저자: 미상 · 외국인
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메모리 섹터가 역사적 강세를 보이는 가운데, 삼성 노조 파업(5/21 예정, 18일)이 DRAM 공급 3~4%를 차단할 수 있어 공급 불안이 가격을 밀어올릴 것이라고 주장. 샌디스크 420억 달러 백로그와 78% 마진을 구조적 변화의 근거로 제시하고, 마이크론이 시총 1조 달러(주가 약 885달러)에 도달할 수 있다고 봄. 월요일 시초가는 747달러 상회 여부로 판단하고 10시 이후 진입 권고.
다듬은 글
Guys, welcome back and happy Mother's Day to all the viewers out there. This channel passed the 11,000 milestone over the weekend because we just came off one of the most historic weeks for the memory sector. In fact, I think it was probably one it was the most historic week since the 2008 time frame.
And while the world watched Micron rip for 15% on Friday and SanDisk for 16%, there is a high-stakes zero-sum game that began in Seoul. Tonight, mediation talks are ongoing between Samsung and its largest employee union. And if these talks fail, an 18-day strike starting May 21st could in fact wipe out 4% of the world's DRAM supply in a single afternoon.
This is why the smart money didn't wait for Monday. They dropped almost $3 billion on Micron at the closing bell on Friday. They aren't trading a cycle. They are buying supply insurance right now. And tonight, we're going to break down the end of the cyclicality. I'm going to show you an article by Wall Street Journal.
We'll discuss the $42 billion SanDisk backlog, the Samsung zero hour that has begun and the implications for the market. And I'm going to lay out a mathematical path for Micron and how it could hit the $1 trillion club. Plus, I'm going to give you my my plays and how I'm going to look at Monday morning's opening bell.
So, let's get into it. Let's look at the ground truth. keep this channel growing at the pace it is. Let's get started. First, I want to show you how even the legacy desks at the Wall Street Journal are finally waking up to what we've been tracking in the dark pools and what we've been discussing about the memory sector for months.
Take a look at the article that was posted today in the Wall Street Journal titled Chip Stock Juggernaut shows no signs of slowing down. Soaring profits have investors pouring into shares of CPUs, GPUs, and memory chip companies. So, if you haven't seen that article, I encourage you to pull it up and read it because it's a real bullish signal for the sector overall.
Cuz when they highlight, you're seeing massive rotation of capital into CPUs, GPUs, and crucially, into the memory chip companies. The fi- Wall Street Journal is finally confirming the scarcity economics that we've been discussing for months on this channel. And when the mainstream media starts using terms like soaring profits to describe the memory sector, it tells you that the inst- institutional shift is complete.
We are moving out of the speculation phase and into a high-margin strategic infrastructure cycle, where companies that own the data storage layers hold all the cards. And in the old days, companies bought memory just in time. But today, they are buying just in case. The institutional whales are focused on two big numbers with SanDisk that they believe essentially de-risks the story or the fundamental story for SanDisk.
And let me show you those two numbers. I'll bomb up the screen. I have them highlighted here in green for you. So, it's contract liabilities and remaining obligations. And when you see $500 million in contract liabilities and almost 42 billion remaining performance obligations, this isn't just a sign of good demand for SanDisk.
It's a sign of a total structural pivot for a company that once was a slave to the memory cycle, that once was a slave to the boom-bust cycle of the past. By securing these multi-year firm financial commitments, SanDisk has essentially locked in its 78 78% gross margin for the foreseeable future. Plus that $42 billion backlog, it acts as a massive revenue shield for the company.
It provides the type of visibility usually only seen in high-end software firms, not seen in hardware firms like SanDisk or the other memory players. So, it also proves that the hyperscalers aren't just buying SSDs. They are desperate to guarantee capacity at any cost to fuel their AI clusters. And if you remember the exclusive article we shared last week around how the hyperscalers and the big tech firms were negotiating with SK Hynix to get a seat at the table.
They needed guarantees through the 2027. I think those numbers right there are demonstrative of that. When you're seeing contract obligations, performance obligation, that backlog of 42 billion, it's just showing you how desperate these companies are to get their hands on this advanced memory to help to ensure that they can work through the bottleneck, the biggest bottleneck that we see in the market right now.
This creates a floor for investors under the stock that historically didn't exist. And the memory titans right now are probably they are the cleanest way, in my opinion, to play the AI infrastructure boom with guaranteed long-term pricing power. Last week we also saw the Bernstein report and how they mentioned the mean flation and mentioned that DRAM prices are up 57% just in the last few weeks.
I want to show you Micron's cloud memory and the performance of revenue that they're seeing in the cloud. You guys remember it from the earnings report, but it's right there in the second bullet point of 7.75 billion for cloud memory revenue in the in the fiscal quarter Q2 of 2026. We also know the amount, if you look to the left, the amount of HBM 3 memory that's listed by Nvidia in every one of their their Grace Blackwell racks.
