저자: UrbanJäkle · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 스탠리 드러켄밀러의 포트폴리오를 소개하며, 쿠팡(Coupang)을 주요 매수 종목으로 소개하는 영상이며 진행자 본인도 보유 중이라고 밝힘. [투자자 소개] 드러켄밀러는 조지 소로스의 제자이며, 1년 23%, 3년 29%, 5년 61%, 10년 272% 수익률을 언급. [포트폴리오 주요 종목] 쿠팡 최대 포지션, 엔비디아 저점 매수 후 급등, 마이크로소프트 비중 축소 후 재매수, 엘리스(일라이 릴리 계열 언급), 프로젝트 성격의 식품주, 원자재주 비중 확대, 방산 민간기업(트럭 앤 밀라 등) 매수, 구글 매도 후 재매수, 아마존 이익실현 후 재매수. [쿠팡 분석] 2021년 상장, PSR 1.43으로 아마존(2.5)보다 낮음, 2023년 1분기 애널리스트 예상 대비 20% 상회 실적 언급, 빌 게이츠 재단 투자 언급. 단기 경기침체 우려로 주가가 눌려 있어 경기 회복 시 상승 가능성 제시. [펀더멘털 전략] 모멘텀과 낮은 PSR 조합이 효과적이라는 연구 인용, 해당 방식 연 17% 수익률 주장(미국 전체 13%). [거시 전망] 장기적으로 금융억압(재정 부담 → 인플레이션) 시나리오, 장기적으로는 주식이 금·채권보다 우월하다고 봄. 단기적으로는 시장이 다소 과열, 헤지펀드 주식 비중이 높아 조정 가능성 언급. 이번 주 연준 금리 회의에서 추가 인상 예상, 연말엔 인상 둔화 또는 일시 정지 전망. VIX 하락 후 계절적으로 가을 변동성 확대 가능성 언급. [결론] 투자 추천 아님을 명시하며, 진행자도 해당 주식을 보유하고 있다고 고지.
다듬은 글
Good day, I welcome you to a new video. Today we'll look at how the star investor Stanley Dragon Miller invests. Below we see his performance: in one year he earned 23%, in the last three years 29%, in five years 61%, and in ten years 272%. I think the numbers speak for themselves. Good day, my name is Urban Jäckle.
If you want to see more videos, don't forget to subscribe to the channel in the bottom right corner. And we'll get right to these topics. So, we'll look at how Stanley Dragon Miller invests and also why he does it that way. We'll examine his largest position, Coupon, and then we'll take a look at the long-term situation on the stock markets.
But let's get straight to the short-term situation with Stanley Dragon Miller. Who is he anyway? He's a student of George, that famous speculator. The speculator who, among other things, helped bring down the British pound in the 90s. Did I say too much? But he was right that they would be kicked out of the currency union in 1993.
He then also speculated in Asia, and so on and so forth. And Stanley Dragon Miller is a student of... George Soos started his own business, first a hitchhiker, and later a family office, and that's still what drives speculation today. A good book recommendation on this topic is "Hedge Funds: More Money Than God" by Sebastian Maler.
The largest hedge funds nowadays are worth a few hundred billion euros, compared to Apple, Amazon, and others with trillions in market capitalization. The balance has shifted somewhat, but they are still huge hedge funds. Large positions include Stanley and Milo. Wait a minute, these are the positions he's invested in.
Green indicates he's increased his holdings recently, and red indicates he's reduced them. For example, he reduced his position in Elaine McDonnell Douglas. Microsoft and Media are large positions. The largest position is Coupon. Let's look at that directly. We see here that Cooper went public in 2021.
It's relatively new in the US and on the stock market; it's South Korea's Amazon, so to speak. And we see here how Milo initially built up his position in Daily Dragon while the stock fell. This is rather atypical for him because he's a momentum investor. I think he made this exception because they're in a new...
The IPO was, and then the stock found its bottom here, and I bought more last year in the fourth quarter. Another one is Nvidia, an artificial intelligence stock with extreme growth. We see he bought quite well here at the bottom, and the stock exploded. For example, last quarter, on one day when the tooth came out, he bought as much market capitalization in one day as our SAP shares, I think 200 billion in one day.
At that moment, simply turn over 20, 30, 40%, and also the profits. In a phase where some economies are in recession, this company is doing splendidly. The valuation is, of course, also very high. Then Microsoft, we see here he reduced his position and continued buying. Reduced it in this lagging position, and now he's bought again.
Then this pharmaceutical giant Ellis, he bought more here but reduced it somewhat at the end. Then Lemma Westfalica, frozen food. We see in this oven, now he bought, bought, bought, it's further in. Here's a commodity stock, Take Resources, but he had a rather small position. So we see which has significantly increased its holdings.
These are, of course, commodity stocks that don't perform well in a recession. If a recession were to occur, it wouldn't be good for this stock either. However, one anticipates future performance, meaning the stock market anticipates future performance, and this could be a speculation. If a recession doesn't occur, or if China recovers, then such stocks would be very good.
Here, it looks like this, something with water on it. But I looked it up; it's essentially a private military contractor for the US Department of Defense, and there's a lot of money from the Department of Defense involved. Truck & Mila has been buying heavily lately, and the stock is in a nice upward trend.
