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I think Tesla is about to completely crush Uber. I hate to say this. Many people are very optimistic about Uber because the company's valuation is quite low. It seems like Uber's PEG ratio is now close to one—we'll look at the stock tab later—but that's very low for a company like this. And that really reflects market uncertainty about how the growth of this business will develop.
This is another reason why Broadcom or Nvidia trade at a PEG ratio of 1: people doubt whether this boom will continue . But if I had to choose between a PEG of 1.09 in Uber and one in Nvidia or Broadcom, I would definitely choose Nvidia or Broadcom over Uber. And I think that's because Tesla, in my opinion, is going to dominate Uber.
Something happened with Uber and Waymo this year that convinces me that Tesla is right. And no, we're not talking about the fee for robotaxi rides. They will make money from something else related to Cybercab. You will see everything for yourself in a moment. We'll go over this. So, look, Tesla shares are down about 19% year-to-date.
The situation was quite volatile. And I'm not going to claim that everything will fly straight to the stars. The company will not be sustainable if the AI bubble bursts and we plunge into a deep, dark recession. Of course , you will have problems. But I think there's something that people don't consider in the value of a Tesla, and that should be part of the assessment.
So that's what we're going to talk about. To understand this component, the changes, and the connection to Tesla's past achievements, you need to know my initial thesis about robotaxis. My original thesis regarding robotaxis, in my opinion, turned out to be wrong. That was my initial thesis about robotaxi.
People will order a taxi through the app they are most used to. So, they will open the phone. Yes, I need a ride. Honey, it's time for us to go. We are leaving. Well, and so on. We open the Uber app. Boom, we're ordering a car. Done. And I think, or rather, I thought, that the first app always wins in the end, because you use Uber 90-95% of the time, and you only go to Lyft when the prices seem ridiculous or Uber has no cars available.
And in other cases—it's Uber, Uber, Uber, you know? I thought it would be the same with robotaxi. So I thought it was a pretty smart move for Uber to say, you know, we're going to collaborate with other companies that are developing self-driving cars, like Waymo or others. And then people will be able to simply choose any transport in the Uber app.
You just choose. Oh, I want an electric car. I want XL. I want XXL. I...I don't even know what the difference is between the two of them anymore. But whatever it was, I thought it would apply to robo-taxis, that it would be like the MLS real estate market , only for cars, a kind of menu of options. It's an app where you go in and Uber gets its margin.
They have the systems and infrastructure in place to do this, and they also have a distribution network. So those were my thoughts . They not only have a network, but also a first-mover advantage. The problem with all of this is what happened between Waymo and Uber this year. So, Waymo told Uber, "We're done." "Our contract, a three-year contract in Phoenix, is over." And they made this announcement, I think, on June 29, 2026.
A quiet ending. Many people didn't even pay attention to it. I said it then, but now , after the CyberCab event, I say it even more clearly, because it's worth discussing again. But it's not just about Phoenix. Uber is also preparing to show its wings to Dallas and Austin, or, excuse me, Waymo, if I mispronounced it .
Waymo is preparing to show off Uber's drone in Dallas and Austin. And they will be out of contract there by January 2028. And in the new regions where they're launching, it seems like everything is going directly through Waymo, as it already is, say, in San Francisco or other parts of the country where they're operating.
At first I thought: I don't know, man, it's somehow more logical that Waymo will just be in Uber, and you just click "I want Waymo." "I want autopilot"—and Waymo or Tesla Robo-Taxi arrives. And so when I first heard about the partnership, I'm like: aha! This is exactly what I thought would happen. Ah , having your expectations confirmed has never been so pleasant.
And then it turned out that I was wrong. You see, what's really happening is this: people are increasingly realizing that when you use the Uber app, 95%, maybe 99% of the time you 're getting a car with a human driver, and people are getting really fed up with that. So when people need a robotaxi, they don't go to Uber to order one.
