저자: RamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 라메시 아그라왈은 장기 복리 투자와 인내를 강조하며, 향후 2년 내 지수가 3만~3만5천 수준까지 오를 수 있다고 보고 하방은 제한적이라고 판단한다. [투자 철학] 워런 버핏의 장기 보유 사고와 찬드라칸트 찬드라의 복리 개념을 결합해, 장기간 복리로 자산을 키우는 것이 핵심이라고 강조한다. 센섹스가 1979년 100에서 47년간 약 800배 올랐다는 점을 근거로 들며, 앞으로도 비슷한 배수가 나올 수 있다고 주장한다. [시장 전망] 지수가 2년간 23~24대에서 횡보하는 것은 투자자·규제당국·은행이 지친 상태를 보여주며, 이 횡보가 끝나면 급등할 수 있다고 본다. 현재 PER이 과거 평균(약 20배) 대비 낮은 12~13배 수준이라 하방이 제한적이고, 지수가 약 8000포인트 상승할 여지가 있어 하락 대비 상승 여력이 비대칭적으로 유리하다고 판단한다. 다만 이익 성장률이 15~17%에서 15% 수준으로 둔화된 점은 언급했다. [투자 방식과 종목 선택] 1~2개월 단위의 단기 매매보다 소수의 우량 기업을 대량 매수해 오래 보유하라고 조언한다. 기업 가치는 주가보다 사업 성장, 경영진, 실적을 봐야 한다고 강조한다. 과거 HDFC은행을 1995년 주당 38루피에 사서 54~55루피에 판 경험을 예로 들며, 조기 익절로 수천억 원 규모의 기회를 놓쳤다고 후회를 고백한다. 히어로모토코프 역시 1996년 30루피대에 매수해 장기 보유한 사례를 든다. 인포시스는 6700루피 부근에서 1만1000루피까지 올랐으나 과도한 매도로 손실을 본 사례도 언급했다. [시장 구조와 기회] 인도 GDP가 과거 대비 크게 성장했고, 향후 15~17년 내 20~22조 달러 경제가 될 것으로 본다. 매달 200~300만 개의 증권계좌가 개설되는 등 참여가 늘어나 과거보다 밸류에이션은 높아졌으나 여전히 기회가 많다고 판단한다. 스몰캡은 기관 커버리지가 적어 성장 잠재력이 크다고 언급했다. [리스크] 시장 조정은 불가피하며 장기 여정에서 함정(포트홀)은 반드시 만난다고 지적한다. 단기 주가 하락에 흔들려 장기 계획을 포기하는 투자자의 심리적 실패가 가장 큰 리스크다. 세금 부담과 매도 후 재매수 시 생기는 손실도 주의해야 한다고 강조한다. 프로모터의 블록딜·QIP 매도 등 수급 리스크도 언급되었다. [출연자 전망 요약] 향후 2년간 지수 3만~3만5천 도달 가능성을 제시했고, 장기 보유와 탐욕 억제(기대수익을 지수+2~3%p 수준으로 낮출 것)를 핵심 원칙으로 강조했다. 아닐 싱비(사회자)의 발언은 제외했다.
다듬은 글
Hello, I am Anil Singhvi and welcome to our special series Market Mentors, dedicated to Teachers' Day and mentors. Through this series, we are talking to five such big giants of the market who have deep experience of many decades in the market and today we will try to bring their experiences and their learnings of so many years in the market in front of you so that you can become a better investor and in this series, today I am going to introduce you to such a guru of the market who has not only created huge wealth for himself and his investors but he also has immense experience in choosing multibagger shares and the most important thing is that we have to make money but we have to make it very big.
He is a master of this thought process and we will also learn from him some of the best tips to strengthen the portfolio. So without any delay, let us introduce you to Ramdev Agarwal, Chairman and Co-Founder of Motilal Oswal Financial Services, the market expert and wealth creation guru. Ramdev Sir, you are most welcome.
