저자: Dylan · 외국인
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연준 50bp 인하 이후 TLT 등 장기채 방향을 점검. 금리 인하 사이클로 TLT 상승 여지를 보나 110~135 구간 도달은 최소 6개월~1년 이상 걸릴 것으로 봄. 실업률 Sahm Rule 0.5 접근, 8월 감원 급증 등 경기침체 신호를 주시하며 침체가 아니면 상승 제한. 시장 기대치가 이미 반영돼 있어 TLT는 공정가치 근처라는 견해. 발언자는 TLT 1,125주 보유 중(평단 91.84).
다듬은 글
hey welcome back to two super guys trox I'm Dylan and I'm bnie and we had that 50 BPS rate cut and I know there's been people asking the comments what does that mean for TLT or any of the bond ETFs there's a bunch of them okay um so this is going to address that and what I am also doing because tlts looking pretty sexy um so just a brief history here these red lines are all rate Cuts sorry hikes I got to stop saying that wrong rate hikes okay so this is going from 2020 and up so you can see the effect it has on TLT so this is obviously going from zero to 5 and a half all right you have your period of super high inflation and then oh let me do this so you can see my mouse super high inflation this these are Hefty Hefty rate hikes this was six we went from 0 to 4% all right you can see there's kind of like a a delayed effect and I talked about this in other videos of like two months so it's not immediate right so I know that you know we have been on a little bit of an up slope here but I don't think we're going to you know hit 120 from one you know rate cut I think it's going to be some time you know at least six months maybe more maybe more more to a year um here's TLT more zoomed in so these are the points that I am looking at that I'm trying to hit so you have the 200 moving average right here here this is a line of resistance and then I don't think we're going to hit this unless there's a recession if I'm being completely honest what the values of those two uh 110 and then 135 oh okay I don't so we're TLT really does well especially as protection for for uh my portfolio I'll show you how much I have in it I have a I have a lot in it um it's it's if there is a recession as I showed in previous videos it spikes incredibly like a wild percentage now drone pow was pretty confident that there's not going to be a recession I was surprised to hear that I was also surprised to see this is your favorite thing your federal CME watch tool yeah C Federal watch tool they're basically saying we're g to have another 25% as to 25 BPS both times with a 98% probability here that's you know that's pretty high wow yeah so you're looking at 50/50 on the next meeting whether or not we see a 25 basis point cut and then you're seeing almost certainty that we'll have 50 basis points though by the December meeting or the end of this year so either 2525 or 050 I would I mean I was very surprised on the 50 to be honest so I I would it it's really going to depend on this October 6th uh number that I'll talk about here this is your your uh inverted yield curve so you know we pass pass it there was some speculation if we're going to come back down no we are we're heading straight up here we're going for it right this is a this is a done deal off rocket ship yes I've talked about this Som rule before I just wanted to bring this up and I'm going to show you the value so this has predicted every recession it's been right every time it is happening again and even the Creator is like no no no no no I don't think this is going to lead to a recession they had some arguments it was on immigration and some other things I feel like it's weird even though because it's it's getting higher and they haven't spoken it had peaked above 0.5 so the rule is um when the three-month moving average of national unemployment Rises uh by 0.5 percentage points or more from the low in the previous 12 months it's it's just getting higher um I'll show you that this red arrow just so you know it did hit 0.
five for one month and then came back down okay so theoretically if we go above 0.5 and comes back down it may not happen we're just going up so 053 July 057 August uh we'll get the September numbers end of September and more importantly we're going to get the unemployment numbers which is what I have been saying is the most important thing so drone pal we talked about his speech he I mean he's seems pretty confident that we're good to go did you did you get that from him absolutely he is fully on board with the soft Landing Theory and you know he he does highlight some interesting points about how in this economic cycle jobs have come more into balance by having fewer job openings available than it has been by via like layoffs right okay so it is a unique pattern we are observing during this like cycle of tightening and economic you know rebalancing as he kept uh you know referring it to as such well so that's where this gets interesting um layoff sworded in August hitting their highest total for the month in 15 years um now granted guys I don't know what the outplacement firm Challenger gray and Christmas is so this may not be a reputable Source this is the article that's going around on on uh unusual whales CNBC I'm not familiar with them so if someone's like hey they're idiots I would just disregard this data entirely all right essentially huge layoffs uh job Cuts totaled 75,4 191 193% higher than July though it's only 1% higher than a year ago um on the hiring front companies said they were adding just 6,100 new workers up nearly 2500 since July but again down more than 21% from last year and then August is Surge and job Cuts ref reflex growing economic uncertainty and shifting market dynamics so the the early August numbers are going to be pretty huge sorry early October numbers right here where is it there you go 104 so that's going to be two weeks yeah it's coming up that's for sure I there's just I you know I've done a couple videos about it there hasn't been a time especially when we hit the S rule where if we're shooting up where there wasn't a recession so we went to 4.3 we're down to 4.2 if this stay is around 441 then we could be good I think drum's right I think I think Mr Powell is correct but if this is shooting up I just don't I just just just not with the data shows I don't I I think he called for a peak or the Federal Reserve called for a Peak at 4.4 for like the end of this year um but if anything has been obvious during watching their predictions come to fruition over the last like couple years that we've been doing on this channel they're never right I mean they have a tough job ton of variables like geez um but yeah we'll see I'm keeping my eye on that number Marcus just hit all-time highs so we'll have to you know see what happens here here's my TLT holding so um I have an average cost 9184 I have uh 1,25 oh th 1125 shares so I am sitting on this uh for a while until ideally 110 um I I did look at if anyone was curious the correlation of the interest rate with TLT and where the value was it's pointless because unfortunately we have never been sitting at 4 to 4.5% long for more than like two months every single time we've hit that we're transitioning from low to high so it's all it was there for a month and a half so it was pointless we we've done it twice and both times it was going from really high or really low so it didn't make any sense well my boy is committed with this position sizing okay we've learned that this video there go uh you know I I I highly implore you and anyone else watching to watch this video by that Professor from NYU aswath deodoran he put one out yesterday about how dispelling a lot of Federal Reserve Miss and how really the the thing that they affect is is confidence they actually have no like direct relationship with almost anything okay all right confidence 25 minutes worth of you know lecture showing going through all the data about how like okay you know are they actually a bell weather do they actually move the markets as we saw this time particularly you know mortgages and bonds had forun the federal you know Reserve decision right oh we were kind of already expecting it and pricing it in in many ways yeah no and that's one thing I I want people who are in the TLT trade to realize we were chilling around 90 and then everyone was expecting a cut and we went to 100 so it's not like we're going to go from this cut to higher we're probably at fair value it's not going to this is where it should be it's I I wouldn't anyone who's in it who's like oh why aren we going up from the the half cut we we did go up we we were hanging around 90 for a long time yeah yeah it's crazy it's it's more about the expectation of what they will do rather than their actual actions that move the market that's interesting I have to watch that all right guys let's know what you think next one
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