저자: RakeshJhunjhunwala · 외국인
요약 보기
2016년 디왈리 시기 라케시 준준왈라 인터뷰. 결론: 인도 경제는 연 8% 성장 기조이며 시장은 단기 조정 후 상방 편향으로 완만히 상승할 것으로 본다. 거시 경제: 올해 인도 성장률 8% 전망, 좋은 monsoon과 디왈리 판매 호조, 저축률·투자 증가 기대, 인플레이션 하락. 향후 GST 도입, 인프라 투자, 직접세 관련 조치 등이 점진적으로 효과를 낼 것으로 봤다. 시장 전망: 시장은 빠르게 오르지 않고 조정(consolidation) 후 상승 편향을 보일 것. 내년 10~15% 상승 가능성 언급, 이번 Samvat과 다음 Samvat 사이에 신고가 경신 가능성 제시하나 초기가 아닌 시간이 지난 뒤일 수 있다고 함. 중소형주(midcap) 밸류에이션 과열에 대해서는 시장 특성상 급등 후 조정은 불가피하다는 입장. 정책·지정학: 모디 정부의 개혁 조치를 지지. 서지컬 스트라이크 이후 파키스탄에 메시지를 보내야 한다는 입장, 파키스탄 예술인 금지 논란에 대해서는 양국 국민은 우호를 원하며 문화 교류 필요성을 강조. 미국 대선: 트럼프 당선 가능성은 낮다고 봤고, 트럼프의 인격·핵 통제 우려를 언급. 결과가 시장에 영향을 줄 수 있다고 했으나 세부 방향은 제시하지 않음. 기타 리스크: IT 산업은 인도의 비용 우위가 커지고 있어 성장 둔화를 크게 우려하지 않음. 유로존 붕괴 가능성은 가장 큰 불안 요인으로 지목. 타타 그룹: 148년 역사의 타타 그룹은 장기적으로 더 커질 것으로 보며, 미스트리와의 분쟁은 일시적 이슈로 평가. 자신은 타타모터스 주주로서 장기 보유 입장. 투자 조언: 합리적 기대 수익을 가지고, 탐욕과 공포에 휘둘리지 말 것. 인도를 믿고 장기 투자할 것을 권고.
다듬은 글
It's Diwali, it's Moor trading day, and with me right now is the market's biggest investor, Mr. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala. So welcome to Zee Business and Happy Diwali. Happy Diwali to all Zee viewers and to all Indians. And thank you for having me a very Happy New Year. Thank you so much, Sir. Sir, if we talk about the period from last Diwali to this Diwali, and you know, in your opinion, you are considered the biggest god in a way.
In terms of investors, in which sector did you gain the most profits? You know, I definitely count losses, I never count profits. So, if I ask you, overall, this year was good. And this interview is not about my portfolio and my profits and losses, sir, this is about the market. And sir, if you talk about the market, sir, how do you rate the growth of the Indian economy from last Diwali to this Diwali?
How do you rate the growth of the economy? It seems the growth of the economy is good. This year, there will be a growth of 8 per cent this year. And this year, the rains have been good, which is why the government The government has taken so many steps in the last two-three years, their effect is gradually coming and now the Diwali monsoon will come, after a good monsoon, news is coming from everywhere that the Diwali sales have been very good, gradually I think the savings rate will increase in India, inflation has decreased and investment will increase, so I am very hopeful that growth at 8 in India will become a base and a new normal, so sir, if we talk about the coming year, then a little more good luck can be considered because GST is on the row and less, see the talk of rate cut, India grows every year, India grows, some reason or the other comes up, but the pace of India is, you cannot reduce it from a certain level, nor can you increase it from a certain pace, it seems that GST will come, there is infrastructure investment, FD has been included in many things, some nationalization will be done in direct taxes, we are delegating status, we are building roads, the effect of all these things will come gradually, who could have thought that there would be so much power in India that there is no left, so I feel that I am an India Bull and I feel and Being India Bull is well in life right, so I feel that the market will not grow very fast very quickly, I think the market will consolidate now but with an upward bias, so sir, we can expect growth of 10-15 percent, next year I think that between this Samvat and next Samvat, the market will definitely make a new high, but it may not be initially, it may be after some time, and sir, if we talk about the global map, then India is being known because of its USP growth, do you think that because of Brand Modi, well, Brand Modi is part of India, so what ever India is collectively a collection of so many brands, out of which one very important brand is Modi ji, so India has got importance, I mean because of the growth, and apart from growth, there is stability, there is free press, there is democracy, there is skill of the people, so there are many things which make India, which makes India, many things make India, so sir, after the surgical strikes, do you feel that you know In this brand, Brand Modi has added another power to it.
I don't think so. It is a, it is a, I think, color to say Modi ji has done what India needs to do. I mean, we ca n't sit wearing bangles all day long in our lives. Modi ji has taken a lot of steps. I am a follower and a fan of Modi ji and Modi ji has taken a lot of steps. Perhaps the effect of a few steps seems to be immediate.