First of all, many congratulations and best wishes to you on Teachers' Day and thank you too. May you achieve a lot in life. Oh no sir, we always want to learn from you, the market is the biggest guru. Of course, the market is the biggest guru, but we get to learn and understand a lot from the real guru.
One thing I have seen different in you from others. Although, many big names are met in the market. But your thinking is very big. I understand this because whenever I talk to you, you do not talk about making small money. You will always talk about market cap, from this much market cap, this much market cap will become this much, it will become this much, that is, this much time will pass and I remember in a show you had told me that there is more money in this market than there is water in Ganga, much more than that [laughs], this is more than that, this is not usually the thinking of any person.
We feel that if we make 10, 20, 50% and it doubles then we are a great emperor. How do we get this thought process? Please teach us this and explain it to us. I do n't know where it came from, but [laughs] we started it like everybody else did. It was started in 87, right? I think this happened because of Buffett's long term thinking, which was to buy fewer companies, buy quality companies, you know, and have a focused portfolio, buy and hold, buy and hold, so he taught it, he talked about it, correct [sound of clearing throat], so if you buy and hold in that, then compounding is required, then if we or you kept it for 10 years, 20 years, then at what rate did your company, that is, your investment, grow, from 15% to 20% to 25%, that is the thought process, first of all, we learned compounding in 91, before meeting Buffett, I learned compounding from the late Chandrakant ji, correct in 91, and I combined the market and compounding, so now my thinking is this, that is, you can make your horizon as long as you want, you can think for 100 years, think for 100 years, that can only be done through compounding, correct, you know, well, I have seen the market for 45 years, Sussex of 100 Now I remember 80, right, so this is 800 times 800 times, yes, this is what happens, I mean, there is no doubt that the next one will also happen 800 times.
We are still 45 years old. It may take 50 years or 40 years. This will happen again. Now what happens in this? So this will happen, this is 99%. It is my given. It is given. Now the question is that whatever is going to happen is known. But I do n't know when it will happen. And that frustration that the market hasn't moved for two years, the index is oscillating between 23, 24, 23, 24.
It means the public is tired, it means the regulators are tired, the bankers are tired, everyone is tired. So, it's better to sit quietly in that tiredness. When it comes, it will come with a bang. It will come late, but it will come safely. This confidence, I mean, how much will you drop the premium multiple?
You made the 24 one 21, you made the 21 one 20, you do n't do anything about the 20 one. Next year, if you keep hovering around 24, it will become 18. And if you wait a year, it will come at 16. So, it's not like that, it's late, but it's not dark. The market will respond. Well, when the market comes, it will come with such a bang that you won't believe it.
So, what happens is, at the top, you don't know when the bottom will come, and at the bottom, you don't know when the top will come. But what is this pace, the index pace of 12-13%, you believe it to be 15-17%, and if you're a great archer, You earn 20-22 taka, that is a given, I mean there is no such doubt in my mind, you have to invest lakh crores, invest lakh crores, you have as much devotion as you have, keep it at ₹1 crore, one crore, you are a student, start with one lakh, start there, but this is the game of compounding, we and you will not find such a compounded country, we are not, I understood the point, you told the data exactly how the Sensex started from 100 in 1979, today in 47 years it has become 80, it has become 800 times, it has become 800 times, but generally the thought process of people is that brother, my 10, 20% has become 50%, it has become 100%, it is enough, what to do, this thought process of earning big, how to change it, you will have to increase the capacity to digest the profit, that is, you will have to increase the capacity to digest the profit, that is, if 10 becomes 20, then brother the share is still cheap because the share company has been moving forward, the company is moving forward at a very fast pace, we So you have to see that the company's race and the money you are going to make is not like the company is making 20% and you have earned 100 rupees and that too means your profit has increased 10 times and the company's profit has just doubled.
Correct then it is a different matter. But generally, I am talking about what happens in terms of portfolio, in portfolio or any company, you bought something cheaply, the company is running, it doubled in 3 years at the rate of 25%, but it was found that from there also, 25 taka can increase in 10 years, it will become 10 times, that kind of understanding that 25 taka ran for 10 years, any company or bank or anyone, what happened in HDFC Bank, from 95 to 2025, from 30 years nonstop, we have given you 25 taka nonstop, now you, I had bought it earlier, now I will tell you my sad story.
