저자: Kevin · 외국인
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마이크론 실적(6/24 발표) 앞두고 바론즈 기사 인용. 최근 12분기 실적 상회에도 7회 주가 하락, 시장 기대치 과열 우려. 옵션 내재변동성 103% 등 프리미엄 과열로 IV 크러시 가능성 지적. 실적 직후 단기 조정 가능하나 HBM 공급 부족·장기 계약으로 구조적 상승 지속 전망. 전략: 옵션 프리미엄 높을 때 추격 매수 자제, 현물 보유 또는 현금 대기, 장기 계약 코멘트 중시. 메모리 섹터 전반 동반 조정 시 저가 매수 기회로 봄.
다듬은 글
Hey guys, welcome back to the channel. First thing I have to say is a huge thank you. My video yesterday was actually the second highest performing video that we have ever had on the history of this channel. So, I appreciate all the engagement, all of the comments, just all of the support in general.
I was trying to get through all of the comments and looking at them and I would say they were amazing across the board. It was so great to see how each and every one of you are going to celebrate the gains that we've had in this sector. But, the other thing that jumped out to me, the number one comment that I received across that video was "What do we expect to see next week with Micron's earnings?" Like, "What is your guidance, Kevin, moving forward?
How should we play the earnings print next week?" So, I was going to wait to try to drop a video about this early next week, but given that this was the overwhelming number of responses and questions in last night's video, I figured why not just drop it now. Why not share some of my thoughts and perspective, particularly because we did see an article that was published this morning in Barron's that I think sets up it perfectly as well.
You know, we have I think each and every one of us know that we have a high-stakes fiscal third-quarter earnings print next week on on Wednesday, June 24th. There is a massive wave of anxiety. You can feel it in the market. I feel it in the commentary. Everybody just wondering what is going to happen with this stock.
So, when you see Barron's drop that article like they did this morning, and I'm going to review it in a moment, it is going to cause I my my concern was it's going to cause some anxiety for some of the members of this community. For all people that have either just bought into Micron or held it for a while, or just curious what should we do with this stock moving forward.
So, the biggest piece from that article that could give you anxiety is that Barron's called out the historical anomaly that we have seen with Micron. So, we all know that Micron, they have beat their earnings uh the expectations for the last 12 quarters. But, seven of those 12 quarters, despite beating those expectations, the stock has dropped off.
And so, that's what I want to dive into today. I want to take a look at that article. I want us to review that data directly. I want to expose and discuss some of the mechanical reasons behind this historical trend that we're seeing with Micron and that we've seen in the past with Micron's prints. I want to break down some of the staggering whisper numbers that are out there for Micron and what we should be looking for what we what we may see next week on Wednesday when they drop their print.
And I also want to review some real-time options data to help outline the playbook for each and every one of us how we should be playing this this earnings print next week. What are the options that we have overall? So let's jump in. Let's take a look at the data that hit Barron's earlier this morning.
We'll walk through it together and then we'll take a look at the rest of the the factors that I outline. And once again, guys, thanks for getting that video to the number two since this channel's been launched back in on January 5th. I just a huge thank you to each and every one of you. All right, so let's pull up the article that came out in Barron's this morning.
You guys may have seen it, but you can see the title is that Micron stock faces tough earnings test. What history says happens next week. And if you scroll down, there's a few things that I've highlighted. The first I'll just call out. First paragraph, I didn't highlight it, but I'll call it out anyways.
Micron's Micron is on a great stock run, but earnings next week could be an obstacle even if the memory chip maker delivers ahead of expectations. Micron will report its third quarter earnings at the close of market on Wednesday. We know that piece. Here's the kind of whisper numbers that I will talk about a little bit further, but we could see Micron's adjusted earnings are set to come in at just to under $21.
If you can compare that to where it was in the same period last year of a $1.71, you can see the amount of growth that this company has had. And the revenue is expected or that it's whispering to be just under 35.6 billion. And that's up from 9.3 billion same time last year. But look at the uh highlighted area we've seen underneath.
This is what they called out. This is what I was concerned was going to give some anxiety if any of the members of the community kind of read this is that even though Micron beats expectations, there's no guarantee that it's 817% stock rise that we've seen over the next 12 months will continue. At least not immediately.
Micron earnings have exceeded expectations for the past 12 quarters, but the stock has fallen seven times in the trading session immediately following the report according to the Dow Jones market data. It mentions that there's no strict correlation between the size of Micron's earnings beat and the guidance they give and the subsequent reaction.
In fact, the last earnings beat that Micron had and the guidance they gave last quarter was the biggest beat compared with its expectations in the past 2 years, yet the stock fell almost 4% the following trading session. But Mark but Barron's does call out and this is a big piece of the story right here at the end that Micron and several of its chip peers are what we call the Fab Four, the memory titans on this channel, remain undervalued considering the need for their hardware to power the AI servers.