They go straight to the five-star app they can get. So when people need a robotaxi, they just open the Waymo app. And look at this crazy app. Number five in the Travel category . Five stars based on 245,000 ratings. That's right. W-Why should you bother using Uber when you can just use this? It has an impeccable reputation.
This is a great app. Waymo proved my thesis wrong. And that's actually important when it comes to Tesla, because it means that Tesla's robotaxi app can also operate in that style or with that competitiveness , which I think is very optimistic for Tesla. Now I want you to see one graph, and we'll talk more about Tesla in a moment, but I want you to look at this graph.
Just ignore the dates for a moment, but what you see here is the green section, which is Waymo, and the percentages don't matter because Waymo is starting with a smaller, you know, reach. But what you can see is that Lyft and Uber are seeing a decline in estimated downloads. It could be because you've already reached a certain saturation point, you know, it's like: how many times do you have to download the Uber app, I mean, I already have it .
But you see Waymo coming in and starting to bite off market share from Lyft and Uber . The reason I said to ignore the date for a moment is because you might think this chart is up to date, but the most recent chart I could get actually has data up to February 2025. So he is old. But my thesis is that this trend has likely continued and accelerated, especially when we look at those 245,000 five-star reviews.
Oh my god, that's like 100,000 more reviews than the last time I looked, and it still has five stars. That's right. Can we get five stars on the Meet Kevin app, please? I mean, we've had a five-star rating for a long time. We have released so many new features for it. We are at 4.9. Well, because. We will fix it.
We will do it better. But, whatever it is, what's really interesting about this is that this trend proves to me that my original thought was wrong: when people find a better product or service, they'll leave Uber like the hot potato it deserves. And I'm not saying I have anything against Uber as a company.
It's about the drivers, the subcontractors. So I'm not here to criticize Uber stock. If you own Uber stock, that's not the purpose of this video. The thing is, Waymo knows what people want. They want consistency . They don't want a driver whose phone conversations they have to listen to. They want to talk on the phone themselves.
They want their own climate control, their own music. They don't want to listen to, you know, any of the nonsense that you listen to. And I've had to listen to some pretty crazy songs in Uber. Or even a singing driver. Or they drive like maniacs. Or they drive very slowly. Or they are just very old and it takes them 7 seconds to realize that the light is green.
There's a lot going on here, and maybe it's not related to age. Maybe this person just shouldn't be driving anymore, right? Or, worst of all, they simply open the windows because they want to save fuel by not turning on the air conditioning; although the drag they create, this aerodynamic inefficiency, probably slows the car down more than if they just turned on the air conditioning.
But, honestly, this is a question for engineers to discuss. That's not for me to discuss. My opinion is that all of this points to Tesla. Tesla can get all of these benefits plus one thing. Fleet operation . You see, the hardest part , in my opinion, with these robo-taxis—and it's literally the hardest part— is having the infrastructure for cleaning and charging.
You literally need commercial space. You need commercial charging equipment, most likely DC charging equipment . Constant voltage. You need some kind of cleaning infrastructure where these machines can be fixed if there is a problem. And ultimately, it's a lot of work. Now Tesla could scale this, but why?
This will be the least profitable part of this business. Why do you need this? When you can just sell the vehicle to fleet operators and get them to sign a contract. If your star rating drops below 4.7, you are kicked out. We will buy your car from you at a 75% discount or at some depreciated cost, but you are done.
You are out of the fleet and someone else is coming to take your place. This incentivizes contractors to actually keep the products clean. It also gives contractors the opportunity to start a business, especially if they have the land and infrastructure to do so. This is another potential source of income.
Of course, they will have to work on it. This is not free money. But at the same time, they can purchase equipment that they can write off 100% thanks to Donald Trump's tax breaks. So now you have a buyer who is buying an electric car not for the $ 7,500 electric car loan , but literally for the 100% tax write-off on the depreciated asset thanks to Donald Trump's policies.
This business has effectively become a product with potentially huge margins for Tesla. And Tesla has proven in the past that with tax breaks we can get to 30% margin on these vehicles, gross margin. I think, given the fact that people can immediately depreciate these assets to the maximum. In other words, let me give you an example, okay?
