저자: UrbanJäkle · 외국인
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S&P 대형 기술주에 대한 밸류에이션 부담을 지적하며 스탠리 드러켄밀러의 포지션 변화(빅테크 일부 매도, 원자재 관련주 편입)를 소개. 금은 심리가 지나치게 부정적이라 진입 기회일 수 있다고 주장하며 뉴몬트, 아그니코 이글스 등 금광주의 높은 배당과 저평가를 근거로 제시. 미국 부채 증가와 중앙은행 금 매입을 장기 금 강세 근거로 언급. 단, 특정 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 명시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
Good afternoon, I welcome you to a new video. Today it's without a camera because I'm currently changing some of my technical setup. Yes, stocks are celebrating ever higher records, while at the same time there's frustration with gold and silver. Here, for example, we see the stock chart compared to 1929, and there we see such a huge crash.
By the way, I don't believe that's likely to happen because we have completely different conditions now. We currently have central banks pumping in massive amounts of money, which was n't the case back then. Good afternoon, this is Urban Jeckle. Welcome to a new video. These are the topics for today.
We'll take a look at what Stanley Dren Miller, this successful form manager, is doing, how he's positioning himself at the moment. He's currently exiting some of his big tech stocks, which are his high- momentum holdings. He's invested in Nvidia and Microsoft, and he's now investing a bit more in commodity stocks.
We'll be watching this very closely, especially gold, because there's an extremely negative sentiment among investors, which is understandable given the last few years. We'll see if there are any potential opportunities in the gold and mining sectors in general. But first, let's start with this chart here, where we see the "Magnificent Seven Stocks," so...
The "Big Seven" now account for so much of the market capitalization. If we look at the overall picture, the US is of course dominant, but these seven already represent, for example, more than all of China, or twice as much as Japan. Compared to Germany, for example, a single stock like Apple has more value than all the German stocks combined, and so on and so forth.
This means the sheer size of these "Big Seven" US stocks— Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Apple, Google, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla—is extreme. And what is Stanley Dren Miller doing? He's heavily invested in these big companies, and he's also investing a small portion in commodities. Let's look at what he's doing.
There's a website I'll share below the video that always publishes information on how major financial managers, like those on Buffit or Stanley Dren Miller, position themselves. You can see it from quarter to quarter. We're not looking at this particular quarter, but we're looking at the last quarter.
Last quarter, he sold Alphabet and Amazon, and he further increased his stake in Microsoft because of artificial intelligence. For example, Chetgpt belongs to Microsoft. He reduced his Nvia position, but at the same time he also bought call options, for example, so he's still heavily invested there; that remains his largest position.
He also opened new positions in various commodity stocks, including Schifron Take Berry Cult. We'll take a look at those in a moment. Overall, Stanley Dräger Miller, for example, achieved a 50% return last year and, calculated over 10 years, 253%, so roughly 20% per year. That 's quite respectable, even though he's had a few declines.
But he's a true professional and has been active in the business for about 30 years or so, as a major leader. Ultimately, his strategies are somewhat based on this book, or run parallel to it. I wanted to share that with you, especially for those interested in quantitative analysis, Watworks, and Wall Street by James Unessy.
The important points from this book are that momentum works best with fundamental indicators, and the best fundamental indicators according to the book are the price-to-volume ratio. Low prices compared to high sales are optimal, meaning low price- to-volume ratios combined with price increases. Why?
Price-to-sales ratios, not price-to- earnings ratios, are the key metric. This is because I focus less on sales and more on the profits of companies. If we look at this using the momentum method, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has outperformed the S&P 500 Index over the last few years. Semiconductors are a key component, including companies like Vida, for example, and all the chips, which have seen high demand in recent years and are becoming increasingly important, especially now in the AI sector.
For several years, they have significantly outperformed the S&P 500 Index. Stanley Dragon Mill holds several large companies in this sector, such as Nvidia, which is their largest position at 13% of their portfolio. They have reduced their holdings somewhat and taken profits, but they are already 26% ahead.