So that was a a big kind of article and overall caught my eye. I don't know if it caught any of your eyes as well, but I think we have to ask ourselves, why does a company that beats expectations 12 quarters in a row drop 58% of the time after they print seven out of 12 times? And the answer for me is it's simple market mechanics.
It's sell the news, institutional profit taking and volatility crushing. Leading up to the earnings print, option market makers aggressively price in an implied move, inflating options premiums to historic levels. Large hedge funds use this massive liquidity window to dramatically hedge their portfolios, trimming their core positions to lock in massive gains before the print.
Look at what happened exactly 3 months ago. I want to go back and take us have us look at what happened in March because we had an absolute blowout print back on March 18th overall. And I want to show you the very next day how it dropped off 4%. Retail traders panicked in that moment. There was concerns that the AI infrastructure super cycle was over, but I also want to show you what happened after that day.
So, let's jump back to March. We'll take a little jump back in time and you can see I'm looking at a Micron chart here. It's on Yahoo Finance. I highlighted the or the earnings print here or the date right here in the red circle. It's corporate guidance as well as Let me get away from that. You can see uh there you go.
Corporate guidance, earnings. But, take a look at the stock. If you can see it below. If you look in the upper left-hand corner, you'll see on March 18th where it closed. So, the stock closed at 461.73. Now, we had a 4% drop the next day, but I really want to call out this slide that we saw in eight trading sessions.
So, that stock went from 461. And if you remember at that time frame, when we got to the end of March, which was March 30th, when it hit its nader down here, it actually got down to 321.80. You can see in the upper left-hand corner. Guys, that's over a 30% slide in eight trading days. Will we see that next week?
Will we see that massive amount of pullback overall? Not sure. I mean, we know we've seen it 58% of the time the next trading day there's a pullback despite the the earnings that Micron has. But, will we see a 30%? I'm not sure if we'll see it that aggressively, but just take a look after that 30%. After we hit the nader, look what happened then.
Look at this rise. Where we closed at 11 1133.99. That is a 252% return from that 321 level that we had at the end of March to where we find ourselves right now heading into the Q3 earnings print next week. So, guys, that's that big massive change there. I think that's the piece we have to remember.
Even if we see a slide, even if we see a pullback overall, just draw yourself back to the time what we saw here in March when the when the stock just went crazy overall. I mean, that 252% tells us everything. So, that next 60 days that we saw, just the fundamentals kicked in, the demand kicked in, and we just flushed out all of the weak hands, and frankly, we allowed the institutions to get these shares at such a discounted rate and drove it up completely overall.
Now, let's look at some of the mathematical hurdles that Wall Street has set up for Micron next Wednesday afternoon. I'm going to go back to that Barron's article, and I want to pull up just the piece right here that we talked about here. You can see that the forecasts are what they're set for incredible growth based by based on FactSet.
You can see Micron is projected to report a fiscal third-quarter revenue of 35.56 billion. That is an unbelievable, like, over 280% increase from its 9.3 billion that they reported in the same period last year. And the same when you look at the earnings per share, they're they're supposed to be forecast to come in at almost $21 a share as I mentioned.
Just compared to that $1.71 we saw for the same period last night. So, as I mentioned, that is the mathematical kind of hurdle that this company has to overcome. These are the whisper numbers, the expectations that the street has on it. But, you can just see the growth that this company has, the demand that they have, the pricing power that they have in the marketplace.
When you look at a stock that has surged over 800%, in fact, I think it's 830% growth in the last 12 months, it means that the market has already aggressively priced in a massive portion of this fundamental as fundamental perfection. And if you want to know exactly how much volatility the big institutional desks are anticipating next Wednesday, we'll have to jump over and take a look at the the options overview here on Barchart.
So, you can see we looked at this over the last few weeks, but if you look at the expected move, which is right down here at the bottom, I'm going to circle on my screen, you can see the expected move is at a a 139, just over 139 dollars. So, that represents, right next to you can see, over a 12% a 12.26% swing for the earnings options chain.
That places a math derived expected range, right to the right of that you can see the expected range is between 900 we'll call it 995 dollars all the way up to 1273 dollars. So, think about that framework. The market makers are telling you that a 140 dollar single day swing in either direction is entirely within the normal bounds next Thursday morning.
If we look further up the dashboard, you can see that implied volatility at the top of the left-hand side there is at a towering 103.3% which which registers a an IV IV percentage of 97% and IV rank of just under 95%. This is is a textbook hyper-inflated pre-earnings premium structure. The options chain is completely maxed out, meaning the the cost to buy a standard option contract right now is trading near the peak of its entire yearly range.
This is the exact fundamental fuel that sparks a post-earnings volatility crush the second the print drops. Interesting though, if you remember the implied volatility that we looked at earlier in the week, it has cooled off its kind of weekly peaks that we've seen a little bit, but that doesn't mean excitement is fading.
