저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Tom Lee는 2025년 관세 충격 급락 후 V자 반등을 근거로 주식 추가 10% 하락 가능성을 낮게 보고, 연준의 금리 인하 필요성과 완화적 금융환경을 강조. 미국 부채 우려는 35년간 반복된 이야기일 뿐 달러 패권과 미국 우위는 지속된다고 주장. 비트코인은 인터넷 1996년 수준의 초기 단계로 기관 유입과 스테이블코인 확산을 근거로 상승 여력을 제시, 이더리움은 스테이블코인 백본으로 재부상할 것이라 봄.
다듬은 글
If you're buying Bitcoin today, it's still early. I don't think it's too late. So, if you have zero exposure to Bitcoin and you feel like you missed it, 95% of investors have zero Bitcoin exposure. So, you're still way ahead if you're buying Bitcoin today. If you look at Bitcoin wallets, comparing it to the internet, we're back to 1996 levels.
internet went exponential from 1996. So, it's still the earliest days. I think Bitcoin is very useful because in the future, we're not going to be able to trust anything cuz cyber security, there's nothing secure anymore. The Bitcoin blockchain is the most trusted blockchain. And that's why the United States wants to have a million Bitcoin.
US companies are buying Bitcoin. Banks will soon carry Bitcoin as collateral. One of the largest chances of this decade is still being missed by the majority of investors. Bitcoin is poised to go through a phase that might completely redefine its market value. According to Tom Lee, co-founder and head of research at Fundstrat, despite Bitcoin's impressive price performance this year, adoption is still relatively low.
Meanwhile, massive inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs indicate that institutional investors are finally making a serious move. The problem is that short-term volatility and market noise have kept most individual investors out of the market. According to Tom Lee, this discrepancy between price action and adoption data is generating a unique window of opportunity.
He believes that structural demand, macroeconomic factors, and growing institutional use are positioning Bitcoin for a big repricing before this cycle ends. Waiting for the ideal entry could cause you to miss it completely. If you're intrigued by bold predictions and deep financial insights, make sure to like this video, subscribe to the channel, and turn on notifications for more engaging content.
Thank you for your support, and enjoy the video and the bitcoins. Um so but we have a lot of geopolitical risk so the valuation don't seem too cheap but what's your overall assessment uh of the market where we are and how do you uh anticipate the market in the second half and 2026? Well, the stock market in 2025 faced a black swan because tariff liberation day was a shock and it created a downward spiral in stocks falling 20% in the fastest pace uh or one of the fastest pace in a 100 years.
There have only been 12 times in history that stocks fell a similar amount and a similar speed. And I think the mistake many people made was that that shock turned people bearish. As you mentioned, we did think there would be a correction this year. But the reason I think we didn't turn bearish even though this was a huge decline is three things.
One, um, we didn't expect President Trump to stick with the tariff terms. So even though in the beginning they claimed this was the deal and everyone had to take it, we thought they would eventually walk back um those terms which is what's happened and in fact what we've seen so far is the tariffs are much much milder than many people thought at the start of the year.
So we're actually in a better place. The second is many economists convinced you that there'd be a recession. Do you remember uh all these economists said a recession's guaranteed and that's why everybody panicked and sold their stocks. But we don't necessarily listen to economists. We prefer to watch what the high yield market is doing.
And the high yield market while it showed some turbulence actually moved in a way that said there might be a growth scare. So there's a difference between a growth scare and a recession. A growth scare just means everybody gets cautious, which is understandable. And the third reason we didn't turn bearish is that waterfall declines like we saw usually come back as a V-shaped recovery.
And that was our argument that this would be a V-shaped bounce. And in fact, we were pretty convinced of it because the VIX, which is a measure of volatility, jumped to 60. And if you look at the last 35 years, anytime the VIX has moved above 60, no matter what you think, you have to buy the stock market because that's pure terror.
The market is so scared they're not pricing anything and that's why you have to buy that. And so stocks had a V-shaped bounce and now that we're almost back to the old highs, I'm finding a lot of people are still bearish. Maybe in the audience you guys are still bearish thinking, I don't see why stocks came back, so I don't really want to buy the stock market now.
But here's something to keep in mind. In 2025, we've already had a 20% decline. The chances of a 10% decline between now and year end is very low. It might even be statistically 0%. So maybe the stock market could trade sideways for a little bit, but the chances of us declining again are very low. The Fed is not cutting rates right now and Fed Chair Powell said he's not cutting interest rates because he's expecting inflation to rise over the summer because of tariffs.
That might kind of make sense. I mean, I'd say if someone said that to me, I'd say I understand that prices should be going up because of tariffs, but that is not actually how monetary policy should be administered. The Fed is really supposed to overlook supply shocks. So, if you have a supply shock like a tax and it causes a one-time rise in price, the the central bank is not supposed to adjust monetary policy for that because they're the the Fed is trying to control demand.
Meaning, if there's so much demand for something that it causes prices to go up, they try to tighten monetary policy. But because of tariffs is more like a supply shock. The Fed should actually look through it. The bond market is starting to make that conclusion. On Wednesday's FOMC meeting, the bond market disagreed with the Fed.
Interest rates actually went down in the last couple of days because they don't believe the Fed should be on hold. And that's also been our argument that the Fed, if they're not cutting now, they have to do more cuts next year. The US stock market has held up well this year despite all the anxiety around tariffs, inflation, and the Federal Reserve's rate tightening.
According to Tom Lee, a lot more advantageous era is about to begin. He believes that both stocks and cryptocurrencies may benefit from loosening financial conditions and a potential change in Fed policy by 2026. Beyond these brief market cycles, however, Tomley also discusses a more significant concern for investors, US debt, and the dollar's future.
