저자: SandyMunro · 외국인
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Sandy Munro 인터뷰 요약. 테슬라는 자율주행에서 약 10년 앞서 있다는 견해이며 제조 방식(대형 주조로 부품 통합)도 경쟁사보다 몇 년 앞선다고 평가. 라이다보다 적외선 계열 기술이 미래라고 봄. 배터리 교환은 비효율적, 4680 셀에 긍정적. 수소는 대형트럭·eVTOL에 유망하나 인프라 부족으로 5년 이상 걸릴 것으로 봄. 루시드·아키모토 등은 양산 전환 과정에서 어려움이 있을 수 있음. 나노디멘션은 3D프린팅이 대량생산에 느려 한계가 있다고 봄. 정확한 1~3개월 가격 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
this video is sponsored by weeble where you can get up to eighteen hundred and fifty dollars in free stocks when you sign up and deposit one hundred dollars go to medkevin.com weeble or click the link down below hey everyone meet kevin here last week i had the most incredible opportunity to speak directly with sandy monroe from monroe and associates sandy monroe is an expert engineer on costing vehicles and consulting for me vehicle manufacturing and especially since i personally and many of us who watch this channel have a lot of money invested into the electric vehicle space i wanted to kind of look back at some of the notes that i took from the interview with sandy monroe keep in mind when i do interviews i take notes not only to reference them in the future but i also take notes because often times something that somebody says is something that i want to ask a follow-up question on and so you'll regularly see me in that interview refer back and say hey but you just said this how does that relate to this and that in my opinion is really important when interviewing okay so i've got my notes up and i'm gonna go through some of the really neat things that i learned uh not too terribly much from on lucid from sandy monroe he hasn't done a breakdown on those vehicles yet and i respect him for not touching on something he hasn't gone deep on yet so i think that that is a very respectable but i want to give lucid a shout out here because you might be wondering what i do think is very cool about what sandy monroe says is he is almost confident that tesla is 10 years ahead on self-driving technology this is something i i mean i don't know if i can put a number on how far ahead tesla is but as a tesla owner and having had a lot of issues with my tesla in 2017 and seeing how the software has graduated i can tell you it's a climb it is a path like it is a struggle to get full self-driving moving or even the self-driving that we have now where you got to fully pay attention and the car can't do everything yet with the exception of the beta systems which are in beta i don't have the beta yet but i've seen videos of it it's amazing uh i i would venture to say tesla is at least three years ahead of the competition i don't know about 10 but hey sandy's the expert in this so this is no shade on sandy this is just me agreeing that i definitely think tesla is far ahead of the competition and this is actually one of the concerns that i have for lucid lucid says that they're going to be level 3 autonomous ready but i don't know which platform they're going to use who are they going to partner with to do this who's going to provide their autonomous chips who's going to provide you know are they using lidar sensors if so who's providing them i'd like to know those details and i don't have those details yet but i do agree tesla is far ahead with the autonomous and folks one of the things i've always said on this channel is the value of an ev manufacturer is not the fact that they can slap batteries on the car it's the fact that they can slap batteries on a car and have autonomous driving that is the future whether we look towards robo taxis or what the future is self-driving vehicles and a company that does that well is a company i want to invest in this is one of the reasons i'm also investing in neo though it's a smaller portion of my portfolio i do invest in neo as well and as much as sandy monroe does not like the legacy automakers which we'll talk about in a moment i have to say gm out of all of them and the chevy well that's not chevy the cruise department which is an entire company that was actually bought by gm that is now under the gm umbrella that company solely works on autonomous driving tech they've got like 30 000 employees now which i think they've like 15x their employee account and that company got an investment from microsoft and that cruise company within gm has like a 30 billion valuation which is almost half of gm's total valuation that company inside gm has a lot of promise to me like i wouldn't be shocked in the future if cruz is more valuable than the parent company gm we'll see pay attention to gm though because of that so uh love love the argument on the autonomous driving system and i think we you know we didn't talk about it too terribly much but i will say it is the most valuable part of an ev manufacturer so i'm excited about that and i really want to highlight that now let's talk about the uh the discussion about manufacturing so i brought up the lego example because in sandy monroe's interview with elon musk elon musk talked about how elon's able to reduce 30 percent of the size of his factory facilities by having uh castings that basically automatically put together somewhere around 170 parts into one part so saving 169 parts something that i didn't think about and that i really respected getting this insight from sandy monroe is he makes a really good point that when you have