저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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실적시즌 용어 정리: 실적 흐름을 '지속적 우수 분기·첫 양호 분기·마지막 나쁜 분기·첫 나쁜 분기·혼란스러운 분기' 등으로 분류해 주가 방향을 읽어야 한다는 설명. 주택·페인트 관련: 폴티그룹과 셔윈윌리엄스가 실적·마진·수주가 좋아 '지속적 우수 분기'로 평가됨. 연준 금리 인상에도 기존 주택 소유자의 매도 감소로 주택 공급 부족이 지속되어 주택주 강세가 이어질 것으로 봄. 로우즈·홈디포 매수도 시사. 제너럴일렉트릭(GE): 신규 수주와 서비스 사업 호조로 우수 분기 평가. 재생에너지 사업 회복 기대 언급. 알파벳: 유튜브·구글 클라우드 성장 가속으로 좋은 실적. 다만 법무부 독점 소송 우려는 여전하다고 언급. 마이크로소프트는 실적은 양호했으나 기대치 상승·최근 급등으로 주가 상승이 제한될 수 있다고 봄. 첫 양호 분기: NXP반도체는 업황 저점 통과 후 첫 호실적으로 상승 여력 언급. 3M은 소송 합의와 여러 사업부 개선으로 연간 가이던스 상향, 첫 양호 분기로 평가. 마지막 나쁜 분기: 다나허는 3분기 연속 부진 후 저점 신호로 보고 매수 관점 제시(회원 대상 매수 언급). 첫 나쁜 분기: RTX는 엔진 리콜 비용으로 잉여현금흐름 타격. 항공우주 수주는 강하나 추가 악재 가능성 점검 필요. 혼란스러운 분기: GE헬스케어는 알츠하이머 신약 확산 수혜 기대로 하락 시 매수 관심 표명. GM은 UAW 파업 리스크를 경영진이 과소평가했다고 지적. 소비주: 셀시어스 보유자에게 장기 보유 유지 의견. 소비자 신용 악화 조짐과 신규 상장 오디티 테크 관련 견해도 언급. 투자 유의: 실적시즌 매매는 분기 성격 구분이 중요하다는 강조.
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I'll be one of educate to teach earnings season of which of course we're in the middle of requires its own terminology if you don't know the classifications you won't know why stocks go up or down because imagine rarely if ever says uh oh these are going well tonight after day where the Dow ends up 27 points the s p Advance 0.28 and the NASDAQ game point six one percent I'm going to explain to you the lingo the terms you need to understand the action not to mention recognize when the action is wrong these are the actual terms that big money managers use when they're trying to figure out what to do when they're going through earnings season first let's start with the easy ones these I call the continually good quarters we just got a few of them today and tonight none of which should have been surprised but because of macro concerns the world worries that the numbers might come up short the first two great ones were polti group that's a home builder and Sherwin Williams you know them Paint Maker I'm kind of Blown Away by polti strong earnings margins uh orders are fantastic cancellations so low and expectations wow they beat them it was quite simply one of the best quarters of the entire year what's incredible is that tomorrow the feds like you to raise interest rates and that that should be hurting both the margin story and the forecast for homes yet it isn't every time the FED Titans it makes current home owners less likely to sell because they lose too much money anyone that new mortgage payments which are much higher that results in a massive housing shortage Supply hence the endless strength in housing stocks Sherwin-Williams will be it rallies because there's strong demand for pain coupled with a continued decline in raw costs Martin's expansion yes when expanding margins come when you least expect them stocks go up big all right now don't forget they also have double digit growth and protective and Marine and Commercial Property Maintenance you know what residential repainting sales were good doesn't that make you think that maybe Cheryl Williams instead of being hurt by higher mortgage rates is actually doing quite well and it makes you think also that maybe you should be a buyer of Lowe's and Home Depot yes you want to extrapolate from Sherwin-Williams because that was just too good a quarter yes a continually good quarter or if there ever were one now if they're in category for another consecutive great quarter that would belong to General Electric what's important sharply better than expected new orders and big business in Services by the way that's where all the money is really made because G's got this razor razor blade business model you sell the engine to a playmaker and then you repair and service it for years it's 70 gross margins the real kicker here GE is yet to even spin up it's for Nova renewable energy business but it was a pleasant surprise with some really great Traction in Wind currently onshore and soon to be offshore I can't believe how quickly CEO Larry Culp has turned around a previously pathetic business but then again this is Larry Cole best of rips alphabet also fell into the continually good quarter category one important a terrific number after the close tonight sending acceleration of growth and search in YouTube and in Google Cloud one could also argue by the way that Microsoft belonged in the consistently good category this evening now I thought the numbers were fine especially the giant Azure Cloud business but apparently not enough to keep propelling the stock ever higher given its tremendous gains over the last three months now I think it just came in too hot both are Chapel trust names and we will have full reports tonight on for members only of course on each of these numbers in depth you know as I mentioned last night I continue to fret about the Justice Department's monopolistic case against alphabet as I told you but I recognize a continually good quarter when I see one after the continuing good quarters what's next okay we have another category it's called the first good quarter we just had two one last night and one this morning the first is nxp semiconductor the chipmaker with a big presence in autos and the internet of things nxp had been having a tougher time of it but after this nice upside surprise Madness said the 12th is over and the previous quarter uh marked the bottom in the cycle this was the last bad quarter this was the first it was before we had the first good one right now and I got to tell you something I thought it was really good when you get the first good quarter after a trough you get a chance for a big run I think this one in nxp is just beginning the second of the first good quarters that we got was a bit of a shocker to me 3M this one's been taught by litigation overhangs and some endless Revenue in earnings misses all of a sudden though 3M beginning to put all these issues behind them reaching a solid settlement with the most important groundwater spoilage claimants meanwhile it's doing better in multiple divisions including Autos Highway infrastructure sure sounds like the infrastructure Bill there