저자: CouchInvestor · 외국인
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Grab 주가가 4.57달러로 하락했으나 시가총액 약 190억 달러, 최근 12개월 매출·현금흐름 개선과 MAU 15.6% 성장을 근거로 저평가로 봄. 하워드 막스 Oaktree가 약 4,650만 달러(포트폴리오 1.15%) 보유. 전환사채 15억 달러 발행 및 자사주 매입 확대는 자금 여력과 저평가 신호로 해석. 동남아 GDP 성장 수혜와 금융서비스 흑자화 전망을 강조. 200일 이동평균선 지지 여부를 단기 반등 신호로 제시. 단, 주가가 곧 10달러로 가지는 않을 것이라고 경고.
다듬은 글
Hello everyone, welcome to my new video. I think it's time to talk about Grab again. So, Grab shares are worth less than $5 again, namely $4.57. After the close of trading on Friday. It's still a company worth about 18-19 billion over the last 12 months. The stock outperformed the market. They still grew by almost 30%.
In terms of valuation, of course, if you look at the current or forward P/E ratio, you can say, "Okay, that doesn't make sense at all. Why would I buy something like that?" But remember, when a company becomes profitable, these figures are usually quite high. It is very important to pay attention to how quickly they can expand margins and become more profitable in the coming quarters and years.
Regarding profitability, the gross margin over the past 12 months is just over 40%. So these indicators are also improving. If you look at the net margin, for example, it's 8%, and the free cash flow margin is about 29%. The average analyst target forecast is currently $5.80. Of course, the price was closer to this target a couple of months or maybe a couple of weeks ago.
Let's review Grab's prospects, because I know that at one time these stocks became very popular, and everyone expected them to double, triple or quadruple in record time. But remember, just because a stock is worth $5 or $4 doesn't mean it has to be worth $50. No, there's a real company behind that stock .
There is a real company behind this price. Moreover, at a price of $4.5, this is already a company worth $19 billion. So don't think that a low stock price equals a low market capitalization. No, not at all. Also, as we noted a month ago, Howard Marks of Oak Tree Capital Management has 53 positions in a portfolio worth over $4 billion.
They actually opened a position in Grab last quarter, not in the current one, but in the one before that. So , Grab's share is 1.15% of the portfolio, a position worth about $46.5 million. And before we continue, if you like these videos, please hit all the buttons, especially the subscribe button. We appreciate it very much.
And if you want to support me even more, check out the links in the description and in the pinned comment for the top 10 best stocks to buy right now or go to full.com/cotinvestor. Thank you very much. So, first, a few events that happened in June. First, Grab valued the convertible bond offering at $1.5 billion.
And now the most important thing. Why do they need that amount of cash, especially considering they already have good reserves? Well, now they're just increasing those stocks. And they stated the following. Grab intends to use the net proceeds from the bond offering for general corporate purposes to optimize strategic flexibility, which may include potential acquisitions such as the rumored Goto, while continuing to adhere to high standards for such deals.
for the parallel repurchase, as described, in respect of which the Company expects to fully utilize $274 million of the authorized but unused amount under its $500 million share repurchase program announced in February 2024, and for any other share repurchases that may be authorized by the Board of Directors.
Of course, now that they've increased the cash portion, look, we really think our business is undervalued, so we're accelerating the share buyback. could also be an option. Now something else, and this is something we saw in Nebius as well. The initial bond conversion price was approximately $6.55. per Class A common share, representing a conversion premium of approximately 40% above the closing price of $4.68.
at the time of the announcement. So now it is even higher. Of course, the difference between this and Nebius, for example, is that Nebius definitely has a lot of momentum, especially because of CoreWeave, and in particular because of the AI segment. So Nebius' stock price rose after this announcement.
And Grab shares actually fell. I don't know if you remember, but last time I talked about Grab, I paid a lot of attention to geography, right? The location of this company is Southeast Asia. Why is that so? Well, because if you look at the GDP growth for most of the countries where Grab operates—Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam— you can see that GDP growth here has been much faster than in many other places on this planet .
Of course, this is what happened before. But what exactly is expected in the future? As you can see, Grab operates in countries where GDP growth is expected to be rapid in the coming years, significantly higher than in more established markets. And, of course, if you are a leader in your industry, you will benefit significantly from this.
This is one of the main reasons why Grab is quite attractive. If you are looking to invest in Southeast Asia and want to own a stake in a business that could be called a "super app." Looking at analyst expectations, the company's revenue is expected to grow by about 20% annually over the next few fiscal years, while free cash flow will decline slightly in FY25, but will grow by 29.6% in FY26, and another 44% in FY27, exceeding $1 billion by FY27 .
If you look at the dynamics, the number of monthly active users has grown quite well—by 15.6%, although the report rounded the figure to 16%, but the exact value is exactly 15.6%. Yes, the figure was down a bit quarter- over-quarter, but it's still an annualized increase compared to the 15.6% we saw a year ago.
So it's still a very good result. If we consider different business segments, then, of course, these are delivery, mobility, and financial services. Starting in the first quarter of 2023, delivery is showing a compound annual growth rate of 18.8%, mobility is just over 20%, and financial services is, of course, much faster .