95 I bought ₹5,12,000 shares. We bought it for ₹38 and sold it for ₹54. Sold it for ₹55. End of story. For me, I made it for 50 taka. But guess what I missed? Thousands of rupees. Correct correct correct. Well, I had no doubt that the company would earn 30 rupees more. Earn 30-40 lakhs every year. I had no doubt about that.
Well, it is not that the company is bad and will not earn. No, I mean, okay, I knew this was going to happen. Still, if you lose your mind, what will you say? So what we booked profits, right? So you can't go wrong by booking profits. So that's the understanding that I understood later. Now, if we bought in 2002 and made money for 20 years after that [sound of clearing throat], so what is this that there are very few companies, this is also a special thing, what is our problem, not every company grows 15 taka, 20 taka, 25 taka, correct, I mean [nasal sound] out of your 4000 companies, hardly 300-400 companies are good companies where compounding will happen in this manner, correct, so you have to sit in those companies where you see a picture of 10 years, 15 years like this and at least [sound of clearing throat] you have to stay in the market, right?
You will move from one company to another. Okay, brother, I got out of this company, this company grew a lot. Now I feel that it will not grow further, I moved to another company, but the total allocation in the market We have 10 crores, the entire 10 crores, we work 24 hours a day and night, this is the biggest thing, I mean, my most unique thing has been that since I started in 87 [sound of clearing throat], I have always had ₹1 in my pocket, okay, always an investor, always 100, 100 of 100, okay, not 10001, okay, 99.9%, neither do you have to leverage nor do you have to keep cash, yes, whether the market is bullish or bearish, it is good to sit idle, Bharat Mata ki Jai, I mean, keep working, oh wow, okay, what is the problem in that, whenever the market falls very hard, like my portfolio fell first in Harsh Mehta's time, in 92, our portfolio of 30 crores became 10 crores, the portfolio became 1 for 30 and 30 for 10, 1 for 30, 10 for 10, so what did people think, brother, it became 30 for 10, how did they feel, oh brother, my 1 has become 10 for 10.
I am watching. Yes. Yes now, otherwise it will seem that my 20 crores have gone waste. Yes. Then 10 became 100. 100 became 30 again. Back 30 My God. So, 10 has become 30, so now this is a sight to behold. Will we look at 10 for 30 or 10 for 1? That is important. But the journey is bound to happen to this country.
[Sound of clearing throat] If you travel long distances, you're bound to encounter potholes. No matter how good your highway is. Tell me one thing. Some [sound of clearing throat] Sir, there would be such stocks which you have kept for 10 years, 15 years , 20 years. I still have a couple of stocks. I am 20-22 years old.
Is equal. Yes, I am still trying to buy it. Tell me if you have kept any stock for 20-22 years. Yes. So, in the last 20-22 years, there must have been such frustration in many stocks that the price has halved, decreased by 70% or is not doing well for two-three years. So in such a situation, how can one sit peacefully?
Look at the company, Company C, I'm not just concerned with the share price. Is the company doing well or not? Is the company running or not? If we and the business are equal then the business is equal and is going on, there is growth and right now the price is very cheap so now our turn will also come, our turn will also come someday so what happens is that we meet many people, sir we want to take it for long term, tell me sir, 5 years, 10 years, which one should I take, yes we take it with that intention, sir said we will take it for 5 years, now what happened, it is fine for five weeks, so if it starts falling from the fifth week to the sixth week, then suddenly [sound of clearing throat] they felt like oh I am not doing any mistake, they forget the long term story, the 5 year story.
So in good times everyone can see the long term. In bad times, in bad times, only that feeling is visible that brother, my feelings have not worked. The person next to me got it and mine remained. Yes you know you bought it and it's gone. I am left behind but you have gone far ahead. So what do they do, they sell theirs and then they will come after you.