and perhaps and even personal safety CEO Mike Roman even race his full year earnings Outlook to 860 to 910 from the original 850 to 9 bucks that's how a big move begins it belongs in the category of first good quarter and for serial disappointer a first good quarter and don't forget this is dim the Aristocrat is a very big deal stocks don't tend to stop after their first good quarter now let's get tricky if you want the most bang for your buck I mean but there's also the most risk you should try to anticipate the last bad quarter that means you have to get in before management says businesses bottom dicey but when it's what happens it's incredible it's breathtakingly rewarding and that's what happened today with Channel trust holding danaher which now has put up three not so hot quarters in a row but indicated that things could be getting better or in some cases couldn't get any worse now danaher makes high-tech equipment for the medical and pharmaceutical businesses they're heavily reliant on both biotech in China both of which are in bad shape but that's why I smell a bottom and want to get ahead of it as we told club members in a proprietary morning meeting we buy Dan and her right here right now if we weren't restricted by our own discussion because we think this quarter truly marks the bottom if I'm right the last bad quarter of danaher represents a tremendous buying opportunity next category up is the first bad quarter oh no we don't want these the winner and new champion of that category is RTX the company formerly known as Raytheon Technologies we're just having a giant recall of engines that's going to put the wood to the free cash flow RTX totally Kai boss the story about record string of quarters uh and fantastic orders just brutal CEO Greg Hayes had to come on Squawk on the street to spell out the considerable cost to the company and its customers where he told me there will be make Goods keep those customers happy Silver Lining RTX has 13 organic growth and a mammoth order book perhaps the best it's ever had as was the case with GE RTX told you that anything Aerospace is just blowout strong they also had very good defense numbers and it was the first bad quarter thanks to the engine recall and you have to wonder if there's another shoe to drop you always do we address this one with club members as RTX has been in our Bullpen a long time we'll reconsider our next move and I have to tell you I am a big Greg Hayes fan I think he's a straight shooter it may be the first band quarter and it actually might be the last big quarter not sure yet finally they're the quarters where the market may be just plain wrong now we have one on later tonight GE Healthcare that's another Chapel trust name where we've been waiting for the stock to come down because people don't seem to realize that you'll need their machines if you're going to do anything useful with all these brand new Alzheimer's drugs I think GE Healthcare could be the biggest and best beneficiary when it comes to implementation of these amazingly important drugs why not listen to CEO when he talks let me talk to them later I like this story very much but I want to learn more because it was a confusing quarter for some hey you know what the market was initially wrong about General Motors because it was confusing too we had a decent quarter there but Mary Barr the CEO glossed over the fact that there might be a strike that could really crush the earnings later this year we know that the UAW are itching for a fight GM was too good about the whole matter and in stock which was up nicely pureed back down when bar a prematurely dismissed any Union worries with this fiery new UAW leadership a strike could be in the cards no matter how much cooperation Barr thinks there might be bottom line now you have the most important earning season categories let's go over them again you have the continued Excellence you have the first good quarter you have the last bad quarter you have the First Bank order and you have the confusing quarter I know it seems cumbersome but that's truly the behind the scenes nomenclature that fund managers use you just have to figure out with what you got your hands on before you do any buy or sell it and remember there are a lot of different grades a lot of different grades of Excellence alphabet truly put up good numbers tonight Microsoft left so but only because of the lofty expectations caused by a staggering run in the stock of what I always used to call Mister Softee Lori Massachusetts Lori yes hi Jim how are you today I am good Lori how about you good I watched Cheryl show um you mentioned some gen Z companies and one of them was Celsius Holdings yes and I've been watching that stock go up every day well I finally bought it at 1 45.
okay and I'm wondering if you have any thoughts about it maybe yes I do I think they're in great shape Lori I love what pepsico's comments they have a stake in it what PepsiCo said about that about the quarter and the brand tells me that Celsius in for the long term we've liked it ourselves on the show multiple times I think you're in great shape I want you to stick with Celsius all right that might be cumbersome might be a little difficult to understand but before you do any buying and selling during earnings season please make sure you're able to distinguish the good quarters from the bad quarters what went right and what went wrong because that will determine the direction of your stocks made money today subscribers to CBC investing Club know that we've been focused on GE Healthcare and Reporting in second quarter as a standalone company I gotta run through the numbers with the company CEO than in a typical trading cycle Consumer Credit seems to fall apart and over the past week we've seen some cracks in this pavement so is this a warning of things to come I'm digging the situation and the IPO Market has been busy this summer so what should you make of the newly listed stock of Oddity Tech I'm sharing where I come down the name so stay with K thank you
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