Let's say you're a dentist and you have, I don't know, a really big commercial property, so you own a whole damn mall, okay? Uh, and you are your own anchor tenant. Dentistry is not an anchor tenant, but you know what I mean . But in the end, okay? You invested well, you achieved success. And a great year awaits you .
You'll have a million dollars in revenue because, you know, you have a great dental practice. Fantasy. Okay, we want to write something off of this. Well, why don't we just buy a bunch of equipment as part of our business, and you know, I'm not a tax expert, okay? But let 's say I say, " I have a million dollars in operating income in my dental business," and this other part of my business is now going to be leasing Teslas.
And I'm going to buy a million dollars worth of cybercabs, I guess, and that will be a subscription to FSD, so it will be without full autonomous driving. You have to add inflation to the price of a $25,000 car, okay? Everyone wants a car for $25,000, but let's be realistic, we need to add about 30 % inflation to this.
And, honestly , it's still the same $25,000 car that Elon promised. I don't want this to sound like an excuse. I just think it's reasonable. So that's $32,500. Divide by 32,500. I'm going to go and buy 30 robotaxi. Boom. I just instantly wrote off what would otherwise have been 500k in taxes. I just paid zero taxes.
And then you also take these Teslas on credit, getting even more tax benefits, or just pay half, as you wish. Tesla benefits from financing. Tesla gets a pricing advantage because it gives people huge tax breaks. Tesla benefits from not having to deal with washing and charging. Tesla benefits from selling the car immediately.
And getting a big profit up front, what exactly is Tesla good at? In mass production, creative methods are used to reduce costs. That's what the Cybertruck is. You shouldn't judge this company by how much they can earn from a low-margin transportation business that will become massive. Oh, if only they could make a dollar a mile.
They won't make a dollar per mile. They will print money, taking advantage of tax breaks that give them power over prices, allowing them to sell cars even more expensively. Maybe they'll sell them for 40 and get 30, 40, 35% gross profit. Who cares? Plus 99 % margin on FSD subscription for robotaxis.
That's where the real money is. They are the only ones who still have it . We think, “Oh, Nvidia has the Thor platform. They are close! Dude, they've been talking about this for, I do n't know how long, at least 4 years. I still only see adaptive cruise control in new rental cars. This is the maximum I see in Europe or America—this is adaptive cruise control.
Maybe I'm missing something, but Tesla is so far ahead it's just crazy. That's why they're targeting fleets. That's why they have fleet registration. That's why their connector is a DC connector. And then Tesla can take those profits and invest them in Optimus robots. I think this is a real strategy for this company.
Now, according to current estimates, the company is quite expensive. If we look at the PEG ratio for Tesla right now, it is unfortunately high, and I'm not here to tell you that the stock has fallen and is worth a penny. Currently, based on expected earnings , they trade at a PEG ratio of around five.
Okay, I can buy stocks in AI and cybersecurity companies with a PEG of five right now. And, you know, maybe that has already played a role. But the point is, there's a lot of optimism around Tesla about charging per mile, Optimus, or something else. I don't know when my prediction will come true, how quickly they will be able to enter production.
We currently have about 125,000 vehicles that we can produce in the Cybertruck format. With the “unboxed” strategy, we don’t yet know what the margins will be for this. But I wouldn't be surprised if in five years, or, I don't know, at the end of the decade, maybe, okay? Maybe by the end of the decade they will have a boom in robotaxi sales.
And now you're not really concerned with revenue per mile of robotaxi, but you come to my numbers and say, " Kevin, it all comes back to car production, the number of cars we can sell." Only instead of a margin of 18%, we will raise the entire fleet to 30%, because let's assume that we can sell these cybercabs to a business that can write them off with a margin of 35%, which on average with other businesses that currently give 18%, will probably take us to 22% or something like that.