The effect of a few things will come gradually and its long term effect is that a long term effect is that a message has to be sent to Pakistan that if you do something, we will not remain hidden. And Sir, in the midst of all this, a controversy has arisen that Pakistani artists should be banned or you know films should be banned.
What is your take on that? See, normally I feel that the people of India and Pakistan do not want this, they want friendship. If you meet any Pakistani in New York, they love you very much. If you meet me in Dubai, but this main conspiracy is the Pakistani Army which wants that Pakistan and India should never be united.
So that the fight never ends, so that its importance remains big and our constant, normally I am in favor of cultural exchange and people exchange, but this constant fiction and taste stuck by one country and another, it became important for us to both the countries in any form, in culture, in trade, in any form, but sir, we are talking about relations right now and the US presidential election is just not the card, so do you think that its result will affect the market, I think if Trump comes to power then something might happen, but I do not think that Trump is going to become the president, and secondly, I think that one thing is very important, in the House of Senate and Representatives, both the Senates were won, so the market did not like it, understand that Clinton won and the Democrats got majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, then people did not like or dislike, so you know who favors you personally, Trump and Clinton, well, this thing is devil and deep down I was afraid of Trump It is true that a man who has a nuclear trigger under his hand can do anything at any time.
Some people cannot think what to do. So people are worried that if he comes, there will be economic problems. I am worried that if he goes nuclear, then life will be affected. But sir, even if there is no nuclear attack, like no, just in this case, no one is in favor, so much money is not good for the market, it is not good for the market either.
It does not seem that Trump will come. The way Trump will come, as per my opinion, if a man talks about women, many men do it, but the way he talked about his daughter, no woman can like that, no woman can bear it, that someone talks of a daughter like this, also I think he is extremist, I don't think my personal judgment is that, not that.
I am any expert on American politics, I do not think that he and Hillary Clinton are the ultimate politicians, she will maintain the status quo. And sir, what we are talking about is that you know, we are talking about global issues. So, from the global talk and global news that we are hearing, do you think that there is a huge challenge for the IT sector?
And in terms of growth, I don't think the IT sector's growth will come back. Many times in India, people have written about the IT sector, but think about one thing: software applications keep increasing. India's cost advantage is increasing as Indian companies are gaining size, so the cost advantage is increasing.
So how can software companies not grow? I am talking from a very general point of view. I don't have any specific figures, so I don't think growth will decrease or increase much in the Western world. So, my only fear internationally is what will happen to the Euro? If the Eurozone ever collapses, I think that can be a very destabilizing factor.
But you really shouldn't be afraid of that. I mean, I am not afraid of that, but I am concerned about it. And we should keep an eye on it. We are talking about sectors. Which one do you think is the most promising for the House of Tata in the coming times? It is a 148 year old institution, I think when a person thinks about this matter after 30 years, thinks about the history of Tata, then this will be small.
So I think House of Tata is greater than it will rise. Now this and as an investor, I am not concerned, but like for the time being, the image has been turned down, more facts have to come. I don't think anybody imagines it, but nobody knows what the fact is. And sir, the Rs 18 billion write down claim of Mr Mistry, why did he say this when he was the chairman, that my wife is speaking after the bad debts, hey, when you were my wife, why didn't he say that, you are actually injuring and damaging yourself.
I am a shareholder of Tata Motors. Hey, if he did not like the Nano project, then he should have stopped the project. As far as I am concerned, all he has to do is act in the interest of the shareholders of Tata Motors. Not so I think having not acted, neither was he the chairman and then having been released, this I think is not in good, but then he claims to have these emotional issues for not, you know, shutting down some projects, whose emotion is he saying that you know, the company's emotion was, so he is running a company, not an emotion, running a commercial fact, not an emotion, I am concerned about the company's profits and return on capital, the only thing I want to say is that he was in charge, why did he not take the decision, where he says today, the color which he was empowered to, so in he is kind of turning his own image because he has been part of the house of Tata and you think that in the long run, all these disputes will be settled down and you will be a blip, when you think about Tata after 30 years, no one will talk about bluff, true and sir, I feel House of Tata Institutions and nobility are greater than our trust in your law.
Your investment is still 100%. And sir, if we talk about the overall valuation of midcaps, what would be your take on this? The pockets of every pocket, we can't go fast. This happens in every market, every rise. It is inevitable, it is a bad market. And today is Diwali time, sir, puja is going to be held at your place.
Did you watch any movie, Mushkil or Shivaay, which one did you like with your family? I last watched Pink and I liked Pink very much. Do you have any plan for today? Any special plan? I have to do puja with my family, do some business, burst crackers with my son. Then Aamir Khan invited me to his house for a party.
And today there is a scene of a party with the entire family. Bakul sir, one wish if you give to the audience, how to invest wisely? Have the right attitude. Expect reasonable returns. This is not a resco, this is a stock market. In alternative thing you get a return of 6 sats, in this you can get 18-20 ton and no one should get greedy, don't be overcome by fear and don't be carried away by greed and believe in India, happy investing, happy Diwali, God bless and also the message of like you know how one should just give up, what else to say, thank you so much sir, thank you sir, have a great Diwali
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