They have increased their position in Microsoft, for example, and are simultaneously adding other companies. They already hold Chefron, but have increased their stake by 72%. Other companies include Schron, an oil producer, and Kameko, a broadly diversified uranium company – arguably the largest uranium company in the Western world.
That's where I'm investing. There are also some videos about it. He increased his position by 53% in the fourth quarter, and Take Resource is a relatively large position; it's about copper, and he increased that by 34% as well. Then he entered a new position in Barck Gold, which I also discussed in the last video.
It was also a favorite of Rick Rol's, practically number one. If you're dealing with goldmen, you ca n't ignore Barck Gold, and Roen Miller now has it as a new holding. Valuations in the tech sector are very high, and that also explains why some profits were taken here. In this model, we see, for example, Nvidia, essentially the projected earnings growth.
So, if you buy Nvidia and they continue to increase their earnings, you only have to wait Z years, and then it's reasonably valued again. But they've already anticipated quite a bit. The same applies to Supermicrocomputer; they're practically a customer of Nvidia, they build such large data centers, and they've also advanced extremely.
I would be cautious about building any new positions right now. And now let's look at the commodity stocks. He bought Kameko. Here we see it has come back somewhat, corrected, and of course, there's a massive increase here. I also use this model in my after- work portfolio, where we look at trends over 10 to 12 months, where stocks rise, and then you can buy in because the stocks usually continue to rise.
Dragon Miller seems to have similar models; he's now also invested in uranium, Kamiko, and other sectors he's added that don't have such good momentum. But anyway, let's take a look at Schaffron. If we look closely at the last few months, or even four years, we can see an upward trend. However, it dipped a bit in the last year, and the stock is undervalued.
So, this is the long-term average growth and price-to-earnings ratio, shown here in the blue and orange lines, and the current price is shown below in the black line. The stock also pays a 4% dividend, so it's quite justified that Dragon Miller added this stock, and also R RUL, which is valued quite well.
In the last video, Takech Resources, we see that the profits are currently... The stock is shrinking, but it's still fundamentally undervalued in this model, which is why he increased it further. With gold, we're seeing a particularly negative sentiment at the moment, and the question is whether this is now an entry point or where we currently stand.
A user on Twitter asked their followers what they thought: will we hold this 2000 mark? We just barely closed above this 2000 mark on Friday, so the price of one ounce of gold is worth over 2000. Here we see a quarterly chart. There was a long stretch from 2011 to 2019, and then the price of gold rose.
With this corona crisis and the central bank measures, it doubled and has been in a sideways phase for three years now. During this phase, and also during the interest rate hikes, the price of gold has held up quite well, remaining above 2000. The question now is, what will happen next? Technically, it doesn't actually look so bad, but we see the investors there There was quite a lot of pessimism.
No, the support won't hold, gold will crash, we'll go towards 1600 in gold, and it's sad, but Bitcoin is currently taking away gold's potential. Gold will probably rise, but there will be bigger gains elsewhere, and most people are n't thinking about that. Almost everyone is writing, " No, the support won't hold." I found that quite remarkable because I'm actually convinced that gold won't fall so drastically anytime soon.
Then there was a question from a customer. Thank you for the question. And in the last video, he said I could mention the gold mining company Egniko Eagles because the valuation is n't expensive, it pays a high dividend, and in his opinion, it's one of the top 3 in the gold market. It also has the lowest AISC.
I'll have to look into that first. AISC ( All-In Sustaining Cost) is the cost of maintaining ongoing mining operations. This means Egniko Eagles has relatively low costs. Conversely, this means it has relatively good deposits that it can easily exploit, and if the gold price should rise, it can benefit particularly well.
We benefit, and according to the valuation model we saw above, the stock is rather cheaply valued, even average, but it has a high dividend of 3.4%, which it has recently increased. We see this curve here: in 2019, the yield was still at 0.8%, and now it has increased towards 3.2%. The price is currently moving sideways, but if it continues to move sideways, then one would essentially be living off this dividend.
