저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이크론이 프리마켓에서 1,000달러를 돌파했고, Omdia 보고서에 따르면 메모리가 반도체 매출 성장을 주도하며 전체 반도체 매출의 40%를 차지해 구조적 재평가가 진행 중이라고 주장. 6월 24일 실적 발표를 앞두고 옵션 내재변동성이 100%(IV 랭크/백분위 100%)로 극단적이며, 풋 오픈이자 비율 1.32 등을 근거로 기관의 풋 매도 및 숏 커버 가능성을 언급. 골드만삭스는 중립 유지하며 목표가를 상향했고, 울프리서치는 1,250달러를 제시했다고 소개. 진행자는 실적 전 대규모 옵션 만기 압력이 상승을 촉진할 수 있다고 봄.
다듬은 글
Welcome back. If you are a Micron stockholder, if you're sitting on the options chain right now, the next 10 days for you, it's it's no longer just critical. It has just turned completely explosive. Because if you're watching the pre-market trading that's happening right now, Micron, it just flew past the thousand-dollar mark.
It's trading right now at about 1026, 1027 a share. And here's the thing, I don't think that this pre-market activity has anything to do with the hype for the the earnings print that's going to drop in 10 days. I think we're witnessing the structural repricing of memory itself. The market is finally beginning to realize or understand something that the Omdia report dropped over the weekend.
They're starting to realize that memory and and storage are no longer supportive players in the AI infrastructure buildout. Memory and storage right now are becoming the the economic center of gravity overall. And with the earnings print only 10 days away, as I mentioned, that realization is colliding with one of the most compressed and heavily positioned options setups for Micron that we've seen in years.
So tonight, we're going to bypass the surface level retail noise, all of the noise in the marketplace, and we're going to look at the hard institutional data right there right that's out in the market. I'm going to show you that groundbreaking report for memory that was dropped by Omdia. We're going to take a look at the options activity behind this stock right now, and I'm going to show you exactly why the market makers are currently trapped with regards to Micron.
So let's get into the video. Let's talk about everything that's happening right now with the stock. . Guys, we need to get this channel up over 25,000 this this weekend. It would be great to do it tonight or within the next day. So if you haven't subscribed to the channel, if you like this content, if you've learned something on this channel overall, do me a favor and hit subscribe now.
Let's get started. Let's jump in and take a look at what Micron is how Micron is trading right now exactly. So here we go. Let's take a look at what we see. You can see Micron right now, if you look in the pre-market below, it has jumped 4 and 1/2% right now. We're trading on great news. I think it is driven a little bit by the Omdia report that I want to get into a second because it just shows how fundamentally strong memory is right now and how it's driving the entire semiconductor sector overall, the semiconductor complex overall.
But just let's look at it right now. 1,026 up $45 a share. I'm going to show you first the other memory sec stocks before we move on. You can see SanDisk is up over $80 right here. We've soared past the 2,000 mark with SanDisk right now. 2,060 a share it's sitting on. Western Digital is up about 4% $22.
It's close getting close to that 600 again. It's at 585 right now. And finally Seagate up almost $36, almost 4% again. Just about three Just about 970 a share overall. So, we're getting to see Seagate move towards that 1,000 mark, Western Digital moving towards that $600 mark, and SanDisk is blown past the 2,000 mark.
So, it's setting up to be a really strong day for the memory sector when we hit that opening bell tomorrow morning. But let's take a look at the report that I wanted to share with you. And this is from from Omdia research firm out of London. You can see what they have said overall. As Omdia semiconductor market surpass surpasses 300 billion quarterly revenue in the first quarter of this year as memory market shifts historical patterns.
So, let's dive into the data a little bit and we can talk call exactly what I have highlighted. But you can see they have the global semiconductor revenue it shattered records overall. In that first line you can see it hit 319 billion in this core in the first quarter overall. That represents a 27% quarter-over-quarter growth rate.
It's the highest sequential jump that Omdia has ever recorded since they begin began tracking the quarterly market back in 2002. But here's the golden nugget within this report for us memory lovers, for us that are Micron shareholders and are like to follow the Fab 4 overall, is that this was not an across-the-board chip rally.
