저자: KevinO'Leary또는MeetKevin채널진행자 · 외국인
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모멘텀 투자가 SpaceX·비트코인·금 하락으로 무너지고 있으며 자금이 빠져나가 다른 종목까지 압박받는다는 주장. 비트코인 59.3k로 6만달러 붕괴, 금은 고점 대비 20%+ 하락, SpaceX는 IPO 이후 상장가 아래 손실. 팔란티어 목표가 약 89달러, 마이크론은 단기 높은 성장 기대 대비 장기 성장 둔화 시 저평가 아님. 단기·중기 투자는 위험하고 장기 보유 관점이 유리하다고 주장.
다듬은 글
Momentum investing is getting absolutely destroyed and SpaceX was the last example of exactly that. This is not a video to bag on any particular type of investing. In fact, there are times that momentum investing is exactly what you want to do. Like, frankly, Micron a year ago or Vertiv a year ago or even one of my favorites we've been investing in in the course member live streams, Marvell, right?
These have been fantastic opportunities. But, let's ignore for a moment what could have been and let's understand for a moment how momentum investing is getting hosed right now and how that could be a really big red flag going forward and what the long-term implications of that could be. Now, it's also worth mentioning times like COVID make momentum investing really popular and so everybody kind of knows, "Hey, when the memes going, we's get in before it dumps, right?" But, what's been happening lately has been a successive crushing of momentum investors over and over and over again.
Let me start by going back to October of 2025. You probably already know that was when Bitcoin peaked at $125,000 and everybody was told that Bitcoin is going to a million dollars and that the perpetual equity tools that Michael Saylor's going to provide to us will forever give us Bitcoin liquidity because there's no shortage of being able to issue shares and use that to go buy a digital currency and it'll never end and we can pay a 10% yield forever.
Well, now STR C, which we've made videos about before suggesting it's bound to collapse and you should stay the heck away from it. In fact, for the last 6 months it has been a note under every single one of the alpha reports that we've released every morning, which we do every day that the market is open, we release an alpha report with our long-term, medium-term, and short-term ideas, perspectives, what's going on in the economy and market trade ideas.
And SCRC has been one of those warnings that you should go nowhere near it. SCRC now trades at a 25% discount to where it should be, and liquidity has dried up so badly for Bitcoin Bitcoin, one of the original momentum trades, that Bitcoin has just lost $60,000, and it's currently trading at 59.3. And trending down.
But it's not just Bitcoin. It's also gold. We made a warning on this channel that gold was going to top under a Kevin Warsh regime, and it did exactly that. I'll give you my logic as to why gold topped under Kevin Warsh. I'll explain that in just a moment. Even though central banks are still buying this, and and there is a rationale for doing that.
Uh lower currency risk, lower government risk, you don't have to worry sort of about uh fiscal policies uh and government debt. Those are really topics for a deep dive gold video. But the point is Kevin Warsh is kind of the opposite of let's run the money printer to solve our problems kind of guy. Which as a Fed chair is a really big departure from the last three Fed chairs we've had.
Ben Bernanke, I mean even Alan Greenspan ran the money printer. So you could potentially even go back as far as Alan Greenspan, who unfortunately just died. Although he did make it to par, I mean maturity, I mean 100. Um you know, Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell were run the money printer folks.
Gold topped at $5,247 Kevin Warsh was appointed. The reason I argue that Kevin Warsh was a warning for this is because decades basically of knowing that any issue the Fed is just going to print over with more paper money makes gold more or in terms of that paper money, right? If you're going to increase the supply of that paper money, you're going to want more of that paper money to compensate you for that precious metal, gold.
And so, since then, gold is down over 20% and so you had the October momentum slaying, you had the February momentum slaying of gold after gold like doubled in the span of 2 years, which was remarkable for what's generally a slower moving commodity. But, you have this massive movement into something like an asset like Bitcoin or gold and then there's bleed out that just absolutely destroys people's wealth because people get in thinking the fundamentals are intrinsic.
This is going to go up forever. I'm going to buy every dip, but the problem is eventually you run out of money to buy the dip and then you're left holding a depreciating asset and it sucks. And the only thing that pumps Bitcoin or gold up again is another momentum trade. Okay, maybe that's not entirely fair to gold because there are fundamental purposes for gold, but it's definitely fair for Bitcoin at this point.
Although, I know some Bitcoin maximalists are going to say, "Usage." Fine. Topic for a different video, as well. The point of this video isn't to try to bag on Bitcoin or gold. I'm not trying to bag on anybody's investments. I'm trying to say that momentum or assets that have experienced momentum are slaughtering people's wealth.
