저자: ARMRReport진행자—소속확인필요 · 외국인
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NVDA는 4단계 베이스 실패 가능성을 언급하며 단기 조정 후 새 구조 형성 가능성 제시, 반도체 내 순환매 관측. TSLA는 일부 비중 축소 후 코어 포지션 유지, 실적 전 리스크 관리 강조. ODD는 웻지 패턴 상향 돌파 후 3백색병사 캔들로 강세 평가. UBER는 200일선 반등 확인 시 매수 의향, DOCS는 25일선 지지 여부 보며 스타터 포지션 고려, F·ALB는 보유 중이며 비중 확대 의향 표명.
다듬은 글
good morning armor insiders thanks for joining me this morning and getting your day started we're going to go over audity in a minute because that is a classic chart pattern you're going to want to freeze that frame print it up put it above your desk we're going to go over our virtual hedge fund your portfolio manager on the desk you've got your trch Capital I've got mine we're working together sharing information information making us all better um but at the end of the day you've got to figure out your risk tolerance goal strategy and be the smart money but couple of thoughts uh uh Nvidia this is a stage for base and it's struggling to break out as expected so it got crushed down to the 50-day moving average and the support yesterday on Nvidia let me be clear I've been saying this for a while I expect that to fail stage four bases fail it it doesn't mean that that I'm saying Nvidia has to crash I'm just saying a whole new structure has to form could be uh ultimately a cup at handle so there's the cup then it comes down to this white line the 200 day moving average and then starts to curl back up and you have a whole new B and you start you start counting fresh this will end up being stage number one of a whole new uh um expression but right now this is just too much for one asset and it needs time to do something different and that's just classic stage four base failure right there what I find interesting is that it's not hitting uh a socks and so that tells me perhaps two things number one it's not crushing socks if that can that's a head and shoulders if that doesn't break down but Tesla but Nvidia comes down a bit that sounds like just rotation inside of semiconductors the AI story is great semiconductors are necessary they're in demand and they're just taking some out of Nvidia which means Nvidia is not going to Crater it's just going to kind of do like this and underperform for a while while it sets up a bigger base for the next Launchpad if you're a believer in Nvidia and in the mean time maybe money comes into other um semi stocks I don't know about that I mean this is just one day or three days I mean nvidia's down for three days and semis are up for three days so I'm I'm just I'm watching that closely I'm very curious um how that's going to end up playing out let's do talk about Tesla for a minute I reduced my exposure to Tesla here and I I love the story we bought it you know election night it blew out I love the chart pattern and and then it had that reversal yesterday and and I'm wondering if I shouldn't just book my gang completely in Tesla right now it's a political football so I think that profits can be probably booked if if I wanted to just swing trade this position I booked my entire gain on that on that reversal yesterday but I'm going to trade around a core position that's the commitment I'm making and I'm going to do it so I've got a stop in there a little bit below 300 reduce the size up here trade around the core just like we did IBM as it comes down find support reverses add more to it I think I want to own it long term so I'm going to trade around the court but if somebody said to me I just want a swing trade then I'd say I'd be out of it right now that was just a perfect reversal um earnings tonight alert alert alert crowd strike earnings tonight so you know two thoughts come to mind the first thought is you got to manage risk you know you never know what's going to happen on announcement could be a total collapse people don't like the number whatever could blow out to new highs I have no idea so you have to just manage risk look at the portfolio what's the size versus your portfolio how big is your position are you can you accept the risk sometimes I ask myself worst case scenario disaster stock drops 50% what would that do to my my net worth how about even if that's not fair 50% is kind of crazy how about 20% like a really bad earnings announcement drops the stock 20% usually how would that make you feel if you feel like you're G to throw up because of that then your position's too big so pair it to a position where you could just handle the swings and you can always reup and make for a larger trade the flip side is you got to be in it to win it right you can't just sell the position going announce earnings I mean thing could blow out run 25 % so you have to find the position where you can handle that volatility into earnings and then live with it okay so there you go um the other way to go about it is to own bug right you could not own the individual names and you could own the ETF and then you won't make as much but you don't have to you know live on a Razor's Edge of earnie's announcements I've been looking for for an entry into Ford so I took a half position there as it closed in the green box I want to