저자: Daniel미상 · 외국인
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첫 줄 결론: 코스트코는 품질은 최상이나 현재 밸류에이션(PER 약 35~40배)이 성장 기대를 이미 반영해 향후 수익률은 제한적이라는 판단. 품질 측면: 멤버십 수수료 기반 구독형 사업모델, 저마진(영업이익률 약 3%, 매출 약 2,420억 달러, 영업이익 약 80억 달러)이며 이익의 절반 이상이 멤버십 수수료(약 46억 달러)에서 발생. 직원 임금·복지로 낮은 이직률, 자체 브랜드 커클랜드의 품질·가격 경쟁력 언급. 재무 측면: 최근 2년간 매출 460억 달러 증가에도 순 재고투자는 거의 없다고 설명. 매입채무 지급 시점 구조 덕분이라는 설명. 멍거 관점: 멍거는 코스트코 품질을 높이 평가하지만 훌륭한 기업을 저렴할 때 사는 것이 원칙이며, 현재 가격에서 매수는 '괜찮을 수도 있으나 어려워지고 있다'는 취지로 언급. 진행자는 품질과 가치를 함께 봐야 한다고 강조. 밸류에이션: 과거 PER 17~25배 수준 대비 현재 약 35~40배(FCF 기준 약 35배). 5~10% 성장 기업에 비싼 가격이라고 판단. 시나리오 분석: AI 티커챗 예측 인용. 최선 시나리오(연평균 매출 성장 약 13%, 마진 3.6%, 멀티플 35배)에서도 상승여력 100% 미만, 그 이하면 사실상 본전 수준. 배당·자사주 등 현금수익률 2~3% 정도 가능. 전망: 전반적으로 미국 주식에 매력적인 종목이 많지 않다는 판단. 코스트코는 '언랭' 품질이나 현재가는 기대수익이 낮다는 결론. 리스크: 밸류에이션 압축 시 2년간 주가가 횡보한 전례가 있으며, 높은 기대치가 이미 가격에 반영되어 실적이 기대에 못 미치면 하락 가능.
다듬은 글
just shy of his 100th birthday Charlie Munger just did his very first podcast interview with the acquired podcast it is a great interview and it comes across that Charlie Munger is just absolutely in love with Costco it's not hard to see why I mean since he's been a director of Costco since 1997 the stock is up over 6, 300% but that's just the financial gain that you've seen in the stock since and over that multi- deade perspective there's a lot of qualitative reasons why so if I want to get a quick understanding of well what makes it a quality business I go to AI ticker chat leveraging artificial intelligence to analyze the 10K let's click on the annual report ask what makes Costco and exceptional business within a few seconds it gives you an answer it's Unique business model talking about the membership warehouse fixed fee sort of subscription business model it's highquality products at low prices we'll talk more about that in just a second focusing on customer service talking about competitive wages and excellent benefits where they have lower employee turnover be because people just love their jobs they love getting paid above average salaries getting the responsibilities and thus having less employee turnover saying look this is great I'm being paid fairly and then also their private label Kirkland brand is known for high quality um at fair or below average prices below the national Brands and so this is just you know there's a lot of different reasons why people love why consumers love it and why investors love it as well when you're looking at the underlying financials it jumps out as well you know you look at last year Costco had around $8 billion in operating profit on 242 billion in sales so razor thin profit margins around 3% profit margins over half of which comes from these membership fees which is around 4.6 billion so think about it is over half their business is effectively this recurring Revenue you know business whereas the other half comes from the very small markup that you actually get on the merchandise where they show net sales of around 237 billion so that's the merchandise inventory that they're selling with merchandise cost of around 213 billion so you're talking about a markup in terms of their sales of only around 12% on average now it might skew a little bit higher than that when you factor in that there are some things that are probably even below that that are lost leaders or that they're just sort of passing it through maybe like you know gas gasoline sales and things like that so overall you're talking about a markup that's only 10 to 20% above Costco's you know wholesale cost perspective so you're you're looking at this and this is the reason why they win why consumers keep going back is that no one else has this type of Razor thin margin model that they can operate and continue to take share year after year you know where as they're growing and you know Munger elaborated in this podcast you know talking about some of the qualitative elements the quality that makes this company so exceptional and he talks about you know one aspect is wide parking you know saying hey you know the you you need to recognize you're talking about management that wanted to look for Quality locations where there are rich people that want to find compelling bargains they want to save money and they also don't want to have the hassle of like oh my goodness I can't find a parking spot and sometimes it is crazy at Costco where there's so many people there but they purposely don't you know cut out on the parking spaces they purposely set at a minimum distance something like 10 feet as opposed to 8 feet or other parking lots will squeeze it tight so it's it's quality throughout the whole change throughout the whole experience where you're getting a parking spot where you you can actually fit and you know bring your cart and you know easily load your car up with items and then you're going to follow and get quality items that you can you know you get your buck 50 hot dog or you know buying favorable Goods at a very low markup so it's quality across the whole range of experience and you look at the financials and this is you know also munger's key concept is that it's it the these are exceptional financials and here's a key riddle for you to think about before I give the the answer in the next you know five seconds is in the last two years sales for Costco have increased by 46 billion how much has Costco had to invest net of inventory how much do you think because typically when you're thinking of a business and you're thinking about the return on invested Capital you're getting okay well how much do I actually need to go into this business to expand it now I'm not going to talk about you know the billions of dollars that they're investing into new stores you know that's clearly investment that they need to make but how much needs to get invested net into inventory to expand by $46 billion and the answer is nearly zero when you look at you know what they've effectively invested in over the last few years and you can see that you know and this is by looking at the cash flow statement and for those that are interested in learning more how to you know read cash flow statements or you know think about valuing businesses I do offer you know courses you can see below and you could see just it's nearly zero over the last few years in terms of the amount of money that's being