저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이크론 주가 급락은 금리·유가·AI세 등 매크로 우려보다 기관의 이익실현·리밸런싱과 스톱로스 헌팅에 따른 건강한 조정으로 해석. 장중 708 저점 후 반등해 765.77 마감. 256GB DDR5 서버 모듈 샘플링(1감마 기반, 9200MT/s, 전력 40%↓)으로 기술 우위 강조. 삼성전자 노조 파업 임박은 DRAM 공급 차질과 마이크론·SK하이닉스 가격 협상력 상승 요인으로 제시. 20~30% 비중 축소 등 리밸런싱 전략 권고. 5/20 엔비디아 실적 및 마이크론 투자자의날 주목.
다듬은 글
Welcome back. Guys, today was a day that tested conviction and probably forced a lot of weak hands out of this market. Cuz if you looked at the headlines, you saw strong words like plunge, bloodbath, slide. But if you looked at the tape, particularly if you looked at the tape this afternoon, you saw something entirely different.
While the headlines screamed that Micron was sliding, the company was busy redefining the ceiling of AI performance by sampling their new module for AI workloads. And if you've been watching the channel all week, you know we've been tracking this perfect storm brewing in the memory sector. We've covered the Wall Street Journal article that discussed the institutional juggernauts and how it was pushing Micron towards the 800 level.
But today, the market threw us a curveball. Today wasn't a rejection. It's not a rejection of the thousand price thesis that we discussed on this channel. It was just a macro test. We are seeing a massive disconnect between the stock price and the actual engineering that's coming out of Boise. And if you're feeling the heat from today's red candles, stay tuned.
We're going to dive into the forensic charts today. I'm going to discuss the collapse of the Samsung talks, the new memory product that Micron is sampling today, and I'm going to discuss a specific strategy for all of you to protect your capital while staying while staying positioned for the next leg up.
That's what we're going to cover in today's video, . We've been growing in massive amounts. It's awesome to see. Let's keep the momentum going. If you find value in these videos, if you find value in the content I put out each and every day, make sure you hit subscribe to the channel. Let's dive in and just take a look at what the day showed us for today, first of all.
I've got to pull up a couple articles, and you can see on your screen, this from Barron's, stock market today, Nasdaq falls as chip fever breaks. Nas S&P 500 also fell while the Dow ticked higher. But clearly, you can see the the Nasdaq down here below fell to about midday right here and you can see it's about 1:00 Eastern time and had a bit of reversal.
We're going to discuss that later in this video as well. But we also saw just kind of red across the Nasdaq 100. If you look in that center, that's the the stocks that we discuss a lot in this channel. Obviously Micron right in the middle, Intel was down today as well, AMD down. We had a significant amount of companies down across the board today overall.
It wasn't an individual sector thing. It was across the board and many different companies that we follow on on this channel overall. So, if you're looking at the screen, if you were looking at your scorecard or your portfolio today, you probably need to take a breath because we saw red across Micron, SanDisk, Western Digital, Seagate.
We saw red across . And it definitely felt jarring. But it's critical to think but it's critical for us to distinguish between a change in company story and a change in the market mood. And today was definitely the latter. It was a change in the market mood. We had a violent recalibration that was driven by a number of factors.
And let me pull a few up for you cuz these are the ones that were circulating in the news today. You could say some were saying it was driven by the CPI report that came out the highest since 2023, hit 3.8% today. I heard also discussions around crude oil going back over 100 causing more inflationary concerns.
I even saw a wild story, you guys may have seen it as well, about an AI tax scare and how that was wiping out 300 billion and why the chip stocks were falling. This is all based on, you know, you could see it a citizen dividend that the policy makers in South Korea were floating overall. So, there's a lot of macro ideas out there and noise out there.
But honestly, I don't I don't think it was any of it. I think it was just the fact that there was a healthy reset in the sector. There was some healthy profit taking after these stocks have been in a massive run, you know, over the last few weeks. It's probably something each and every one of us thought was going to happen.
We were anticipating when it would happen. I know I've uh for a few in the comments I've been discussing about how do we take some of that money off the table, put it in your pocket, make sure you you uh realize some of those gains overall. But, I think it was a healthy move for the sector. I think it's what you see when you see massive movements like we've seen with the memory titans.
They've been on a huge run over the last few weeks. So, I don't think it was any one of those individual stories that I covered. I don't think it was the CPI. I don't definitely don't think it was the AI tax or the oil prices. I just think it was some healthy trimming that was done by the institutions.
It was just just because of the runs that these stocks have been on. You know, I think there was probably some rebalancing going on in a lot of portfolios. Kind of these stocks probably got a lot higher in weight than many of these institutional investors wanted to be, and we saw a little bit of re-calibration today.