It's speculation that the gold price will eventually rise, and then this stock could rise significantly. For example, Otaviicosta, the gold specialist and HGF manager, has looked at Newman. He says goldmen are generally quite undervalued, and the dividends are at historically high levels. For example, Newman Corporations, a large mine that combines gold and silver, now has a 4.8% dividend yield, which was last this high in 2011.
And we see that the correction this stock has currently undergone is 61%. These are typical corrections. This stock has also performed well in the past, always around 72% or 61%, I think those are Fibonacci levels. After such corrections, it usually reached an intermediate low and then went back up.
He says that Newmon Corporation is an incredible long-term opportunity. I've also looked at it; indeed, it has profit growth ahead, and this high dividend makes it quite attractive at the moment. Goldman Sachs and commodity stocks in general should also benefit from this in the long term. The US debt has risen mercilessly; it's now higher relative to the gross domestic product than after World War II, and the outlook remains dramatic.
They're just constantly accumulating more debt. We see this in Germany too, where, thankfully, the Karlsruhe court has put a stop to it, forcing people to think things through again, even if it causes some short-term pain. But the US doesn't have a debt brake, and the country is in deficit. It only ever had a surplus during the boom phase with the internet boom at the end of the 90s, and back then people were younger and more productive.
Now they have Here's an aging population in the USA and a rising deficit, and the only way to address that is through the high-level education you saw above. At the same time, what speaks in favor of gold is that central banks continue to buy gold heavily. Here we see the trend of recent years: the reserves are being expanded.
Around 2008, there were about 30,000 tons, but we're already approaching 36,000 tons in reserves held by central banks worldwide. By the way, things look pretty good for Europe because the larger the country shown in the chart, the more gold it has. The USA has the most gold, but Germany, France, and Italy are close behind.
The chart is from 2019, excuse me, it's a few years old, but not much has changed. China and Russia have probably increased their holdings further, but they also have various problems now. Europe is still in a pretty good position, and fortunately, Germany has also physically transferred most of its gold from the USA to Germany over the last 30 years.
Please correct me in the comments if anything isn't quite right. There are quite a few experts who are very knowledgeable in this area. Finally, a reminder about the video course: today is the last day of the offer where you can buy it for €790 (originally €590). The "After-Work Depot" offer, where you can test it for €1, also ends today.
You can watch it below the video in the options video course. I achieved this performance in the last two years with two strategies, going from €30,000 to € 54,000. I share these strategies in my video course as closely as possible, including a master file so that you have the exact same layout and look and feel as I do when trading.
You'll get all the parameters, and you can practice this—I believe uniquely in the German-speaking world—in PayPal trading without real money. If you're interested in the offer, just send me an email here. As I said, there's also a second way to access the options course: the giveaway for my 10,000 subscribers.
You can participate by simply sending me an email here. I'm almost at 10,000 subscribers now. I think we're still 50 or 100 short at this point. Thank you very much. And when I reach 10,000, I'll do a small webinar where this course will be raffled off. So, I've now reached the summary of this video.
Do I need to zoom in again? So, overall, we see a negative sentiment for gold, perhaps too negative for the last few years. Many stocks are battered, and it could be that stocks like Newmond or Agniko Eagles have now reached attractive levels. Dragon Miller sees it similarly; he's now partly moving into the commodities sector, has bought gold, and has bought some commodities, e.g., Schfron, Tech Resources, or Kamiko.
However, he's still mostly in his big tech stocks, even though they're already very highly valued. That's the majority of his holdings, though he has reduced them somewhat. So, thank you for listening, and I'll conclude with the disclaimer we find here. As always, this is not investment advice. You must always assume that I personally don't own the stock market content I've shown here, and you always trade at your own risk.
I understand your personal situation. Please take note. I'll take my time going through everything. I'm personally going to the demonstration in Frankfurt now for Mr. Nervvalny, for democracy in Russia. I wish you a pleasant Sunday and see you next time.
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