invested when you're looking at inventories and accounts payable it really is incredible at what's been done over the last few years and and how this business operates uh so the question is where does Costco go from here premium annual subscribers so when you think about Costco and you might still be wondering wait a second Daniel how is it that the the inventory issue that I just brought up like how come it's so close to zero when they're able to expand so much well it's all based on the timing of paying your vendors so Costco has such a relationship where they're saying hey we we will pay you after we effectively get make the sale on it and so that timing of which is the reason why you haven't seen this huge investment in inventory in terms of the actual cash despite their sales growing significantly over time but in terms of thinking about where does Costco go from here you know we've covered a lot of the quality you've seen the financials then the question is well is now the time to buy is now is a compelling time and he added you know from this podcast he goes the whole trick is to get them and he's talking about exceptional companies on the few rare occasions when they're really cheap but buying Costco at its current price it may work out all right but it's getting hard and it's not you know it's not hard to disagree with him you know he he's fundamentally talking about this concept that every time you look at a stock and I see people make this mistake over and over again they fall in love with the quality they fall in love with one aspect of a business oh I love this CEO oh I love this you know the business I love the recurring nature of their business I love the free cash flow the quality what have you you're focusing on the fundamentals which is important that's that's the focus of my channel I'm trying to find exceptional unrivaled businesses and I think Costco does go into that unrivaled camp you know there there're very very very few businesses that are of their caliber you got the quality but toer point you also need to factor in value and so for everyone that goes rah rah I'm going to buy more Costco are you actually thinking about the valuation because to monger's point Val you could have great fundamentals you can have great growth but if it's offset by let's say compressing valuation over time you could see the stock go nowhere as it has recently over the last two years or so and more to on the point of valuation look look at where it currently trades and this is price to earnings multiple for Costco you could see historically you know before the zero interest rate policy of the last let's say de decade you know you could see a trade at a teens valuation at one point during the great financial crisis was trading at a low teens multiple but for a while it was easily trading from let's say 17 times uh you know 20 times 25 times you know historically you could have seen it now it's trading closer to 35 40 times closer to 35 on a free cash flow basis 40 times on an earnings this is not cheap this is not cheap for a company that's growing let's say 5 10% a year it's quality everyone knows its quality the problem is that the valuation is baking it in it's baking in continued strong growth in the years ahead so how you know how do you perform over time well you know even Charlie Munger with the Daily Journal which he oversees it's not like he bought Costco for it he's bought you know a couple of banks like Wells Fargo Bank of America Alibaba US Bank so you know really he's he himself isn't putting Capital more Capital to work in Costco when I check in with AI ticker chat which now covers all us companies above $300 million market cap using their AI predict feature so to try to get you know an assessment of where's the stock go in the years ahead and this gives a range thinking about what's the sales growth what's the operating margins what's the multiple in the years ahead and this is very much aligned with how I would personally think about this you know which is that in a best case scenario where you're growing faster than you've been growing for most years so on average let's say 13 % over the next 5 years and you have record margins of 3.6% and you have a near record multiple of 35 times then you have less than 100% upside whereas if you have anything less than that then you're really talking about close to break even over the next few years you know maybe a little bit better because the cash flow is actually going to go to you as a shareholder so you get a couple percent you know maybe 2 3% you know in terms of a cash yield be a BuyBacks and dividends that you could get but overall not super compelling return and I think this gets back to to monger's key point which is that you know you need to focus on Quality quality is super important but you also need to factor in value you need to weigh both of those elements and it's not like it's super cheap right now and I think this is a point about us equities in general is that there aren't a lot of things that are super compelling right now you can find some things off the beaten path where you go wow that's a weird you know here's a Canadian pharmaceutical trading at 10 times free cash flow here's a Brazilian payment company growing at 30% trading at 12 times earning so you can find these things I personally call out these sort of obscure you know companies that I'm personally buying to my subscribers at unrival investing.com but look everyone's going to have their own different type of investment Journey that that that you need to follow I I saved this channel for covering the things you know unrival investing YouTube channel for covering the ideas that people are broadly interested in like Costco that's a you know name that people often ask about or it's a you know a business that a lot of people shop at and are aware of um but it's so important to balance that quality versus value Dynamic and you know here you're you you really got that rich value really got a lot of quality and it's it's going to be tough you know as as Charlie Munger alluded to I hope this video has been helpful for you if so please make a point of hitting that Thumbs Up Hit That subscribe button you've been watching unrivaled investing
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