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S&P500 상승 흐름 속 균등가중지수 약세(하락 마디 누적)를 '속 빈 벽' 비유로 경고하며, 1월 초 조정 가능성에 대비해 리스크 관리 모드를 유지. 일부 섹터(테슬라, 비트코인, 마이크로스트래티지, 마라/라이엇 등 선거 테마·크립토)에 한정해 리스크를 취하고, 반도체 숏 헤지를 고려. 비트코인 1분기 120~130k 전망 언급.
다듬은 글
good morning armor insiders welcome to the morning meeting thanks for joining me in the virtual hedge fund I hope you all had a wonderful weekend let's dive into um our three distinct strategies we're day trading we're swing trading we're investing we're going to talk about what the market looks like and how it affects our portfolios before I dive in don't forget virtual hedge fund you've got your strategy your risk tolerance your goals so whatever I say how I'm running my own personal capital and the capital that I'm managing for others and the object is for you to take the information think about it hopefully it's thought-provoking and then execute your strategy and you've got to be the smart money nobody can help you all right so um let's start with as I always like to do start with the big picture of our swing strategies which drive all of our risk on decisions risk often last week I shared with you I am in a risk management mode I'm not in a taking risk mode so um I'm going to be going over with you between now and the end of the year my New Year's resolutions how I want to improve as an investor and a Trader love to hear your comments throw them into the comment section of this video or into the slack room and um I will perhaps make an even bigger list list for me list for you then we can look back and use it as a touchstone while we manage money in 2025 so I've published it for you in the slack room under armor education you can get it in the captain's note that I sent out this morning and I'll just as as I increase that list I'll be adding to it between now and the end of the year um and so I'm going to take one of those New Year's resolutions each day now as we get to the end of the year and share with you how it's going to change the way I trade so let's before we get into philosophy talk about the market in general and it and it um it dubils with philosophy of how I want to run money and be more effective so first of all we use alos to drive entry so what I want to be doing every time I make an investment is I want to First Look at the algo we use our very aggressive strategy for trading the SNP spxl we use our risk monitor which is a bigger picture looking at all 10 major index that really R drives our our massive risk risk on riskof it's designed to identify flows of institutional capital and when we see those flows coming in that's when we take our positions because we have the highest probability of success versus the risk we're taking so today risk monitor is still green but let's remember and I'm going to share with you this chart the equally weighted S&P when did the equally weighted S&P which is a broad look at 500 stocks equally weighted on the S&P go go risk monitor green this is one of the index okay so this was risk monitor green week that was election night the Gap up and then we took a uh most of our risk here after the market corrected right so blew out we were patient waited for the pullback to close the gap or challenge the Gap then we took our positions and we've had a nice run the weighted S&P looks like this so here's your hateful 8 waiting which is the Magnificent 7 plus Netflix the hateful 8 and we did the same thing here on our S&P position and what I want to draw your attention to right now and the title of this discussion today is Santa versus the Halloween out Santa versus the Halloween out what's it going to be do we get the Santa rally that everyone's expecting it always happens end of the year it's been a great year fed's going to cut rates again this week theoretically right and it'll be more important what they say about going forward for the market but theoretically I don't I wouldn't I wouldn't expect the FED to surprise the market right at the end of the year so it's going to probably go as normal and you have this this period of time where the market generally moves higher particularly after a big up year so you've got Santa rally versus the Halloween out this is what the Santa rally looks like and it's being driven by the eight reindeer if you'll allow me to continue this um this metaphor um the eight reindeer that are driving the sled and that's the hateful eight okay and so you see in the weighted index we're trading above every major moving average the 14-day 25 day 50-day standard and exponential and of course the 200 days down here standard and exponential but if you look at equally waited you see the Halloween out what I said to you last week is if you've ever been to the beach with your kids and you build a sand castle you got this wall and the tide starts coming in and the kids are hooping and hollering right and if you look you'll start to see the bottom of the wall gets hollowed out the Wall's Still Standing kids are having a great time bottom of the wall is getting hollowed out and then eventually the wall Falls over much to the Delight of the children okay now this is what's happening in the stock market the Wall's Still Standing everything looks great and the hateful L are driving driving the sled but this