저자: Kevin · 외국인
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델타 변이 확산으로 항공·호텔·외식 등 리오프닝 수혜주의 여행 수요가 꺾이고 있다고 진단. 항공편 수 감소(일일 약147만명, 7일평균 하락), 신규 예약 둔화·취소 증가, 호텔 객실료 하락, 사무실 점유율 하락(34.3→31.3), 접촉 직업 구인 감소를 근거로 제시. 연준 테이퍼링이 11월 이후로 밀릴 수 있다고 봄. 개인적으로는 회복주 매수를 기다리는 입장이며 저점 재이탈 가능성을 언급.
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remember to check out that expiring coupon code linked down below august 31st jack's birthday does mean prices start going up again hey everyone me kevin here is it time to buy the dip yet when it comes to recovery stocks well let's take a look at some of the latest data and see is this the worst that it's going to get or is this just the beginning let's start with airline travel first the number of people traveling through airports has started to plummet in fact 1.47 million individuals took flights on tuesday that's the fewest amount of people who have taken trips in the last three months now it's also worth noting that the seven day average is down to 1.67 million down from 2 million just a month ago now part of this could be because of the end of summer you do tend to get a deceleration of air travel at the end of summer because well vacation time's over right but there's also and this is reported from bloomberg through airlines and travel reservation companies that there's a deceleration in the number of new bookings which generally you would start seeing for the fall and winter and you're seeing a deceleration of those and you're seeing an increase in cancellations and so bloomberg and the airlines believe this is directly attributable to the covet take a look at this particular chart here what you want to look at is the blue line the blue line shows you the number of travelers traveling a per day and the white line is compared to last year a little harder to read that one but you could clearly see this red arrow here and this sort of inflection point of daily travelers on or getting on airplanes and so i'm always looking for okay you know is this is this the bottom are we going to bounce off of this is does this mean it's time to buy we'll look at particular stocks in just a moment but it's also worth noting that restaurants right now are 10 to 11 below their 2019 levels not so surprised here i would expect to see uh you know restaurants taking a little bit of time to get back to 2019 levels i would also uh expect to see some form of decline after this this original burst of reopening which this summer really has felt in my opinion like this burst of reopening and remember what jerome powell told us like him or not i think he had a good point when he said once we reopen we might have this burst of people going out again and then people going all right all right i did my going out again i'm still going to go out but maybe not as much as when i first started going out again it's like we open up it's like i'm going back out every day and then it's like ah okay let me maybe go back to what i had previously so then we're also seeing hotel data decline so the average room rate decline uh or average room rates have gone down so prices have gone down for the last three weeks this is worse than the typical seasonal decline that we're seeing this is what the hotel industry is saying they're calling this a chill on travel caused by delta we're also seeing a decline in job postings for jobs that require close contact this would include particular jobs like child care or even dental offices dental offices seeing a decline or rather a decline in job postings so you can see this here industries sensitive to covets such as child care and dentistry have seen a nearly seven percent decline in average job postings in recent weeks a lot of this again being attributed to delta and the expectation is that this hiring drop could continue into industries like airports hotels restaurants that we'll start seeing slower hiring there and that if we start seeing slower hiring at hotels airlines restaurants then potentially that unemployment rate could stay higher longer which if it stays higher longer we don't get that drop after the unemployment benefits go away in september then maybe we don't taper yet as soon and basically the punch bowl at the free money party might continue longer in other words drum powell printing the money printer could last longer which yesterday we talked about how it's possible jerome powell might not raise rates i'm sorry not raise rates might not suggest or or begin tapering until november and these sorts of high frequency data could reiterate waiting until november or who knows if if we end up having a covert winter could end up pushing us into next year for a taper which i think would lead to some euphoria in the stock market throughout the rest of the year here now israel right now regarding vaccinations is no longer considering people vaccinated unless they have three shots that is they've gotten their booster shot we're seeing uh office occupancy so this is something else it's gonna be another barrier to seeing that herd immunity right we're seeing office occupancy down we're seeing uh bookings according to open table at restaurants down office occupancy let's hit this here we've got uh take a look at this this is office occupancy we're seeing a plummet in office occupancy here i don't know if you could really call it a plummet but the rate of change is certainly accelerating to the downside here we're down from 34.3 at the end of july to a uh reading around 31.3 in the middle of august here so that's just a three week period here and we're seeing a substantial decline in the amount of people going back to offices which less people go into office means more maybe doordash and less restaurants right so you sort of get this compounding effect a lot of folks obviously talking about delta regarding this which if we go to the delta tracker we are starting to see a little bit of a peak when it comes to let's go to this screen right here when it comes to hospitalizations it's almost like we've hit a peak here and an inflection point in hospitalizations all these different lines are different age groups seeing a little bit of that curve beginning here on hospitalizations which is good but then again we are just going into winter time here now i did think this was weird this is uh the open tables website rankings and uh going into august here we've actually seen a little bit of an explosion here so a little bit of conflicting data here on and so part of me is wondering are we just seeing lagging data here of a decline of this delta fear is delta actually going to slow down our recovery this winter or people over it it's worth noting that ccl had its recent bottom here at the end of july which is really right before delta fears started picking up it's almost like the market priced in delta here and now we've had a recovery on carnival cruise lines here hitting higher highs higher lows which are very very nice trend here nice channel we've got with carnival cruise lines which remember if you ever want to learn about trading stocks investing money check out my programs linked down below we've got a coupon code jack's birthday august 31st 40 off uh expiring and then pricing goes up every time so take a peek at that let's go look at uh aal here let's look at american airlines american airlines you know we've had a little bit of a bottom here also around that july 20th period another one around august 20th here it's trying to get a little bit of a recovery here let's go to cake just to compare see uh okay cheesecake coming off this bottom here also around august 20th so you know it makes you wonder is the stock market trying to start pricing in a recovery early here or is the high frequency data that we're seeing just the beginning of delta really taking effect now personally i'm inclined to wait on buying into recovery stocks i personally believe that you know winter time is going to be somewhat ugly for delta what we're seeing in the south in florida and texas and other areas along the south because of people going inside and getting air conditioning from the heat i think we're going to see in the northeast the northwest as we go into the winter i think that's definitely going to weigh on air travel we have not seen a bottom yet in this trend to the downside and people working from home this trend of airline reservations slowing down air travel slowing down so unfortunately i i don't think we're through the thick of this yet and i think we might see lower lows on all of the recovery stocks particularly hotels airlines restaurants and the travel ones macy's still kicking butt blows my mind but i think it's too soon to get in on the recovery yet i don't think we've seen the worst of delta just yet which knock on wood i hope that we have seen the worst but i want to know from you what do you think personally i'm going to stay away from recovery but i want to hear from you have we already priced in delta is this it does anybody actually care in the stock market about delta let me know s well and folks we'll see in the next one you
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