic Bitcoin reserve, which I've said is never going to happen because Trump's not going to enact it on his own.
I don't think it's legal. Congress is never going to pass it. It was all just a bunch of hype to get people to buy so the whales could sell because there's some big selling going on that was able to overcome all of the buying from Micro Strategy. And not just Micro Strategy, there's a handful of other companies that followed that ridiculous playbook of Michael Sailor that also have been buying a hundreds of millions or billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin and putting it on their corporate balance sheets.
But despite all that, Bitcoin is in a bare market, which means even if they were thinking about a strategic Bitcoin reserve, that's dead. I mean, why would they do it now? This thing's in a bare market. It's free falling. You know how you going to buy that? If they actually did it, it would look like uh a Bitcoin bailout fund more than a strategic reserve.
Anyway, we got a quick commercial break. Don't go anywhere. Coming right back. Gold was down and a lot of people were saying, "Well, gold was down, too." See, it's just like Bitcoin. Yeah, gold is within 2% of its all-time record high. Nothing like Bitcoin. Gold is a buy. You want to buy the dip, that's the dip to buy.
Uh although the real dip to buy were the gold mining stocks, which again, they got hammered this morning. They were down 3 and 1.5% 4%, you know, cuz gold was down. Why? I mean, even though it was down, it's still 2900. The stocks are a steal. Now, they they they rallied back. They still closed down, but maybe about one and a half percent.
uh you know so you know they they recovered uh half more than half their losses but that's the dip to buy. I mean these stocks again I am looking for a ballistic move in in the gold stocks. Uh I don't know you know it could start any day. Market expert Peter Schiff remains bearish on long-term treasuries despite today's rally attributing it to optimism over potential rate cuts.
However, he argues that this optimism stems from economic pessimism pointing to worsening stagflation data. Treasury yields slid to their lowest levels of the year Tuesday as a recent parade of softening data suggested the US economy will require Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. Treasuries were trading near session highs late in New York with the 10-year yield lower by more than 10 basis points around 4.29% back at a mid December level and well inside January's peak of 4.8%.
Due to mounting economic uncertainty, consumer confidence took a sharp dive with inflation expectations surging to 6%. Shift further underscores rising recession concerns and the potential economic strain from Trump's tariff policies. Let's get back to the interview. We saw a pretty big rally in the long end of the Treasury market today.
Now, I don't think this is going to last. I am still bearish uh the long end of the curve despite the rally that we've seen today. Uh part of that was the result of some increased optimism on a another rate cut. So the markets are now expecting uh more rate cuts from the Fed. But what is prompting this optimism about the um rate cuts and rally in bonds and drop in bond yield is pessimism on the US economy.
And I have been talking about this and forecasting this for quite some time on the program. Uh on my podcast I did on Sunday night, I went over all of the stagflationary data that came out last week. Well, we've already got more of that confirmation, stagflation data that came out this week. Yesterday, we got the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey, which in January was actually a positive 14.1 and it collapsed to a negative 8.3.
That is a big drop. The production index went from 12.2 down to -9.1. But the news that came out today, I think was even more worrisome for the markets. And that was February consumer confidence, which collapsed. They were expecting 103 from an upwardly revised 105.3 in January, making the decline to 98.3 uh that much bigger.
It's the biggest decline in this survey in over 3 years. So, a big drop. And the main reason for the loss of confidence is inflation and concerns over rising inflation. In fact, the um expectation for 12 month inflation, so over the next year rose from the prior month 5.2% 2% which was already a high number all the way up to 6%.
So the public is expecting 6% inflation. Meanwhile, Pal is still claiming that expectations are well anchored at 2%. Whose expectations is he referring to when the surveys are showing that consumer expectations is three times as high, 6%. Also, the number of people who are expecting a recession to begin this year rose to now a 9-month high.
So, people are more concerned about the economy. They're more worried about inflation. Also, Trump is continuing to beat the tariff drum. Uh talking about how, you know, the tariffs with with Mexico and uh Canada, they're, you know, they're still on, right? They're coming in April. Maybe we're going to have tax tariffs on Europe.
So all of this weighing on confidence, weighing on the economy, uh raising the prospect of recession, which again I think we've been in recession.
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