저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
BTC는 SEC의 데이터공유 요구와 거래소 집중 구조 문제로 단기 변동성 우려, 미국 물가 지표(PCE)는 예상치 부합·디스인플레이션 신호로 평가. 기관 주식 비중 축소(underweight)는 하방 지지로 작용한다고 주장. 나이키는 가격 인하 압력과 재고 이슈로 실적 회복 제한적이라 봄. 엠브라에르를 보유 중이며 항공 수요 호조를 언급. 물가 재상승 시 헤지 필요성 언급.
다듬은 글
all right look I'm gonna shoot you straight in this video about all the crazy stuff that's going on right now we're gonna talk BTC we gotta talk about the numbers that came out this morning we gotta talk about some other bottom lines and insights on that we found out just over the last few hours here which I think are incredibly useful and functional for us to pay attention to so let's get right into it it is coupon expiration day link down below and Tuesday will be July 4th so markets will be closed on Tuesday and guess what Monday markets will actually close early about three hours early actually exactly three hours early because they'll close at 1 pm eastern time which is usually when it closes in Pacific Time hence three hour difference anyway okay so first let's talk about BTC we just got a heads up from the Wall Street Journal that the SEC thinks the current bitcoin filings including those for an ETF by BlackRock are inadequate this temporarily LED Bitcoin to fall down to about 29 400.
it did rebound after that so it's not back to about it so 31 000 so it's still about 900 800 uh dollars roughly under that now at the time of this recording that could change but here's basically what's going on in my take on that and why it's potentially not good okay so the SEC wants what's known as a data sharing agreement and what's really complicated about this is usually you have a data sharing agreement between the broker The Exchange and then the regulator and the reason the Regulators want data data sharing okay data sharing that shouldn't be complicated it's just simply the SEC wants transparency they want to know who's buying and who's selling so that way they can see okay is there manipulation going on in this market or not there's a big problem with that though first of all in a typical data sharing agreement you're going to have a market that looks like this okay think about think about this like old school days and this is super useful in my opinion to understand think about old school days you got a house a big building over here with some beautiful columns or whatever you're going to bring your silk over there to trade it right this is known as a market in other words modernly here an exchange if you played RuneScape you know Grand exchange the cool thing about an exchange is you don't need to know who the buyer is of the stuff you're selling and you don't need to know who the seller is the stuff you want to buy you just go to The Exchange go this is what I need and they may help put buyer and seller together however the SEC wants to play God over here and because that's what they do they supervise and they want to see who's buying and selling they want to see order book information they want to see flow information in a normal Market you actually have a broker uh that is going to say it over here and this is going to be like your Vlad the Impaler of stocks when we like Vlad though to some extent right we we all gotta have our thoughts about Vlad I think he's got a good heart we had some problems with the gme but we'll save that for a different video so what do we got here we got Vlad over here okay he is going to stand outside The Exchange and be like yo you want to do some commission free trading just give me your order and I'll take your order and you know don't mind the fact that we're gonna hand that off to you know the citadels or The Virtue virtues over the world or whatever and they're gonna go market make on the exchanges because they have the desks at the exchanges uh and and they basically control the trading floor okay and then there's money made over here there's money made everywhere they make money they make money they make money everybody makes money uh SCC watches everybody make money and then they get sad because everybody else is making money and they're getting paid by the government hey you know what it's good in case you're looking for a solid retirement job security uh but yeah you know there's obviously some tension between the private sector and government because of that as well so anyway uh ordinarily uh this is how a market works but the problem with BTC is well you've actually done is you've you've combined all of these functions right here and so where the SEC is ordinarily able to individually monitor all of these three different entities they're all Consolidated and the companies are Consolidated into mostly now are binance for Bitcoin like 80 percent of trading volume is done through binance and then the rest is done through like a coinbase and some of the others right why is that a problem the SEC hates Finance and to some extent they also don't like coinbase I mean look at what's going on with coinbase you got coinbase it's like hey SEC let's work together SEC is like yeah sounds good and then you get hey uh so we wanna you know do this and we want to be licensed and we want to be above board the SEC is like and then coinbase is like Hey Y'all Gonna reply to us hey you know what what about this what if we do it this way says coinbase nasty C is like we're gonna sue you Wells notice and Clovis is like yo we well we've been trying we've been giving you all these ideas and now here's your lawsuit and to some extent it's because the SEC is going we I'm assuming behind closed doors I think they're like on one hand we have no idea how to regulate this because Congress hasn't acted on this so you could blame Congress because there's no law so the SEC is like let's let a judge figure it out and then once they tell us what to do then we can actually regulate it they lack the clarity So In fairness that makes sense now on the other hand you have Eric ensler who may have Freudian slipped I don't know if I was sitting down with Gary I would ask him I go was this uh you know intentional but on one hand when Gary Gensler on a CNBC interview just a couple weeks ago said digital currency what do we need digital currency for we already have the dollar and you could trade that digitally that was a problem that was not good it's one thing if you want to say look we need data sharing