Non-memory them non-memory semi revenue, it only grew by a modest 2%. Let me show you that right here and you can see in this in this paragraph here where it's titled outside of memory growth is more consistent with historical patterns. So, while memory has broken from historical patterns, that is not the case for the rest of the case for the rest of the semiconductor market.
Removing memory shows that the Q1 semiconductor market grew by a much more modest non-memory semi semiconductor revenue grew by just over 2% quarter-over-quarter in the first quarter and that kind of lines up with historical patterns. As you can see the line below, historically the revenue for both overall semiconductor market and non-memory portion decline declines in Q1 by 4%.
So, it's actually up by 2%. So, it is performing a touch better, but it's not performing anywhere where we see where the market the memory market is doing. The entire historic surge for semiconductors, which is called out here by just 27% that Amvia called out, that is being driven by the memory market.
There is no way around that. Memory is driving this sector overall. It is driving semiconductor revenue overall and you can see below, let me see where they call it out. Yep, the second to last line here. Memory revenue drove the increase, rising 80% sequentially from Q1 this year compared to Q4 of 2025.
So, that is a massive jump overall and I want to show you a couple of other things. Take a look at the graph. You can see in the red is the memory growth the memory explosion, the amount of revenue that it's exploding. We've seen that real time. We've tracked it since the beginning of year on this channel, but I also want to show you just what they're calling out around NAND memory.
So, couple things here. First, let's take a look at the first paragraph. It says, "Strong AI demand has affected both DRAM and NAND. You know, the average selling prices have risen sharply." It's what we've talked about on the channel that these memory companies have such pricing power in the market right now.
That's what Amdia's report is showing as well. The result of these two components accounted for over 40% of all semiconductor revenue in the first quarter of 20 uh uh first quarter of this year. 40%. I want you to remember that number cuz I'm going to come back to it in a second. It's much greater than the long-term average of around 20%.
So, typically, this is 20% memory is 20% of semiconductor. Now, it's doubled. It's at 40% overall. But, take a look at NAND. NAND was particularly strong contributor growth. NAND revenue reached just under 48 billion in Q1, rising 96% quarter-over-quarter as pricing increased across the market. NAND average selling prices increased 95% sequentially, driven by sustained AI and data center demand alongside ongoing supply constraints.
So, jump 48 billion, 96% overall. Why? Because enterprise AI deployment and data center infrastructure are consuming every single high-density storage and high-bandwidth memory chip the industry can physically produce. Demand is completely decoupling from supply, and Micron, it sits directly at the epicenter epicenter of that pricing power.
DRAM and NAND have com- completely broken free from historical cycles. They're now accounting for 40% of all global semiconductor revenue. Amdia confirmed that the overall computing data and overall computing and data storage revenue is scaling 90% year-over-year, pushing the industry well past the 700 billion first first half run rate, and it's on its way to surpass the historic 1 trillion the $1 threshold this year.
I want you to think about how extraordinary that is overall because for 40 years we know that that for with regards to semiconductors, it has revolved around CPUs, PCs, smartphones, more recently probably GPUs as well were the story of the day in this sector overall. But today the economic center of gravity is migrating entirely towards memory and storage infrastructure.
That just shows you the power that these companies have, the memory titans, the fab four that we talk about in this channel. I think that's part of the reason why we're seeing that explosion that we're seeing right now in the pre-market. Like I said, this report dropped late Friday. People had a chance to digest it and truly understand the impact that memory memory and storage companies, the fab four, the memory titans are having on the entire semiconductor complex.
It is an amazing stat to see overall. Even with these blistering macro numbers that we just looked at from AMD, Wall Street firms like Goldman Sachs did spend Friday afternoon warning retail investors that expectations may be just too high. Look at the article they dropped. You can see by the title, Goldman is cautious of Micron stock ahead of earnings.
And be to fair that and to be fair to them, they did bump up their price point. So their price I think they went from 500 to 550 to 900 overall. But they they kept a neutral stance on the stock pointing towards short-term volatility. But the data that we're seeing on the screen and what we're seeing in the price in the pre-market right now is telling a completely different story.