We then move on like this one after the other. There is no money to be made in that. We are saying that is not the way to make money only. You will also pay tax on that. First of all you will pay taxes. Every time you sell it, it goes for Rs 10. So you sold for 100 and you came in at 90. Start again from 90.
So first of all you left yourself behind by 10. Right? Now start from here. So generally I saw that serious money can be made if you sit for 10, 15, 20 years. Meaning that stock of that type is left. Yes. I mean, brother, so many banks came and look, only one HDFC was found. Any example that you felt you held the shares for 20-20 years and there were a lot of ups and downs.
Hero, Infosys, this happened in Hero, I bought it in 96 for ₹30, so the price of ₹30 became exactly what it is, after splitting it used to give a huge dividend, it used to give 50, 60, 70 dividend, so I never felt any pain, we used to distribute so much dividend, its multiple was good, it never became a multiple of 15, 17, 18, it never became a multiple of 50, 60, but the growth was sustained, it used to be very smooth, there used to be 30 taka, 25 taka growth, so the price of ₹30 became 5, 600, sometimes it reached 2000 [sound of clearing throat] three, four, five, only then Honda and Hero broke up.
Both got split. There was a breakup. Now at that time it was that I too had run away. But I was feeling fine. The demand for our motorcycles was also like this. The management is very good. There is transparent management and it is distributing different things in abundance. I am sitting here doing this.
So the price we were paying was around Rs 1200-1500. I think that price increased by only 50-60% in 10 years. From 2005 to 2015 or closer to 14. So that means if you look at it like this, it becomes a painful period. We did not make any money from that money but we made a lot of money between 96 and 2005.
If you do this from 96 to 2015, then you would have earned a lot of money, around 22-25 taka. But if you look behind yourself, you can do everything. I sold it completely for Rs 141 and then I moved ahead from there in other opportunities, so it [sound of clearing throat] also happens like this, for example, if you invest in Infosys and if the accounts of the old Infosys team, Narayan Murthy sir, Chris Bala etc.
are coming out, then how will you have faith in the company, you think you have to buy it for 10, 15, 20 years, but at such a time, you don't get faith, oh brother, but he made the biggest money in Infosys, he made it the fastest, now we bought Infosys for around Rs 6700, the price will be Rs 11,000 and that too within 2 years.
Now brother, we never thought that it would grow so much. Well, I understood that this was not going to last. Because what was happening in Nashik was a white boom at that time. At that time we started going there. So this became clear after the collapse. So we actually started selling from 11,000. But everyone sold it.
Good. While selling, on the day of 91, we sold the last one for ₹200. Yes. From ₹11,000 to ₹200. We sold it for up to ₹200. And sold the last one that day. I said now globalization will end. That's amazing. Well sir, now there is an advantage in your case. You were born very early. Yes, in those days, I mean, in those days, shares were available at very cheap rates.
Someone was available in HDFC Bank. Hero was available for ₹35. Now we are late. There are no such cheap shares in our times. So how do we know now which stock will become a hero 25, 20, 25, 30 years from now ? Someone will become Infosys, someone will become Bharatiya. No, the market has become a bit expensive.
Sure [sound of clearing throat] it got expensive. Your P Multimedium Index score of 1215 is now around 202. So 25 30% 35% the broad market has become much more expensive than before because participation has increased. FI has arrived. Such a huge army is coming. Two to three million demat accounts are being opened every month.
So clearly there is a competition. But it is not that the opportunities are over. C But you see what the ground reality is. When we started, Indian GDP was $ billion dollars. It was a basket case. Meaning, if two Mercedes came to Raipur, you would have known who had two Mercedes and what their number was.
Yes, right now what he means is that there are probably two agencies. Yes, that's right. So you know opportunity size in India has changed completely. So right now we are at four trillion and in the next 15-17 years, we will become a 20-22 trillion dollar economy in the 15 and 16 trillion dollar economy that we talk about.
So this is a different game. Our opportunities are very different. Confidence is different. We have 7800 billion dollars with you, which means if you opened the gate a little, you would find that 100-150 billion dollars have come to you. In U No 92, $2 billion was proving to be a huge loss. For that you had to send gold.