However, as can be seen in the orange bars, these are still significantly lower figures. The growth is 44.3%, but this segment is expected to grow, because, as we have seen from the example of other players, having a financial division is a very profitable business. In terms of adjusted EBITDA, the delivery and mobility segments are already profitable, but financial services still remain unprofitable.
Regarding financial services, we can go back to financial AI, examine the report, and ask a specific question about this segment, particularly its profitability. They noted the following. The financial services business benefited from cross-selling within the Grab platform, with most new financial services customers coming from Grab's existing user base.
Again, when you have a super app, it's a huge, just a huge advantage, right? If you launch new products, your existing user base will immediately learn about them, and you don't need to advertise or increase marketing spend to get existing users to start using them. Of course, if you want to attract new ones, then you will have to spend more.
But despite this, I want to touch on the topic of bonuses a little later. So, the growth of the loan portfolio and the quality of loans. The loan portfolio has grown, but the company is also increasing loan loss provisions as the portfolio expands. The share of non-performing loans, or NPLs, is currently stable quarter-over- quarter, and the company is tracking loan quality metrics.
They take a measured approach to lending. Acceleration of income growth. The company expects revenue growth to accelerate in the second half of the year due to increased consumer lending and continued growth in partner lending. The first quarter was the first time they had loan products from all three banks on the marketplace.
As they build up their loan book, they record expected credit losses on the income statement to strengthen their balance sheet. They are attracting target markets for these loans in Singapore. And I think they were saying that two out of three banks are already profitable for them. So for this segment, the question is not whether it will become profitable, but only when it will happen.
Now let 's move on to incentives for partners and consumers. You can see that last quarter this figure grew by 20.4% year-over-year, and the quarter before that it grew by 29% year-over-year. But that's because it actually fell by 3.6% a year earlier. What exactly are these incentives? Partner incentives are payments or bonuses provided to drivers and sellers to encourage engagement, offers, and activity on the platform.
For certain delivery services where Grab is responsible for the delivery service under the contract, these incentives are reflected in cost of sales and not as operating expenses. This is a big difference in this case. As for consumer incentives, these are discounts and promotions for users. They are treated similarly: they reduce reported income, rather than being recorded as sales and marketing expenses.
Interestingly, if we look at incentives as a percentage of GMV— delivery, mobility, and overall demand in Q1 2025— partner incentives are 4.4 % and consumer incentives are 5.7%. Yes, there was a slight increase of 2% year-on-year for both indicators, but it is not that significant. They also announced during their latest earnings call that they are focused on not spending as much money on incentives to grow their existing user base.
They did this to make sure that the existing user base saw value and that there was enough supply for high demand. That's logical, isn't it? Because when you have a platform like this, say, a super app, you want to be sure that it's the best on the market. So yes, sometimes you have to spend money to stay the best and provide the best service.
But with scaling, I think the need for such costs will decrease, because the app will become so important to people's daily lives that they will use it anyway. They also talked about using AI to make marketing processes, for example, run smoothly. The advertising side of the business, of course, should also grow.
This makes me think that if they acquired an e- commerce company, it would definitely help both advertising and retail. A true creation of a super app. Now, of course, regarding whether or not to acquire Gooto, let's see what happens in the future. Finally, if you look at the stocks, on the daily chart, you can see that they ended the week right at the 200- day moving average.
Looking at the weekly chart, the stock is still above the 200-day moving average, and here's what we see. We previously fell below the 200- day moving average in early April when everything was falling, but the recovery was swift and we came back higher. Now let's see if we can bounce off this 200-day moving average.
If so, that would be a pretty positive signal. We have repeatedly seen stocks bounce off the 200 -day moving average, followed by a nice rally. Usually this rebound is quite rapid. So , to sum it up, it's pretty simple for me. The possibility certainly exists. And again, this is a company worth almost $20 billion .
Just because a stock is only worth $5 or so doesn't mean it should just go up 5 or 10 times. Is this an opportunity cost? Yes. The fact that stocks have fallen since the beginning of the year. No, opportunity costs. This is just a lazy excuse. I've seen it over and over again . Oh, that's opportunity cost.
No, when you buy stocks with a specific strategy, long-term thesis, and goal, it's not an opportunity cost just because the stock underperformed for 6 months or a year . No, you can only tell me about opportunity costs in the future. Also, when you say you're buying a stock to hold for the long term and you see another stock outperforming it, you can't talk about opportunity costs because that just doesn't make sense, right?
Looking back: "Oh, I should have bought that." Yes, of course, looking back, I should have guessed the correct lottery numbers, but I didn't. But if, say, in two, three or five years it will be a company with a capitalization of one hundred billion dollars, or maybe more, who knows? You 'll still say, "Oh, but in 2025, that was an opportunity cost because I could have bought another stock that went up 50%, sold it two months later, and then gone back to Grab." No.
Okay, this is crystal ball talk. Investing doesn't work like that. So yes, I still think Grab is a very interesting and good business operating in fast- growing markets. But it seems like yes, the stock needs time for the market to realize that maybe the company is really doing something interesting here.
And that's all, right? For those who bought this and thought the stock would be $10 tomorrow—sorry to disappoint, but that's not going to happen. So, in this video, I have everything. If you like these videos, press all the buttons. I would be very grateful for that. See you all in the next video. See you later.
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