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let's cut across to Barclays in their conference where Tommy really is in conversation with Mark Mobius and we'll talk about the Indian economy going forward all right so kudos to you on that what do you think do you think that the story can go on that 13,000 definitely would be a reality for the Nifty building on gains that we made this year into 2018 as well definitely there's no question that we're gonna continue this trajectory and that's true not only of India but of emerging markets generally because if you look at the emerging markets index the global index we are still below that 2017 2007 high so 20 17 27 we're in a situation where we've got to break through the 27 number and I believe we will probably go beyond that by about 20 percent that's my calculation Wow but tell me you know I again recall that conversation primarily because you said a couple of factors would push India higher from here you know which would get captured in the Indian markets move and that is full implementation with GST and pickup in earnings because of that where are we in terms of what you've seen as far as GST implementation goes and what do you make of the earnings cycle there's no question that GST implementation has been very complex and we just heard from the principal advisor to the economy it's great that they put it in place and now they have to fix it they have to get it implemented and there's no question that there's a lot of complications particularly in the service sector I believe the different categories of tax are much too complex hopefully they'll simplify that but probably the most interesting and important factor now is the behavior of the individual states because the move by Lodi to put more and more power in the hands of the local states at the local level is going to have a very beneficial effect on I'll be going forward and there'll be tremendous differences from one state of the other you're going to see some states surging ahead some not doing so well but overall it will be a very very beneficial impact to have that kind of state-level attention right but when you see that you know the transition to GST and its full implementation resulting in earnings because I remember you'd mentioned that by FY 19 you see earnings picking up to eighteen twenty eighteen to twenty percent right now there's a big lag there we are still struggling with breaking past ten percent you know every year we start off with fifteen sixteen percent on earnings projections and then we scale it back and the reality turns out to be you know a an eight to nine percent kind of range that's the average you must remember there are a lot of laggards but the good companies are growing at least 20% and maybe even more and I believe that's what you are looking at you've got to look at those companies that are really leading the economy and growing at the pace that they should be going which it you know given the fact that the economy is going at this pace the company should be doing at least double and even triple that rate no but the average baseline do you still keep your view that fi 19 will capture the full effect of GST you know and that will reflect in earnings growing at 18 to 20 percent you keep that view do you still hold on to that range yes I do but again as I mentioned there'll be a loud language so that the average maybe pull down let's put it this way if you did the average based on market capitalization yeah you probably get closer to 15 16 17 18 percent level okay let's talk about India's growth potential all right we have seen the numbers at a bottom at 5.7 the last print has come in at 6 points tree what kind of sustainable growth trend you expect from India I think they you're gonna say an accelerating trend and we're already beginning to see that you know as a result of the reforms that have taken place so 10 percent growth is in the cars there's no question that this would be acheived again going forward and I think a lot of the impact of the urbanization of the economy will push this number forward in other words you're going to see this acceleration in the economy and most importantly I believe is if the government is able to implement a privatization program which is meaningful and aggressive in other words particularly in the if you look at the infrastructure sector more and more privatization railways power roads bridges etc etc this has to be very aggressively done because that will push forward the economic growth of the country and more importantly it will draw in capital Italy it'll mobilize capital at a faster pace that we're seeing now right do you think India among emerging markets after this run up as well continues to be in value zone because I remember a reason you put out a note saying that for the emerging market world you see the 12-month forward p/e yet roughly about 12 and a half 13 times compared to 17 times for developed markets and you see the 12-month EPS growth standing at about 13 13 and a half times versus ten ten and a half time ten sorry thirteen thirteen and a half percent versus a ten ten and a half percent for developed markets does that put India's still in a value zone because many believe the markets are stretched at 2021 times so I know the long term bull market might be intact but could there be an intermediate correction you must remember that it's true that the valuations of the Indian stocks are higher than the emerging market average but the reason for that is that people are factoring in the growth rate that they see going forward so when they're valuing an Indian company they're saying okay this company's gonna be growing at 2030 percent going forward and therefore we're gonna upgrade our valuation so that's what you say but you know at some point the mom is you know one would believe that