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There have been reports of an initial investment of $5 billion being directed to the Middle East from the White House to help with its reconstruction. Donnie T is now playing out a very familiar scenario. Remember how it was last time? Oh, we're not sending them $300 billion. This comes on the eve of Bessant threatening to halt all air travel to and from Iran or anywhere in the world with Iranian airlines on the 23rd , which is Wednesday.
Just a day after "Taco Tuesday," which is technically scheduled for tomorrow. We also have information that the President and Foreign Minister of Iran are heading to New York. Actually, I just received a note 10 minutes ago that the Minister of Foreign Affairs has already arrived in New York to participate in the UN General Assembly.
This is according to Iranian media. We already knew he was on his way, but they just announced that he had indeed arrived, and he was the most belligerent of the group. The president we see is a bit softer, and the foreign minister is more of a " war hawk" on Iran, and both of them appear at the UN.
This is a good sign for Donald Trump, especially considering he is using his classic strategy of escalation before de-escalation. They literally call it "escalation for the sake of de-escalation." Now I want to show you what Bessant said this morning and what's happening with this $ 5 billion deal, because you should hear about it .
I want to warn you in advance . Because today we're shining with Alpha Report, and if you want to join in, we're extending what was on Friday by 10 and a half hours . You can access Alpha membership before the $900 price increase. This is a huge increase . We are updating the site, but Meta has worked very well.
We have about six figures in profit on Meta. We were buying up Meta like crazy. We sent out purchase notifications regarding how we buy Meta. And today it has soared by 12 and a half percent. So, in honor of this, we're extending the validity of the Warsh's Balls coupon from last week, which is now called Meta's Balls.
Anyway, we'll talk about that a little later. Let's listen to Bessant for a minute and talk about $5 billion and optimism about Iran. Let's listen. Aviation, maritime transportation, cryptocurrency, gold. Oh, on September 23rd, all Iranian airlines, all Iranian airlines will be grounded worldwide. And how will we do it?
If they land, you won't be able to provide them with fuel, you won't be able to provide maintenance services, you won't be able to sell them tickets, or you'll be excluded from the dollar system. And what we are seeing now is a sanctions attack. This is part of the economic "D-Day." They are finally waking up and finding ways to really put pressure on Iran.
And one of the ways they plan to do this is to completely stop air traffic with Iran worldwide. This is very interesting as it coincides with talk of a potential $5 billion investment in the Gulf region. The Wall Street Journal just reported this along with news of a possible deal between Iran, Oman, and the United States.
Let's take all this in order. First, since it's a little easier, let's touch on the agreement with Qatar. So, the essence of the Qatar agreement. Qatar, I quote, "is working to facilitate at least a short-term agreement between the US and Iran." It is assumed that this will help us get through the holidays, until December 31st.
You don't have to be a course participant to know this, but I've been tweeting and saying on the channel that I'm optimistic about the market because I think we're past the peak of the fear about Iran. And you'll notice that on September 12th I wrote: "The stock market is about to skyrocket." We have passed the peak of fear.
" Listen to me." We discussed how Donald Trump is pushing the idea: “Oh, there will be no deal before the election. " The Americans will not object, because we must stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons." It's so classic. This is a classic Donald Trump tactic: oh, the war will last forever. A Saudi Arabian oil pipeline facility has just been attacked.
We have Brent oil prices between 107 and 109. We identified the peak of fear here and said that this is how the stock market is going up. A lot of people are angry with me because today the stock market started to rise rapidly, which is just crazy. And we predicted this in our Alpha report. We literally said we were targeting QQQ's all-time highs before Black Friday .
We are now within 1% of this forecast. We bought at a drawdown of 700 and sent a buy signal. When I saw 700, I thought: buy, send a signal, boom. We discussed QQQ's resistance test at 715 on Friday and they held. About the fact that this was a test before our rapid takeoff, baby. I also wrote in our Alpha report that we are at the peak of fear.
Before the CPI, before the Fed—it was the height of fear. And he said this morning: if we hold 725, we will soon go to 735. We literally flew past the 735 mark. But why is this happening? Partly because we knew Taco was coming. And although there are no guarantees yet, so far so good, that's exactly what I wrote in X.
So far so good. These talks about the deal with Oman are great. And this deal with Qatar, right? So , you have this combination: Oman working with Iran on a deal in the Strait of Hormuz. Let's be clear: these are two different countries, right? So, Oman is working with Iran on a revenue agreement in the Strait of Hormuz.
