저자: CouchInvestor · 외국인
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마이크론은 엔비디아가 1년 전 겪은 성장 사이클 초입에 있을 수 있다는 주장. 분기 매출 58% 증가, 가이던스 상향, HBM 공급 부족과 AI 수요로 메모리 업황 개선을 근거로 제시. 다만 메모리는 경기순환이 강한 업종이라 이익률이 급락할 수 있어 타이밍 주의 강조. 주가는 2000년 고점을 넘었고 주봉 RSI 과매수 구간이라고 언급.
다듬은 글
is Micron Technology the next Nvidia what do I mean by that not that they're going to make gpus stuff like that no but is micro technology right now at the same stage of their growth cycle as Nidia was just a year or so ago more recently they reported their latest earnings report great numbers for the quarter and for guidance as well stock went up 15% or so now if we currently look at the state of the stock in the company one share will cost you $110 market cap 122 billion ion a forward PE of 24.5 times as you can see despite the stock being up quite a lot the forward PE has dropped a lot we've seen that with Nvidia as well that's because the business suddenly is accelerating top and bottom line much faster than what the stock is reflecting now with regards to companies like Micron like Samsung that well not like Samsung but Samsung also deals in the memory side of the semiconductor industry it is a very very cyclical business business so yes sometimes you will have those stages this was of course after the pandemic but sometimes you will have those stages where profitability gets thrown out of the window and then you're going to go back to a growth cycle which in my opinion is what we are going to experience or what we are starting to experience right now we can also see this in the analyst estimates for the coming fiscal years fisc year 2024 sales growth of 55.
73% eps 59 cents you don't see a growth percentage here year over year because last year that was negative but then fisc year 2025 another 40.5% growth year-over-year for sales and a 1,1 162% increase in EPS then moving to FIS year 2026 we only get 10.6% growth year-over-year for sales but another close to 30% year-over-year growth for EPS this is what I'm saying maybe Micron is entering that growth cycle that Nvidia has experienced a year or so ago of course different comp companies different businesses but with the huge refresh cycle that we're about to experience for the consumer for the big tech companies as well with the new data center chips stuff like that AI applications I do think that a company like Micron is definitely going to benefit from that I'll explain throughout the video why and show you what the company has reported as well if you enjoy this type of video leave it a thumbs up subscribe if have not we really appreciate that want to support me even further do check out the link down in the description and in the pin comment to get the top 10 best stocks to buy now or go to.com for/ investor thank you very much I'll start off with a comment from the CEO so it says here our premium product portfolio positions us well to deliver a strong fiscal second half of 2024 We Believe Micron is one of the biggest beneficiaries in the semiconductor industry of the multi-year opportunity enabled by AI he already gives us here a couple of hints saying that he sees this growth continuing for a couple of years they even gave us a bit more information in the earning score which was pretty nice to hear I'll first start off with the highlights and then we're going to jump into the earning score so revenue for this quarter came in at $5.8 billion that's up 23% quarter over quarter and up 58% year-over-year as for the performance by technology they have dram and nand so dram came in at $4.2 billion representing 71% of total revenue revenue increased 21% quarter over quarter n asps increased by High Teens quarter over quarter as well bid shipments increased by low single digit percentage quarter over quarter as for nand $1.6 billion Revenue representing 27% of total revenue revenue increased here 27% quarter over quarter esps increased by over 30% quarter over quarter and bit shipments decreased by low single digit percentage quarter over quarter as well now for those of you that need a small let's say introduction class the semiconductor Industries get split into two segments let's say the logic and the memory logic you've got players like Nvidia MD gpus CPUs stuff like that these type of chips perform logic functions processing bits of information ones and zeros to transform inputs into outputs they don't have any capacity to store this information they simply perform operations on it then you've got the memory chips they store information information so the logic chip can easily fetch data and perform operations on that then more specifically with regards to Micron memory division they're segmented by dram and N since I like video games I'll use an example of a video game loading screen so this is what happens when you've got information memory that is transferred from an SSD to Dam to