저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
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전쟁 종료와 유가 하락으로 시장에 희망이 보이나, 달러 강세·기업이익 부진·FII 자금 이탈 등으로 위기 국면. 시장 바닥이 형성됐을 가능성을 언급하지만 아직 확실한 상승 랠리는 아니라고 봄. 몬순 부족과 마하라슈트라 용수 제한 등 새로운 리스크 존재. 장기적으로는 재생에너지·에너지 전환, 인프라, 국방·사이버보안, 신기술(AI, 데이터센터) 테마를 제시하나 개별 종목 선택은 별도 과제라고 강조. 인도 시장 중심 발언.
다듬은 글
Come join us in the program, well-known market veteran and very reputed investor Vijay Kedia sir is joining us. You obtained B.Com degree from Kolkata University. Apart from that, you started your parental brokerage business at the age of 19. You have a deep experience of more than 2530 years in the equity market and commodity market and everyone is very impressed with Kedia Sahab's stock picking and his art of music.
Kedia Sahab, good morning, welcome. Thank you very much Sir for giving us your time. We thought that some happy moments are about to come, so let us meet you and invite you. Finally, the war is ending, crude oil has come down, so what can I say, good days have come for us globally. So, Sir, hello to all you viewers and I was listening to this, before your ad, you were saying that leave these small things and choose some big moves in the big markets.
What you were saying, at that time Sir, I remembered a couplet. If you permit, I can recite it [sound of clearing throat]. Sure, sure, Sir. Thank you Sir, that couplet is like this: Swan and heron are alike. Mansarovar is the mother. The heron chooses the mother's knife; the swan eats the pearl. So, Sir, the essence is that both are present in Mansarovar.
Some people choose pearls, some choose diamonds and some choose fish. The thing is that I always say in the stock market that it is like the ocean, some people come here to take a bath, soak their feet and go away, some people collect whatever is there here, collect shells, some people do fishing and some people extract minerals from here.
So the more you go inside, the deeper you go, the more courage you have, the more patience you have, the more benefit you will get. So Sir, this is a summary of the stock market and coming to your point, this is about the war, so better late than never, this is a ray of hope in the market and off course it seems that perhaps, yes brother, whatever the problem may be, see, there is a very good rule of the stock market Sir and we can be wrong on this that that rule is not repeated all the time but majority of the time, that rule is repeated that the sentiments that are formed here are formed in crisis Sir.
So what could be a bigger crisis for the market than this, just imagine where our dollar has reached? Where has crude reached? The earnings of companies are also poor. FIIs have withdrawn so much money from the market and the narrative of their return and India is being spread everywhere, everything is in a wrong way.
Negative rumours are spreading that FI will take out more and will take them to Korea and Taiwan and will take them to Mars. People even took money to Mars. You can see what is the value of SpaceX. So technically the money went to Mars also. So sir, this will continue but in times of crisis a bottom is formed here.
This is the law of the market. A top is formed in euphoria and a bottom is formed in crisis. So it seems that all the crises that we have faced in the last two-three months, the high that has been going on in 24, perhaps it should roughly end somewhere here. You are also right in saying that the bottom bunth was right for you in the crisis itself.
It happens at this time. Ah, now things are getting better but at that time, during crisis, one feels very scared. The noise is such that everyone feels that now if targets of 22,000 out of 24,000, 20,000 out of 22,000, 16,000 out of 20,000 come on Nifty then it cannot be taken. It is not too late yet.
It may be okay at ₹24,000, we have come up a little from the bottom, but what do you think, investors who want to invest money with a long-term vision can still see an opportunity, sir. My personal view is that as long as you feel fear, it means you are alive. The day you do not feel fear in the market, then you have become very overconfident and are about to put everything at stake.
And the market is such that the fear of not being overconfident, the fear of living is also a taste. Sir, if you are considered a renowned Hindi scholar, then you have very good knowledge. There is a taste of fear, out of the nine tastes, fear is also a taste. Sir, one should be afraid, but one should also face fear.
This is the problem of not feeling afraid. I faced it with fear, this is your courage, so this should definitely be considered in the market. And secondly, let me tell you one thing, sir, which I understand, these market problems never end. Market problems keep going on in the market. Sir, let me tell you four lines one by one.
I pray that one [sound of clearing throat] problem is solved and another is ready to go, the art is to keep moving, this is the essence of life. So this is the essence of the market also, sir. One problem will end and another will come. Now, for example, understand that such a big problem of war has ended.
Now you see the problem of monsoon is knocking at your door. Now everyone is coming and saying that there is monsoon deficit, in some states it is 62%, in some states it is so much percent and the average size of the deficit would be 25-30%, whatever it is. [sound of clearing throat] And if it goes below 90%, then the situation becomes a little critical.
Now the Maharashtra Government has also said that yes brother, there will be water cuts now. Water will not enter inside the construction. They will be cut off. Sir, this has also become a big problem for the market. You think how big is the contribution of Maharashtra in GDP, how big is the contribution of real estate and construction in that, if there is a cut in water in Maharashtra then it is a problem, but what will you do now, you will have to fight with these problems, you will have to face these fears, so you have to construct your portfolio in such a way sir that saying all weather does not do anything, it is just empty rhetoric, but to some extent its resistance power should be high to face these problems, so one will have to be prepared for the problems.
There is still no clear cut game. I do n't think that once the war is over and we are supposed to be at ₹24,000, which you are saying right now, I don't remember wherever the index has reached. There will be a one-way rally from here, sir. I am not in that camp. I don't think so. I think going forward the market will wait a bit.