It usually means that institutional positioning is largely completed. Hedge funds have built their positions, protective trades are in place, and the market has become more confident in the expectations for the earnings out. And this structural stabilization isn't just happening in an isolated vacuum for Micron.
Because the institutional desks have finished their pre-positioning here, it is sending a massive systematic shockwave across the entire broader memory sector, including Western Digital, SanDisk, Seagate, and probably some of the South Korean players as well. And Micron, as you know, will be the first major memory player to report its financial results.
So, its conference call will act as a definitive macro bellwether for the industry's pricing power. If Micron drops 4 or 5% on Thursday morning due to a typical profit taking or sell the news event that we see, we could also see dynamic rebalancing. Retail traders could get spooked. They could get panic, and they could move off of not only Micron, but they could move off their entire holdings within the storage and the memory sector.
And it would cause a synchronized pullback across the entire sector if that happens. But here's what the smart money understands. Micron's supply constraints are a massive net positive for the rest of the group. Micron's entire HBM capacity is fully sold out under binding contracts for the remainder of 2026 and well into 2027.
And because manufacturing specialized HBM absorbs three times the physical silicon wafer capacity compared to traditional memory, Micron's heavy HBM allocation reduces its flexibility to serve every segment of the broader memory market simultaneously. It creates opportunities for other suppliers to capture that incremental demand in the marketplace.
So, who will step in to absorb that multi-billion dollar overflow? Of course, it'll be the other players. It'll be Western Digital, Seagate, SanDisk, Samsung, SK Hynix. If the algorithm reaction to Micron next week causes a temporary sympathetic drop across the sector, it isn't a sign of structural weakness.
It is a highly lucrative gift-wrapped entry window for each and every one of us as investors. So, how do we trade on this data? How do we What is the market signal definitive playbook for next week after the the market after the print drops on the street on Wednesday? Let me pull up a picture that I created just walk through kind of what I'm thinking in general.
So, you can see on the screen here we got three options, right? We have pillar one which is I think we just need to mentally accept and expect to have day one volatility. If Micron beats expectations and the stock slides 3 to 5% like we did in the last quarter, if we see that on Thursday morning, do not panic.
Recognize it for exactly what history tells us it is, a mechanical one-day clear clearing event where market makers crush option volatility and funds lock in short-term profit. Now, our second option here is and what our recommendation would be is do not chase extreme options premiums right before the print.
As the bar data bar chat the bar chart data showed us the the put call open interest ratio is sitting at a heavy 1.377 right now. That tells us that the institutional desks are aggressively loading up on the downside protection and locking in massive defensive positions. Money is pouring into this option chain at an unprecedented rate, which has pumped the implied volatility rate to a extreme 94%.
But, here's the trap that you need to watch for. If you buy a call or a put early next week, you are paying absolute peak premium for that. The second that the press release drops on June 24th after the market closes, the uncertainty vanishes. And that 103% implied volatility that we see right now in the market, that is going to collapse like a stone.
The IV crush will mechanically wipe out your options value even if you guess the stock's right direction. The market signal playbook here is simple, guys. If you want to trade this print, stick to the physical shares or keep your cash on the sideline and wait for the volatility to clear out on Thursday morning.
And finally, that third pillar that you see there is ignore the top line beat. I think it's going to be incredibly strong, but that's not the most important number for a look for us to look at. We need to focus entirely on the forward contract visibility. The only metric that truly matters for the multi-month trend for Micron is management's commentary regarding long-term agreements for 2027, and their pricing power on conventional enterprise DRAM.
If the structural shortage thesis is verified by manage management on that live call, any short-term dip will be aggressively bought by institutions within the next 48 or 72 hours overall. So, as we wrap up and close the video, just remember the historical data that I reviewed in the Barron's article that dropped this morning, and the options data that we just looked at in the bar chart, isn't a reason to fear next week.
Those are the signals that give us a definitive edge over the rest of the market. We know the history with Micron. We understand the mechanics, and we know that a one-day drop has consistently paved the way for triple-digit structural rallies over the following quarter. The real question next Wednesday isn't whether Micron beats earnings.
The real question is whether expectations have temporarily outrun fundamentals. History suggests a short-term shakeout is entirely possible next week. We could see that on Thursday morning when the opening bell rings. But history also tells us that a one-day volatility and a long-term structural trends are two completely different stories.
So, as we head into next week, try not to panic. Ignore the noise and be patient, and look for any pullbacks that may provide you with an opportunity to strengthen your position, or create a new entry for this position overall. Guys, I hope you like the video. Let me know in the comments below your thoughts.
Again, appreciate the support. Let's get this one to be just as strong as the video we dropped yesterday, but I look forward to you and I look forward to seeing you in the next video. Take care and have a great day.
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