저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 명확한 단기 종목 가격 예측 없이, NBFC·주택금융 수요와 장기 기업 가치에 대한 낙관이 중심이다. 금융주 관련: 시장이 은행보다 NBFC를 선호하고 있으며 긍정적으로 본다. 주택금융 수요는 강하지만, 틈새 시장을 정해 어디에 포지셔닝할지 결정해야 한다고 조언한다. 연체율은 1% 미만으로 잘 관리되고 있다고 언급했다. 여신 심사(underwriting) 품질을 계속 지켜봐야 하며, 이를 지키면 전망은 밝다고 본다. 그룹 지배구조 이슈: 현재 그룹 내 혼란은 가치 체계가 시험받는 시기이며, 장기적으로 그룹의 가치 체계가 개인을 넘어설 것이라고 본다. 이번 사태는 일종의 미니 위기이며, 회사가 현금흐름·이익·시총 등 강점을 가지고 있어 일시적 스트레스일 뿐이라고 본다. 회계 이슈는 의견 차이가 있을 수 있으나, 대응 방식이 충격적이었고 다르게 처리할 수도 있었다고 평가한다. 5~7년 기준으로는 기업이 무엇을 하느냐에 따라 주가가 결정될 것이라 본다. 실적이 나쁜 사업부 정리 및 현금창출 사업 집중 가능성을 언급했다. 투자 철학: 과거 투자는 당시 상황에서 합리적이었으며 일부 실패는 있을 수 있다. 기업 투자는 하방 1배, 상방 여러 배 구조라 일부 실패는 감수 가능하다고 본다. 투자자 조언: 특정 종목 매수를 추천하지 않는다. 가격이 하락해 가치 대비 싸지면 매력적이 될 수 있다고 언급했다. 해당 그룹 기업들의 장기 전망은 현재 사태에 영향을 받지 않는다고 본다.
다듬은 글
you know at least markets have clearly preferred nbfcs over the banking space we are positive i mean in housing side demand is good you have to decide your niche where exactly you want to uh position yourself but demand is very strong the same delinquency is also well under control well within single one percent uh so you have to you have to keep an eye on your quality of underwriting once you do that i think uh the prospects are quite bright we spoke about markets like is yeah so it's sad i mean we will still hold them in a great respect and that ultimately value system of the group will be beyond any individual you know i mean the current chairman or the pastor man outgoing or incoming the values they hold are too too dear to anything i mean that's the i mean that's what has kept them going for 100 more than 100 years and i'm quite sure that will prevail over everything else so uh i mean this is a test of time for the uh for the values to be tested i mean only in that time you test the values so this is the this is a kind of a mini crisis in the in the house and uh how clean and how how they preserve the values and come out giving the explanation of whatever is required because see ultimately companies have i mean huge cash flows profits and market caps and generating assets are there so there could be some stress here and there and it's a matter of opinion accounting and all those kind of things but i think the way things are being conducted or has turned out to be that's been shocking and uh probably it could have been uh handled a little differently uh but finally i'm quite sure on a five year seven year basis the company's prices it might be impacted right now but eventually will be decided by what the companies do i mean if tcs does very well i think these things will be a passing cut off for remark uh which were not delivering uh he wanted to do away with them and maybe focus on the cash generating companies steel segments what's your take see uh as far as amen see one of the thing is that you you do the investment looking at the future okay so you need to have a vision but when you appraise it after five years you are we are going with the hindsight so these are two different things you know uh the investments were made in the first decade looking at whatever was the global situation community situation whatever was the opportunity okay now after everything is behind in 2012 13 14 15 you you have to if you have committed mistake in the past you have to correct it isn't it so there there would have been some mistakes and now the current chairman or whosoever is the chairman his job is to correct that mistake and get on to doing more investments wherever he feels right and take the group forward so it's a part of the part and part of the game that you come in all the investments some are right some are wrong but even in the corporate investment your downside is 1x but upside is multiple multiplex isn't it right so if one company is right i mean a billion dollar can become 10 20 30 billion dollars but five billion dollars of investment going down the tube it's fine last question to you ramdevagar ea crisis no i would not recommend any investors any any uh the same because investors themselves know no if they think something is worth 600 rupees it is available for 500 or 400 rupees obviously it becomes more attractive to buy right you know right but i am quite sure that longer term prospect of any others any of these companies are completely unaffected by the current different current doings all right thanks for joining us
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