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I had a whole like 18 minute video to break down CPI and retail sales and I'm like this is way too long let's be clear about what happened we got CPI that basically came in at the same lumpy expectations that the market had it led us to now price in 1.8 to about 2.0 rate cuts for the Year this isn't like screaming yay inflation is gone like it was at the end of last year when we had 6 months in a row of really bullish numbers uh but it's also not screaming this second wave is getting worse you're really being led by still those core services like car insurance but if you actually look in the details you're starting to see car parts used cars new cars those prices are coming down it'll be a matter of time for car insurance to come down it'll be a matter of time for those stupid I don't know why they do the math like this but owner equivalent rents to come down it's stupid we already know rent are basically flat to declining across the board it's all just a bunch of fugazi bull crap nonsense but look the reality is JP leaked what he was going to do today okay now let's talk about that I just have to remind you that first of all faay futur is like freaking doubled after we got some call options on it yesterday boom let's go from out of the money to in the money Trading Group uh linked down below or go to me kevin.com keep in mind I can't promise that every single trade is going to be a win I do my best every single day yesterday was a $60,000 day really really excited about that we got an awesome move on Faraday Futures today we'll see how the rest of trading goes today so I'm really excited about that uh so check that out coupon does expire tonight but JP look he made it clear yesterday he's like look inflation mixed bag we're going to need more than a quarter of data now he's kind of going into ah we need more than a quarter of data first it's uh one report doesn't make a trend then it's two don't make a trend then it's three don't make a trend well how many is it that's going to make a Trend obviously this inflation report really you know what it does for us it just says we're not going to get hikes cool not going to get hikes thanks JP we already knew that so is this like really Mega bullish for the interest rate sensitives no uh you know if we got under what we put in our Trading Group uh is we set ideas like if this then that for what the report would come in at and uh what we wrote is if inflation came in under 0.25 you want to go like Mega Bull on the interest rate sensitives we at three so we we we didn't get sort of that Mega bull level uh so you're not there then you got super weak retail sales uh you know with with basically negative retail sales to some of the categories we don't need to go through all the details you could go to ec.com and see them yourself but the point is the consumer is weakening that is still a factor everybody seems to forget that 72% of this economy is made up of a consumer China seeing it alibaba's complaining saying people have money but are are they willing to spend Starbucks and Walmart well Walmart's going to tell us tomorrow but Starbucks and McDonald's are telling us the answer is no now people are saying oh but people are moving to Value Kevin so just buy the stocks where there's value that's fine but if people show up less guess what happens they overall spend less and that's how you get a negative GDP two quarters in a row combined with joblessness you're in a recession that's why the yield curve is still inverted by 32 is Basis points uh and the reality is we're we're not out of the woods now is this bearish the report that we got today no not really it just sort of kicks the can down the road inflation expectations dropped to 2.3 on the 5 years so this it's just a kicker it's a kick down the road that's the bottom line here what it is kick down the road we didn't really get good Clarity and we're probably not going to get good Clarity until quite frankly the second half of this year JP's been saying that whether you believe him or not the reality is the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are at alltime highs right now alltime highs now if you adjust for inflation we're actually still like 8 points on the cu's off of alltime high so there's still like room to go which seems like remarkable incredible but it's true so still got room to go all on on growth on these but the volatile Nike Swoosh swoosh is continuing under the premise of well this isn't bad news yet so the party can keep going so I'm cautiously optimistic because I'm still concerned that housing inventory is going to explode prices are going to come down in certain areas esec especially Texas and Florida I think it's bad uh uh less so were you underbuilt during covid like California uh and and some of the blue States you know the ones everybody always bags on see everybody bagged on them and then they underbuilt on those areas and that could actually keep a you know floor under pricing it's like a support line uh but um you you know you've got some companies doing extremely well we we were just did an analysis on monday.com and the SAS business for them is absolutely killing it especially among small and medium businesses you've got uh again suffering on the consumer discretion Aries including what you would think would be more staple esque but that's not a surprise consumers are under pressure it's just a matter of time another big round of layoffs and you're potentially in a recession so I'm C cautiously optimistic if I had to put it on sort of like a percentage of where I am like zero is bare uh 10 is bull I'm probably like five and a half six right now like I'm I'm not Uber bull Uber bull is like March of 2020 we're going all in vshape recovery money printers coming on let's go baby uh lever lever me up give me margin uh you know and then there's there's um January of 22 which is I'm going cash right that would be your zero so I'm kind of like in in that middle range right now where I'm cautiously optimistic we don't want to go into recession we want to be bullish but we need this data to come in better and unfortunately it's just going to be another month we're lit that's that's the bottom line kick the C down the road another freaking month why well frankly you don't have any Catalyst left right now jobs June 7th okay well that's like three weeks away Nvidia a week from today okay well that doesn't tell us much about inflation yeah it'll affect the AI Market you know Dell's breaking out great they keep getting Morgan Stanley upgraded them based on momentum okay so now we have institutions upgrading stocks because the stock is going up sounds a lot like the Nicola days JP Morgan oh we're upgrading Nicola because it's a good story it's all it's all ludicrous maybe it's all rigged too I I don't know but uh what I do know is there is an expiring coupon code today that I know with certainty uh email us at staff of me kevin.com if you need to bundle up I think the next Catalyst June 7th you marked your calendar for that you marked your calendar for the expiring coupon code today you marked your calendar for NVIDIA on the 22nd uh mark your calendar for the 12th that's the next fed day and CPI day and uh I mean really sure we'll get like Walmart earnings but who cares uh we just have to wait now to see where are the layoffs no layoffs we could just keep slowly melting up dare I say the slow molasses level melt up in the market it could keep going and going and going and going anyway uh folks I really appreciate you thank you so much as always for being here and constantly supporting the channel a lot of folks have been asking how the family is really good if you haven't yet gone on Twitter you can go on Twitter you could see uh some of the family picks uh real meet Kevin or follow me on IG sometimes they post stories there uh or or just pictures but uh right now you could find this one on uh on X you know Twitter uh take a look at this we got Violet uh she was born 22 24 then you've got summer right here look how tiny she is this one right here summer and violet are identical they are identical twins uh now they don't necessarily look exactly identical because they um well one of them weighs like 7 pounds and the other one weighs like 10 lbs you know this one's you know 40% behind she's got a little work to do she's got some catching up to do so uh she's still on a feeding tube as well it's disconnected for the photo uh then you've got uh she does feed by bottle as well it's just sort of supplement it then you've got uh Ella uh everybody says she looks like Jack then you've got uh Claire right here and then the only boy of the batch of five right here is Jay uh yeah we did uh people always ask about the timing too we did have a little timing oopsie we did not mean to have five this close together uh the like basically we're supposed to have two like two years apart from the other two so it sort of like two and then two years later two um let's just say there was a big oopsy dupsies and then uh there was a spitzy dupsies which made uh two babies turn into three hence the identical uh but uh as a result we have uh you know beautiful summer and violet and Jay and Ella Claire so now we just got to dress them all up in house Haack shirts which um uh the subscriber was was so generous to uh send me a bunch of those so we're going to we're going to do that we're going to send them up or dress them up in those and we'll have to post a new picture so anyway thank you so much folks uh good luck out there uh I think uh cautiously optimistic the Melt up continues and um I guess no news is good new
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