저자: RakeshJhunjhunwala · 외국인
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현재 금융자산 버블 우려. 미국 저금리·완화적 통화정책과 장기 강세장에 대한 불안감을 표명. 글로벌 금리 마이너스 환경과 소매 투자자 과열을 경고. 트레이딩은 대부분 손실이며 권장하지 않는다는 입장. 단, 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
right and the need for growth and the need to meet his obligation so high in his opinion they are using methods which are not sustainable which is basically easy monetary policy right at the same time I mean if I were Yen I would I would justify this interest rates because the purpose of my mandate is maximum employment and control inflation so as long as inflation is below 2% right and there is employment growth then why the hell should I raise interest rates so never in the world have you seen such easy monetary policy and such slow inflation so I think all this brings out a big ma manner of uncertainty according to people third thing is what a bull market now for 35 years right I I think I in my opinion you know I bought Crystal shares CU I Mark Fe said that 177% of the US economy or GDP was Financial Services in India it was 6% if there ever was a company which will grow with financial services growth in India it would be Crystal according to me but now again in America financial services coming to 17 18% of GDP the German bond is minus 25 business Mars it is predicted in in the consensus is that earnings growth and sales will grow down by 5% in China China has got huge unused steel and cement capacity right so I don't understand the the boom comes in China when the when the economy is dwindling whe the whe the earnings are going down the markets didn't go up when the profits are going up you have huge retail participation you have negative interest rates you have a 35y old bull market you have economic situation in the world which you've never seen so this give me a very feeling of uneasiness that how is this going to Happ and what's going to happen is unpredictable and I don't think that you can keep on raising asset values just on the basis of interestes I mean you you are forced to invest in assets today because I'm told deposit rates in in Singapore are2 basis points you want to have a deposit in SS Franks you get Negative interest rates so what I'm basically pointing out is that we had a 33 year old bull market in financial assets or in all assets right I don't know how long this party can continue There is uncertainty there's no question about it I I feel it could continue for the next 10 years and it could blow up in the next 12 months also we don't know and Stanley drma made a very you know there's a note if you have a Bloomberg you going beautifully written then 200 the the real crisis of 2008 started when in 2004 even after the US economy started growing Mr what was his name he did not raise interest rates which finally led to the subprime crisis right and see there's a lot of beliefs and especially this generation has never seen a real bare Market you know they presumed Mr the last Ben banaki said that there will never be housing price in America because housing price never come down in America so we cannot believe that that which is never happen is never going to happen I don't know I get this dirty feeling that this party in financial assets will not last for very long what do you say difference between investing and trading well I trade myself but I can tell you one thing if 10 lakh trade 9 lakh 99,900 they made money and 9 lak 99,900 are lying 990 said they make money 90 have made 9 let me tell you and you will say don't forget that so the question is see what is Trading you are trying to get a return on Capital what are you doing trading you're leveraging Capital if you have one you're trying to take a position of 100 so sir I think there are very few people who are lucky enough to be able to do that on a consistent basis and you know it it then and greed over towards you and you cannot take a loss first if you take a loss it's too big right so I don't know I think there could be a lot of skillful Traders but I would advise trading well see as as I explain what are you trying to do in trading you are trying to get a return on cap you're trying to use Capital which is 10 to 15 to 20 times your own Capital right and what happens NSE margin share so what happens you're not using Capital only the cash margin matters then you lose Lo money or to sell the shares so as a rule I would say don't trade of course and even if you want to trade remember one thing three principles only I have a broad idea of Direction don't be an expert right know what to St and know when to take a loss







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