저자: Kevin · 외국인
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Sonder 파산·Ritz Carlton 개발사 파산 등 기업 부실 사례를 들며 부채 위기와 경기침체를 경고. 현재 경제를 '완만한 출혈(slow bleed)'로 진단하고, 역모기지 급증을 유동성 악화 신호로 제시. 주식시장 조정 시 하락을 예상하나 모기지 대출업체는 위기 때 수혜를 볼 수 있다고 언급. 개별 종목 매수·매도 직접 권유는 없음.
다듬은 글
about guests left homeless as rental company Saunder abruptly goes out of business. Deal with hotel terminated. They treated us so poorly. You kn was just reading about a Ritz Carlton developer uh going bankrupt and I pulled up the lawsuit for it and I want to see what happened with this uh on Marriott here.
But we're seeing this happen more and more. Look at this. $2 billion Ritz Carlton Paradise Valley developer files for bankruptcy. So, I actually pulled up their lawsuit and uh started going through it. Here it is, the bankruptcy petition. And what I thought was really remarkable about it as as I was reading through it is they basically had this construction financing that uh they got arranged from this group called Madison Capital LLC.
and Madison Capital LLC is like, "Hey, we're done funding your construction project." And the Ritz Carlton developer is like, "Bro, we're not done building it yet." And they're like, "Sorry, you're rugged. We're not paying an extra dime." And so now you've got the developer for this Ritz Carlton facility going to the bankruptcy court going, "Bro, we need millions of dollars so we can keep like servicing our debt.
We have $644 million of debt." This is always how it happens, dude. debt kills you. Right here it is. Madison claimed that their obligations had been fully funded and no funds remain to complete construction. So all of a sudden, that's the construction loan agreement. All of a sudden, this this lender bankrupts basically this business who's trying to build a Ritz Carlton.
And you know what blows my mind is they are literally begging the court right now for $6 million. And you know what those $6 million are for? Think about this for a moment. What would you guess the $6 million are for? They're asking for $30 million of debtor and possession financing, but they want six advanced right away.
You can see this right here. So, uh, this is where they're asking for $30 million. And right here, up to $30 million of a total commitment in a, uh, DIP loan, debtor in possession loan. They want $6 million immediately. Okay. I want you to ask yourself, what do you think they want the $6 million for?
This is going to piss you off. Okay, you will you will absolutely punch the air when you hear this. Okay, they're like, "We need $6 million." When I first saw they need $6 million, I'm like, "Great. You're going to pay your vendors. You're going to pay your drywallers. You get the construction project going, pay some interest money, right?
Like, keep keep the construction going, right, folks? The $6 million, you want to know what it's going to go to?" The debtors anticipate that the total costs of legal assistance required within the first 7 weeks will be $6.5 million. In other words, we want you to approve us borrowing an extra $6 million just so we can pay for structuring our bankruptcy because the attorneys are taking the first $6.5 million.
Like, dude, this is insane, man. Like this this is what the this this is like so recessionary. I hate to say it, but like a Ritz Carlton developer $644 million in debt. And then all of a sudden they get rugpulled because one of the lenders is like, "Sorry, bro. We're Madison Capital LLC. We don't believe in you anymore because we got nervous or private equity is tightening or whatever.
We're going to rug pull you." Then they're like, "Crap, now we got to file for bankruptcy. before we even do anything, we're going to have to raise $6 million just to pay for attorneys. You know, this comes as, you know, now Max is so nice and donates to the live stream here and says, "Cavet, check out what happened with SE." And this is what we opened with.
Marriott guests left homeless as rental company Sonder abruptly goes out of business. I I just want to be clear here. I am nervous, okay? I I am I am not happy about where the economy is right now. I really think people are going to get absolutely wrecked with debt. I mean, I and I hear it already. I'm already hearing of people like, "Dude, I got a six-figure margin call." And I'm like, "Have you not listened to like one Meet Kevin video for the last year?" You know, I know it's been sexy to be on margin since liberation day, but dude, like you got to pay the bill at some point.
You said some trailing stops, man. Holy smokes, dude. I don't like debt right now at all. Hotel guests around the world were left homeless when they were evicted with only hours of notice as Marriottbacked Sa filed for bankruptcy, creating a vacation nightmare. So, just so you know, Marriott only operates like 2% of their hotels.
Marriott is a brand. It is not actually a hotel operator. founded by Mormons, great brand, but Marriott doesn't operate this stuff. Marriott is just sort of like, hey, if you follow our rules, we'll let you use our brand name and our app, Bonvoy, you know, all this kind of crap, whatever. But it's not actually uh a a hotel operator.