Again, if you look at where the stock is trading as I mentioned, it's a 1027 right now up pushing towards 5% and we know if we see where it closed on Friday, it closed at 9 981.61. So it's down about 10% from its all-time high that you see on the far right hand of your screen here in the 52 week of 1089.
So the stock has been spending some time consolidating and digesting the digesting its massive year-to-date gains while trading at a massive discount to the broader AI infrastructure components. And I think Goldman has been in a bit of a debate, I would say, back and forth with some of the other analysts.
So, you can see down here, if I pull it up, where Wolf We know that Wolf Research in about the same time frame, they adjusted their price point as well. They went from 550, but they went to 1250 overall. And they've been very bullish in their statements on where they think Micron can grow to based on the demand that they see in the marketplace around DRAM, NAND, HBM overall.
So, it is a bit of an interesting debate that we're seeing between these two monster firms overall. But I think the important piece is Goldman did increase the price target, but they kept it at neutral overall. So, the one thing I think we have to just think about too as we go into the earnings in 10 days.
We know back in March, Micron, when it's when it reported its fiscal Q2 earnings, it posted an actual earnings per share of $12.20. It absolutely obliterated the Wall Street's consensus estimate at that time, which was, I think, $8.60. It obliterated it by 41%. For this upcoming earnings print on June 24th, the analysts have modeled an estimated earnings per share of 1950 or 1946 as well, just below $1950 a share.
Wall Street is treating treating this stock like it's hit its cyclical peak. But when you have a stretch structural tailwinds, where memory components make up 40% of the total global semiconductor revenue compared to long-term historical average of 20%, this isn't a normal cycle that we see right now.
This is a fundamental repricing of memory as a critical AI computing infrastructure. This brings us to the single biggest question that's probably on all of our minds, and I know it's dominating the institutional desks right now. It's The question is, why will this upcoming quarterly report differ so fundamentally from what we witnessed with Micron back in March.
And if we go back to that March 19th time frame, I think all of us as investors the market we looked at that's the sector completely different. Many of us did in the market at least. There was a fierce debate over the true demand durability for the memory players overall and the true pricing power and the long-term agreements, they were completely under appreciated by consensus.
To the broader market in March, memory pricing was still looked at like a standard high-risk cyclical spike. Now, if we jump forward to June where we are to where we are today in the market and what we've learned along that way just we all know now that the structural reality has completely hardened.
That this sector has been completely re-rated since we looked at it back in March. AMD's AMD's report that they dropped in Friday completely confirmed that as well. Confirmed the memory leadership across the entire technology sector. Completely rewriting the historical revenue shares baseline. We also know now that Micron's entire high-bandwidth memory, the production capacity for that product, it is no longer just a project.
It is entirely sold out through the rest of the calendar 2026 year. And it's sold out under rigid long-term supply commitments. And third those multi-year agreements that the memory sector had been locking up, those are expanding rapidly now as tier one enterprise cloud architects rush to secure physical hardware allocations deep into the 2027 time frame.
So, in March investors questioned whether this cycle was real. Now, in June we as investors were just trying to determine how big this cycle can actually get. And that's a completely different investment problem or let's say a completely different investment opportunity. So, now let's shift gears a bit because I think the main focus for this week is the reality that the technical setup is uniquely compressed.
We know we have a holiday on Friday with June 10th, so the entire options expiration process is forced into Thursday's closing bell, giving us a rare hyper accelerated 4-day trading window. And if we look directly at the options dashboard on Barchart for Micron, the numbers show us that a massive volatility event is already locked in.
So, let me pull that up and we can talk about the options activity, like I said in the beginning of the video. And I want to call roll down here to this window here where you can see options overview that I'm going to call out on on the window. If you're looking at those numbers, you can see a few things I want to call out.
One is the implied volatility overall, the top line. Look at that number, it's a 106.62%. And right below it, you can see it's hitting a definitive 100% for I for IV rank, as well as 100% for the IV percentile overall. Why do these metrics matter? Because they tell us that the options premium are at the most expensive level in a year.