As for Google, not much needs to be said; it sold quite nicely and then bought back in. And finally, Amazon. Yes, here's a mixed picture. It took profits again and then bought back in. Most recently, it bought and remains invested. Now the question is, why the coupon? We're comparing it specifically with Amazon.
It's referred to as Asia's Amazon. Here we see the history of the buyers again; it never They don't sell anything, they only ever buy, and yes, they offer all sorts of things. The website is in a language we do n't understand, at least most of us do n't. They are active in South Korea, where their headquarters are, but they have offices everywhere, especially in China.
So China could be an important sales market for them, but they are also active in the USA and Japan. They have only been listed in New York on the Neisse River for two and a half years, so they are relatively new. Let's look at which factors are important. For example, in an after-work portfolio, we primarily look at momentum, seasonality, and low volatility and centimeter fluctuations, but also a bit at fundamental indicators about our universe.
Now let's look directly at fundamental indicators. For this, I recommend the book "Word Works and Wolf Street" by James. It's so good, I always present it in my seminars, and it's a huge, thick book. In it, James thoroughly examines the US stock markets over a period from approximately 1950 to 2010 and looks at which factors bring outperformance on the stock market.
The most important factor was momentum, i.e., the price increase of the stock, the trend, but Combining momentum with a low price-to-sales ratio has proven particularly effective, and the price-to-sales ratio is often called the queen of key performance indicators. The reason for this is that the price-to-sales ratio isn't the price-to-earnings ratio, because sales figures are less easily manipulated.
We see here that if you consistently buy stocks with the lowest price-to-sales ratio, you achieve an operating performance relative to all other stocks. You achieve 17% per year, while all stocks, especially all US stocks, only achieved 13% during this period. Kuban currently has a price-to-sales ratio of 1.43, while, for example, Amazon has a sales ratio of 2.5.
Kuban is growing very strongly in Asia and is well- suited as a portfolio addition if you don't want to put all your eggs in one basket. At least, that's what Dragon Mailer believes. The coupon exceeded analyst expectations by 20% in the first quarter of 2023, and Bill Gates, with his foundation, is also investing in Qang, not just Dragon Mail.
The current disadvantage is the recession, so this stock might take off once the recession is over. Now the question is whether this is the optimal time. In any case, we have it in our portfolio. Let's look at the stocks in the long term. The base scenario I have is essentially that we are in a state of financial repression.
This means they start with so much debt that they can only get rid of it or continue operating by constantly printing new money, and we see inflation creeping in. This is also what we have seen for the last 200 years. In the short term, we see that, based on rising interest rates, the USA is now paying more for interest than for its defense, even though its defense budget is larger than that of the ten countries that come after the USA.
The second largest defense budget is probably China, and then several other countries that together spend less than the USA. But the USA is currently paying more for interest, and this also speaks to the repression scenario. I don't think interest rates can remain high indefinitely. And in the long term, we see stocks beating everything.
Of course, nobody lives to be 200 years old, and there are always considerations. Sometimes they are extreme, which is why you need a market filter to avoid getting caught in them, like, for example, the poles. Last year was completely out of the market, but stocks are even beating gold, which is absolutely crucial, of course, against repression, which I personally also believe, but stocks and even bonds are good long-term investments.
With stocks, you've earned an average of 10%, while the US dollar depreciates over time. That's also due to repression, of course, and it does n't look any better with other currencies; they usually depreciate even further against the dollar. In the short term, the stock markets have become somewhat overheated, as we can see from various indicators.
In particular, deep-market managers are currently more heavily invested than they have been in a long time. We see they were very low in interest in October 2022, and since then the stock market has been rising, and they have been increasing their investments in stocks more and more. They are currently very heavily invested, and that could also indicate a setback.
There's also the interest rate meeting of the US Federal Reserve this week, I think on Thursday. It's expected that they will raise interest rates again, meaning always raising them. The last 10 rate cuts came from China because the economy isn't gaining momentum, which is noteworthy because It is, after all, the second largest economy in the world, and the trend towards the end of this year is likely towards fewer interest rate hikes, perhaps pauses at first, and then at some point, tens of tens again.
In the short term, it looks like this anyway. Here's the volatility index, the SMP500. The fluctuations have decreased in the last six months with rising stock prices, but from a seasonal perspective, this is a point where fluctuations will rise again into autumn when people return from their holidays.
Rising fluctuations have often been associated with setbacks in the markets. This doesn't have to be the case; it could also be an upward fluctuation, a market breakout. But it's quite overbought at the moment. So, in the long term, a repressive scenario, meaning inflation coupled with, ultimately, the impoverishment of the population if they don't invest but simply leave their money in the bank.
In the short term, the stock market is in a good trend but could be somewhat overheated. My conclusion from this video: we looked at how Stanley Drunken Miller invests. He's a major investor who has been doing this for decades. And he does practically nothing else, and we've seen how he tactically positions himself with various stocks.
Besides Google, Microsoft, and Amazon, he also has a large position in his portfolio. He also has an Asian stock, Coupon, which we've taken a very close look at here. This is, of course, not a recommendation. I must point out that I personally also hold these shares in my portfolio, and that brings us to the disclaimer.
So, you must always be aware that I personally hold shares in my portfolio. As you can see in this video, it is not an investment recommendation. You are always responsible for your own money. Please read this carefully. Thank you for watching the video. Please subscribe to the channel or leave your comments below the video. I wish you a good week, a wonderful summer, and see you next time.
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