So 13.4 terabytes overall. But take a look at that cloud memory, nice margins too, right there, gross margin 75% for Micron. But look at how it's grown from quarter over quarter. So looking at quarter two of 2025 to where we landed quarter two of 2026. 2.9 billion to 7.7 billion. Massive growth overall for that cloud memory with Micron.
That's the type of demand that we're seeing in the market right now. This This memory unit is operating at gross margins over 70%. This isn't peak territory. This is a new basement for a world that cannot build without this silicon. And unlike legacy memory memory, HBM4 being co-designed with the GPU logic.
So when Micron designs a 36 gigabyte 12 high stack for Nvidia Nvidia's Rubin architecture, they aren't a vendor anymore. They are a foundational partner to the company. And you can't swap out a custom logic memory die midstream. This creates a multi-year moat that the old cycle never had. That's why it's structurally different now.
That's why you see the companies being re-rated differently and how the demand is out through the 2027-2028 time frame. The whales aren't just buying the Micron moat though. Right now in the real time, they are hedging against a potential massive production hole in the East. The stability that we're seeing with SanDisk and Micron, those massive moves that we see are also being amplified by the chaos that we're seeing in Samsung right now.
We're moving from a meanflation scenario to a supply vacuum scenario as one of as Samsung potentially prepares for their lines to go dark on May 21st. So let's dive in and take a look at that story and what exactly it means to the market overall. Cuz you guys have been tracking in it. I've seen many members on the channel drop some comments over the last few days about this, but the Samsung factory strike may push DRAM and NAND prices even higher.
So an 18-day walkout could cut memory output, disrupt recovery for weeks, and deepen shortages already driven by AI demand. So this is a massive story that we're seeing in the market right now. It's There's mediations tonight as I mentioned. So we have to keep our eye on the news to see what the outcomes over are of those mediations will be.
Cuz either way, it's going to have an impact on the market on Monday. This isn't just a minor labor dispute though. It's a systemic threat to the global AI build out. The Samsung Electronics Super Enterprise Union that represents about 74,000 members and they're in a high-stakes standoff with management.
The union is demanding a 15% demanding 15% of the company's total annual annual operating profit to be distributed as employee bonuses. So remember that their operating profit is projected to be about 235 billion for 2026. 74,000 members, that's a massive bonus. I think I'm just quick math is like $400 plus a $470,000 bonuses per member.
I do not see any way that Samsung's leadership team and their management team will agree to that level. But this need with nearly 80% of their union members belonging to the semiconductor division, the me if the mediations fail tonight, we are looking at an 18-day general strike that'll start on May May 21st as I mentioned.
And analysts are already saying the analysts at City have committed or have have slashed Samsung's profit estimates by 11% in anticipation of these payouts. And let me show you what it what TrendForce put up uh the other day just looking at the impact that it could have. So a couple things I want to call out here.
If you look in the middle there about the impact the output impact is 3%, right? So analysts warned that this strike could knock out 3 to 4% of global DRAM supply and up to 3% of NAND capacity. In a market where Micron is already pre-sold through 2026 and SanDisk is sitting on a record of customer advances, even a one supply hiccup acts as a massive price multiplier.
The other piece I want you to look at is just the the recovery period on their on these. You can't immediately come back and start again. It's going to take two to three weeks uh post-strike recovery to get the clean rooms back to where they need to be. So, this is going to have a significantly longer impact if they do strike them beyond just the 21 days.
Cuz like I said, if they go dark, the recovery period for those automatic clean rooms can take an additional month. They say two to three weeks, some say a month to stabilize. And this will create a periodic supply mismatch where pricing power shifts entirely to the secondary players. For Micron and SanDisk, this isn't just a headline, it's a direct catalyst for another double-digit surge in contract prices.
As hyperscalers scramble to de-risk their supply chains and move their orders to a more stable Western-based fabs. The biggest hyperscalers based on TrendForce report here they're at risk they mentioned is is Google and Amazon. You know, the major players that could face delays, but it's not just those, it's all of the hyperscalers that have deals with Samsung.
We know each and every one of them, Samsung's a massive player. So, there's going to be significant impact across the board. So, ultimately, this story is all about supply diversification, I would say. Every hour that the strike looks more likely, capital flows out of Korea and into the US supply chain.
That's why we saw that $3 whale trade last week at Micron cuz it wasn't a bet. As I mentioned in the beginning, it was a move for supply insurance overall. So, they were moving ahead of this potential and hedging against the strike that we could see on the 21st of May. But let's talk about what we did see cuz while all that chaos is happening in Samsung, we did see something significant with the company on May on May 6th.
Let me pull that up. So, Samsung on May 6th is now in the trillion-dollar club. As I mentioned, there's only 13 companies that are in the trillion-dollar club. You can see them on the screen here. A A significant number of them are in the high-tech as you would imagine. But we have Apple, Amazon, I mean you have Microsoft, you have Google, Meta, Tesla, Nvidia.