The market has literally never priced in more premium uncertainty over the last 252 trading days. But, make no mistake, this isn't standard volatility. This is pure uncertainty around one of the largest earning power discoveries in modern semiconductor history. In fact, the options market is pricing in a massive $80 $86.39 expected move.
You can see that in the bottom row right here. I'm going to circle it right on my screen. You can see right next to it, it's an 8.8%. So, what that tells us is the market is expecting we could see a swing of $86 in the next 4 days, representing a 9% swing overall in either direction it could go. The derivatives market is is effectively telling us that the house has no clear consensus on whether Micron is worth $900 or $1,100 or something dramatically different.
And because of this, market makers have established a strict expected trading range and it's bounded by a low of 895. That's the floor and then we have the ceiling of a thousand 68 overall. That's the range that the market made it market market makers have set for Thursday's close. And I want you to take a look at this chart on bar chart as well.
If I pull it up for you, I'm going to jump over here to the put call ratio and I want you to look up it's building right here. You can see this chart that's building on the screen right now. The red line in the in the graph below, that tracks the historical put call open interest ratio over the last year and it reveals a massive divergence from normal market behavior.
Notice what happens on the far right. The graph on the far right of the graph that's we approach this highly anticipated June earnings block. Normally when a stock when a stock price rockets towards historic high like we've seen with Micron and you can see it being tracked in that blue line above it overall.
The put call ratio plummets as retail investors chase the momentum and blindly pile into calls. But here, the exact opposite is happening. As Micron surge as you can see in that blue line overall, the open interest in puts spiked right along with it and it's hit an elevated 1.32 level. Mathematically, that means that there's 32% more active put options right now right in compared to call options.
So a novice investor, this sounds ultra bearish like the market is positioning itself for a crash. But to an institutional trader, it means something completely different. It tells us that the institutional smart money didn't throw caution to the wind during the massive rally from Micron. Instead, they were highly disciplined building a literal fortress of structural protection along the way up.
And because implied volatility is at that a hundred percent maximum, a massive portion of those puts were not bought out of fear. They were sold by sold by institutions to collect guaranteed high yield income. This heavy put concentration means the downside for Micron is heavily cushioned. If the earnings news is good, the rapid unwinding of these defensive position positions will provide immediate dry powder to fuel the next leg up for the stock.
So guys, the fuse has been lit for Micron. I hope you can see that the fuse has been lit by everything that I just walked you through because right now, as I showed you earlier, the stock is gapping up significantly in the pre-market. It's up by about 5% overall. Here's the thing, the stock is only about three or four percentage points away from being at the market the market makers absolute weekly ceiling of a thousand sixty-eight.
If the stock breaks past that a thousand sixty-eight options wall early in this compressed four-day trading week, it completely blows the lid off the standard risk models. What was originally designed as a defensive volatile options wall ahead of earnings, it's turning into a historic institutional short-term liquidity squeeze.
All of us can benefit from this liquidity squeeze and it may just very well may push the stock even higher as we head off to the end of this week. So, for me guys, in closing, the real story isn't that Micron is trading above a thousand dollars tonight. The real story is why it's trading above a thousand.
The data now points to a memory that data now points at the memory market is behaving less like the traditional commodity cycle and more like a a critical AI infrastructure with multi-year visibility. Whether the stock immediately pauses, consolidates, or extends higher after earnings, the investment debate has fundamentally changed.
Investors are no longer asking if this demand is real. They are just trying to figure out how big this opportunity can actually become. So, don't let retail panic. Don't let the general media themes fool you and shake you out of this stock. Look at the raw macro data that we shared from Amadia. Look at the multi-million dollar block trades that is happening right now in Market Chameleon.
Go jump on that site and look at what happened on Friday. Look at some of the stock option trades on there as well. The smart money is treating this volatility as a great accumulation window. And the pre-market tape shows that they're already running away with the prize. Guys, it's a great evening for Micron.
It's going to be a great opening bell overall. I'm excited. I hope you are as well. I hope you enjoyed the video. Stay disciplined, trust the data, follow the signals in the market, and I'll see you tomorrow after closing bell. Take care.
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