there would be a point where money must be taken off the table I mean look at Bharathi it's a compounding story and it continues to go higher and higher and it just makes me wonder that you know even at what nine thousand rupees per share is Marzian value zone because you bide at any point and you're able to generate returns for your investors well we're looking over here we're looking at five years from now not now okay and you must remember him when we look at these markets we should not be pessimistic for the simple reason that we haven't reached the euphoric stage markets died on euphoria but we haven't reached that yet it's similar to the Bitcoin situation yeah I really talked about that people people not euphoric yet yeah wait'll they become euphoric then we can see the end of the bull market yeah in fact you actually made that comment recently that markets peak out on euphoria and this is a skeptical bull market so I think there's more Headroom here let's talk about the big Moody's upgrade that came in for India what does it really mean for the country it means a lot because it means that you know the mines in New York and London are saying gee India looks a heck of a lot better than we thought and we're gonna upgrade and it's going to become a less risky story or bond investors and also of course this lapse over into equity investors yeah so it's it's very good it's very positive the immediate plus that most were expecting you know this development to bring by is more accessibility to cheaper funds by Indian corporate specially infrastructure companies would it convince global investors that the risk associated with these businesses would perhaps you know reduce if they were to bind to some of these countries there's no question I mean these investors are basing their investment decisions on the Moody's S&P and all the other rating agencies of opinion so there's no question that more money will come in if the conditions are correct in other words that's that's the big question mark if the government makes it easy for people to come in and make those investments with the proper guarantees in terms of contract right so you know what what are foreign investors were you looking at because I know that the cry for money when it comes to investment infrastructure projects is just getting louder and louder over the numbers getting bigger and bigger what can the government see or do to convince foreign investors that look your copy will be protected number one the contracts that are negotiated with these companies in any infrastructure project has to be guaranteed hopefully by a multilateral agency because then it gives the foreign investor some sense that you know they're not going to be happy in the situation where the contract has changed so that's number one number two the ground has to be prepared for example if you're going to build a road we have to get the land in place the government has to do that job the private company can't do it and if it's delayed if this process is delayed then this becomes a very expensive proposition because this is the advantage that the Chinese have they can say look we will need this space get out and that's in India doesn't work that way but if this is something the government has to work on it has to be make it easy for pathways to be made so that people can make these investments safety other than that the investors willing to take the risk for the actual project yeah the profitability of the projects that's something that they're willing to risk but they don't want to take the political risk and the clearance risk you leave right away risk okay let's talk about the banking sector in India what did you make off the PSU bank recapitalization plan it's great in dollars given that you know I was reading them now the numbers keep wearing but you know you're talking about a bad loan pile of any of you bean 150 to 200 billion dollars I think that's what the number that mr.
hare could have recently highlighted or stated as you know being the pile of bad loans in the banking system is that enough is thirty two billion enough it's it's more as a percent of GDP no question about that and it's it's significant enough to get the banks moving in the right direction I think it's enough it's just about enough but you must remember the government program is based on course money coming from the budget but also money being raised by the banks themselves so with the upgrade they will be able to attract more capital from domestic investors and also overseas so I think the the government input will be a very small percent of what actually was raised in the market okay I have to tell our audience out here that in a same time last year actually when we had that conversation in October of 2016 you had mentioned to me that you see value in psu banks and you may have gotten it right because we saw a big spurt in perhaps the biggest rally intraday rally that we saw in these stocks in in history do you think that now is a time where psu banks can actually take off biggest allocation in india's the banks so the banking sector but banking sector psu banks yes okay those are the biggest and the most liquid so yes that's the other entry point right the allocation really comes in into the SBI's and the bank of Rhoda's from the banking space but this is really about setting the banking sector right this is about fixing the banking sector issue like so where do you stand on that story so we're now more bullish on the public sector banks when I talk to you what you're at two years ago we were more interested in the private sector banks like Federal Bank these now we're more positive as a result of this reform on the public sector banks so you would be going over weight on psu banks and across the board yes where does it leave the story for PSU Bank consolidation because