is the holl out we've had 10 negative candles on the equally weighted SNP now I just use the equally weighted it it's a perfect representation of breath people love to talk about breath and it's ter and it's I could go on all day about statistics about how bad the breath is all you have to do is look at the equally weighted S&P 10 negative candles in a row seven down days in a row the Dow's been down seven days in a row that's the hollowing out and so we come right down to not only the uptrend but the key 50-day moving average on the equally weighted does this mean the market has to crash no no we're in an uptrend it pulls back from the top of the trend to the bottom of the trend it's on the 50-day moving average Santa rally probably unfolds what really worries me is the first two weeks of January but we can get to that you know in a couple just wanted to share with you where we're at risk monitor still Green Market still going higher breath getting terrible equally weighted looks terrible but it's on the uptrend so unless it literally breaks down in here this is actually where you'd be buying stocks for the year end rally right it's come right down to the support it should bounce and what I suspect will happen is that bounce and if it's really going to be a difficult q1 you're going to make a a lower high in this index so it'll Bounce from here but not make new highs the SNP weighted will make new highs you'll get a negative Divergence and then proverbial chickens come home to but we can worry about that later I just wanted to put that on your mind and this is why I'm on risk management mode I'm not on let's add a lot of risk in here now let's talk about where I would add risk I thought we saw last week particularly in the end of the week um the the refocusing resurgence what's the word I'm looking for of the market behavior in the um election night Trends and let me show you what I mean Tesla's just skyrocketing this is the classic example of election night Trends Tesla's Skyrocket of course we bought at election night and we're on just an unreal rip okay um Bitcoin over the weekend it hit 106,000 trading right now around 103 point maybe 104 is trading around okay okay backed off in 106 just a total rip the meantime anything involved in a tariff war is cratering this is steel anything involved in biotech getting wrecked okay so this was the original selloff RFK coming in who knows what they're going to do blah blah blah biotech pharmaceutical looks terrible it rallied crater rallied this was the lection night crater rally now it's resuming the downtrend steel cratered Val now it's really getting wrecked meanwhile Tesla's up again this morning so what I think you're seeing into the end of the year is just a a refocus on what was working and what is really the election theme and that puts this stock into the highlighted stock of the day for us and that has to be micro strategy okay what you're looking at right now first of all let's let's just zoom out and look at micro strategy so you have a huge base in micro strategy with this perfect pennant and an unreal Skyrocket into now another high tipe wedge on Friday micro strategy was added to the NASDAQ 100 we talked about this maybe a week or two ago there's an upside down pyramid of investing Capital this is true in all regards so while you may have um millions that will invest in micro cap stocks you have hundreds of millions that will invest in small cap stocks you have billions that will invest in you know mid to large cap stocks and that keeps getting bigger into the trillions I mean it's like goes like this hundreds of billions right so there are rules and regulations there are compliance officers that don't allow certain pools of capital to invest in smaller cap assets and so as you walk up that latter it becomes a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy just look at the hateful eight you understand what I'm talking about the the higher they go the larger they get the more access to Capital the more Capital comes in this is happens over a long period of time when it comes to micro strategy being added to the NASDAQ 100 is another key that unlocks another tier of that upside down pyramid of capital the next step in the process for the micro strategy now is to be allowed to to for the for the credit default swap Market to begin trading CDs on micro strategies bond which will unlock another massive tier of capital you see micro strategy to make this a simple discussion is allowing tiers of capital that are not allowed to buy Bitcoin from a compliance point of view or whatever they're allowing that large tier of capital to access the Bitcoin invest through equity and convertible debt and as they climb up each rung of the upside down pyramid ladder it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy they're able to issue more convertible debt they're able to buy more Bitcoin they issue more shares larger and larger market cap now we're in a NASDAQ 100 realm I suspect Bitcoin will trade between 120 130 and q1 I suspect themes that happened on Election night to outperform in q1 that will be crypto it'll be Tesla other other things that are performing because of election night and so if I was to take risk this is where I take risk in a