And the latest example of that is SpaceX. SpaceX just went public and I made a video arguing that you should not buy this unless you can get an IPO allocation at 135. Ideally, you're already in it or exposed to it before the IPO because it's almost certainly going to go down. And what happened? After it went public, there was such a low float, which we talked about, that of course it had its little meme era, but that meme era, sadly, only lasted about 3 days, which was roughly long enough for Jim Cramer to say that this stock goes up one point every hour it's open.
And that at about 2:17 was pretty dang close to the top on the 16th of June. And since then, the stock has been trading down. But it hasn't just been trading down, it has basically lost everybody money who bought it post IPO. Now, if you bought it as venture capitalist, like you know, you know, other people or how we did, you know, 4x ago, so we're obviously still dramatically up on on SpaceX.
It doesn't really make a difference that it went to 227, now it's at 153. Okay, so 30% difference, but when you're up 4x, it's a rounding error. And that's not trying to brag, it's not trying to pat myself on the back, it's trying to say that there are a lot of people who are up 2, 3, 4, 5, 10x, and they want their money out, and we know liquidity for SpaceX is going to explode.
We're going to go from about 4.2% of a float out standing on this company or shares available to potentially trade to over 50% by next summer. That unfortunately creates the potential that this bleed keeps going. Unfortunately, when you have $600 billion of market capitalization evaporate because of SpaceX in the span of a week, you have billions of dollars evaporate from the Bitcoin market cap or or gold market cap.
What ends up happening is you start having the same investor get slaughtered over and over and over again. The same people who bought gold later, the same people who bought Bitcoin later, the same people who bought SpaceX after IPO. And I'm not saying that if you're that person, you're a bad person or there's anything wrong with you.
I'm just trying to say it probably means you have less money to go buy other stocks. And so now, when you look at a company that's actually starting to get cheaper, like a lot cheaper. It's approaching my price target. You look at a company like Palantir, which was at one point a momentum name that was trading for like a like an eight peg, which is excessively overvalued.
You now look at it, it's trading for like a 1.9 peg. I've got a target of this getting to closer to about $89. And people called me insane for saying Palantir was going to get down to $89, but these are the sort of prognostications, if you will, that we make on the channel. I make them transparently.
I'm not always right. I make mistakes. I'm human, but I do my best to try to learn from these. And obviously recently, you know, we've had a turn on momentum. So shorter term trades have been getting hurt. It's been harder to push or see the Qs, for example, Nasdaq 100 stocks expand up when there's no money left because the reason I'm bringing up Palantir is I think what's happening is the people who lost a lot of money on gold, on Bitcoin, on SpaceX are now going into their portfolios and they're saying, "Fine.
Sell some Palantir. Sell some Microsoft. Sell some Meta. Sell some Intuit. Sell some Axon. Sell some quality names of companies that are just going to get better with AI, especially when the capital expenditures slow down to really the death of the hardware sector, which that will probably be recessionary in itself.
But the point is people are robbing their existing portfolios to compensate for the fact that momentum investing is absolutely been horrible for the last year. Bitcoin, gold, SpaceX now, they're all crushed. And so it's no surprise to me that today we have the headline that well, guess what? Open AI leans towards waiting until next year for IPO.
Now, where did I see this? Well, this actually came through our wire service, which you can totally use for free. It's actually a really cool tool. You can use it uh by downloading the Meet Kevin app on your phone, so Apple or Android, or once you sign up for an account through the app, you can use that same login email to go to app.meetkevin.com.
Uh and I don't know if you'll be able to see it, but this is basically a wire service. It It essentially pulls together some of the best news sources that exist around the world, and they give it to you in a minute-by-minute update. Uh and it's really, really good. We actually just added a bunch of more feeds to it, so it's a really quality.
It's sort of like the highest quality catered X feed you could possibly possibly wish for without all of the distractions, totally for free. But anyway, I saw it pop up. OpenAI leans towards waiting until next year for Open AI for Open AI IPO. This to me is no surprise. It's a sign that even though Micron absolutely smashed data, even though GDP data is good, even though personal incomes are up and personal spending is up data-wise, not obviously for everyone.
Even though economically things look good, when you look at a company like SpaceX, and you go, "Wow, that was miserable performance." You go, "Maybe we don't want IPO." When you look at a company like Micron, who absolutely had some of the best earnings I have seen in a long time, really, really good earnings, fantastic earnings.
And all of a sudden, yeah, they have a 15% update, but they lost more than that from the point of when I made my video talking about the Micron warning going into what was likely to happen uh and why what the fundamentals of Micron were, and what the red flags for Micron are. Between that video and earnings, the company lost like 18%.