save the data from previous game sessions that is transferred from dram to SSD before the game turns off this is why you usually have to save your game before you're PowerWing off now the trade-off between Dam and N is in memory latency in other words how long it takes to process to fetch the bits from memory and I would like to mention also that this is a heavily cyclical segment of the semiconductor industry and not as easy to ramp up and manufacture as CPUs and gpus then moving on to the revenue by business units so compute and networking increased 26% quarter over quarter and 59% year-over-year as for mobile that increased 24% quarter over quarter and 69% year-over-year embedded 7% quarter over quarter 28% year-over-year and the storage won 39% quarter over quarter increase and 79% year over-year as for non-gaap operating results gross margin came in at 20% operating income $24 million net income 476 $6 million diluted earnings per share of 42 cents and cash from operations Gap $1.2 billion same quarter last year these results were negative from fiscal year 2021 to fiscal quarter 2 of 2024 they returned $5.3 billion to shareholders from repurchases and dividends including $4.1 billion used to repurchase 60 million shares then as for guidance for Q3 they expect Revenue to come in at $6.6 billion gross margin 26.5% so you're seeing here increases year over-ear and quarter over quarter diluted earnings per share at 45 the market was of course very happy with that guidance now how come that guidance is so good again this is because of the refresh cycle and the positive impact of AI more recently we've obviously had the news that Nvidia announced its next Generation Blackwell GPU architecture based AI systems which Prov provides a 33% increase in hbm 3E content continuing a trend of steadily increasing hbm content per GPU and hbm means high bandwidth memory now they also say here that their hbm is sold out for calendar 2024 and the overwhelming majority of their 2025 supply has already been allocated this is again going back to my point I made at the start this video this could be the same stage of nvidia's growth of last year but this time for micron they also told us that they project to end fiscal 2024 with low double digit percentage less wafer capacity on both dram and N than our peak level in fiscal 2022 as discussed previously the ramp of hbm production will constraint Supply growth in non hbm products industrywide hbm3 consumes approximately three times the wafer Supply sd5 to produce a given number of bits in the same technology node with increased performance and packaging complexity across the industry we expect the trade ratio for hbm 4 to be even higher than the trade ratio of hbm 3E we anticipate strong hbm demand due to AI combined with increasing silicon intensity of the hbm road map to contribute to tight Supply conditions for Dam across all the end markets this is basically one of the orange Flags or things to watch out for it's great that one side of the business is suddenly well seeing increase demand increase pricing as well momentum but on the other side it might or it is currently hurting the other side of the business this is what a couple of people have already told me on X yes the company is now in a growth cycle but it is a growth cycle that is also coming at a cost of some parts of their own business so it's a trade-off right now remains to be seen currently I do still think that there are more Tailwinds than headwinds and so if we look at the stock itself it is now higher than its peak back in 2000 July 2000 the do com bubble it took them 24 years to go over that all-time high now looking at it more recently you can see that here 2021 2022 a double top then we went all the way back down to around $50 found some support there you might say that this might be a cup and handle pattern foring which is very very bullish which also mean that the stock might go down a little bit but I mean as we've seen with Nvidia stock goes down for not that long and then it continues its way up and up and up for those interested the 200 day moving average sits at $77 the 50-day one at 88.2 and the 20-day one at $92 21 cents RSI on the weekly is now officially overbought so to conclude great quarter great guidance great momentum for this company I do think that we're going to see some Nvidia type of movement in this company and in this stock the thing here is that you have to time it not to Perfection but you have to time it much better than Nvidia because like I said this is a heavy heavy cyclical business so don't be greedy when you go on your way up cuz the way down can be also very very fast so that will be it for this video if you enjoy these type of videos leave it a thumbs up subscribe if you have not and I'll see you all in the next one bye-bye
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