저자: 미상 · 외국인
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미국 반도체 관련 자산에 대한 단기 낙관론. 7/4 일본 히로시마 마이크론 93억달러 증설 착공과 삼성전자 2분기 잠정실적(영업이익 약 85조원 예상, 엔비디아 기록 경신 전망) 발표를 근거로 제시. SK하이닉스 ADR 상장(7/10) 자금 유입도 촉매로 언급. 아시아 시장 반등과 나스닥 선물 상승을 신호로 해석하며 섹터 보유 유지를 권고.
다듬은 글
Hey guys, welcome back. I hope you had a wonderful Fourth of July. I know I did celebrating with my family here in Tennessee. I'm here in Vanderbilt right now getting ready to head back to Texas tomorrow morning. But I wanted to drop this video just to continue the conversation that we are having on Friday.
Remember we talked about how the Asian markets had a significant rebound on Friday that we saw the Nikk225, we saw the KOSPI index all jump up. We saw SKH Heinix, Samsung as well as Kiia all recover on Friday and that was a great signal for us to keep our eye on here for the US market. So today, let's do that.
Those markets just opened up a few minutes ago. So at the end of this video, we're going to look at those together. Let's see if they continued that rebound effect across the board. But we are seeing a bit of an immediate domestic signal right now as well. But when we take a look at the NASDAQ futures, and if I pull that up on the screen, you can see right now the NASDAQ's f futures are up over 400 points.
Let me just refresh that to make sure. We're looking at about a 428 429 point jump about 1.45% for for the NASDAQ's futures right now. So that gives us a little bit of a domestic signal. We're seeing that move up and ind it's indicating that the institutional desks may have spent the weekend aggressively positioning themselves for a reversal that they think we'll see today.
In fact, let me show you something that gives me some some hope as well about a reversal. Just take a look at what we're seeing with Micron right now in the pre-market. You guys know we had a rough mark a rough uh close on Thursday, but look in the pre-market right now. We're seeing that reversal that we expected to see.
We're up by about 59 points. 6% right now. This is immediate kind of fresh uh a fresh jump or fresh indicator or signal that's hitting the tape right now for Mike Brown. So, let's keep our eyes on that as well. We'll give an update on the end of the video. But, there are a few massive signals that and catalysts that I wanted to cover on this video.
There's some concrete fundamental updates that came out of Japan and South Korea that have completely rewritten the macro outlook for the sector. Tonight, we're going to bypass some of the noise in the market. I want to focus on these three breaking structural developments. It's all around Micron's multi-billion dollar physical groundbreaking news that they just announced out of Japan.
I also want to talk about a historic corporate profit milestone that we may see on Tuesday that could when we could see Samsung outseat Nvidia as the highest earning company, a private company for any given quarter in the tech sector when they report their preliminary quarterly earnings on on Tuesday of this week.
And then finally, I want to take a look at the tape at the end of this video. Let's just see what's happening in those Asian indexes. Let's see what's happening in the KOSPI as well as the Nikk 225. Are they continuing to show us the signal that we may have a strong reversal here in the US markets when the opening bell rings tomorrow morning?
So, that's what I want to dive in and talk about today. Let's get started. But if you haven't done it already, guys, tank channel. I appreciate each and every one of you. We've seen massive growth with this channel, with our community over the last few videos. So, let's keep it going, guys. Let's continue to grow together.
Let's continue to learn together. And ultimately, let's continue to make some money together. So guys, let's get started on the video. Let's start with the absolute heaviest hitting news that broke this weekend. On July 4th, while we were all celebrating this country's 250th birthday party, Micron officially held its groundbreaking ceremony for a massive $9.3 billion expansion of its manufacturing facility in Hiroshima, Japan.
Let me pull up that article. , Micron breaks ground a 9.3 billion Japan expansion to boost AI memory overall. Let's walk through some of the details because when we look at the structural mechanics of this deal, this isn't just Micron acting alone. Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry has officially committed up to just over $3.1 billion in direct government subsidies to underwrite the capital costs of this project.
And when you factor in additional research and development backing, the Japanese government is covering nearly half the bill for this expansion, it's because this facility has one specific purpose, scaling the mass production of high bandwidth memory. So you need to ask yourself this logical question overall.
Does a global technology monopoly lay out $9 billion in hardware capex? And does a G20 superpower subsidize half of it if the AI cycle is peaking next month? Absolutely not. The memory companies build multi-billion dollar fabs only when they have ironclad multi-year visibility into structural supply deficits.
