저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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결론: 미국 금리 인상 사이클은 정점에 가까우며, 신흥국 특히 인도에 대해 낙관적이다. 인플레이션: 통화량 증가율이 크게 둔화되어 인플레이션은 완화될 것으로 봄. 다만 이스라엘·우크라이나 전쟁과 미국 국방비 확대가 변수. 금리 및 시장: 고금리에도 전반적으로 낙관적이나 미국 시장이 크게 오를 것이라고는 보지 않음. 연준 금리 인상에 따라 일본 등 각국도 금리를 올려야 하는 상황. 방산: 우크라이나·이스라엘·태평양 지역 수요로 방산주가 승자. 미국 경기 호조의 일부 원인으로 지목. 인도: 중국 탈출(온쇼어링)과 정치·안보 요인으로 인도가 자연스러운 수혜국. 14억 인구와 폭스콘 세무조사를 근거로 애플 등의 생산기지 이전 가능성 언급. 모디 정부는 방향이 맞다고 평가하나 언론 자유 우려는 존재. 민주주의와 정치 논쟁은 활발하다고 봄. 엔화: 일본은 매우 저금리를 유지하고 있어 엔화가 200까지 약세로 갈 수 있다고 경고. 일본은 엔화 방어를 위해 금리를 올리거나 엔화를 지지해야 한다고 봄. 이는 미 연준 정책의 글로벌 파급 사례. 리스크: 전쟁에 따른 국방비 지출이 인플레이션을 재가속시킬 수 있음. 금리 상승 압력은 여전히 중요한 변수.
다듬은 글
Global markets are prepare for the fed's interest rate decision persistent inflation war in the Middle East has investors on edge let's bring in Mark movius veteran investor and a founding partner of Mobius uh Capital partners he spans the globe uh looking for opportunities and and but you do uh have feelings about what goes on in this country as well Mark and and I want to get we we tease that you're going to talk about India and how bullish you are on India but you think just bringing it home for a second you think that interest rates of the cycle the the cycle of higher interest rates is peing right now in the United States I think so I think if you look at the inflation situation uh we're probably at the at the peak uh and if you look you know I look at the not only the money supply which is tapering down but I look at the growth of money supply and you can see it's come down dramatically so that means inflation will be uh easing of course the big provisor of that is with all that's going on with Israel with Ukraine with pumping up the defense spending in the US that may put a monkey wrench into this whole situation but generally speaking I do believe that we're at the peak and coming down now we we've seen in recent days and and I don't know whether we think about it and and we all would like to spend more on on uh buns uh guns I'm sorry we'd rather spend more on butter than guns but the world is is frightening and then you look at what a shell or or ammunition or whatever you want to talk about for uh for defense it takes a long time and a lot of of effort and labor and materials to do that and we need probably to do that and we can't just all of a sudden uh you know decide on a weekend to do that I mean it takes a while right and we're running out with two Wars right well you know it's interesting you know I tell people in these kinds of situations their winers in losers if you look at the defense stocks in America they're the winners in this situation because the demand for all kinds of military equipment is coming from Ukraine coming from Israel and of course they're ramping up in the Pacific as well so uh probably one of the reasons why the US economy is doing so well is that kind of spending that's taking place so it's going to be interesting to see how this moves forward but I'm generally pretty bullish despite the high interest rates I'm not saying the US market will go up a lot but interest rates will certainly uh be a factor that we have to look forward to um and there's a kind of a great sucking sound in some of these markets because with fed rates going up everybody has to follow if you look at Japan they're G to have to follow with higher rates and in almost every country around the world uh they can't allow their currency to be devalued valued to such an extent so they have to raise rates in line with the US is it is it too simplistic to say that India is is just going to be a major beneficiary of a even if it's just a a change in uh the second derivative for for what happens with our trade with China I mean there's definitely there's onshoring happening there there's a political pressure there security issues all these things make China maybe uh less attractive and and I would think that India with 1.4 billion people and the most populous nation on Earth that they would be a natural beneficiary is that is that what you're thinking definitely uh I'm speaking to you here from Mumbai in India and I can feel the incredible optimism that you have here um and I think now with h by the way I don't know you know about foxcon the new investigations in China uh about tax evasion for fcon which is the big supplier for Apple uh this has got to worry the Apple people and they've got to start thinking about expanding in India because they need another big Supply base so I think yes India is benefiting from these developments there are uh it it's a complicated uh country in terms of of uh the democracy and and uh various crosscurrents that you see um with with Modi uh but but net net you think there are positive things uh in terms of bureaucracies and and uh whether it's corruption or whatever happens in in countries he's moving in the right direction I mean there have been worries about freedom of the press and and whether it's truly a uh going to be able to sustain itself as a vibrant western style economy it is right so definitely I mean you just have to turn on the TV set about 20 channels many in different languages and they're free and open dialogue you know very luciferous dialogues going on it's just incredible I just came back from rajastan I was in Udi poor and again it's you know a completely different environment than what you have here in Mumbai I'll go down south you'll have a different culture I don't call it India I call it the United States of India because they're so varied in the way they are in each of these states you know states rights are very important here in India but the great thing is the incredible culture and creativity that you have here U I highly recommend if you want to see this vibrant culture look at some of the Bollywood movies but particularly uh some of the older historical movies it's quite interesting to see what's happened in the past here very very interesting Mark can I ask you very quickly um what what you make of Japan's move to it looks like loosen up the yield curve control it wasn't a full-on go ahead have added type of message what how do you interpret it well as usual the Japanese are very cautious and slow but uh clearly with the Yen where it is now they have to do something we could see the Yen going to 200 if they keep on with this very low interest rate so again this is an example of where the US uh fed policy is having a global impact the Japanese will have to raise interest rates in order to hold the end at this level 150 or maybe uh bring it down a little bit you know strengthen it a little bit but otherwise the end is going to be in real trouble
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