And then Qatar works with Iran and the United States in coordination with Pakistan. Why is this note about Pakistan so interesting? Well, the note about Pakistan is very interesting, because there are records, it seems, in PMIP, we are looking for...Oh, here they are. Uh, is that what they're into? Uh, we'll find that in a moment.
Oh , there it is. E. Pakistan . Perfectly. OK. So, this was exactly the material. Pakistan's interior minister met with his Iranian counterpart to discuss not only bilateral relations but also to try to establish supplies through Iran. So these meetings are taking place to structure the mediation ahead of the UN General Assembly meeting and the expected backroom talks between Trump and Iran facilitated by Pakistan.
Now, one of the reasons we're hearing about this potential $5 billion investment deal and that there's mediation going on right now towards dialogue between Iran and the US, even if it's just a short-term deal, rumored to be by the end of the year. Why is this happening? Because people are seriously suffering, not only in Iran, but all over the world.
Look at this. Iranian factories are facing a growing shortage of raw materials. Thanks to the "comeback kid" in the chat who sent me this material. I really appreciate you helping me. But look at this. So it turns out that Iran also publishes inflation data and purchasing managers' indices similar to the Chamber of Commerce, as we do in the US.
Listen to this. The index , which measures manufacturers' inventories of raw materials , fell to 39.5. Now, these are diffusion indicators. This may sound a little complicated, but it's really simple. You start at 50. If stocks are falling sharply, you go down from 50. If they are rising, you go up from 50.
They are at 39.3. This is a serious reduction. So, stocks are collapsing partly because they simply can't get raw materials into the country, making it difficult to produce cars, bombs, or anything else. But it's not just about this Purchasing Managers Index showing pictures of what I call a 90s-style Ford Escort.
I don't understand why they still make such new cars. They literally look like they're from the 90s, but whatever . According to the Statistical Center of Iran, inflation is currently at 69%. Crazy numbers. This is partly because supplies are very low and there is a great desperate need for materials as the war and blockade have effectively closed their borders, not only from the sea but also on land.
So, remember that this region includes Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Let's open the map in this order. Let's see. Here, please. Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan. Although Pakistan and Iran share a southern border, I mentioned it because Iran also borders Turkey. Here are the borders used for transportation.
These roads , leading to Turkey and further to Istanbul, are another route to the Black Sea for supplies to Russia or to the Mediterranean Sea. So, you can go through Turkey. It is possible through Iraq, from where the cargo could eventually be sent through Syria. Or through the port of Karachi. That is, the goods are transported overland through Iran to the Pakistani border, and then shipped from the port city of Karachi in Pakistan.
And, of course, there is Afghanistan, which helps them enter the markets of China, India, or other countries. But the problem is that Iran, being in the middle, is trapped. Listen to this. It was an article in the Wall Street Journal. 3,700 trucks are stuck on the Iranian side of the border with Turkey, with delays reaching 20 days.
At the main border crossing into Pakistan, 700 trucks are waiting to enter and exit. Only 40 trucks are allowed to cross the border at a time, as due to the numerous economic sanctions against Iran, many take bribes just to let vehicles through. So this is a disaster. At the same time, the country suffers from inflation and a complete lack of activity in the Strait of Hormuz.
The blockade by the US simply does not allow anything to move. One driver told an Iranian news agency that he had been stuck for several days on the Pakistani side of the border with meat for Iran, where prices were skyrocketing . All this garbage is spoiling. On the border with Afghanistan, truck drivers also complained about waiting for days to export Iranian iron ore.
So, Iranian ore is going out, and finished materials that can be used for bombs or something else are coming in. There's even a note about tons of stuck apricots that have gone bad due to delays. Besides, it's hot, because it's summer. The temperature is kept around 35 degrees Celsius. Last week there were over 38, which only makes things worse for Iran.
So what is this talk of a potential $5 billion deal? This is an exclusive from the Wall Street Journal. And that's quite interesting. You will see it on the screen right now. Oh, sorry, this is a Meta's Balls promo code. Ovva . We were just programming the site to increase the price by $900, net price $900.
Last chance to buy. But then we saw Meta and thought we should give people another chance. One more chance. You are so generous, Kevin. Anyway, I'm still optimistic. I don't know if that was clear . But look at this . The US is now offering $5 billion to create a fund to rebuild energy facilities in the Persian Gulf.
Okay, what do we have here? The Trump administration has offered $5 billion to help Middle Eastern countries rebuild their energy infrastructure. The goal is to bring this amount to 10 billion, involving Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, and so on. To pool their capital and create an investment fund totaling $10 billion.