In fact, Micron's current order books are completely sold out through calendar year 2026 and into 2027 as well under multi-year under binding, excuse me, multi-year contracts. The physical world is telling you that demand is aggressively outstripping supply. It's continuing to aggressively outstrip supply overall.
So, that was a big story. But there's an even bigger one right now. that the physical groundbreaking in Japan isn't enough to convince you. Let's look at the institutional numbers heading into this week. The biggest forwardlooking story in the entire global tech sector is happening on Tuesday this week when Samsung's preliminary second quarter earnings release to the street.
Let's pull up that article. I want to walk through what we saw here in the sole economic daily because these results could be it could be record setting across the board. You see Samsung eyes global record on AI chip super cycle up to 99 trillion Juan preliminary earnings are due on July 7th when they should hit the street overall.
Let's walk through some of what we are expecting to see. You can see here second quarter preliminary uh operating profit is due on July 7th. Meet if it meets the market forecast of around 85 trillion Wong, the company will overtake Nvidia to rank first in quarterly operating profit among tech companies worldwide.
According to industry sources on Saturday, Samsung Electronics is expected to announce preliminary results with second quarter revenue in the 170 trillion Juan range and operating profit around 85 trillion W. Guys, if we go down further, you can see this represents an increase of about 30% in revenue and 49% in operating profit from the previous quarter, which had marked a record high for the company.
So that should show you some of the demand in the market, some of the pricing power that these membrane companies have right now, what Samsung is driving. This will absolutely be a massive catalyst for the sector this week on Tuesday. We're going to have a secondary catalyst at the end of the week on the 10th.
We're going to have some, in my opinion, we're going to have some strong kind of movement towards that catalyst. We're going to see some forwardlooking push in Micron as we get ready for that SKHEX ADR when it hits on Friday the 10th as well. that this is going to be an early catalyst for the sector in the first part of the week overall.
You can see as we go through here that Mertz Mertz Securities, they estimate that Samsung's electronic second quarter operating profit could be as high as 99.3 trillion W. If Samsung uh records a quarterly operating profit of 85 trillion Wong, as financial markets predict, it would set an unprecedented mark in global corporate history.
To date, the highest quarterly operating profit among private tech companies worldwide is 53.5 billion or 81.85 trillion one. And this is what Nvidia recorded in the first quarter of its fiscal 2027, which was February and April of this year. In second place is Apple, which posted operating profit of just just under 51 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, which was October of December of last year.
So if Samsung electronics second quarter if their results meet forecast it would surpass these companies to become the te become the tech the top tech company worldwide in quarterly operating profit. It would only be exceeded by Saudi Arabia's state-run oil firm Aramco which posted 86.5 billion. So guys, that is a massive story and coming out overall and I think just to put it in context as I mentioned the highest quarterly pro operating profit ever recorded by a private company was Nvidia which was 53.5 billion.
We are looking to see Samsung put up almost 56 billion in a quarter overall. If they hit that 85 trillion one mark on Tuesday, they will officially surpass Nvidia and Apple to rank first in quarterly operating profit among all tech companies in global history. Think about the absolute absurdity of that retail of that to the retail bearer narrative.
The crowd is is panic selling memory stocks because they think the cycle is over. They are completely blind to the fact that a memory giant is about to unseat Nvidia for the global corporate profit crown of all time. So that just shows you the pricing power and the demand that the trillion dollar club of Micron SKH and Samsung where they sit in the market right now, the power that they have in the market overall.
I think this will be a massive catalyst for the sector this week. right in the beginning and I said we're going to have a second catalyst in the second part of the week. So now let's talk about the second massive catalyst that'll be hitting the tape this week on July 10th because we know that SKHix will be listing their ADR in the NASDAQ on Friday of this week and it's going to force a violent re-evaluation across the entire sector.
SKHix is the world's second largest memory maker and they are Nvidia's primary HBM partner. So when they list their shares on the NASDAQ looking to raise an historic 29 billion offering, it is going to cause an absolute violent re-evaluation across the entire sector. In the short term, it's going to act as an absolute magnet for Wall Street Capital because right now hundreds of US investment funds and ETFs are legally banned from buying shares listed directly on the South Korean exchange.
On Friday, those floodgates will open. It'll allow trillions of American dollars to pour into the memory sector and buy SKH Heinix for the first time. And as McQuiry and Morgan Stanley noted over the weekend in some of their in some of their uh headlines of their reports, this listing is going to command a steep price premium.