you know skeptics believe that all of the banks would not be able to wriggle out of their issues very easily and so the path ahead would be you know the strongest Bank survive and perhaps they take the weaker banks into their fold I think that's good it's definitely going to happen they're probably you too many banks too many small banks and the you as he consolidation coming particularly with the new rules with the new examination of these banks to adhere to the these new rules you're going to probably see some of this consolidation taking place which will be good for the system the day okay so recently and I just then move on to you know your global market outlook but recently somebody asked you if you had $100,000 where would you invest that money across asset classes you know all over the world I would say if I were to give you not me well if you were to have $100,000 to invest in India where would you invest and why the place where I would invest it those states where things look bad there are a number of states in India which now have fallen behind they haven't they don't have the growth rate that they're like some of the other faster growing states so I would probably look at those states to begin with because I think the government policies are going to begin to infiltrate into those slower growing states and there'll be opportunities and we'll be able to find cheap stocks in those places now some of this would have to be private equity but that's the place where I would begin to look and what about the expensive consumer names in terms of sectors I would say consumer oriented sectors because even an evaluation even at these valuations because don't forget at these valuations the large cap stocks can be expensive but some of the small cap stocks are very interesting so that's what we would look okay how does India stack up against other emerging markets you know form from from a perspective of looking attractive for foreign investors like you said it's not really in the cheap zone but it's not very expensive either when you look at the emerging market world how do you position India currently let's remember if you look at the emerging markets world it's China and India those are the big boys in the block so you've got to be exposed to both of those countries then along the way you'll have you know something in Brazil because Thailand or some of the Southeast Asian countries look interesting in the frontier markets Vietnam is very interesting and of course a number of African countries but if you look at the totality of where we are India and China really the ones where we have to be exposed now China has become quite big in terms of its waiting weight even if you're not looking at index in terms of you know where you can buy China is very big 26% plus so what we see is India coming up much faster and equaling China in their waiting but that will require much more equity coming into the Indian market more privatizations because at this stage it's not enough to go around one of the reasons why you have this high valuation is because the choices are somewhat limited so that's what we see going forward but your 2017 has been such a great year for world equities dr.
Mobius how do you foresee that trade playing out you know 2018 do you think that and you know in 2017 every everybody's down well right you have emerging markets which have done well you have the developed world which is performed Powell the trade panner or how will the equation work out into 2018 well the bias be I think the bias will so be with the emerging markets I think emerging markets will still be surging ahead and outperforming in the short term I mean you might see a few months where emerging markets underperforming the developed countries but at the in in terms of the one-year two-year three-year framework you will see emerging markets outperforming and I believe this will continue through 2018 and 2019 2020 because of the growth rates are there you must remember that we have very high growth rates the average growth rate in emerging markets is about 4 percent now that includes a lot of deadbeats a lot of countries that are growing at all that's true and it's a 4% average compared to let's say 2% for the developed countries the good news is that the u.s.
is doing pretty well and now Europe is coming in so this helps the overall picture and actually boosts emerging markets as well you know you're painting a picture perfect in other eyes are there gonna be no risks we're getting into 2018 I still remember that when we were getting into 2017 the world was a little bit wary about okay how will the retyping cycle in the u.s.
pan out what would that mean for global liquidity conditions what would the balance sheet unwinding by the Fed again you don't mean for world markets what will happen with the bond markets which are seeming overextended right now is there a bubble brewing there but sitting out here in you know as we step into 2018 one is like looking for risk factors but they aren't any yes North Korea fires in the style every odd week and that's an area of concern but you know that also as a risk factor is now kind of dwindle because everybody believes it so there's a lot of talk there then you know then action per se this is more rhetoric in something that can translate into reality so what are the risks there is a risk with North Korea because I believe that the US administration will want to take some action some military action like shooting down one of the missiles that they put up this could create a real massive correction in the markets globally but it could happen this is logging on the Nifty you may perhaps tying this to you must remember you have an administration in the u.s. that wants to act want to do something you see what's happened
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