metal and you have a bunch of different metal pieces you have to bolt those pieces together bolts need washers in between them you have to in certain places weld those pieces together and welds can break you know sometimes ships sink because the welds break and there are rivets and places and i'm not a manufacturing expert here but based on what sandy's saying by suggesting look we get rid of all of those potential quality issues by turning it into one piece that is huge for a manufacturer and nobody else is doing this and that's a reason sandy monroe thinks that tesla's five years ahead of everybody else he loves what's tesla's doing if anything sandy is looking at what tesla's doing and he's trying to teach other companies how to do the same thing and because that's what he does he's an automotive manufacturing advisor and uh an air aerospace engineering manu advisor as well and when i followed up on this and i asked well who's going to catch up he said dude you can't you can't catch up to tesla you're always going to be number two this was another big takeaway here it's that look tesla might be years ahead of others but the thing is they keep improving on the stuff they have now while other people are playing catch-up and this is something that i think is really really powerful to hear as a tesla investor now i'm always cautious and skeptical because i don't want to be the investor that's like blind faith like oh yeah i only want to hear the positive about tesla obviously i want to hear positive things about tesla i don't like that sandy monroe said he doesn't invest in tesla stock anymore i don't know if that's uh you know because of contractual obligations or because of some personal beliefs he has i have no idea i couldn't get anything other than positive out of him so in my opinion i i did feel a little bit of potentially cognitive dissonance uh here where you kind of have two competing uh beliefs so that was a little confusing to me uh i didn't really understand that uh but either way it it sounds like everything sandy monroe is mentioning is absolutely brilliant uh regarding a tesla and i love that but i did also kind of slam tesla and this is where i like to bring up follow-ups and i said well what about the quality control you know why are we having so many issues at tesla and i've previously theorized on this channel that the reason tesla hasn't had the perfect quality control is because they're trying to get to mass markets so fast they're basically trying to say look 90 is still an a let's go we'll fix the problems in time but let's go we don't have 15 years to create something perfect we got a go go go sell sell sell create something that's good enough for the mass market and then we'll improve over time sandy monroe kind of agreed with this analogy now while he didn't know what my analogy was when i asked the question sandy monroe stated well that's just elon being cheap and in other words they didn't take the time to hire the correct advisors to make sure that tesla was doing all the right things at all the right levels of the process this is really interesting because obviously sandy monroe is an advisor so a little bit it's a pitch for people like sandy monroe because it's like hey you need smart people coming into the factory line and going yo dude no stop doing the welds like this do them like this and this is true i agree with sandy that people like sandy are extremely critical in the manufacturing process because if you perfect the manufacturing process up front then when you copy and paste it you're copying and pasting quality rather than imperfection and tesla has had a reputation for imperfection and i'm not like major in perfection we're talking about like fog and lights which can be expensive you know panel gaps when my falcon doors opened the first time it rained here in southern california uh the the rain would funnel uh down the middle of sort of this this gap they have at the top of the falcon door uh and then it would funnel into and start shooting into the car from the sides and it would basically rain into my car seats when i opened up the falcon door uh needless to say that that should not happen uh and tesla did fix that problem but it was one of my frustrations with tesla as well i had a lot of frustrations with tesla the quality control had it's gotten better okay let's put it that way now uh moving on uh sandy monroe also goes on to touch on lidar which i really appreciated this uh he does not believe that lidar is the future he actually nicknames it ladar and i don't know i don't think he was mispronouncing it i think he's basically calling it stupid dar so he's not very enthusiastic about lidar i think uh for for uh sandy monroe he believes that in the future we're going to look at something more like a flir type type technology where we use infrared kind of a 3d map locations in front of us currently tesla does not do that so i don't know is this is this potentially the tesla achilles heel and is that maybe why sandy monroe isn't investing keep in mind that tesla is a manufacturer that says we just want to perfect this camera on radar technology and getting this working they're the only one doing this everybody else is using as elon musk says the crux of lidar everybody else is not doing what tesla's doing and so it makes you wonder does that