But, I firmly still believe in this sector. I'm positive on this sector. I'm positive on the thousand price point for for Micron because it is backed by the fundamental three-stool, the three-legged stool for this for this company. Diversified product lines, we know how well it diversified across across advanced memory.
Rock-solid company health, and then an insatiable demand for AI right now in the marketplace. Everything in those three-legged stool remains intact regardless of what we saw today. Finally, for for some of you that may still be anxious, I just have to take us back to mid-March because sometimes I think we get a bit of price action amnesia.
And I want you to remember what happened after March 18th when we saw the massive sell-off with Micron. We This is This isn't as This is heavy of a sell-off we saw today. But, just remember that piece and the feeling that each and every one of us had. Maybe we felt a little anxious. Maybe we felt a little panicked at that timeframe as well, but remember the stock stabilized.
The whales react reaccumulated their position in Micron and it launched into a massive rally that we saw hit a new 52-week high of 818 yesterday. Today's action, it looks like it looks like a mirror image but it's nowhere close to the dips that we saw in that mid-March. So, just remember that piece.
That could that tested our conviction then. Is our conviction being tested again right now? We'll talk about it later in the video, but I do want to jump over and just show you a little bit of the candle chart and what we saw today for Micron overall because I think it tells just a huge story. So, let's jump over and you can see on your screen here.
Let me get rid of this box that always pops up. Oh, we got another one. Get rid of that, but you can see where we ended on Monday right here at the high and we did feel a gap down right out of the gate get-go. The whole sector was down for There's so many uh tech stocks that were down today across the board.
They just been on a massive run, but this is what we saw. A little bit of pop up. We actually reached the high of the day right here of 782, probably about 20 minutes after the market, and then we started to see this movement that we did. This kind of just the selling, the pressure, the the recalibrating within within the institutional portfolios, the profit taking, all the above.
But, I got to got to look at what happened around the 2:00 2:30 Eastern time because we had a massive reversal. And we see it just climb all the way back up again. So, we had this massive flush that took the stock down to about Where did it bottom out here? Right it bottomed out here at a low of 708 before it started to reversing and come back up again.
That's quite a bit low. That was the low of the day, but it didn't collapse. It didn't go below that. This is classic institutional stop-loss hunting. The And they drove the price down in the morning session as you can see clearly on the board. That move had all the characteristics of institutional stop hunt uh uh stop hunting.
But, look at that V-shape absorption that we saw of it. It was a massive volume spike underneath that you can see right down in here, kind of the massive volume spike that just started up the order order again. And the retail this while the retail was panicking probably at this moment when we got to 708, we started to see the institutions, the big whales, the buyers vacuuming up shares again in Micron.
The recovery began around 2:30 as I mentioned and it created a classic staircase pattern of higher lows. Micron finished at 765.77 today, but let's take a look at what it's doing in the after hours right now. And I don't know so right now it's still down low more. It's been bouncing. It was actually up to 772 right before I started recording this video.
So, now it's down to 763. We got to keep our eye on it. But, it is definitely moving around and it was in the green. We'll see what it does overnight as we get ready for Wednesday's opening bell across the board. But guys, that says a the story. I think that piece around that we saw with the we saw with the massive reversal in the afternoon gives me bull bullish hope for Micron as well.
It bottomed out, but it found support, got back up to 7 765. So, we've got a little ways to go to get back over that 800 psychological level, but nothing's changed with this company. Nothing from a fundamentals changed overall and that's what keeps my conviction with the stock overall. So, let's talk a little bit about the Samsung piece.
The supply side that we've been talking over the last couple days. There have been some news that came out of Seoul. Let me pull that up for you as well. It was was in a Reuters article. You can probably find it in everywhere else. But, Samsung Electronics, their South Korean labors, they failed to reach a pay deal.
Strike looms overall. So, this was the news that came out critical update overall. So, apparently there was a marathon 17-hour negotiation between Samsung and its labor union that collapsed at 3:00 a.m. local time. I think it was Wednesday morning ahead of them. So, 3:00 a.m. The union rejected the latest proposal, and they're standing firm that they want a demand of a fixed bonus pool of 15% of operating profit.
The general strike, it appears now, is very likely. Analysts estimate that an 18-day walkout could cause over 20 billion in losses and choke off, as I mentioned before, 4% of the global DRAM supply. This is a major catalyst or will be a major catalyst for Micron and SK Hynix. Plus, there are reports There are reports floating right now that I saw that major clients like Apple and HP are reportedly already inquiring about a contingency plans.