People have been warning about growing deficits, excessive borrowing, and a potential collapse for decades. However, the US continues to dominate corporate power, innovation, and global finance. The dollar continues to dominate international trade because there is now no viable alternative, not because everything is ideal, but that might not be the case.
Bitcoin is starting to be seen as a possible alternative to the dollar. As more institutions, countries, and individuals begin to question whether fiat currencies can last long term, it raises an important question. Could Bitcoin really replace the dollar someday? Please take a moment to like this video, subscribe to the channel, and enable post notifications for future Bitcoin, macroeconomic, and digital asset content before we go any further.
Now, let's get into his powerful predictions. Hedge fund manager. So, how we should look at understand the the physical uh situation and any potential risk here. When you read the newspaper or you hear financial commentators, a lot of people tell you the US is in trouble because of the debt, the deficit and the US has unsustainable debt.
And that's true because we know the path for the US debt is unsustainable. But here's the thing. When I started on Wall Street in the '9s, that's also what I heard on Wall Street. I remember our economists and our bond heads of fixed income saying the US is on an unsustainable path for debt. And that was 35 years ago.
So for the next 35 years, you're going to hear the same thing. The US is on an uns unsustainable path of debt. Yet it's probably not going to make a difference. That's my opinion. But I do agree that we're in a very strange world because the US prints money and they print a lot of dollars and yet the borrowing cost is really low.
It's very mysterious to me, but I don't think today's levels represent any sort of break point. And here's a really simple way to think of it. Um, one, dollars is the reason people have used, you know, own bonds, right? and use the US economy and dollars are mostly used for speculation. You know, for every dollar of GDP activity that we have, the dollar is traded in oil, bonds, equities 400 times.
So, as long as the US is the most liquid economy in the world, we're going to print a lot of dollars and interest rates are going to stay low. Um, and the second is that as much as you hear stories that say the US is losing its importance, so the rest of the world is becoming more dominant and that's why the US is in trouble.
One, again, I've heard that story for 35 years. Everyone's told me the US exceptionalism has been over and it yet has never ended. If you look at the 25 largest companies in the world, 21 of the 25 largest are in America. So just because US borrowing costs might change, is Germany going to suddenly be the place where the next Mag 7 comes?
Like just because borrowing costs change in the US, will Germany suddenly be the next Silicon Valley? I mean, if you believe that, then you should bet against the US. I'm very skeptical of that. So, I think you shouldn't make a portfolio decision thinking stocks are going to fall because someone told you the US can't fund its deficit.
You did mention that you were one of the first on Wall Street to make a call on Bitcoin, but do you agree that Bitcoin, Ethereum, these um cryptocurrencies will continue to do very well um uh for the next couple of years? Yeah, I mean I think Bitcoin is if you're buying Bitcoin today, it's still early.
I don't think it's too late. So, if you have zero exposure to Bitcoin and you feel like you missed it, 95% of investors have zero Bitcoin exposure. So, you're still way ahead if you're buying Bitcoin today. If you look at Bitcoin wallets, comparing it to the internet, we're back to 1996 levels. Internet went exponential from 1996, so it's still the earliest days.
I think Bitcoin is very useful because in the future we're not going to be able to trust anything because cyber security there's nothing secure anymore. We can uh sample your voice. I mean even someone takes our voice translates into Korean using my voice. You'll never know what's true anymore. So you need to be able to trust a system.
The blockchain, the Bitcoin blockchain is the most trusted blockchain and that's why the United States wants to have a million Bitcoin. US companies are buying Bitcoin. Banks will soon carry Bitcoin as collateral. But Ethereum is really important, too. Did any of you buy the Circle IPO or own Circle?
Circle is a stable coin and they just went public 10 days ago at $31. It's now $242. What is the ticker code? C RC L C L C L Circle is a stable coin. It's the second largest. Stable coins are being pushed by the United States government. Here's the thing. Circle runs on Ethereum. Stable coins run on Ethereum.
So, as stable coins explode, Ethereum is the backbone for stable coins. So, I think Ethereum is going to make a big comeback as well. So, I think those two are useful. And then Salana I like, but it it's not nearly as used as um Ethereum. Tom Lee points out that although concerns about US debt and deficits attract media attention, they have existed for decades without threatening America's hegemony in corporate power, technology, and international banking.
He doesn't view growing debt as an imminent threat to markets and thinks the US dollar will continue to be strong as long as it is the most liquid currency in the world. Lee, however, sees significant potential in cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Bitcoin. According to him, Bitcoin is still in its infancy as a technology, much like the internet was in the middle of the '90s before it revolutionized society.
In a time when deep fakes and artificial intelligence manipulations are undermining trust everywhere else, he thinks that Bitcoin is the most trustworthy digital asset due to its fixed supply and secure blockchain. Because Ethereum supports stable coins like Circle, which are expanding quickly with government backing, Lee also sees Ethereum becoming stronger.
Even if Salana has promise, he believes Ethereum is now still far more practical and widely used. Overall, according to Tom Lee, markets are still high, the US is still in control, and cryptocurrency is still in its infancy despite concerns about debt. Investors who know where the world is going may see significant gains in the next years if his predictions come to pass.
So, what do you think? Is Bitcoin truly the internet of money? And will Ethereum remain the backbone of future digital finance? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Remember to like this video, subscribe to the channel, and enable notifications if you thought his viewpoint was helpful so you don't miss any updates.
We'd love to know what you think about the future of cryptocurrency markets, so please share your ideas in the comments section. We appreciate your time and hope to see you in the next video.
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