So, even though it regained 15, 16% today, it's still not at the high where it was. Actually, it's only uh Yeah, I know, it's up 15.7%. Still not up at the high of where it was. Why is that a problem? It's a sign that the available money that people have is starting to get vacuumed away. They're now trying to start stocks like Wendy's, which was up 30% on a short squeeze, just like KB Homes was up on a short squeeze.
And then people think this is fundamentally a shifted story. That's it, it's going to go up forever. And then the next day it's just straight down again, 7% in the case of Wendy's. Uh and in the case of KB Homes, also red the next day. A lot of these short squeezes, they just don't last. They signal that something has fundamentally changed, but they're really just good vacuum cleaners.
They suck people in. People invest their money thinking that's it, this is fundamentally changed, and then their money gets sucked out. And that money disappears. Then you don't have it to go buy other stocks. You don't have it to contribute to the broadening of the Nasdaq 100 or the S&P. And what happens?
Well, we get some stagnation. You know, obviously today we had some bad news regarding Apple, uh but that bad news we saw coming. In fact, if you have been part of the wire service, you saw about 5 days ago, we pinned a wire notice that Apple was considering raising prices due to memory price constraints.
I pinned that, and I wrote, "This will create a buying opportunity for Apple. It will probably fall when orders start coming in as a miss in it or the stock just falls in anticipation of this, and it could create an opportunity to buy Apple because Apple's not trading for any particular discount right now." Which I still maintain.
I don't think Apple is trading for any kind of discount right now. I think that Apple has a lot more to fall before it gets really attractive again for an entry point. And these memory prices, which eventually will get commoditized, will create an opportunity to buy Apple stock. Unfortunately, though, it's just yet another part of people's portfolio that's now getting sucked dry of potential capital.
Uh and so all of this is Yeah, I mean, look at this headline here. Bi- Bitcoin ETF sees record investor flight as cryptocurrency hits lowest level since 2024. The point of this entire video is to make the argument that right now is quite a risky time for short and medium short and medium-term investments.
Now is a fantastic time to start thinking about 10-year investment trades. Things where you're like, "Look, I'll look at this stock again in 2026. I'm going to hold it between now and then. I'm not going to touch it. I'm just going to own it." This is the time to start doing that because the momentum money is running out of money.
And once momentum money starts running out, that's when we can finally start getting towards more true valuations of what companies are actually worth. Even in the hardware trade, and I hate to say this, Micron looks cheap right now because we're forecasting massive growth for them. But we know we're not expecting that growth to go on in perpetuity.
So, we should technically be punishing that potential long-term growth and discounting the company. Why? Because we don't think they're going to grow at 40% per year for the next 50 years. Maybe they'll grow at 40% per year for the next three years. New supply comes online, demand for for memory slows.
Oops, growth rates collapse or worse go negative. Now all of a sudden, any company that looks cheap actually looks really expensive because as soon as you turn the growth dial from growth to negative, you get an infinite PEG ratio, and that looks really bad in people's portfolios. So, let this be a prospective warning that as more and more these momentum trades are fizzling, SpaceX included, and other companies go, "Oh, maybe this is not a great time to raise money." Like OpenAI delaying their IPO, they're 100% delaying the IPO because SpaceX I mean, it kind of flopped.
You know, the momentum just didn't last, and now we haven't even had a single lockup yet, and it's already essentially at IPO price. I would argue 90 plus percent of people who bought at IPO have already lost money, probably more than that. Uh and uh you know, it's probably down from here. So, that's unfortunate.
I can't wait to liquidate our venture capital shares. Uh but that's okay. We'll we'll we'll still be up. I mean, unless it goes all the way down to like $10 a share or something like that, or maybe 20 or 30 or whatever it is, whatever the math works out to. But you know, there there's really no um you know, motive for me to make this video.
I'm not trying to sell you anything. I'm offering you a free wire service. You know, you could use the Owlette by Kevin O'Leary. Uh it's really just to share this perspective with you that I think something shifted after SpaceX. And I I even though I expected SpaceX to go down, I will say I wasn't expecting it to affect the broader market as much as it has.
But it turns out when you make $600 billion disappear in one part of the market, it can have a tendency of affecting the entire market. So, I think I think some of the enthusiasm that even the broader market had before SpaceX has slowed and been hit by some of this volatility post wars, post SpaceX.
Uh and uh now it's going to require more patience, but it creates an opportunity for more long-term investing. That's my take. Thank you so very much for watching. If you liked it, consider subscribing and sharing. We'll see you in the next video, and uh hopefully we would be back home in the studio soon.
I got uh I got stuck in Hawaii a little bit longer. I know. Woe is me. Lauren got an ear infection, so wish her well, but we didn't want to put her on a plane with an ear infection. That could uh rupture an eardrum, which uh I hear is not good. Uh bad puns. Bad puns.
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