If Samsung's lines go dark, the pricing power for Western fabs don't just increase, it will skyrocket. Remember what I showed you yesterday? If they go dark during this 18 period 18 a period, it's not just the 18 days. Remember, it's going to take them 3 to 4 weeks to get the fabs back up and running.
So, it's going to be significantly beyond that 18-day period. And we know they're continuing to lose talent. We covered in yesterday's video around the brain drain that we're seeing that Samsung is seeing with a loss of talent they're seeing in the market just because the pay for SK Hynix and for other competitors are better.
So, this is a major story. No updates as of now. It does look like we're going to be seeing a bit of a strike in in the sector, and that's going to have an impact. So, let's also then shift gears cuz while this while the stock was sliding today, as I mentioned it in the beginning of the video, Micron they announced news that they're sampling a new product.
So, let me pull that up and we can talk about the importance of this product overall and what just the impact for the sector. But, you can see Micron samples 256 GB DDR5 server modules for AI workloads. Let's talk about some of the details this is a major competitive differentiator for Micron. It establishes them as a performance leader in the critical AI server market.
While competitors like SK Hynix, they achieve significant milestones by being the first to complete Intel certification for their 256 GB module earlier this year, but you got to remember their product was based on the older generation, the 10 nanometer class, the older generation of DRAM technology.
This one for Micron, it's it now leverages their proprietary leading edge 1 gamma node. This technological lead provides Micron with three specific competitive advantages. First, the 1 gamma module, it reaches speeds of 9200 mega transfers per second, which is more than 40% faster than the DDR5 modules currently in volume production.
Next, a single 256 GB module, it reduces operating power by over 40% compared to using 228 GB modules together. And this is a massive selling point for the hyperscale data centers operating under strict thermal and power constraints. And the final advantage for this new product is that Micron utilizes 3D stacking and through silicon vias in conjunction with their 1 gamma node to maximize memory capacity per server socket.
And this is a critical requirement for training large language models. By sampling this technology now, Micron is positioning itself as a primary supplier for next generation AI and high performance computing platforms. As the industry looks to shift and move towards its mid-2026 goal of having 1 gamma technology represent the majority of its bit mix.
And while the the market today was selling Micron based on those factors that I mentioned in the beginning, whether that's the CPU, whether that's the the crude oil, whether that's the AI tax, whether market was selling it off, Micron was in the middle of building a moat that interest rates can't touch.
This proves that Micron is widening its lead. This new product proves that Micron is widening its lead in the highest margin segment of the market. And for me, it instills massive confidence that the memory super cycle for Micron still has a massive runway left. And I want to go back to a strategy I mentioned in the beginning.
How do we preserve our capital? Because many of you on the channel have been with Micron from the beginning. You You bought it at the bottom, let's say. And I want to reinforce the fact that it is okay to be a balanced bull. That's my approach as well. That's my sentiment, my feeling overall. When a stock goes on a parabolic run, it's a change in your portfolio's risk profile.
A prudent strategy isn't to exit entirely, though. It's to rebalance back to your target weight. This is what we call shaving the peaks. By trimming 20-30% after a major rally, you are taking house money off the table and locking in realized gains. Put that money aside so you have cash ready for the next big opportunity.
This doesn't mean that you've lost faith in the company. It doesn't mean that you've lost faith in the thousand-dollar in the march to a thousand or the one trillion-dollar club that we've talked for Micron. It means that you're making your portfolio resilient and resilient enough to handle these type of shakeouts without breaking your conviction.
It's often in the holding of a great company that wealth is built. But it's in the rebalancing that will without wealth is preserved. Guys, the key takeaway for me today from the market is ignore the noise and trust the signals. We talk about it all the time on this channel. We saw a massive recovery in the afternoon session of the market today.
The health for Micron still remains great, even if the price is technically overvalued right now. Tomorrow, I'm going to be watching that 765 level. Can we hold it at the opening? Can we get back over the 772 that we saw in the after hours right now? If we can hold that in the opening, today was just another successful test of support.
And you have to remember, we have Applied Materials earnings on Thursday to anchor out the week. And next week we have the Super Bowl of earnings again with Nvidia on May 20th. And don't forget, Micron's investor day that they announced is also May 20th where their leadership team will be making comments to the public about their future, about other other aspects of the company overall.
And that is a it is a not miss. You can't miss that if you're a Micron investor. I'll be watching it. I'll be bringing the insights directly to you on this channel. But today I believe was a gift for us long-term conviction traders. So stay data-driven, follow the signals, block out the noise like we always say, and I'll see you on the next one.
Look forward to seeing that opening bell tomorrow. Take care, guys. Have a great night.
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