Here you got 136 billion unsecured. So due to this change, the opportunities have changed a lot. It has become very globalized. Opportunity is different. Yes, the market is a bit expensive clearly compared to when we started but the growth opportunity is also huge, so we will make money, you will buy it at a high price and sell it at an even higher price, this is what I am telling you, right, there is a difference between then and now, we used to make a lot of money then in terms of percentage, that is, if you started in that era, now you will become bigger in size because earlier if one trillion was becoming two trillion then only one trillion was your addition.
Now, if Rs 4 to 8 trillion is being added, then extra wealth of Rs 4 trillion will be created. So will it be of much benefit? The advantage is that many new companies will come. And the small companies can grow much faster. If you understand, you can start a small business in Nepal. How much will we become in 10 years?
It will be very difficult to make it worth Rs 100 crore. Making a successful company worth 100 crores here in Nepal. But if it is successful here for 10 years, it will become a company worth Rs 10,000 crore. Now, the field where you sowed the seeds has become very fertile and there is a huge opportunity, understand this, you are sowing seeds worth Rs 4 trillion and you will exit with Rs 16 trillion, this opportunity for us is completely different, it is global, it is digital, which means you have a lot of money and you can buy new and good companies with that money.
Our new viewers, those who are 20-20 years old, those who are 30 years old and are starting their career, they do not have money, we will just sit with a couple of couplets like you, how will it work, there is no need to learn right now, right now we have to experiment like we used to do, buying and selling every day, okay yes, but we have to keep working, yes, I mean, what do you have to do in small cap, in this small cap, it is as exciting a world as it was in 87, let us see, it is still the same, yes, because all the institutions are involved in 350-400 companies.
We, the company below him, do n't even get a meeting with anyone. Correct. So your world is there, isn't it? Yes. You go to Bhubaneswar, go to Rajkot, go to Jaipur, companies are coming from anywhere. As you know, all that is still available in the company like this. 40 taka can one do that one can trade some small cap type shares or some options etc.
Let some capital be created. The initial money should be a little decent. Then I invest them. No, no, no. Brother, I did not do that from the beginning. I don't advise anybody to do that, I mean we started it, we did not have money, so we started broking to earn money. Because we need capital to invest.
So a so we started with broking. So we started earning ₹2 lakh to ₹4 lakh per year. Then it kept increasing and reached crores of rupees. So where did I start getting investment surplus from? From business. Well, what's the fun in the business of capital markets? It does not require money. You earn money without money.
Isn't it? For example, if you are doing brokerage and it is worth crores of rupees, then your expenditure is not even Rs 10 lakh. Meaning, once the office etc. is done, then it is a 100% free cash flow business which is scalable. Is scalable. So, if we had earned Rs 2 crore, then I would have invested the entire Rs 2 crore.
That is why we became a double engine. Do broking as well as investing. That is what is Moti House Wall. You are getting both types of benefits that you have a complete double engine. Yes. So similarly, if the young investors have a salary or business or salary, they must be somewhere, then you earn a salary and there will be another 25, 250, 50 lakhs and spend 50 lakhs as well, start your investing journey with that 50 lakhs, either invest it in mutual funds or use your stock picking ability and if someone really wants to build big wealth then what should I say, that means do not buy too many shares, buy only a few, buy in large quantities, buy for a long time and buy for a long time, for a long time, a small man needs big money for a long time, either start with a big amount, you will become a little bigger, then you will become bigger and bigger, if you are starting with 1000 crores then in 5-7 years you will become 2000 crores, but if I start with 1 crore and I have to make it 100 crores, then it will take me 20 years, there is one more thing which people generally think that let's buy shares for 5 years I bought it for ₹100, it became 175 or 200, okay.
No, I am keeping it for 5 years. It could also be 500. It could also be 1000. In 10 years, 15 years, when it comes back down to 100, then there is a lot of regret. Hey, I wanted to sell it but I made a mistake. How to change this mindset? No, look at the mindset, it is not just about buying shares. It is very important for you to understand the value of that share.