And so now we can actually manipulate these target prices. So now we have these targets for the end of 2030 , which are 4-year target prices. Honestly, it's been about 3.5 years now. 3.5- year target price of 605. That includes, uh, Tesla bot revenue. This may be too optimistic. You know what, let me just get the Tesla bot out of here, okay?
Because I want to be conservative. We'll add it back in a moment. We are going to set the Tesla bot's score to zero. And operating profit from semi-trucks is up 3.5. You know what, let's be strict. Let's just set that to zero too. Okay, we'll come back to this. We will add them back. So if I set these numbers to zero, I still get $542 at 4 million cars.
Okay, that's still twice as many cars as we sell now. But now we're going to do this : we're going to take this revenue from FSD. Where did we get it from ? Sales, leasing, services, energy, operating profit from FSD subscriptions. We're going to add another billion dollars to FSD subscriptions right here because you're taking more from fleets, because they can write it off.
Remember, business charges more to business , okay? It's very simple. Operating profit , now I will change this to sales to 30% on average. And I just want you to see how it changes, okay? Simply by adding a billion to high-margin FSD, we raise the main revenue item to 30%. Keep in mind, I intentionally set the Optimus and Semi truck metrics to zero .
And I didn't even calculate it in advance. I just feel like it's going to be massive because it's this revenue that drives the business. Oh, 775. My God. You see, this is the level of profitability I like. Now, what does this require? This requires EPS of $11.48. This is 10 times more than now. Obviously, the markets don't expect, analysts don't expect Tesla to grow its earnings per share 10 times right now.
I'll tell you what the markets expect. And this is definitely not a 10- fold increase. So, who knows? You know , maybe I'm, well, let's say, wrong in my assessments. And I don't think that this catalyst is going to appear anytime soon . There could be a whole bunch of other meaningless factors. You know, people can get nervous before or after midterm elections.
Or, you know, maybe the Fed will make a mistake and start raising rates sharply. I do n't know. Stupid things can happen. Tesla is sensitive to interest rates. So if they raise the stakes, you know, that's going to be bad. Well, $1.66 is the current Wall Street forecast. We have 34.7 plus 40.7 plus 63.4 plus 47.6—that's a 186% increase.
That's almost three times more. Good. So, the average growth rate is about 46%. Actually, by the end of 2030 it's coming out to about Oh, that's what I did. Actually, closer to 4.5 years, because I'm counting until the end of 2030. Um, so it's actually closer to 4.25. That's it. So, they have EPS at $7.58.
I have $11.48. So, you know, I'm still a little ahead . 11.48 divided by, uh, what is this? 7.58. This is a 50% difference. I may only be a year and a half ahead of schedule. My schedule is probably only a year and a half ahead. So, even if I was a year and a half too early , what's the point ? If I have to set it at 5.75, that's still a good return on investment, 14.8%, right?
And you all know that I'm a fan of reinvesting profits from one part of the business into another. Uh, after all, that's why we named our company Reinvest, right? People always ask: well, what do you reinvest? What is Reinvest? This is House Hack. We just renamed it Reinvest because we opened a software department, we now have a team of, I don't know, 10 developers, and we are actively working on AI in real estate, changing something that no one has done before .
I'm not trying to "sell" this to you. I just want to say that the revenues from software, subscriptions to this AI, etc., will simply be reinvested in real estate, that is, in our core business. And I think what they're actually going to do with the robo-taxi is, the money that they make from selling these vehicles , these cybercabs, they're going to redirect into the Optimus program.
18% transition to regret. Now I believe that the Optimus program is a game for the 2035–2040 perspective . Of course? If the production of Cybercabs reaches 2 million units by 2030, you will have the capital and cash flow, a little bit, to reinvest in Optimus . And then, you know, we'll deal with the little hand and the servos for the hands.
You know, by then we'll have figured it all out. In any case, here's my opinion. Honestly, you know, between us, it might have been nice if Tesla had dropped a little more and we would have gotten a better entry point. But even at the current level of $350, you know, if we're right about the strategy with cyber, there's something to .
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