저자: RakeshJhunjhunwala · 외국인
요약 보기
인도 경제와 시장에 대한 낙관론을 펼친 인터뷰로, 구체적인 종목 매수 추천이나 가격 목표는 없음. 경제 전망: 좋은 몬순과 정부 개혁 효과로 경제가 개선되고 있으며, 인도 성장률이 8%대 기저에 정착할 것이라 봄. 내년 이후 10~15% 시장 상승을 기대. 정책·국가: 모디 총리의 정책을 긍정적으로 평가하고 '브랜드 모디'가 인도 성장 동력이라 주장. 외교·안보 측면의 외과적 타격 등도 장기 효과가 있다고 언급. 미국 대선: 트럼프 당선 가능성은 낮다고 보며, 민주당 상·하원 장악 시 시장에 부정적일 수 있다고 언급. 시장 영향은 제한적이라는 취지. IT·유로존: 인도 IT 산업은 비용 경쟁력으로 성장이 이어질 것이라 봄. 유로존 붕괴는 가능성이 낮지만 주시 필요. 타타그룹: 타타 지주사·타이탄 등에 투자 중이며, 미스트리 분쟁이 그룹 이미지에 일시적 타격을 줬지만 장기적으로 타타의 가치는 유지될 것이라 봄.
다듬은 글
Big Bull Rakesh Jhunjhunwala has said that Prime Minister Modi is doing a good job and the government measures are gradually having an impact. Speaking to Zee Business on the occasion of Diwali, Jhunjhunwala said that the economic situation is improving due to a good monsoon and the investment environment in the Indian market is improving.
It is Diwali day, it is the day of trading and with me at this time is the biggest investor of the market, Mr. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala. Happy Diwali to Zee Business and Happy Diwali to Zee Viewers and to all Indians and thank you for having me many congratulations and best wishes for the New Year. Thank you so much sir.
Sir, if we talk from last Diwali to this Diwali, and you know, in your opinion, you are considered the biggest, in a way, God. In terms of investors, in which sector did you gain the most profits? You know, I definitely count losses in everything, I do not count profits. So, if I ask you, overall, this year was good and this is not an interview about my portfolio and my profit and loss, sir, this is about the market and sir, about the market.
If you talk about it, Sir, how do you rate the growth of the Indian economy from last Diwali to this Diwali? It does n't seem like the growth of the economy is good. It will grow by 7%. This year, the rains have been good. The effect of the steps taken by the government in the last two-three years is gradually coming and now the Diwali monsoon will come.
After a good monsoon, news is coming from everywhere that Diwali sales have been very good. Gradually, I think the savings rate in India will increase. Inflation has decreased and this investment will increase. So, I am very hopeful that growth at 8% in India will become a base and a new normal. So Sir, if we talk about the coming year, then a little more good luck can be considered because GST is on the rise and also you know about rate cuts.
Look, India grows every year, there is some reason or the other, but at the pace of India, you cannot reduce it from a certain level nor can you increase it from a certain pace. So, I think GST will come. There is infrastructure investment by the government. FDI has been allowed in many things. There will be some nationalization in direct taxes.
We are delegating it to the states and building roads. So, the effect of all these things will come gradually. Who could have imagined that there would be so much power in India that there would be no buyers. I feel that I am an India Bull and I feel that being an India Bull has served me well in life.
So, I feel that no market will grow at a very fast pace. I think the market will consolidate now and with the upswing, so sir, we can expect growth of 10-15 percent initially or next year. I think that between this century and the next century, the market will definitely reach new highs, but it may not be initially, it may be after some time.
And sir, if we talk about the global map, then India is going to grow because of its USP growth. You feel that because of Brand Modi, Brand Modi is a part of India. So, what ever India collectively is a collection of so many brands and one of the most important brands is Modi ji. So, India's importance is budget growth.
And apart from growth, there is the rule of law, free press, democracy, people's skills, so many things that make India what it is. So Sir, after the surgical strike, do you feel that this brand Modi has gained more power? I don't think so. It's because Modi ji doesn't want India to do what it needs to do.