see how it behaves I want to double it at some point I start with a half position on these armor invest ideas I call it a half position it's an average position an average position is the half sometimes I double it sometimes I just live with a half and I'm happy with that I'm GNA have 10 to 15 names in my armor invest portfolio when I'm fully invested sometimes it's 10 sometimes it's 15 depending on how big I want to make them so I've got a piece on of Ford and I have a piece on of ALB okay and I'm I'm looking to increase the size there the time to own lithium is when nobody wants to talk about lithium add Uber back to my um uh off the Record portfolio I just this is where you have to buy Uber right right on that uptrend for some strange reason Uber recently has been like the anti- Tesla I just think it's a ridiculous narrative I don't think Tesla is going to unseat Uber in its business model because there might be a robo taxi it's just stupid so whatever I'm not going to argue with the market I don't own it right I don't I'm not arguing with the market right I we had a position on I took it out it went lower but it's put in a perfect reversal at the 200 day moving average in the uptrend so it's off the record right now but if it hits that green box I'm going to own that everywhere and I'm also toying with getting doc back in my portfolio so I've got a starter position in me off the Record portfolio I want to see if the 25 day moving average holds and really this Fibonacci retracement holds stock jumped 40% because they had a major you know they hit that inflection point in AI driving their business and I I think it's a really big stock and so I don't know if this is a you know a blowoff and it's over or am I looking at gift horse in the mouth because when it was up 40% I couldn't believe I had known it right I I made some money in it sold it for four earnings and it blew out okay now it's come all the way back to the 25 day it should hold the 25 day if it if it closes the entire Gap then I'm missing something and I'm not going to hold it but if it holds a 25 day I want to I want to put on a position in here so I'm toying with that am I off the off the Record portfolio those were the additions let's wrap up with a quick review and this is where you want to grab pen piece of paper you want to you want to screenshot this you want to put it on your your um put it above your desk put it you know maybe you want to frame it because you're not going to see a better pattern than this okay so there's Candlestick chart in it we're going to go over but first the basic chart pattern here is a classic wedge it's one of my favorite chart patterns you hear me talk about it all the time let's remember what chart patterns are they're just showing us they're they graphic representation of the battle between buyers and sellers and so when you have lower highs it means the sellers were faster to sell right and when you have higher lows the buyers were more aggressive to buy and so when that comes to aead you get a break one way or the other and it's usually aggressive because at it's a it's a battle between buyers and sellers and when you when it comes to aead and you break out of that penet one way or the other whatever Army is doing the run the the breaking they're going to overrun the other Army and that's what's going on here in um in odity the entire life of the stock because it was a new issue back here the whole life of the stock is a pennant broke out of the pennant pulls back to test we actually bought it right on the 50-day moving average in the morning right here this was on the 20 21st yeah 21st in the morning on the 50 and it just blew out by the end of the day and it was a new position in our portfolio so we used a little day trading tool to get on that and it blew out we held it but now what you're looking at are three white soldiers so if you go read your Candlestick charting textbooks this is a textbook three white shoulders it's hard to find textbook anymore it's hard to find a chart this clear three white shoulders You Soldiers usually portends greatness it there that should be a big stock from here and then you look at the bigger picture of the wedge and it makes sense so you know we'll see where it goes we'll see where it goes from here this is an AI Beauty story using AI the beauty and health space for women my wife is using the product she loves it you know I don't know she loves it she thinks it's great she thinks it's lots of fun so um there you have it there's my research in the meantime I'm going to be trading that chart pattern everybody have a wonderful day on the trading desk I I know I will I hope you have a wonderful day on your trading desk with me um I'm report subscribers any questions throw it into the comment section I'm happy to answer and uh of course guys listen part of the fun here is if you're looking for sounding board you want to chat and kind of refine your process I'm here for you pick up the phone 561 575 6832 everyone have a great trading day and remember to be the smart m
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