And and I think we usually say, "Oh, I like Marriott Hotels." You just like the brand, but they're not the ones running it. You have these individual investing companies that end up operating these businesses and those end up being the ones that when they go bankrupt, you know, Marriott just washes their hands of it.
They're like, "Oh, that's not our problem. You know, we didn't go bankrupt. That's just some random brand." But it's a pisser because the people who are, you know, staying at these facilities, they don't know. Of course not. Most people don't know that about Marriott. Uh, which I mean, now you know, but look at this.
This was the filing from this business. Sonder Holdings to complete immediate windown operations. Okay, so dude, they're liquidating. Holy smokes. So this the one that I just talked about with uh the Ritz Carlton facility, you know, the developer going bankrupt. They filed, I think it was chapter 13 or 11, I can't remember which one it was, but they filed a reorganization to try to get by time to kind of keep the project going.
Saunders's like, "Peace. We're peacing out, homies. We're out. We're out. Uh, and take a look at this. Operates a global brand. Well, they don't really operate a brand. They might actually operate, in my opinion. I mean, maybe they do. Maybe they are a brand. Designforward apartments. Well, what the hell is a designforward apartment?
Uh, this is the other thing. People went crazy buying apartment buildings in like South Florida and Texas and stuff. This is why I think you got to be really careful of like the Cardone types or whatever. They bought in these overbuilt areas and now the the rents are plummeting on them and they're like look there's they're begging for liquidity to get out of these projects and I'm like man this is why you know we we love the single family game we just bought like 11 single families in an underbuilt area.
Uh and you know I I realize in in like a challenging time it's sort of like how could you buy 11 single families? Well, keep in mind we actually think we're providing housing because we buy, you know, nasty hoarder homes and uh and then fix them up to give housing to people. You know, we think we're helping housing.
But anyway, so what is this? Today announced it will complete winding down operations immediately and expects to initiate chapter 7 liquidation of its US business. The company intends to uh initiate insolveny proceedings with international countries in which it operates. Sa has faced severe financial constraints having to do with prolonged challenges in the integration of the company's systems and booking arrangements with Marriott.
Whoa. They're blaming Marriott. They're like, "Yo, your Bonvoy app sucks, bro." And um holy smokes. They're like literally trying to blame Marriott for their failure. Somebody here writes, "Paradise Valley and regular Scottsdale has been areas has been areas by the way. The new flex is in Cave Creek and North Scottsdale writes packet watchdog here." Huh, interesting.
Uh, so Tom from MySpace says, "Think he said house hack has no debt." Correct. House hack has no bank debt. You know, we have a small amount of outstanding bonds for people who are investing in the current round so they can get their 5% yield through conversion. You could read about that over at houseack.com.
But we don't have any bond debt uh or sorry any bank debt. We don't have any bank debt which uh is valuable. Uh and you know the debt we have is a fraction of the total assets we have. You know if we've got you know 80 90 somethingish million dollars in assets uh then you know we've got what 1920ish or whatever in in bonds.
So it's a fraction. Uh so uh take a look at this here. So Sunday November 9th Marriott International announced it's terminating its licensing. Oh, Marriott rug pulled on on s which means all of a sudden all of like any of their hope of using the Marriott brand is gone. The company is evaluating sale of the business to improve its financial condition.
Bro, it always comes down to debt. Company is engaged uh with financial parties but ultimately unable to execute a viable transaction for its business to obtain liquidity. That's what it is. This is always what happens, folks. This is how recessions happen is people are maxed out on debt and then all of a sudden they start pointing fingers.
You know, the Ritz Carlton guy goes, "Yo, it's Madison's fault. They lied and they didn't fully fund." And then Madison's like, "Yo, it's not our fault. It's private equity got more nervous." And then you start seeing who's swimming naked and all the cards start falling. And then all of a sudden Saunders like, "Crap, we don't have enough money to properly integrate the Marriott system." And then Marriott's like, "Well, you guys are creating a bad experience for the customers.
We're fielding the complaints. You guys are cut off." And then Saunders's like, "Bro, without your brand, we're screwed." And Marriott's like, "That's why you shouldn't have effed around." They're like, "We couldn't help it. We were so far in debt. We couldn't get the liquidity." And then Marriott goes, "That's your problem, not ours.
That's what happens in this kind of stuff." You know, and then people sue each others. We are devastated to reach a point where liquidation is the only path forward. Unfortunately, our integration with Marriott International was substantially delayed due to unexpected challenges in aligning our technology framework resulting in unanticipated costs as well as a sharp decline in revenue arising from Yep, there it is.
This is what I said. I told you it's the Bonvoy system. That's crazy. Uh integration or their participation with the Bonvoy reservation system. the board and I deeply are deeply grateful for our employees additional information to come. Wow, dude. That's wild to me. So, now this is where you're getting now the stories of people going to these these hotel chains and then all of a sudden, you know, they're literally getting kicked out.