I mean, we ca n't sit wearing bangles all day long. Modi ji has taken many steps. I am a follower and a fan of Modi ji, and Modi ji has taken many steps. Perhaps the effect of some steps seems to be immediate, the effect will come gradually, and this has a long-term effect. One long-term effect is that it is sending a message to Pakistan that if you do something, we will not remain hidden.
And Sir, in the midst of all this, a controversy has arisen about banning Pakistani artists or you know, banning films. What is your view on that? See, normally, I feel that the people of India and Pakistan do not want this, they want friendship. If you meet any Pakistani in New York, they get to know you very well.
They love you. Meet me in Dubai. But in this main story, there is a Pakistani man who wants that the conflict between Pakistan and India should never end so that his importance keeps increasing and his constant tension. Normally I am in favor of cultural exchange and people exchange, but if there is constant fiction and taste attack by one country and another, then it becomes incorrect for us Indians to punish that country in any form, be it in culture, be it in trade, be it in any form.
But Sir, if we are talking about relationships like right now and the US presidential elections are just on the cards, then do you think that it will affect the market? I think if Trump comes to power, then there might be some impact on its result, but I do not think that Trump is going to become the President.
And the second thing, I think that one thing is very important that if both the Senate and the House of Representatives win, then the markets will not like it, understand Clinton. She won and the Democrats got a majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, so people did not like or dislike, so you know who favors you personally, Trump and Clinton, those things, devil and deep sea, I was afraid of Trump, a man who has a nuclear trigger under his hand can do anything, some people cannot think what to do, so people are worried that if he comes, there will be economic problems, I am worried that if he launches a nuclear war, then everyone will die, but sir, even if there is no nuclear war, like you know, just in case, no one is in favor of such a bill, but it is not good for the markets, what is the point of Trump coming, yes, but it does not seem that Trump will come, the way he has talked about women, according to my opinion, many men would do it, but the way he talked about his daughter, no woman can bear it like that, no woman can bear it, talk of someone like this, also I think he is extremist, I do my personal judgment, it is not me I don't think any expert on American politics, and Hillary Clinton is the ultimate politician, will maintain her status.
Sir, what we're talking about, you know, global issues, so the global tensions and global noise we're hearing about, do you think that's a huge challenge for the IT sector? And in terms of growth, I don't think the IT sector's growth will return. Many times, people in India have written about the IT sector, but think about one thing: software applications keep increasing.
India's cost advantage. As Indian companies grow, their cost advantage keeps increasing. So how can software companies not grow? I'm talking from a very general perspective. I do n't have any specific figures, so I do n't think growth will decrease or increase significantly in the Western world. So, my only fear internationally is what will happen to the euro?
The euro zone will never collapse. I think that can be a very destabilizing factor, but you're really scared of that. I mean. I am not scared of that but I am concerned about it and we should keep our eye on it. We are talking about sectors which are the most promising for you in the coming year. Let us talk about such sectors.
There is Muhurat trading. The issues that are being seen right now, you know you are also a big investor in Tata Sus, Titan, so these news that are coming from Bombay House, you know, do they disturb you? Well, the question is, we should sit back and think that House of Tata is a 148-year-old institution.
I think when a person thinks about this matter after 30 years and thinks about the history of Tata, then this will be a small thing. So, I think House of Tata is greater than this, it will rise. Now, this and as an investor, I am not concerned at all, but like for the time being, the image has been tarnished.
Well, more facts have to come. I don't think anybody, image is tarnished because nobody Now what are the facts and sir, the claim of Rs 18 billion write down of Mr Mistry, you know my question is that he said this, he should have said this when he is the chairman, that my husband is talking about bad debts, he is not talking about his wife, then he is actually injuring or damaging himself, I am a shareholder of Tata Motors, he did not like the Nano project, so he had to shut down that project, at least I am concerned about other things, he is not interested in the company, so I am not being a chairman, and then having released it, this I think is not in good, but then he claims to have some emotional issue for not shutting down some projects, whose emotion is he saying that you know, the company has an emotion, so he is running a company, not running a commercial fact, I am not concerned about the emotion, I am concerned about the company's profit And return on capital only that what it said is that he was in charge, why did he not take the disease with him today, because he was empowered to so he is kind of turning his own image, but he became the part and you think that in the long run all these disputes will settle down and you will also think that after 30 years, when you think about Tata, then no one will talk about it.
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