SK Heinix's listing is going to command a steep price premium. When Wall Street fights over SKH Heinix on Friday and realizes that its forward PE is incredibly cheap, it creates a massive title that lifts all boats in the sector. Institutional analysts are forced to immediately look at Micron as well.
The only major US player in that elite 90% club with those three companies owning 90% of DRAM market overall. They'll realize that buying Micron around $1,000 a share is an absurd discount for that company. So I would say guys, watch for the institutional capital to frontr run this massive listing all week long and push Micron higher and higher throughout the week.
How do we execute on these signals before Wall Street opens tomorrow morning? that opening bell overall because amateur traders, they will look at that massive NASDAQ futures, those green candles or that 1 and a.5% opening that we saw earlier in this video, and they'll assume that we'll have guaranteed success tomorrow.
But on this channel, we don't chase green candles, and we don't blindly buy based on headlines. We let the global tape validate for us. We follow the signals and that validates what we see in the market overall. Because, you know, in my last video, I said there was four things I wanted to track. one, will SKH Heinix, will Samsung, will they continue to hold the gains they have on Friday?
Will Kioxia also hold the gains they have on Friday? And will the KOSBI index continue to outperform? So, I want to look at those signals right now before we go any further in the video. And let's just see what we're seeing in the market real time right now. So, as I pull that up and we walk through the KOSBI, we can see it is up about two and a half% right now.
So, it is looking pretty good. But if we look at the individual providers, we'll see skinex up about 2% as well. It is continuing not rallying as high as that we saw on Friday, but it's on top. I think Friday was about 10% 11% across the board. We're seeing about 2% and early trading action over there in South Korea.
And in Samsung, we're about 4 and a.5%. So, we know Samsung's that report that I went through with you earlier just showing the potential impact that they could drop on the street on the 7th and the revenue and the operating profit that they could demonstrate. It's probably driving some of the higher sentiment that we see right here with Samsung.
But they were up I think 8% on Friday about 4% right now moving in a nice direction. We see the KOSPI is up 2%. Let's take a look at the Nikk225. Nikk225 is relatively flat. If we look at Kioia over here on the right, let me pull that up. It looks like Kio is actually down 2%. So, a bit of a mixed signal that we're seeing across the board right now.
If I continue to jump over and look at the NASDAQ futures, let me refresh my screen here and what we can see in the NASDAQ futures, it's up a little less, about 1.13%. So, we need to keep our eye on that as well as we move forward. So, those are the signals that we wanted to we wanted to follow. We're seeing kind of mixed signals across the board.
Samsung SKH Highix are rallying after a really strong day on Friday. Kioxia is a bit down right now. We're seeing the KOSPI up. The NK225 was essentially flat. The NASDAQ one the NASDAQ 100 futures is up slightly over 1%. It's pulled back a little though since the beginning of this video in full honesty.
But so we have to keep our eye on those moving forward into the opening bell tomorrow. But remember that short-term algorithmic liquidations can they can manipulate stock price for days. But when we look at the hard stories that we saw in the beginning of this video, a $9.3 billion physical footprint that kind of a expansion of the fabs over there in Japan to build more HBN and we see these record shattering corporate corporate earnings that we may see drop on on the street on Tuesday of this week.
And of course, we're going to get that ADR at the end of the week as well. Guys, the straightforward, the takeaway for me here is straightforward. Do not let short-term panic shake you out of your core positions right before the most explosive hardware earning seasons of the cycle. The divergence between paper market liquidations and real world capital expenditures is giving us an incredibly rare window of mispricing.
As always, we are not going to guess our next move. We are going to let the dictate. We're going to let the data, excuse me, or the signals dictate it. We'll be tracking the global tape live. I will be tracking it in the Asian markets overnight just to see how it continues to evolve and I'll monitor how the institutional order flow reacts to these weekend updates.
But in general, I would say continue to stay disciplined, watch the metrics we broke down today, watch continue to look to see how these Asian companies, how they're trading as we head into the opening bell tomorrow. What signals will they give us that we could see overall for us? If I temp jump back and just take a look at Micron, we see Micron is still up about $60 almost 6 and a.5% right now.
So that's a nice signal going into the morning bell as well. So guys, stay disciplined. Make sure you continue to prepare before you make any executions at all. Don't let the the fear and anxiety shake you out of your core positions and your core holdings in this sector because we are getting ready for a massive couple of weeks. Thanks for tuning in. And I hope you enjoyed the video, guys.
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