The problem is that skeptics ask: why create an investment fund if there is no peace, because Iran can simply bomb these facilities again . And that is why many are saying that while these investment funds are being discussed , similar funds may be discussed for Iran itself. Remember, the last time we had a memorandum of understanding, the expectation was, "Hey, Iran will not only get some of its capital back, but they will also get money for investment." Of course, many mocked Donald Trump for this, because Trump always mocked Obama for unblocking Iranian money for Iran.
And now people are saying, "Wait, Donald Trump is not only going to give them back their own money, he's going to give them even more." And this could potentially be at the expense of taxpayers' money. We don't know. We assume, obviously, that a $5 billion fund to help rebuild infrastructure in the region would indeed consist of taxpayer money, which would likely require congressional approval.
So we'll see if this ever comes to fruition. But here we see Iran's foreign minister negotiating with its neighbors to facilitate imports. Yes , the country is literally begging its neighbors to allow these borders to function, because right now they are being mercilessly strangled from all sides. Now, that doesn't mean they do n't have a fighting chance.
They definitely are. We know that they are actively coordinating with the Houthis. The problem is that they are likely supplying the Houthis with the very cruise missiles that hit the aviation fuel depot outside the Saudi capital . This is problematic. Jet fuel prices have already skyrocketed worldwide.
I mentioned that if I went to where I used to fill up when I flew regularly, I could get jet fuel for about $3.25. I know this sounds pretty familiar. But the main point is that jet fuel prices have also skyrocketed. And so when they target anti- aircraft gun depots, it matters. So here's my Foreflight showing my home airport here.
Camarillo charges me $6.27 per gallon of jet fuel. The situation gets even worse, obviously, if you get into truly communist places. Like, do you want to be really robbed ? You could go to, for example, Las Vegas International Airport, they will rip you off. Or another place that will rip you off, even though it's a nice area—Signature Aviation is right here, they'll rip you off three times.
And then they'll bill you $12 per gallon. So you put 1,000 gallons of fuel in an empty Phenom, and you know, that's already $12,000 in fuel. OK. So, look at this. Trump is considering a $5 million fund to revive golf. We just saw this in a Wall Street Journal article. This will apparently be called PACT.
Partnership for Allied Trust and Building, or PACT. So, they literally already have a name for it. That sounds pretty optimistic. Okay, that's not bad. Turkish Airlines suspends flights until March 27 due to pressure from US sanctions. In addition, Trump says that we are constantly communicating, but we do not want to go to war with them .
The whole idea is that for the past few days, Trump has been threatening to make a decision between destroying them or something else. The bottom line is that they expect: when the Iranians show up, they want them to be in the weakest position so that Donald Trump has the best opportunity to negotiate.
Look at this. This, I think, is just...this is real Trumpian pettiness. Although, to some extent, I find it quite funny, but only because it is a very interesting negotiation tactic. The US denies visas to members of the Iranian president's delegation ahead of the UN General Assembly. It's like the biggest middle finger in the world.
Hey, the whole world is going to meet at the UN. We will talk about the agreement, discuss matters on the margins of the United Nations. Come, take your delegation. And then you literally deny visas to some people from the Iranian president's delegation. Not because these people are probably bad in themselves, but simply as a pure middle finger that these people now have to fly home on the president's plane alone, while the president stays with part of the team he came to America with.
This is the most brilliant way to make those Iranians tremble and put Donald Trump on the strongest path to a negotiated settlement. By the way, this is a complete "D-move". I type D with a capital D. But I will say that it's quite funny because it's just brilliant . It's mean, but it's brilliant. To me, it all comes together .
This "Taco" is coming. "Taco" will be before the election. I said it. I said this 3 weeks ago. I think things will get worse before they get better, but expect "Tacos" before the election. What happened? We received seven strikes on tankers in 7 days. We received numerous strikes from US Air Force fighter jets.
We have Iran trying to launch MLRS. We have the Houthis seizing the port of Moha and attacking Saudi Arabia. It was all part of the "it's going to get worse before it gets better" thing. Then we said, "Okay, the Saudi attacks happened. This is it. This is the peak moment of fear. Oil at 109. Buy on the dip." We send notifications.
We say : "Buy on the dip. This is a bullish signal." Like, that's good. Here we are at the General Assembly. We don't know if we'll actually make a deal, but we're very, very optimistic. And of course, there was a lot of nervousness about the Houthis this weekend, but remember, the Iran deal controls the Houthis.
The Houthis allegedly used cruise missiles to attack parts of Saudi Arabia. Guess where they get them from? Apparently, they successfully hit an anti- aircraft gun depot outside their main, you know, capital city airport. They get it from Iran. But for Iran to continue producing drones and bombs, they need imported supplies, and stocks are melting.