mean tesla's doing it right and they're the only one who's figured it out or is tesla going to end up hitting a brick wall and go oh crap now we have to adapt either way i have no concern uh it foretests on this because in my opinion tesla could simply just buy microvision they could install lidar in the mirrors like you put a new mirror unit in at the front of the car now you're forward-facing lardar perfect now you've got the crux as elon musk says but then you solve the problem you know then you have lidar forward-facing light on we'll see uh then uh you know i i threw this in here because this came up as well just in the sort of manufacturing talk this was really a nano dimension question i asked him what he thought about 3d printing because i i've outlined my thesis on nanodemention and it's actually even the the stock has done so incredibly well and i'm so happy for that i think there's a lot of excitement enthusiasm about the stock arc investors in it it's not a stock that personally i've been very very very long run excited about mostly because i'm worried about 3d printing not being something that could be commercially viable that it's maybe really good for research purposes instead and i said that you could check out my nano dimension video other but that look that doesn't mean that every research institution in the world won't end up buying a nano dimension machine and they end up crushing revenues right like maybe they're just a company that that they're not gonna mass manufacture these 3d printers but they're going to sell a craft ton of them and make a lot of money and that is one reason i really like nanodemention it's not in my portfolio obviously you know from when i made the video i wish it was i was very bullish on the company but i also gave my concerns and i brought this up with sandy and uh he mentioned the problem with 3d printing is that it's slow and that's it it's really good for making one-offs like one-off examples or templates or test products but it's really good or i'm sorry it's really bad for mass manufacturing and so if you're in nano dimension that's a reason to pay attention to nano dimension to see if they can speed that process up really really important uh then i we touched a little bit about luxury cars which is something that lucid is starting with verse you know doing this this race to the bottom the 25 000 card sandy monroe had a very strong belief that back in that history is our best teacher basically that back in the day nobody believed that making an inexpensive car would be profitable and that's one of the reasons the united states said ah whatever let japan just do the cheap cars and look at what's on the road now hyundai honda toyotas you know these cars that are high quality cars at a low price very well done and they're they're foreign cars and they're absolutely phenomenal and so sandy monroe says history told us that was a big mistake and that if you focus on luxury buyers at some point you're going to run out of luxury buyers and even though they can be impressive really the way to make money is by selling to the mass market and that's actually what tesla is doing that's exactly what tesla's doing and lucid plans to go down that same trajectory they're going to start with their luxury car then they're going to work their way down to less expensive cars okay then uh we have uh i i asked about archimoto i said look seems like a fun car i'm going to try it out soon i want to know what's taking so long why have we been you know 13 years in the process and what's taking so long and sandy monroe actually said hey look he's working with them to get to mass building right now that the vehicles that uh that archimoto has right now are not capable of mass production and so they have to make changes to get to mass production so this is going to be interesting i'm going to pay attention to arkimoto it's possible that arkimoto in the short term could have a little bit of suffering in its stock because of this transition anytime you get a transition from this is what we're doing now to a completely new process you generally suffer on margin and uh you end up basically having to rebuild from a lower point so pay attention to that i thought that was a really good signal to watch for archimoto then uh i asked him about battery technology and cindy monroe believes that the 4680 cell which is tesla's new cell for their plaid editions is going to end up clobbering everyone is what he says he's very very bullish on these new battery cells super excited loves that they get cooled from the bottom which he says is how you should cool a bot a battery absolutely great then he touches on quantum and he really calls this totally different technology and and he says in the future solid state batteries will leave everything else in the dust in fact solid-state batteries are going to be things that we're going to want to end up using for electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles that that will have much lighter weight batteries that'll give them higher speed more power and be able to travel further distances alternatively the other option to solid-state batteries for flying vehicles could be hydrogen sandy monroe is very bullish on hydrogen i asked a couple times because my thesis is that hydrogen is not going to be popular until 2030.
