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마이크론이 실적 발표 후 12% 하락(약 $91). 매출·EPS는 상회했으나 다음 분기 가이던스가 컨센서스를 크게 하회(약 $1B 미달), 소비자향 재고조정과 NAND 수요 둔화 언급. 데이터센터·HBM 매출은 급성장(데이터센터 매출 비중 50% 돌파, HBM 매출 2배 이상 증가, HBM TAM 2030년 $100B+ 전망). 발표자는 단기 압력은 예상하나 장기적으로 사이클 상단은 과거보다 높을 것으로 봄. 본인은 소량 보유 후 단기 매매 목적이었고 다음날 손실 확대 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
Micron just reported their latest quarterly figures and at the time of making this video the stock is down 12% to now $91 33 at the start of this year Micron stock was trading at $85. 34 which is quite strange that we're still that close since well the business has grown quite rapidly since we'll have a market cap of just over hundred billion do Forbe still sits quite low in my opinion just under 12 times if you look at what the analysts are expecting this company to do in fiscal 2025 which is the fiscal year that this company is in right now and fiscal 2026 you can see that this is still a very very fast growing company but in fiscal 2027 analysts are expecting sales to drop and EPS as well in 2026 hbm 4 is expected to ramp up and as we did in a previous video we will look at the average analyst price Target that currently sits at well 40% higher than the price the stock was when the market closed now it's going to be a bit higher than that but I do think that we're going to get a couple of downgrades tomorrow and I'll explain all of that in this video I think we're going to see some short-term pressure yes even more shortterm pressure than what we've seen before plus of course we've had Jerome Powell talk less rate Cuts in 2025 all the market went down so yeah definitely not the best day to report definitely not the best day to report a double beat but a huge miss when it comes to guidance that's unfortunate I had a small position going into this earnings report I thought it would be a good trade uh no apparently apparently not anyways let's discuss all of these results in today's video if you enjoy the type of videos leave it a thumbs up subscribe if not k comment you so let me start by saying that they beat the expected number for revenue for this quarter and well free cash flow as well free cash flow was expected to be negative $155.4 million I believe it was positive 110 120 or something like that so fine but guidance guidance for next quarter Revenue was closer to what $9 billion 8.96 billion that came in well much much lower and so they said the following data center Revenue grew over 400% year over-year and 40% sequentially reaching a record level with data center Revenue mix surpassing 50% of micron's revenue for the first time we delivered record Revenue in Data Center ssds and achieved new records in market share for data center ssds in overall ssds our high bandwidth memory or hbm shipments were ahead of plan and we achieve more than a sequential doubling of hbm revenue revenue from our largest data center customer was approximately 133% of total company revenue and in 2028 they expect hbm total addressable Market to grow for times from the $16 billion level in 2024 to exceed A1 billion by 2030 on the more negative side of things they said the following leading hdam Supply remains tight driven by robust demand in data center Dam including hbm which will underpin our business results throughout fiscal and calendar 2025 we had previously shared our expectations that customer inventory reductions in the consumer oriented segments and seasonality would impact Q2 bit shipments we are now seeing a more pronounced impact of customer inventory reductions fiscal Q2 bit shipment Outlook is weaker than we previously expected we expect this adjustment period to be relatively brief and anticipate customer inventory reaching healthier Levels by Spring enabling stronger bit shipments in the second half of fiscal and calendar 2025 we are on track to achieve our HPM targets and also deliver a substantial record in Micron Revenue significantly improved profitability and positive free cash flow in fiscal 2025 a quick comment from the CEO Micron delivered a record quarter in our data center Revenue surpassed 50% of our total revenue for the first time while consumer oriented markets are weaker in the near term we anticipate a return to growth in the second half of our fiscal year we continue to gain share in the highest margin and strategically important parts of the market and are exceptionally well positioned to leverage AI driven growth to create substantial value for all stakeholder remember hbm is sold out for the all of 2025 but pricing for that was already determined before so the price hikes will not affect those orders they also say that they made excellent progress on hbm more than doubling their revenue sequentially during the quarter and exceeding their plans as a result of solid execution on yield and capacity ramp in fiscal q1 hbm gross margin was significantly accretive to both dram and overall company gross margins we are proud to share that micron's hbm 38h is designed into nvidia's black qu b200 and gb200 platforms micron's hbm 3E operates at full speed while maintaining leadership in power efficiency this month we commence high volume shipments to our second large hbm customer and we start high volume shipments to our third large customer in calendar q1 expanding our hbm customer base and so the figures the numers for the quarter on a gap basis were this Revenue 8.7 just over 8.7 billion do gross margin of 38.4% operating ating income of $2.7 billion as a percentage of Revenue basically operating margin 25% net income $1.87 billion and diluted earnings per share of $1.67 now all in all you've got here the split between DRM and nand DRM much better than nand here $6.4 billion representing 73% of total revenue that Revenue increased 20% quarter over quarter bid shipments increased in the low double digit percentage range quarter over quarter nasp increase in the high single digit percentage range quarter over quarter