Now, that that's next level. Honestly, that that sucks to be in a hotel POV trying to maintain my composure while dragging my luggage down the street after Marriott Hotels and Sa Hotel broke up with each other on a random Sunday and told us the GTFO of the hotel room we had booked for three nights in Montreal.
Oh my gosh, this is so dramatic, dude. Jeez. retired tech executive was in the middle of a 17-day stay in New York uh with his wife and daughter and newborn granddaughter in the Saun Battery Park apartments when the company abruptly went out of business. Wow. I mean, I guess if you were a tenant, you know, not a hotel tenant, but like an actual tenant in their apartments, you probably are going to be fine for a while until somebody buys them at a discount.
That's not great for apartment pricing. again. Uh, travel influencer claimed he became homeless because of the license. Uh, all right. Yep. Sad pictures. Whatever. Whatever. Whatever. Okay. So, I wonder if they have financials. They might not if they're a private company. Sa Holdings financial filings.
This is wild. No, they got an annual report. Do they go private or something? So, this is Let's see if they have quarterly results. Oh, here we go. SEC filing press release Q125. Why did they stop doing financials? So, this is their Q1 filing. Let's just look at their balance sheet. You know why we look at the balance sheet, right, boys and girls?
&; That's right. That's right. We're going to look Oh my lord. All right. Q1 Sonder Holdings. This is the stuff we do around here, okay? We try to figure out like what kind of canary in the coal mine was there. Uh because you know, just like my wife tells me, Kevin might be early, but at least he's right.
All right, let's see here. Uh so current assets. Let's see here. Total assets of Bill. Okay, so I've got cash here. Very little cash. I'm already noticing that they've got $23 million of cash, 43 million of restricted cash, which could be set aside for construction obligations. I've got current liabilities of taxes, acruds, payables, operating lease liabilities.
Look at this minus I'm going to take the deferred out. If I take the deferred out, I have $283 million. $283 mil of bills to pay and um cash available of $66 million. Q1 2025. The writing has been on the wall of this. By the way, like you can look at this when it comes to companies. This isn't what I did was not that hard.
I cut off their deferred revenues. Mind you, these deferred revenues, deferred revs will now become actual debt in bankruptcy that they have to pay back because they're not going to be able to fulfill that, right? But look at this. In the first quarter of 2025, they already had no money. They had 200.
Like, imagine having $283,000 of bills on your desk and you only have $66,000. Okay? You have $4 of short-term debt for every $1 of cash you have. You're screwed, man. Absolutely screwed. Somebody here writes, "I stayed at a Sa Hotel earlier this year in Cali. It was a cheaper of price, but the quality of the room was meh." Well, yeah.
Uh, so that's what happens. you know, the quality starts suffering and people get pissed off, but they don't have money. So, they probably didn't have money here to upkeep the rooms. What's their revenue? Their revenue is tanking. So, that's another problem. Look at this. You've got 118 mil versus 133 last year.
That's a 12% decline in revenue. Uh, so the writing was on the wall here. I mean, this is like Sears. They can't even operate the business profitably anymore. Look at this. They take the integration charge here. $1.5 million. Maybe y'all should have spent a little bit more on that. Geez, that actually seems cheap and they couldn't get it right.
What a surprise. But anyway, look at these losses. $56 million in losses. Let's look at the statement of cash flows. Statement of cash flow. We have 4 million of cash flow plus plant property equipment. They're burning another $56 million of cash flow. And this was in 3 months ending in Q1. And how are they taking on Oh, they actually did pay off a little bit of debt.
$250,000. I mean, that's nothing. Uh, so like this is scary. You know, this is just an example where the writing was on the wall for this company to go bankrupt. It's going it went now it's going bankrupt. It's literally liquidating. At the same time, you've got this Ritz Carlton developer going bankrupt.
Uh, and then, you know, Max is bringing this up as well, but other people have brought this up uh to me. I've seen this in the comments like 50 times. Uh I actually haven't addressed it yet, but the reverse mortgage explosion for seniors is is exploding. Uh which is crazy because rates are kind of high right now, but it's somewhat implies that people are out of freaking money.
So, you might not know what a reverse mortgage is. I'll give you a quick explanation of it. Okay, let's say you're sitting in a home that you own free and clear or maybe you have $100,000 of debt on it, whatever. but it's worth 500 grand. You could go to a lender and say, "Hey, I want to borrow up to 400 grand against this property.
Uh, and what I want you to do is charge me interest, but I want you to take that out of the equity that I have in the property, and I want you to give me money." So, you literally squeeze equity out of the property, and you make the the the your basically your net worth shrink every single month. And the way you do that usually just elderly people I think you have to be older than 65 to do this.