and he says look hydrogen's not for everyone he didn't really give me a time frame in terms of when hydrogen might be popular it does seem like he thinks it's going to be at least five plus years until hydrogen's more popular but he says the perfect market for hydrogen is actually big rigs and electric vtols vertical takeoff and landing vehicles but that they should do something like tank swapping instead of you have to stand there with a nozzle and fill it up i'm not exactly sure why he was very bullish on like tank swapping where you put in like a here's your new hydrogen tank and it swaps out the old one kind of like neo's battery swapping tech i'm not sure why he was anti-the nozzle we didn't have we had a very limited amount of time i mean i shouldn't say very limited amount of time we had an hour and ten minutes uh but uh i mean we could have talked to sandy for two or three hours not that we would have wanted to do that all in one sitting anyway but i'd like to ask sandy more about why no nozzle what's the difference is it because you you lose that potential compressiveness that you have with the hydrogen you know does it does do you lose too much energy in that transfer i don't know uh now regarding the tesla semi sandy monroe actually thinks that elon musk is wrong on hydrogen and that hydrogen's going to end up being the better product for something like a tesla semi truck that you should have because with hydrogen you need if you have a fuel cell and you need batteries anyway the fuel cell charges the battery basically uh he thinks that elon musk is wrong here and that essentially in the tesla semi you should probably have some mix of hydrogen and electricity which in my opinion it's very likely that if we actually have hydrogen infrastructure in the future that'll be an easy change for tesla to make and who cares if elon changes his mind but the big problem right now is we don't have hydrogen infrastructure so we can't really expect to have all this uh you know the these hydrogen vehicles on the road when we don't even have the hydrogen infrastructure like where are you going to fuel it these days there's so few fuel you know places you could fuel up uh and uh on this he thinks we're way behind the curve he thinks that europe's already on this china's already on this japan's doing like the hydrogen highway like the united states is going to need a big governmental effort to push hydrogen to really get this moving i also learned that you should not call electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles drones apparently calling them drones is offensive good to know uh and that uh he's very bullish on electric vehicle takeoff and landing units these evitals and the reason he is is he says look robo taxis are gonna be great and i'm summarizing here i'm putting this into my own words robo taxis are going to be great but they're really going to be a short-term solution to a long-term problem the long-term solution is taking advantage of the third dimension being able to fly up and down and then move forward and backwards and left and right and the beauty about that is you'll have so much more space between flying vehicles that autonomous flying capabilities would substantially be capable of of keeping and maintaining proper distances from other vehicles because you have so many different layers that you could fly in you're no longer just on one layer you have multiple different tiers and sky sort of in the sky sort of that you could fly in and a really good example of this that we actually talked about in the millennial money podcast a new podcast between myself and some of my buddies uh jeremy andre and graham we we talked about how amazon robots at the factories from like five years ago they these things in some of the factories they move with such precision inches from each other in a completely autonomous way there's really no reason for us not to have this autonomy come to flying vehicles as well in the future now those the amazon bots that use qr codes on the floor so obviously there's still work to be done but uh yeah very inside exciting uh prospects into electric vehicle uh or vtols and it's gotten me excited to look into more i'm not so jumping up and down about the company archer for example though because like their united partnership is a joke united's basically getting paid hundreds of millions of dollars to make the partnership this is my research uh so you know and i think that's probably why the stock isn't trading for more than 16 right now we'll see what happens in the long term long run i think the ev tolls are going to be a really cool option i do think there's a potential that right now they're a little too hypey and that we are still three to four years out from actually having the right technology to use these in a mainstream way so maybe the better time to buy these ev tall stocks would be closer to like two years from now when i asked sandy about apple he kind of blushed and uh bluntly dodged the question by saying next question so um it's obviously likely that sandy monroe is under some kind of nda where he can't speak about apple because he's advising apple but knowing apple honestly they probably hire every advisor they can and they do a lot of um waiting and thinking uh whereas elon musk is let's get to the market and then think about it you've got really big differences in personality here of company and i'm not saying one is right or one is wrong but i personally do think it's gonna it's gonna be a while before apple gets around and actually has a car out here we'll see uh one other thing that i thought was really interesting from sandy monroe is he bagged on battery swapping he thought it was stupid he says by the time you swap a battery you could just have charged up at a supercharger uh and and neo is working on their second version of battery swapping technology they are working on speeding that up and getting more of these units out battery swapping is something that did fail in the united states at least per elon musk who knows maybe he didn't really give it a a full shot but uh yeah it'll be really interesting to see where battery swapping goes and neo goes in the future so uh this is uh this is kind of my overview here of my conversation with sandy i want to say this as sort of a summary uh what i got from sandy is strong bullishness on tesla that we're still years away from vertical takeoff and landing but that we should pay attention to it now we're still many more years away from hydrogen but that hydrogen is going to be really powerful for big rigs and possibly even vitals i also am going to be a little bit more skeptical on battery swapping and i'm going to pay attention to this a little bit more uh and i'm fascinated to see tesla continue to redesign their manufacturing process to save money i have to say this was uh this was a very very fun interview i've had a lot of fun interviews i'm constantly looking and talking to folks uh to see who we could bring on the channel as a guest but uh sadie monroe huge huge thank you sandy monroe for coming on uh for anybody watching this thank you so much for watching and your support hopefully appreciated the summary and sort of kevin's reaction to this and folks we'll see in the next video you
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