저자: Löweninvest채널진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
빌 애크먼이 우버 주식 3,030만 주(약 20억 달러)를 매수했다고 트윗해 주가가 약 12% 급등. 우버는 2024년 4분기 실적이 호조(EPS 3.21달러, 매출 119억 달러로 예상치 상회), 2020년 대비 매출 5배 성장 전망, FCF 증가가 근거로 제시됨. 현재 P/CF 약 21배, S&P500 평균 PER 28.5배 대비 저평가로 보고, DCF상 적정가치가 현재가보다 약 20% 높다고 주장. 자율주행은 위협이 아니라 파트너십 기회라고 봄.
다듬은 글
Bill Egman just announced that he bought 30 million Uber shares worth $2 billion, and Uber's stock immediately jumped 12%. Bill Egman is one of the world's most famous investors, and after this latest purchase, Uber is likely now the largest holding in his $15 billion portfolio. The great thing is that Egman didn't just announce his Uber share purchase; he also explained his reasons for investing now.
In recent months, there has been a lot of speculation surrounding Uber and the potential disruption of its business by autonomous vehicles. Furthermore, it was only a few days ago that the company released its quarterly results for the last quarter of 2024. So, there's been a lot going on at Uber, and in this video, we'll take a closer look at what Bill Egman has to say about Uber and his reasons for buying the shares.
I 'll also reveal whether or not I currently think Uber stock is worth buying. Let's get started, and first, let's look at the tweet. In it, Bill Ckman announced his latest purchase, and yes, Bill Ckman actually announced via Twitter that he bought shares of Uber. The tweet and the subsequent price movement are somewhat reminiscent of when Elon Musk tweeted photos of his dog and DXG Coin went through the roof.
But what does Bill Ckman say about Uber? He writes that he started collecting Uber shares in January and now owns 30.3 million shares. We've already established that point, but further down it gets interesting. He mentions that he has been a customer of Uber for a long time and is happy to have been one of the first investors in Uber, back then through a small investment in a Venture V.
The company has always been great, he writes, but suffered greatly under the old management, which Bill Ckman describes as eratic, meaning unpredictable. The new CEO, Dara Kosrovsai ( I hope I pronounced the name correctly), has completely transformed the company and turned it into a profitable and cash-generating growth machine.
And as far as growth is concerned, he hasn't even... While it's true that the stock has risen by 86% in the last 5 years, let's get back to the tweet and the part that I believe is responsible for the rapid price increase. Bill Egman also says that Uber is one of the best-managed companies with the highest quality worldwide.
Wow, such words from a man who manages a fortune of over 15 billion dollars are quite something! But it gets even better. Bill Egman also says that the stock can still be bought at a massive discount to its intrinsic value, meaning the stock is still trading significantly below its intrinsic value. So, I somehow have the feeling that Bill Egman is bullish on Uber, or what do you think?
But I'll try not to get completely swept up in the euphoria and now want to take a closer look at Uber's valuation. First, let's look at the quarterly figures, and we rarely get them this up-to-date. Just a few days ago, Uber released its figures for the last quarter of 2024, and as we can already see in the headline, it was the strongest quarter ever.
Earnings per share in 2024 were $3.21, significantly exceeding estimates of $2.73. Revenue in Q4, at $11.9 billion, also surpassed estimates of $11.76 billion, and profit for 2024 reached $9.8 billion, compared to $1.8 billion in January 2023. This is hardly surprising given the figures. The number of bookings for both riling and Uberids also increased significantly.
In short, Uber improved all significant figures, exceeding analysts' forecasts, in some cases considerably. However, we want to examine some of the key figures and ultimately their valuation in more detail to understand why, according to Bill Cckman, the stock is trading so far below its intrinsic value.
We've already seen that revenue increased last year, and the following chart shows that growth last year was not an exception but the rule. In 2020, Uber generated a respectable $11 billion in revenue. Revenue of $57 billion is expected in 2026, representing a fivefold increase. So we can definitely tick off the revenue growth box.
Below that, we see the profit. As is quite typical for a growth company, Uber was n't profitable in its early years and incurred losses in the billions. However, things have improved significantly since 2023, when the company began generating profits, considerably more than projected. The blue bar represents the estimate, while the black bar shows the final earnings per share.
But when we look at earnings per share, we're particularly interested in how it will develop in the future. Looking at the profit forecasts for the coming years, we see only double-digit growth rates well into 2034. So we can also tick off the profit growth box. Besides profit and revenue, Uber is also managing to increase its free cash flow.
As I didn't mention earlier in the quarterly figures, free cash flow has more than doubled year-over-year, and management expects it to... Cash flows can continue to increase by 30 to 40% per year until 2026; this also explains why Bill ckman spoke of a cash flow machine. The cash flow yield is currently just under 5%.
Given the rapid growth and optimistic outlook, one would expect the stock to be correspondingly highly valued, or the price-to-cash-flow ratio is roughly 21. The price-to-free- cash-flow ratio is slightly over 22. For a company that increases revenue by 20% and free cash flow by 30% annually, this is absolutely not much; quite the opposite.
The same applies to the forward P/E ratio, which is 21.86 for the next 12 months. The average P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is significantly higher at 28.5. I also ran several discounted cash flow (DCF) models that reflect the intrinsic value of a stock, and these also arrive at a fair value for the stock that is higher than the current 20%.
This represents the upset potential according to DCF. So there are really good arguments that Uber's stock is still undervalued even after the small run we've seen. However, what we mustn't forget with all these figures is the business model itself, because the best numbers are useless if the... If a company doesn't have a competitive advantage somewhere, I would call it a moat, and in my opinion, Uber has such a moat.
Even though the quarterly figures were really good, as we've seen, Uber's stock did n't rise before Bill Egman's announcement; instead, it fell. There's a very simple reason for this, and it has nothing to do with the figures, but rather with Uber's business model. In recent weeks and months, there has been much speculation that autonomous vehicles could disrupt Uber's business.
Tesla and, in particular, a subsidiary of Alphabet, were frequently mentioned. Just a few weeks ago, they announced that they would be putting their autonomous vehicles on the streets of many cities by 2025. In theory, this is certainly a legitimate concern. If you can be driven around by self-driving cars, why would you still book an Uber?
What's often forgotten, however, is that Uber has something that, for example, Tesla or other companies don't: a huge network that many customers and drivers already use. To be precise, Uber already has over 170 million users. It is precisely within this network that Uber's moat lies, giving the company a huge advantage.
And indeed, Uber is already collaborating with manufacturers of autonomous vehicles by offering rides in the manufacturers' autonomous vehicles via its app. Incidentally, Uber's often-mentioned competitor Wayo is one of Uber's partners. With new technologies, it's not always about who creates the technology, but above all about how the technologies are used, or rather, which companies are currently using technologies like AI most effectively and efficiently.
Therefore, I see more advantages here if autonomous driving continues to grow, as it will open more doors for Uber in terms of partnerships with those vehicle manufacturers. Besides the high future growth potential, the fact that autonomous driving isn't necessarily a threat but can also be an opportunity isn't yet fully reflected in Uber's current share price.
That's why I share Bill Egman's opinion, who says that Uber is a company with enormous quality that is still available at a discount. But what do you think? Let me know in the comments what your opinion is on this exciting company. And if you liked the video, please leave a like and subscribe to the channel. Thanks for watching, and until next time, bye!
Comments 0