as for nand Revenue decreased 5% quarter over quarter bit shipments decreased in the low single digigit percentage range and ASP also decreased in the low single digit percentage range quarter over quarter they said the following in fiscal 2025 they expect micron's Revenue mix with companies headquarters in mainland China and Hong Kong including direct sales as well as indirect sales through Distributors to be approximately m% of their worldwide Revenue this mix is impacted by market Factor described earlier as well as by the China CAC actions announced in May 2023 now all in all we are not at well record revenue for the company of course thanks to huge huge increase in theam revenue and like I said in the previous Micron video I think yes this is still a cyclical company Sy still still a cyclical industry but I do think that this time the cycle will be much higher well the top will be higher than before there will be some shortterm volatility like we've seen sometimes they're going to miss sometimes not but I do think that the top will be higher than before and then of course since this is a cyclical business I do expect it to slow down I don't know when the market while some analysts are expecting this to happen in fiscal 2027 already I think that will be a bit too early especially if we have some delays as for the different business segments you've got computer networking the largest part here mobile Revenue did take a hit quarter over quarter that's quite weak storage is up a tiny bit and then you've got embedded here is basically down as well all in all if we look at cash flow and capital allocation they generated $3.2 billion of cash flow from operations at 37% of Revenue net capex was $3.1 billion so the difference here is basically free cash flow and that's free cash flow positive so adjusted free cash flow of $112 million they did not buy any shares during their fiscal q1 maybe now with the big drop maybe they might do so they are paying a dividend of 11 cents that will be paid on January 15 as for demand Outlook so they see industry Dam be demand growth to be in the high teen percentage range in calendar 24 and in the mid te percentage range in calendar 2025 they see overall calendar 20 25 DRM industry bit Supply growing roughly in line with bit Demand with tightness in Leading Edge nose driven by hbm Supply ramp in the industry their outlook for industry nand bit demand growth in both calendar 24 and 2025 is now in the low double digit percentage range which is lower than their prior expectations key drivers include slower growth in N content in consumer devices ongoing inventory adjustments and demand Dynamics in different end markets as outlined earlier and a temporary moderation in near-term data center SSD purchases by customers after several quarters of very rapid growth in the next few years we also expect high capacity nand ssds to start displacing capacity hdds in the data center an inflection that will drive long-term nand demand growth as for Supply so what are they doing well since n technology transitions provide a significant increase in overall output the pace of Technology transitions will also need to slow in order to align Supply to Industry demand we have reduced nand capex versus prior plan and have slowed the pace of Technology node transitions in addition we are reducing nand wafer starts by mid percentage versus prior levels they also expect micron's worldwide Revenue related to lp4 and D4 Dam products for the remainder of fiscal 2025 to be approximately 10% they expect Micron sales of products to China headquartered customers to be concentrated in the high end of customers portfolio leveraging our technology and product leadership and the performance and quality requirements of our customers and so if we look at Outlook Revenue basically a Miss of well a billion dollars because revenu is expected to come in at 7.9 billion plusus $200 million gross margin 37.5% and diluted earnings per share around $126 on a gap $143 on a non-gap basis we expect Dam bit shipments to decline sequentially and expect a meaningful sequential decline in nand bit shipments for reasons mentioned previously that are impacting near turn demand we project our bit shipments to resume growth after fiscal Q2 and expect second half fiscal year bit achievement to be stronger than the first half so basically 6 months from now we should be seeing a let's say better picture for micron and so right now looking at the stock after weeks and weeks or maybe months of staying around $100 we are going to go back down to around $90 as you can see this is the uptrend line if it wants to test that that will have to go well under $90 closer to $885 or so we've been there we've been there back at the start of sep September so who knows who knows what might happen tomorrow when the Market opens let's see all in all this is still a very very good company but like I said cyclical business there is seasonality some inventory issues as well maybe some delays here and there so yeah as you've seen next quarter is not going to be great but they expect the next two quarters after that basically their second half of their fiscal 2025 to be much better okay I guess right now the market is just not in the mood to wait another quarter or two maybe it's an opportunity for long-term investors me that just wanted to trade this name on the earnings it's going to be quite interesting for me to get out of it tomorrow when the Market opens hopefully not that much red but then again we've just heard Jerome Powell we've just seen what the market reaction has been so I think tomorrow I'll probably be down my position 10 plus per or so okay you win some you lose some you move on so overall that's all you need to know right now with regards to Micron to share your thoughts down in the comment section below like subscribe do all of that and I'll see you all in the next one bye-bye
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