agreements we need transparency but when you're like we just fundamentally don't want anything threatening the dollar it kind of makes people go wait a second what is actually happening anyway so so that's that's what's going on in the whole ATC world but we got other things going on as well uh for example just to catch you up in case you missed it this morning we got University of Michigan consumer sentiment expectations uh and then we got pce numbers and keep in mind all this drama around crypto in my opinion something to note between now and like mainstream crypto adoption and regulation mainstream crypto regulation you ready for this thesis you ready for thesis thesis engage thesis okay watch this Kevin thesis here okay what on the right side we're gonna have what we call crypto is regulated okay the red line is time now we are probably right here what do you think happens between here and here the safest asset is probably stocks instead of crypto that means when you actually get crypto regulated you have big upside potentially but the question is how much opportunity costs do you give up waiting between now and then well if you look at Bitcoin it's actually performed decently here today so maybe you're actually not giving up a lot of opportunity costs but I think that in order for you to get real flows coming in again it's going to take some time uh and uh right now it doesn't seem like it's getting any closer as much as there was excitement about BlackRock filing their ETF which they I've got they've only had like one ETF fail for a non-transparent ETF which ended up that kind of ETF ended up getting approved later anyway by the SEC so they have a near perfect record of over 500 ETF file it's all getting approved now the SEC is even telling them don't even try too soon I think people thought that they had like an end with the SEC and they were gonna get this slam dunk anyway okay so moving on so what do we have we've got now we got to talk about what happened with inflation Expectations first of all olid 3.3 the expectation was 3.3 last was 3.3 for the one year five to ten year you're looking at three percent three percent three percent so basically all totally expected pce numbers month over month came in at point one versus the 0.4 but that was expected we were looking at month over month core came in at point three as expected year over year core came in one tenth lower which was great we do not want inflation escaping right now uh us like it sort of has done in the United Kingdom bond yields flat which is actually after the GDP report kind of crazy because you have inflation trending down but treasury yields trending up right now at about 3.84 and they just keep going up and they keep staying High ultimately that will be bad for Real Estate it's just going to take more time okay then what we also have to remember is it's not just uh what's going on in in the market in terms of of uh treasure yields or theslso stable at about 2.17 obviously right now people are worried about the fed and because of this they're relatively underweight you've got the Bank of America fund manager survey telling us the fund managers are 32 underweight think about that doesn't mean they're skinny it means they lack allocation to stocks now people have sentiment has changed to overweight for things like Tech Apple just hit a three Trill evaluation but what does it mean for you what is it importantly mean for you it's something we talked about in the live stream this morning it means you got to I know we've said it before but consider this coupon expires tonight for six years there have been some people who have been in these courses on building your wealth and they still come back every day for the course member lives they're still getting free value imagine it's six years from now it's 2029 and you're like I wonder what Kevin's opinion is and you pop into the course member live and you're like hey yo Kevin what do you think about this and then Kevin's like oh let's talk about that this course member lives kind of useful so uh if you want to have that engagement join the courses link down below email us for a bundle if you want one at staffmecaven.com okay so what do we need to know though about these weights this is something we talked about this morning in the life I believe and I said this morning I thought it was crazy but I think it's accurate I believe that everybody else being underweight equities is actually a market Hedge for moi in other words if everybody else is underweight then anytime there's a little dip Italy doodler somebody else just comes in to buy and that ends up creating a floor under Equity prices for me see I drew this out this morning on the live where the purple line shows you prices of stocks the bottom line is time and the green line is I believe that people are going to allocate to stocks more over time that's part of the Nike Swoosh thesis but because people are so underweight every bad event gets bought and when every bad event gets bought you end up having a floor that floor is actually a free Hedge for people who own stocks now that's really awesome because a lot of people are like ah you know I got a hedge in fact what inspired me to talk about this was this lady this morning on cnbc's like wow well we didn't miss the rally we've just been hedging I'm like okay hedging is no excuse for being under allocated and then of course we went through this TS Lombard piece and we were talking about how basically we have positive real rates and yeah we might get another 25 basis point hike which is priced in at this point another 25 BP fully priced in some folks are like Kevin why why is the market not going down then if we just priced in another 25 BP because we're talking about 25 to 50 BP last year we were talking about 500 BPS ahead of us we're one tenth of the pain ahead of us who cares look right through that and then you look at company earnings like Nike which we got to talk briefly about Nike okay so Nike first of all you're still in the earnings recession right you've got net income that's down 28 year over year but what was remarkable about Nike was they actually expect that their full price realization they've enjoyed over the last year which has helped them prop up prices will Wane that there's too much competition that we're still in a discounting environment