저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
Tom Lee는 관세 불확실성이 4월 2일 이후 해소되면 시장이 V자 반등할 수 있다고 주장한다. 근거로 현금성 자산 증가(머니마켓펀드 약 8,570억달러 증가), 마진 디레버리징 진행, Mag7 순노출 최저 수준, 롱숏 비율 저점을 든다. 과거 서브프라임 등 역사적 침체 시 주가가 경기침체 종료 전에 먼저 반등했다는 점과 과거 10% 조정 후 반등 통계(1개월 +2.9%, 3개월 +8.2%, 12개월 약 +20%)를 제시한다. 최고 10일 수익률을 놓치면 수익률이 크게 떨어진다며 장기 보유와 분할 매수를 권한다. 다만 단기적으로는 틀릴 수 있다고 인정한다.
다듬은 글
another week another bullish commentary from Tom Lee now with Tom Lee it's pretty simple you either love the guy or you do not right it's pretty simple you might say oh he's a Perma bull he's always bullish even when the market goes down he predicted that we're going to bounce back already in March and look we're already at the end of March and we're still not bouncing back although you might say that we have more bouncing back days in the last week than we did previously but okay I get the argument but the thing with Tom Lee unlike with Katy wood for example is that Tom actually provides data so he tells his story but he tells the story based on the data that he has and that we have actually and if it doesn't make sense to you then fine but he shows you the data he's like okay this has happened in the past if we look at all these figures if we take the average we think that this might happen again again just because it happens before doesn't mean it's going to happen again in the future I think we can all agree on that but if if you look at the data if you look at the story if you listen to his arguments you cannot say oh this guy is full of it no he makes a compelling story of course in the short term he can be wrong I believe at the end of 2024 we talked about his projections for 2025 he said that first half of 2025 would actually be quite good second half not so good and I think right now we well we started the year quite well but then since mid-February things were going downhill a little bit of course we still have 2 months left or so a little bit more than that to reach the first half of 2025 things can change drastically and I think after April 2nd after we get that full list of tariffs and know exactly what's going to happen that's when the uncertainties are going to disappear a bit when uncertainties disappear I think the market will react way more positively now of course in the meantime we have some like this we have again Health technology consumer non-durables and all of that those are always going to be green when we're going to see red with regards to technology big tech companies like of Nvidia broadcom meta still down Tesla was actually yeah still up and Tesla could be one of those stories look Tesla right now $273 remember two weeks ago something like that we were what closer to $220 so is that already one of the first signs of okay maybe these types of beaten down stocks have found a couple of buyers and we are already seeing a little rebound happening could very well be and so let's discuss this a little bit further if youj these type of videos hit all the buttons we really appreciate that you want to support me even further do check out the link down in the description and in the pink comment with the top 10 best stocks to buy now or go to f.com investor thank you very much now first want to go back to what I mentioned couple of videos ago with regards to macro news so if you look at the past recessions if look at the past recessions you can see that most of the times the stock market rebounds before the recession is over of course you will only know about a recession after two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth but as history has shown us again history tells us something you might learn from it it might not happen again but might resemble it right it often Rhymes as they say we can clearly see that the market rebounds before the recession is over by the way if you're looking at egg prices here they have really fallen off a cliff over 60% or so I believe in the last month so it's already quite good then if we look at the first thing that Tom mentioned in this video yesterday if you look at the money markets if you look at the difference between a year ago and today because a year ago and today we're almost at the same level here when you look at S&P 500 well what is not at the same level is the money market funds it's actually increased by $857 billion so maybe maybe when the uncertainties are over or have decreased well maybe we're going to see a lot of money flow in the market could very well be cuz I mean when you are uncertain then you don't want to risk your Capital when uncertainties are disappearing you might be risk on and I think that's maybe what we might be seeing the whole topic of his video was talking about a v-shaped recovery we've seen past v-shaped recoveries right remember the start of the pandemic 2020 March huge crash huge recovery vshape like recoveries then if we look at margin Deb that has also started to decrease we're still waiting for the number for March but for the other two quarters we can clearly see this stock starting to decrease so this also can help with that vshape recovery if we look at Prime book percent of a total us net exposure if you look at the Magnificent 7 which are the blue lines here it's at the lowest levels not seen since well 2023 or so so there's definitely definitely a possibility that once we get more crucial information maybe the next earning season maybe we get way more information less uncertainty you look look at the data and you're saying okay all of these signs can point to a huge recovery or or of course we can always go lower if things really get worse and worse that's definitely a possibility I personally don't see that happening just now if the data changes then the story will change as well I mean here as well if you look at the long short ratio it's at the lowest point it has