So, essentially have all the mag seven companies, TSMC, Broadcom, and then the newest entry underneath Walmart here on the far right is Samsung Electronics. And like you said, it's a 13 companies. What we're tracking here is will Micron be number 14. That's what we talked about in the video, um, I think yesterday or the day before, that the countdown now begins.
And as of Friday's close, Micron sits at a market cap of 842 billion. To hit a trillion, Micron needs to reach a share price of approximately 885. And what will a one trillion-dollar club, if they get into the one trillion-dollar club, what will it mean for Micron? Because joining that one trillion club, it isn't just about prestige.
It's not just any number or just a headline. It triggers passive a passive buying wave for the company. S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 funds will be forced to reweight reweight their portfolios, creating a permanent multi-billion-dollar bid under this under the stock. Micron will be transitioning from a cyclical chip maker to a global infrastructure utility, just like we've talked on the channel.
And currently right now, Micron trades at a forward PE that is 50% lower than Nvidia's. As the market stops to see Micron, as when it stops seeing Micron as the cycle play and starts seeing it as a AI utility play, that multiple will expand. It is Micron catches just half of Nvidia's uh valuation multiple.
We're not just going to look at a one trillion-dollar company. We are potentially looking at a two trillion-dollar valuation for Micron. And if you remember in the after hours on Friday, we saw those 177 million and 408 million-dollar prints for the company in the dark pool, the whales are aggressively front running the possibility that Samsung goes dark on May 21st.
If that strike happens, the American foundry or Micron as it holds a key American player, it isn't just the trade. It becomes the only viable supply chain provider in the Western world. So, here's how I'm going to play the Monday morning opening for me. It's exactly what I'm looking at as we come in, and how I'm going to play the memory titans overall at the opening bell.
First, tonight we have to watch the sole news though. If the media If the union mediation fails, expect a gap up at 9:30 tomorrow morning. The market will instantly pivot to the American as the only safe supply chain players out there. So, we have to keep our eye on those news tonight. I'll drop something on the channel if I hear or see anything.
But overall for Micron, the way I'm playing it, I'm going to look at that 747 level. We know we just finished under that on Friday. If we open above this and hold for the first 30 minutes, that $3 billion whale trade on Friday is the confirmation that with this stock is going to start to make its run to 885 and that $1 trillion club overall.
But first, we've got to break through the 800 psychological level. But don't chase the opening. That's my recommendation. Don't chase the first candle that you see. I would recommend waiting till about 10:00 a.m. Let the institutional dip See if it See if it comes, or let's see if the bid holds, if we can hold that 747 for Micron.
For SanDisk overall, uh let me pull it up. I got a slide for you there. Let me For SanDisk overall, just a remind, we know where we closed. We closed at at 1560 1562 overall. Right now in the after hours, it's essentially flat. I think it was down 45 cents. So, it improved from where it was on Friday.
But it But in my opinion, I think if we can break towards that 1565 level, then we'll be in blue sky territory. There'll be no overhead resistance with this stock. If it clears that 1565 level, it could make a run to 1600 by lunchtime on And then we look at the storage kings. And let me pull those up cuz we've got here Western Digital.
I'm looking for Western Digital to push towards that 500. It's at 480. It's been hanging around there. It's essentially flat in the after hours. It's about 50 cents high last time I looked. So, sitting about 480.66 right now. But, I'm going to watch to see if we can make a move to 500 with Western Digital.
It has been lagging the other pure play names. It's been lagging behind Seagate. It's been lagging behind SanDisk and other pure pure play names in this market. But, the catch-up trade is coming for this stock. I just feel it. Investors Investors will move to Western Digital in a hunt to find value in the storage stack.
And finally, Seagate. We know how Seagate finished. They finished at about 767 uh 782 at the close. Overall, you can see in in the after hours they're up about $2 more. So, putting on a little bit more. But, I think we're Seagate in my opinion right now is the stability play. It's had so much room over the and run over the last few weeks.
I think we're going to watch that 782 level. If Seagate starts to lead, if we see that one take the lead within the sector, it is a huge sign that the institutions are moving into those deep value plays like Seagate, like Western just to just to ensure that they're locking up the storage kings and the massive play and kind of the impact and and the relevance that they have in the AI build-out.
That cold storage is so important overall. But guys, that's how I'm looking at it on a Monday. As I said in the beginning of the video, we passed the 11,000. I think we're just over 11,200 now subscribers for the channel. And I believe it's because we follow the data, the true signals in the market, and we block out the noise and the hype.
Samsung strike, the $42 billion SanDisk backlog, the Micron trillion-dollar countdown, and all converging at once in the market this week. If you want the institutional whale perspectives, the insider trade news every single day, and then look at how the the flow of the stocks are moving each and every day.
Then make sure you hit that subscribe button. Make sure you become part of the community, join the channel. Let's keep the momentum going. Drop your comments, your thoughts, your questions below. I look forward to engaging with each and every one of you. I hope you have a great Mother's Day and I look forward to seeing the next one. Take care, guys.
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