micro strategy if you want to own a pennant like that in Mara if you're looking for this to finally break out okay this is a huge pennant this hasn't happened yet but they're following in the footsteps of micro strategy in Riot they're following in the footsteps of micro strategy in Mara and they now have activist investers coming in to really really turn this story on but as you can see it hasn't even broken out yet these are the areas where I would take risk if I want to take risk and of course coinbase is one of my favorit so I don't have a lot of to wrap up this conversation I don't have interest taking risk I raised cash last week in the indexes my index positions still have exposure risk monitor is still green the hollowing out versus the Santa rally Market could still bounce in here I got some exposure on I'm concerned about the first couple weeks of January because of the hollowing out I want to see what happens when the market bounces into the end of the year is it a lower high is it more of a Divergence that's usually how Market tops are put in it's not just a selloff that creates Market top it's a selloff and a rally that makes a lower high and then versus other indexes you start to get negative divergences and that's really what sets up the fall so my eye is on risk management I'll take risk in a small sliver of the market that is benefiting from election night Trends if I was to be short I'd go the opposite route I'd be shorting things like steel but I'm not shorting right I do have my eye on shorting the semiconductors I may use that as a hedge against the rest of my portfolio and I've talked about that a lot with you before so this is the pattern I'm looking at I would take that hedge off if we close above the 200 day moving average right stay below it I'm looking to hedge and just like I'm talking about things of you know Bitcoin in my expectations of where I think it will go in q1 or whether or not I'm short please remember whatever I say when it comes to my expectation it's married to a stop if I get stopped out I have to reassess my expectation I don't fall in love with my predictions this isn't about an ego it's about a goalpost what do I think the market can do what do I think an asset can do if it starts to do that I benefit from that decision if it goes the opposite way I know my thought process is incorrect and I have to reassess so those are my thoughts for today I'll be focused on the Bitcoin play um and I'll just wrap up now with some philosophy as I'm going to do this every day with you at the end of this morning meeting I want to go over one of the so far eight New Year's resolutions let's just take it from the top let's talk talk about um what I like to call focus on the harmony of three so this is something I want to focus on as I put money to work from now going forward I don't have to wait for 2025 to start doing it I want to focus on the harmony of three and we all know what this is when we put on a new position when we make a new investment we want to look at the day trade setup the swing trade setup let me let me take that back I want to look at the day trade setup the daily setup and the weekly setup and I want to get all of them aligned because that's the highest probability of success so when we're taking a new position and I'll give you just an example let's say Tesla okay when we were taking a new position in Tesla what we were looking at down here is an ideal weekly entry point the market was Tesla was breaking out of a major downtrend that had gone back to all the way 2021 so we had the weekly chart pattern set up and it looked actually let's go could be interesting here on the O'Neal chart let's go look at the weekly setup so this was a huge weekly base and what we were looking at was a big bottoming wedge on Tesla oops didn't want that line right big bottoming wedge on Tesla then we drilled down so we know we've got the right weekly chart pattern then we drilled down into the daily setup using our alos and the buy trigger was right in here this was an island reversal we talked about that and on Election night we we got long and it's Skyrock that's the that's the center fold right that's the pinup that's the chart pattern we want right there weekly bottoming wedge breaking out so we know we have strong weekly momentum then we get on the daily armor algo buy trigger and then we use day trading techniques to get on the trade I like to get on a trade sometime during the day have it close higher and I go to bed at night already with a cushion of profit then you let the position go so that's one thing I want to make sure I'm focused on as I take new positions um any new positions that get added to the portfolio I need the harmony of three to get that going all right you all have a wonderful trading session armor report subscribers you're on your own you can always throw a question in the comment section armor insiders 9:30 we got our live trading desk started you got questions you guys find uh you're struggling to execute the strategy that you're trying to come up with I'm here to chat happy to be a sounding board 561- 575 6832 everyone have a great day of trading and remember at the end of the day be the smart money
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