been since well look at this actually it's low lower than 24 23 obviously 22 21 even 2020 so the markets right now especially when you look at the US markets and you can see that in the underperformance compared to some European markets the Chinese markets we talked about this towards the end of 2024 okay this might make sense again couple of months of lots of uncertainties tariffs no tariffs yes tars changes Administration changes in policies deep seek AI buildout Data Center releases being cancelled yes or no corve weave IPO price is up no actually price is down you have to take all of that into consideration look at the bigger picture and you're like okay Wall Street doesn't like all of this and so this is what we get right now for longterm investors this period might be the best period that we've had in the last well since the last bare market and remember as we talked about this in the last video the S&P had one of its fastest 10% correction in history and yet it's not covid you might say it might be trade War 2.0 the last time that did decrease in just 13 days it's not an Eisenhower heart attack it's not a Korean War it's not the vulker shock it's not the Asian financial crisis I always have to laugh at that name no it's not that it's not that and yet and yet this 10% correction is the fifth fastest now if you don't think that this is an overreaction then fine then then I guess you you think this is normal I don't view this as a normal thing because I don't see the sky falling far from it currently all of the data that we see nowhere near any of these scenarios right nowhere near any of these huge huge events and if you look at the recovery afterward only covid Co took a little bit longer right a month after that was still down 14.7% but 3 months after that we're already up six months we're up 15.6% a year after that we're up 27.9% if we look at all of them together 1 month later the average were up 2.9% 3 months later we up 8.2% 6 months 15% 12 months close to 20% so again yes I do think that these are the types of periods where long-term investors should be taking the opportunity to buy and build up great positions as well if we go back to what I said last week and Tom has said that as well since this is his video Cuban Missile Crisis the market yeah the market did rebound already start to recover even before even before this whole crisis was over so just like I said at the start of this video with recessions markets rebound before the recession is over markets rebound before a bad event is usually over and last thing here of course just remember if we look at the S&P 500 top 10 daily returns for the year 23 for the year 2024 you can see that those are the days that you really want to be in the market those are the days that you don't want to just oh actually the day before we were down so I was panicking I sold everything and I will be waiting I will be waiting for a rebound well if you miss those top 10 days during a year you are going to underperform the market by quite a lot right if you look at 2023 cumulative gains for just the best 10 days 20% full year X best 10 days only 4% same for 2024 the best 10 days 19% if you exclude the best 10 days during that year you'll only be up 4% so here again stay invested don't let headlines scare you out of positions the best thing that I can think of for risk management is one you can take profits right nobody nobody got poor by taking profit and two you increase your cash position right you can increase your cash position and then in case things get worse you can then increase your existing positions or maybe if you find something interesting you can open up another position because guess what the business did not change much unless of course the whole business model is is very negatively impacted by tariffs and things change rarely do we see these things right now but this thing exist but with cash with taking profits you are of course der risking yourself while still being in the market and you will enjoy those 10 best days and lastly of course of course things can change the market is ever evolving but for the long run just like the trade war in 2018 I'm sure most of you don't even remember that that happened at the end of 2018 right so my best guess here is that 5 10 years from now you won't even remember a about this period at the start of 2025 you want to know why because if you zoom out and you look at all the other horrible events way worst events that happened in the past if you zoom out you can see that the market has continued to go up and up and up and that's the most important thing here be a long-term investor of course shortterm if you're a Trader this is these are the best times for you right you can go up you can go down you can go up you can go down in a matter of couple of hours you can make a lot of money for sure for long-term investors I think we can find a lot a lot of Bargains in this market right now unfortunately as we've seen in the previous bare Market in 2022 retail gets scared when things go bad I see this also in the data on YouTube sentiment changes comments viewership people get scared like oh I will only buy when this goes lower and yet when it was higher you said you're going to buy when it dips so which one one is it right oh I'll buy the deep and then the Deep happens you never buy yeah human psychology I guess anyways that's what I wanted to say I know there's a lot of oh it's over game over recession la la la fears but I think if you look at the data if you look at the big picture we're far from Armageddon let's be honest here so that's all I've got for you right now do share your thoughts and comments down in the comment section below like subscribe do all of that and I see you all in the next one bye-bye
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