So they understand that although yes, they still have weapons left, as do we, both sides need a little break to reload, which, by the way, I made a crude joke about during the memorandum of understanding during the ceasefire on April 7, that Trump is taking time to reload. Of course, it was a bullish period , but I think we're in for another bullish run in the coming weeks if we actually get a deal.
I am optimistic. Now there are also comments on nuclear weapons. So, apparently, Iran's triple urgency bill was sent to parliament to withdraw from the nuclear non-proliferation agreement or treaty , which calls for nuclear testing as soon as possible . In my opinion, this is Iran's way of trying to counter-negotiate.
Hey, Pakistan wasn't supposed to have nuclear weapons , but they got them, and now they're trying to coordinate peace around the world. So I have no doubt that this war has strengthened Iran's desire to obtain nuclear weapons. We already know this. At this point, Iran will talk about their desire to have nuclear weapons as part of the negotiations, because while this bill is going around in circles, now they can bargain, "Oh, I'll need a little time to give up these nuclear bombs.
You know, the bill is passing." Of course, no one has touched Pickaxe Mountain yet . I think so, and maybe I'm thinking about it too optimistically. I think this is a strategic move by Trump, because you don't want to take away everything that is left for negotiations. That's why , I think, he strategically leaves it as part of, well, you know, you don't want to negotiate—just bomb Pickaxe Mountain.
So, here are the dates you need to know. The General Assembly will be holding side events starting tomorrow, through Sunday, and then there will be, excuse me, on Friday, and another event next Monday. That's all. So, literally, the next 7 days are critical for Donald Trump to make a deal. Absolutely critical .
So next we have, let's see, the threats—these are Donald Trump's threats that were talked about on Fox News this weekend. We talked about the Houthis and cruise missiles. Remember, they get their cruise missiles probably from Iran. Iran supports the Houthis. Like Hezbollah. So next we have a USA Today article that simply repeats Donald Trump's decision to blow up an entire country.
This is also a Trump classic. Should I blow up the entire country, or are we planning a big deal? This is what he says every time before a deal is to be made. The Wall Street Journal is now reporting that the Trump administration has proposed investing $5 billion in this new fund. The fund is called "Package".
In addition, oil prices are already falling on the assumption that Donald Trump would be willing to meet with the president of Iran. And if we look at the oil market right now, as well as the bond market's expectations for inflation, you'll see a few things. First, in the oil market, we are four cents away from the $100 mark.
This is great news. That's still a high price. This is significantly higher than it was before, but it is good news. Additionally, if we look at the 10-2-year Treasury yield curve , we see that the 2-year has risen slightly while the 10- year has fallen significantly. What does this mean? This shows that 2- year bonds rise when the Fed is expected to raise rates.
This is very closely related to the policy decisions of the Fed. 10- year bonds are less related to Fed policy and more to , "Okay, we actually have the resolve, and we're really going to control inflation expectations," what happens? 10-year bonds are falling. Here is an example of a five-year graph of expected inflation over five years.
So if I draw a rectangle right here, and, uh, let's make it transparent inside. Oh, somehow we can do this. Let's draw the inside . Let's make the inside transparent. That's it. OK. Here you see that inflation expectations on the right are starting to rise rapidly. They began to fall sharply the day the Fed raised rates.
This is the bond market telling you that inflation expectations are returning to a stable range. There is less concern that we will break out of this trading range. That's good. This compresses the 10-year and 2-year bond yield curves and actually suggests that the economy may be growing and we are moving away from the recession shock zone.
Today the 10-2 yield curve fell five basis points, which looks like 21%, but it's actually a pretty dramatic drop. But you see this drop right here. We are at the same lows as we were at the peak of the market, just when SpaceX decided to exit. Oh, wait, the schedule just updated. He became even shorter.
This is the lowest level of the 10-2 spread since 2024. Oho. Wait. Let's take a look. We were...yes, December 24th. Here we were at 21. So this is the lowest since December 2024. And when you go above 50, you're in the shock zone, right? This is a potential risk area. Release, well, you know, whatever.
I remember making the video on April 17, 2025. I was standing next to my plane then. I said this is the time to buy. And we don't say that just for fun . It's like the peak of everyone's bearish sentiment. And I mean, after that, there were 4 or 8 weeks of continuous growth . It was quite impressive.
So, anyway, I don't know, but I have the courage to a) stand behind my words with money, and b) say, "That's good." So, on the subject of courage, because for some reason I have an irresistible urge to talk about it , this is a great reminder to go to meetkevin.com. You can also go to meetreinvest.com, it's the same thing.
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