and even though they're going to try to raise prices one to three percent in in the next year starting tomorrow July 1 through the next year raise prices one to three percent low single digits which is not a lot that's right in line with inflation where inflation should be they're actually talking more about having to potentially liquidate more inventory because they're still elevated on inventory and we're still in a promotional Market those are some of the things that we analyze by the way also again in the course member live streams because we go through the earnings um we go through the earnings calls we did a fundamental on on Facebook as well I think on Monday we're doing ion q and Canadian Solar so we just go through analyze analyze analyze and get a full database of all these analyzes but this I mean broadly combined with the pce numbers we're getting here we're just not seeing signs of potentially this explosion again with the exception of air travel maybe although the last CPI reports showed negative for the last two months in a row for air travel airfare is year over year though pricey and that's why a lot of companies are buying planes like crazy it's one of the reasons I have exposure to Embraer I think it's a more Pure Play I don't think it says uh you know overvalued as potentially something like a Boeing where you've got first of all the max issues but then you've also got more of the military and defensive uh Investments that can flow into this whereas with embra air it's just a plain manufacturer and they make Great Planes usually you get more of the regional planes if you have ever been on like a short flight which I'm sure you all have but if you've ever been on like a 30 to 90 minute flight most of those planes pull that seat back pocket out look at it I bet you you're flying on an Embry airplane you've probably been on them before they're phenomenal the Brazilians they've done a great job with these plans so Embry air is another stock that I've been uh acquiring since about 11 bucks I think right now it's a little bit higher than that what do we have like 1544 so we've had some recovery here uh but anyway pay attention to that one so otherwise what do we have broadly here so we have some crypto news we've got some inflation news and uh Apple had a three trillion evaluation and everybody's taking off to party on Tuesday uh now what else well I do expect that we get would have some volatility towards the end of the day today as we finalize our end of the year rebalancing but it may not actually happen today what do I mean by that think about that for a moment uh end of half Year by the way I shouldn't have said end of year it's end of half year so think about that why would that not potentially be today why I got to think about I'm like oh wait a minute you have a settlement time frame if you really want to be rebalanced by today you would have already done your selling over the last week because you have at least you have t plus two trade plus two days to settle so if you want to be settled up by the end of the half a year you're already done rebalancing so that could actually be a positive Catalyst I think going into really the next second half of a year so you know I don't want to continue to have this impression of that I'm only a Perma Optimist I promise every single day I'm looking for the bear narrative every single day I'm reading reports all day long this is what I do on screen now every single day I'm looking at charts like this trying to understand what's going on no inventory bottlenecks anymore even Inland it's not just the ports it's it's uh chassis it's trucks it's warehouses every single day I'm trying to look at reports and understand what's going on no massive surges of restocking expected manufacturers and purchaser manager indexes uh indices still slightly low uh which is good it's not an inflationary impetus it is a disinflationary impetus uh really another raid hike already from the FED being priced in is fantastic and potentially increasing bets for another 25 BP thereafter Market doesn't care anymore about the FED as long as we don't get an inflation surprise like that one scary chart and it is a scary chart some people honestly were trying to make this argument that like this chart doesn't matter that the bank of England reporting uh along with uh the United Kingdom that uh their inflation gauge shot up to a 31 year high some people like oh this doesn't matter and I'm like what are you smoking like legit what are you on to say this chart does not matter this chart is really bad this is core inflation jumping to the highest level since 1992.
the problem is you started petering out you started having a decline in core inflation but no all of a sudden it goes from like 5.8 percent to 7.1 that's horrible if that happened in the United States we'd have massive problems I probably instantly turn into a bear I don't think I would flip-flop I don't think it'd be enough to instantly flip-flop but I would go oh okay maybe maybe buy some hedges which volatility might Spike if that happens so maybe it makes sense to have some Hedges going into it next CPI report is on the 12th uh mark your calendar for the 12th let me give you some expectations really quick final reminder course is expiring tonight email us at Kevin sorry staff meet kevin.com is where you get a faster response really doesn't matter which one you email but you'll get a faster response at staff uh and then uh you can ask about bundles or whatever just let us know which ones you're looking at so CPI expectation for July 12th is CPI month over month point two CPI core point three both of those a little changed from last month and then the year over year expected to be at five percent for core the headline is not out yet that might be even lower so anyway look there's the news for you I hopefully you appreciated this but holy moly uh I wasn't expecting uh to cover all of this it was a good 19 minutes I think we did well I think that deserves a like and I almost never ask for a like on a video so smash that like button subscribe to the channel if you haven't already and well I said I wouldn't pitch it again so I'll make sure not to pitch that the courses have an expiring coupon code link down below and nobody provides more value than meet Kevin thanks for watching
Comments 0