Everyone knows the price. But what is the value and how is the company running ? How is business? How is the management? How is the growth? How are the feelings according to us and him? If any news is coming right now, like whatever news keeps coming up and down, the news is on one side but it is important to see what is happening in the actual business, if the business is running well then there is no tension, yes let the media people shout, what is the problem for us, if the business company is doing as much as you then there is no tension, 99% of me, I also look at the price, but 99% focuses on the business, we business management, business management and growth, these are three things, so I know its price will come sooner or later, oh one more thing, many times it seems that the entire environment is good, the economy is doing well , there is growth also, everything is there.
But if the market does not function then one starts doubting oneself , doubts start arising on the company , on the sector, on the market , and even on the country. Okay friend, everything is not going well with all this. This means if that price increases then everything is fine. Ok. If that price does not increase then everything is bad.
Yes. How did this mindset change? No, we have to drink that bitter sip. That is a patience. One has to swallow the bitter pill. We want it to remain completely green every day. Who wants to see red? Yes it is equal. So, who will look at the rates? Brother, if we remain green every day for half a taka or one taka, then it will become 365 taka.
I just have to earn 15 rupees for myself. So, 15 taka, go five steps forward and come back four steps. Then after that go three steps forward and then come two steps back. We then go through 10 steps and what happens next? He goes 50 steps ahead immediately. Sometimes 50 steps less. So when the one with 50 goes forward, he falls 25 steps.
There are 30 steps. The opportunity is coming, sir. I feel like going 50 steps ahead, if yes, right now this 2 years of peace is very good, then what is it this time, there has been a time wise correction, now the earnings have also picked up, our earnings have fallen only by 15% from 15-17%, that is round understanding, we [sound of clearing throat] so in 27-28 I feel there can be a piece of ₹1500, 25 points up and down of Nifty around ₹1500, so I feel that in 2 years the index will be 30,35000, index will be 35000 [sound of clearing throat] I feel that in 2 years time, so Nifi yes, we are, what is the downside?
Hey brother, when the earnings are that much, then how much earning do you expect, I mean the pay multiple has fallen to 12 10, I mean historically it is 20 only, it is 1820 and we are standing at the same place, standing on the average, right now I think the downside is limited, our upside is quite good, I mean there is a rise of 8000 points, so there is asymmetric pay off, whenever you see the pay off that the down side is 23000 points, the upside is good 8 10, it depends on how long it lasts, so I feel that when we get this type of pay off of 3 1 5:1, it seems systematic.
So I don't know when this will happen. Everyone will trouble you for 6 more months, the IPO guy will trouble you so much that every day [laughs] I don't know whether it is 10,000, 20,000, 300 crores or you can take it too. What's the problem with that ? You will regret it later. So what I'm saying is that this is the way of the market.
The market is made for everyone. It's not just for us. The market is also for the company people. We are there for FI, for DI, for retail. And the special thing is that the biggest players right now are the promoters. We who are becoming listed from unlisted and from listed, Amin are doing QIP and selling blocks, so they too are having a great Diwali [sound of clearing throat] let it go for now, right now I mean this is a good time for them, absolutely this is such a market in which every person can create wealth, you just need to know your role and your responsibility completely, how to create it and in what manner.
Patience, which Ramdev Sir said is the most important thing, one should make long term and big money in this market. Second control on greed, from where you become greedy, what is the rule of the market that you have earned 12% 13%, your greed should go only up to 15, if you think of index plus two and 3% 121 then it is possible that you will earn more, you will definitely earn more, if you think more then you will earn less, you will definitely earn less, keep your expectations low, you will outperform and if you expect too much that I have to double it in a year then that is not going to happen, this is what Ram Sir says, Sir, thank you very much to your market mentors, in this series you have shared your experience of so many years and you have given all the guru mantras, how you can create big and long term wealth by investing for a big and long time.
These are some special mantras for you today. Thank you very much Sir. That's all for today in this special show. Please allow me. Hello.
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