See sir what happens because of war ? The man comes out of the ICU or comes out of the hospital. But still the weakness remains. Still the doctor says brother, take rest for 10-1 days and take care of yourself [sound of clearing throat]. Do n't jump around. So now we have come out of a big danger. We have come out of the problem of the economy.
We will have to be prepared to face the second danger. You will have to warm up a bit. You will have to eat well. You will have to take healthy shares and keep your mind positive. Well, then you will get a big victory in future. Sir, see, when the market falls, your portfolio must also go down a lot, that is, it must go down less as compared to others, but it must go down, so like I just now, you recited two couplets to you, you also do Sherveer, you also sing songs so well, so even at that time, that is, when the portfolio is down, do you still remember the couplets, Sher and all these songs or do you change them a bit at that time, then at that time you sing more sad songs, Sir, like this Sir, first of all let me tell you this.
The answer to the first thing you said is that if the market falls, my shares will also fall, they will fall to a lesser extent. So let me tell you sir, my shares fall more in that. I don't fall short. Well, yes, yes, my performance deteriorates the most, sir. So, at that time, I become that donkey investor that you have written as S investor.
So yes, this is a fact. Because Sir, what about me, all my micro cap, small cap, mid cap, all those are the shares of the poor. I have the maximum monsoon, it rains, the sun shines, so the poor thing gets the heat, whatever little money there is, my shares are liquid in it, so they fall more, so they fall by 40%, 50%, 60%, Sir, so now by saying this, it does not seem to make any difference that yes brother, these have fallen, I assume that yes, these are going to fall, the market will sink, so what is the reason for this, Sir, when the market rises, when there is a bull market, then the index [nasal sound] will rise by 20%, then my shares will probably rise by 50% or 100% and if the market rises by 20, 25, 30, 40%, then my shares can probably rise two, three, four, five times, there is such scope, it is not like this in every share, so the first thing is this Sir and the second thing is that singing, Sir, what about singing, right now that is my life, Sir, that market meditation and music It is my life, so I am really blessed by God that the increase in market hours does affect my mental state in some way, but now I have become so used to getting out of it that it does not last long.
It feels like, yes brother, it is okay, my lifestyle is not changing, so there is no problem, so I sing only those songs which are in my mind, be it sad or romantic or of aspiration, they keep playing, Sir, I understand, Sir, when the market is bad, you reach the other two M factors, meditation and music, they balance them out and later, when there is a boom, your main M factor, money, must definitely come in [laughs].
Tell me, Sir, you are known for always finding new themes, something different, thinking beyond the market, and thinking a little deeper, what next, I mean, what could be the next big thing ? Now what do you think are some of the things that we should focus on where something big can happen in the next two, five, ten years?
So Sir, if someone asks me what do I do? If I do n't trade, what do I do? So I always say that my job is to think. Thinking about my raw material, sir, and my capital other than money, it can also be misuse of money. You can lose money and I also lose it. It is not the case that four to five out of my 10 shares are hits.
The rest don't work for me. But the bouquet has to be made complete. So my job is to think inside that. So what to think about? Do n't think about the past tense. Learning from past mistakes and how to rectify them in the future. This is my karma, sir. And all the time, the only thing I do is to find new stories.
Finding new themes. Like sir, I also have a code that bull market is like sunshine. It is always there somewhere. So somewhere or the other you will find bull market in individual stocks. In individual themes, you will get the sunshine that is the bull market. The index does not introduce him, sir. The index is not its complete pure end indicator.
So if I tell you the truth, I don't even remember what index is running. It is 75,000, it is 76,000. It seems like it is around here. So my job is to find new stories , find new themes. Sir, the new story that I have just told you has been going on in my mind for the last one or two years, one and a half years.
I named it Rise RISC in English. So I feel like I have said it many times that just like oxygen is necessary for the body, energy is necessary for any nation. I can't survive without it. If energy stops, a nation stops. Sir, we did not take advantage of solar, wind and any other renewable energy. We should have taken it up 20-25 years ago.
Ah, whatever other countries have done, whatever they are doing. No problem, better late than never, when I open my eyes it is morning. I always speak. Now the government is focused on renewable energy companies. In two, three or four years, you will see that such names are coming into the market which were not known anywhere in the renewable energy companies.
So I like renewable energy and energy transition and I stand for infrastructure sir, without infrastructure our 10 trillion, 12 trillion or 50 trillion whatever we talk about, it is impossible, so infrastructure and infrastructure shares are also down by 50-60% from the top sir, which were sold in 23-24 and you will see orders for them every month, some company gets orders of 150 crore, 500 crore, 2000 crore as per its capacity, infrastructure seems good to me and RIS stands for security sir, security also includes defence and cyber security.
Cyber security is a slightly new sector, one should be careful in it. Clear cut it doesn't have this inside. Things are changing very fast in this and but it will play its role and defence security, which you know, will also do its own and the theme of E is emerging technology, be it AI, be it data centre or other greenlight, it has come into it and whatever is there like this, understand it, we do it like GP, VP, UP etc.
and whatever new technology is coming, but it does not mean that you should buy any shares in it, selection of shares in it is a different issue and this theme is a different issue. Most stocks are not cheap. So uh you have to do your homework. The thing is. That's absolutely right. So this is the best theme of the sir, the advice to invest in renewable energy infrastructure security i.e.
defense related shares and also emerging themes which are the new themes that you get from time to time. Kedia sir, thank you very much. The time you took and the detailed experience you shared along with the skills you taught me to be happy while making money in the market are truly invaluable. They will be more useful.
Thank you so much sir and may God keep your smile like this and keep increasing it. Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you sir. Thank you.
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