Stock Market Investing: Covered Short $QQQ $IWM $SOXX / Time to Swing Long $SPY $SSO $SPXL

요약 보기

시장 단기 바닥(더블바텀) 형성 가능성에 따라 어제 공매도를 청산하고 차익 실현. 장기적으로는 2025년 하락을 기본 시나리오로 보지만 반등 시 숏으로 대응하고 과도한 방향성 베팅은 피함. S&P 60분봉 더블바텀 셋업 확인, 관세(Liberation day) 우려 속 반등 가능성 언급. 단기 매매는 나스닥 소형주·반도체 숏, 지수 롱 중심.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. all right guys let's get to our virtual hedge fund grab a pen piece of paper we're going to go over our macro positioning swing trading indexes when I say macro I'm talking about swing trading indexes using our alos we were aggressively short coming into the day yesterday I'm going to tell you how I've changed that part of the portfolio we'll go over our investing Focus precious metals and the defensive stocks really I'll go over a couple of highlighted stocks to watch stocks that have been elevated to our um the top shelf of our whiteboard which means stocks we might buy soon so stocks to watch and um of course take any questions you guys have a question feel free to throw in the comment section um of this um of this video or the slack room I'm happy to go over something in the morning you guys have on your mind all right um before I dive in don't forget got to make all your own choices this is just information about how I'm running capital for myself and for others that are virtual h fun and um got to figure out your risk tolerance goals all that kind of stuff and execute your strategy and be the smart money so you're looking right now at a chart of the um S&P and you can see right here we have a potential double bottom set up yesterday so I came into the day yesterday aggressively short we held the shorts over the weekend we talked about in the morning meeting Market cratered at the open and the market had an update all day okay and set up what looks like a possible double bottom potential in the S&P and so what I've done during the day yesterday what I did was just take off all of my shorts and book the gains so let's go over our short strategy it doesn't change my opinion of the market I'm very negative I think the Market's going a lot lower throughout 2025 that's my base case but when I short I'm just trying to to stack chips on top of my rather large treasury bill position where we're collecting 4.3% yield so we're going to get in there after rallies put our shorts out when the market gets hammered I'm GNA stay short as long as I feel comfortable and if there's anything that makes me uncomfortable I'm going to book that profit not trying to be a hero here we're not I'm not trying to make a market Direction call and deal with wild swings and think the Market's going to be down huge that is not what we're doing and quite frankly that would be a mistake right we want to be on the right side of probabilities as often as we can and you and I both know that the market goes up most of the time so you know calling for a bare market and calling for masive shorts and holding them for a long time puts you wildly behind the probabilities so if I'm negative like I am now what I Look to do is short rallies and when I see anything that sets up possible bottom whatever double bottom Market reverses hey man I'm happy to book my profit go back into the cash category and day trade so Point number one for today when it comes to carry trading that portfolio where we carry treasury bills all the time and then we day trade off of that treasury bill um so we're not holding anything overnight normally I'm just long in that portfolio I'll be long and short in that portfolio today so I like to go long the S&P but then I short NASDAQ small caps and and really the semiconductor index every now and then I'll put a dow short out but really it's the NASDAQ small caps and the semis that's where I go short okay so um the market were to open and rip higher put in a top over the first couple hours and roll over I'll be shorted The Market opens lower sets up a perfect day trading Playbook type of entry point bang I'll get long okay so that's what I'll be doing in the day trading portfolio now let's talk about how that kind of dovetails with the armor algo for the S&P so our most aggressive algo the one that trades the most um which is what we use to trade triple the S&P on a swing basis with an average holding period of about 10 days when we get a long signal on you can see right here this is a 60-minute chart we have a double bottom base setup okay so it's a that's definitely a reversal day yesterday there's no doubt about that and so if there's any follow through this week that might set off um an opportunity to get along the market for a swing trade average holding periods 10 days could be you know in the 20-day range sometimes it's only two or three days right so any follow through here so let's talk about what would create the follow through from a fundamental I don't know if this is fundamental from a news cycle point of view look um everybody and his brother is afraid of Liberation day tomorrow when I look at Financial websites when I'm you know reading headlines it's you know Liberation day looms you know um and then I get popups I I just started seeing I haven't seen this before maybe you have but I haven't I'm seeing popups on some of these websites learn how to Short sell take a class on short selling that makes me want to cover my shorts immediately I know that's just anecdotal but when we see a double bottom like that and everybody's waiting for some terrible news tomorrow and they're and and for whatever reasons marketing departments are gearing up people to sucker them into classes to learn how to short sell it makes me it makes me think the Market's probably going to have a rally in here now big picture I think the Market's going down this year so I'm going to short rallies but I'm not going to stand in front of rallies okay um