Uh the way you do that is to get a steady flow of cash flow for temp generally the rest of your life but it depends on how they actuate it out and and you know what what they end up calculating out could be 20 years whatever. And so you get a stable flow of cash flow. It's kind of like an annuity based on your house equity.
And uh you use that to live. And so if reverse mortgages are skyrocketing now at a time when interest rates are absolutely ridiculous, they're very very high right now. You have people that are broke going to reverse mortgages. Yeah. Look at this cashstrapped American seniors are turning to reverse mortgages as controversial type as the controversial type of loan that soared during the financial crisis uh you know as as people try to make ends meet start skyrocketing again.
Yeah. Sales of reverse mortgages have jumped this year as looming cuts to government benefits and persistent inflation have weighed on heavy older people. Reverse mortgage borrower is typically 62 or older, gets cash from the lender in exchange for equity in their home. Correct. Uh 80 is a typical borrower who turns to reverse mortgages.
The retiree lives in Washington state and receives $1,800 a month from government money. Then took out a reverse mortgage from Finance of America 11 months ago. He was confronted with a bill for new dental crowns that he struggled to afford and ended up using a reverse mortgage to pay for it. Yeah. It's like it's basically the the needle that broke the camel's back, you know, or the straw that broke the camel's back.
It's it's so many cuts and cuts and cuts. And that's actually why I believe that right now we're not in a soft landing environment. We're actually more like a slow bleed economy. So, what I mean by that is I think the economy that we're in right now is not a plane that's hey guys everything's fine on the plane and it's coming in for a landing.
Like if this is a plane analogy like there's a fire at the tail, okay? Like half of the plane is on fire and it's a miracle it's still flying. So, but that's a little graphic. So, I like the slow bleed analogy where it's like you're walking through the desert and you're parched and you're bleeding out by the legs and it's kind of like don't worry, everything's fine.
It's like you got that last minute optimism. Uh, and that's what the economy looks like. In fact, uh, there are two leaked images I want to show you. The first one is, uh, the face of this person walking through the desert. Uh it's this I don't need it. Uh and then the second uh is Jerome Powell and uh there's now leaked footage of Jerome Powell driving through the fog.
And um you know, apparently these are like Russians driving through the fog. And uh as the saying goes, it ends exactly how you would expect it to end. So, I'll just fast forward a minute here. And uh you've got him uh driving in the fog and then they don't realize there's a turn coming up and oh no.
Oh, oh, I I guess we messed up. Now, you know, obviously you don't want to wish an injury upon anyone, but like the analogy is there that's present that's like, you know, the Fed doesn't have job data, so they can't properly support us. You literally had Scott Besson this morning going now the economy is doing bad because of the Democrat shutdown.
It's like bro that wasn't the straw that pushed us over the edge man. Uh but whatever. And if anything, you know, many can make the argument that that uh Trump's stubbornness because he wanted to set up layoffs, uh, you know, the riffs that he gave, uh, vote the license to do the reductions in force contributed to wanting a shutdown, to weaponizing a shutdown, just somewhat backfired because people were very frustrated over this.
But these are problems. Uh, and so it's not a surprise that you're seeing more and more of these bankruptcies now. uh not only now Sa but the Ritz Carlton bankruptcy uh and this uptake in reverse mortgages. It's a scary scary time for for liquidity. And that's what we got to pay attention to is if people think that everybody's rich and everybody has money because, you know, we look at these these charts that are like, "Oh, hey guys, uh we've got um you know, all all this money sitting in money markets like everybody's rich.
Like imagine when all this money goes into the stock market." That's the thesis people have. But people forget that this cash is usually money that Microsoft or Nvidia has sitting around. These aren't normal everyday people and they're using a lot of it, yeah, to buy back their own stock. But is that going to help the traditional consumer, the everyday American?
Not in my opinion. I think the everyday Americans getting screwed right now. That's why you're seeing these bankruptcies at Ritz Carlton, Sa reverse mortgages skyrocketing. It's just a matter of time before rates actually come down and you end up having a refinance boom. And it's not going to be a refinance boom where people are refinancing their homes because they get to go invest.
People are going to start refinancing their homes out of desperation. That's what I'm really worried about. Now, I think everything will end up going down if there's some kind of market correction. But that's one of the reasons why I keep looking at like the mortgage lenders, for example, because I think the mortgage lenders, well, they'll go down if there's a crash, no doubt.
Uh they will have probably the greatest earnings from desperate people flocking to mortgage lenders to get any possible money that they can out of their homes. And you're already seeing some of that with these reverse mortgages. So, it's just it's a wild time. It's just a it's a really crappy crappy time. Uh uh you know that's that's my tak. .
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