저자: NourielRoubini · 외국인
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결론: 과도한 공공·민간 부채는 지속 불가능하며, 부채 부담을 줄이기 위해 인플레이션을 통한 사실상의 간접 디폴트가 나타날 가능성이 크다. 글로벌 부채 현황: 1999년 전 세계 공공+민간 부채는 GDP의 약 220%였으나 2019년 코로나 이전 약 360%로 상승했다. 선진국은 420% 수준이고 신흥국은 약 250%다. 신흥국 부채는 외화 표시 비중이 높아 환율 위기 시 실질 부담이 급증할 수 있다. 암묵적 부채: 연금, 의료, 장기요양 등 미래 재정지출 약속에서 발생하는 부채로, 래리 코틀리코프 추정 시 GDP의 100% 이상이며 명시적 공공부채와 합치면 두 배 수준이 될 수 있다. 재정 구조: 선진국의 정부지출 비중은 고령화와 사회안전망 확대로 상승 추세이며, 세율 인상도 정치적·경제적으로 한계가 있다(유럽 고세율의 성장 저해 사례 언급). 따라서 구조적 재정적자가 지속된다. 해법 전망: 재정적자를 화폐로 계속 메우면 결국 인플레이션이 오고, 고인플레이션은 장기 고정금리 명목부채의 실질 가치를 줄인다. 이는 사실상 인플레이션세를 통한 부채 축소이며, 자국 통화로 장기 고정금리 채권을 발행한 선진국에 특히 유효하다. 반면 외화부채가 많은 신흥국은 아르헨티나·레바논처럼 실제 디폴트 위험이 크다. 신흥국 대응: 부채를 주식 등 지분형 상품과 연계하거나 파생상품으로 헤지하는 방안을 제시했다. 시장 투자 관련 구체적 종목·지수 가격 전망은 언급되지 않았다. 결론적으로 인플레이션 재발 가능성과 신흥국 환율·부채 리스크를 경계하라는 거시 진단이 핵심이다.
다듬은 글
in this video nuria roubini tried to explain why we are moving from great moderation to great instability and what's going to be the nature of this great greater economic and financial instability so in a nutshell it was just how inflation can be used to resolve the unsustainable debt problem so you're gonna hear him now say that the inflation might be part of that solution that we're gonna have to use inflation to resolve unsustainable debt problem if you look at the data in addition to public debt the debt of the public sector there is also private debt and the private debt is the debt of the housing sector the debt of the corporate sector and the debt of the financial institution and the sum of these three is private debt now if you sum private in public debt as a share of gdp and you go back to say 1999 for the world economy as a whole the summer private and public debt at that time was about 220 of gdp the data instead for the recent times say 2019 before the covet crisis was that this number had gone from 220 to 360.
and this is before the covet crisis as we know during the crisis there has been a large increase both in private and public debt we don't have the latest numbers but they'll be updated by the institute for international finance soon let's quickly have a look at some of those figures here this is you'll find the links to this in the description box below see that that has reached the record high and all that you can see the chart this was as far back as um when was that 2018.
so i mean easily um i mean there's and there isn't any doubt about that easily you know the way the water operates with the debt and that's where we are going so you see more um of of uh debt accumulation and the increase in the discrete through these links you find them in the description box below and moving on 120 to 360 and rising sharply moreover in advance economies this number is even higher than 360.
today is about 420 percent of gdp and rising in a country like china where there's been a huge buildup of private and public debt and we have seen the problems of real estate sector reasoning but it's not just real estate you state the local government state on enterprises and other so this uh brings us to this chart this is the chart of china's china's dirt total debt to gdp ratios in major economies okay not just china it includes china yes and it says here on this is a cnbc site caesar but china's china isn't the only country that recorded search in 2020 other economies such as u.s japan and um those europe similarly saw an uptick in debt to gdp ratios okay but the combination composition of china's debt is unlike us in japan the corporate sector in japan accounted for a large portion of total debt and more than 160 of gdp according to bis data meanwhile meanwhile government debt uh made up uh large share of uh total total debt in the us and japan the data showed so and this just validates uh what we are seeing with um evergreen you can see that this is to some extent and this was even before this uh evergreen issue came up so um i mean we all know that i mean most people knew that evergreen had a problem so um this is just the body data what what he was saying there you know yeah so i have let me read on so we've gone from 220 to 360 and rising sharply moreover in advanced economies this number is even higher than 360 360 today it's about a 420 percent of gdp and rising okay that's what we've read that so the stock of private and public debt today is about 330 percent of gdp and rising for a typically margin emerging market the numbers a bit low a bit lower 250 percent of rising but it look but a lot of emerging market debt is in foreign currency and there is a if there is a currency crisis the real value of it may rise very sharply and make a debt unsustainable very fast so now um this stock of explicit debts that is debt that is clearly plainly issued and in detail leaving room for no ambiguity or misconception rather than public debt but in addition to explicit that we have also a huge amount of of implicit debt as well okay so let's find out what implicit debt is so implicit that simply means refreshed to uncomfortable future government expenditures grounded in promises to pay pensions of our medical treatment to the unsure uninsured and to provide long-term care to the elderly so that is what implicit debt is all about so especially in the public sector and implicit debts in the public sector derives from the fact that there is a large number of future unfunded liabilities for example most pension systems in advance economics economies like the us social system is pay as you go and the number of young people who are working who are contributing to the phone is becoming smaller the number of other people who are going to retire is becoming larger and therefore if you want to maintain the same benefits for the old and the young there is a huge unfunded liability there is also uh uh jesus found that there's also there's also the liability coming from the health care system again the agent of population implies that there will be more and more old people and the taxes we are paying or americans are paying for health for all we okay we have the taxes we are paying for health care like in the us the payroll taxes for medicare is uh too small to cover uh the very serge that is occurring in healthcare costs for aging populations okay and it's not just for agent population after the covey crisis we will have to spend more on health care and vaccines and prevention both for the old and the young okay we don't have exact estimates of these implicit debts economists like larry kotlikov have estimated implicit debt may be as high as 100 of gdp if not higher but public debt as a share of gdp is already very is already well above 100 of gdp in most advanced economies but if you have the implicit debts it's double that amount the other thing according to him we have right now is that we have that that is that we are we have a very large physical deficits the gap between what we spend and the the revenue of the government and this budget this budget deficits are um structural now we have we are now uh okay how are we going to reduce the over reduce this over how so how are we going to reduce over time these deficits and debts that are becoming increasingly unsustainable it has to be uh it could be two options according to him want to reduce government spending as a share of gdp but he thinks it's mission impossible in advance economies the trend is for government spending as she of the gdp to increase rather down to four there's more social safety net there are more old people there's more need to try to push back against inco income and wealth inequality and transfer money to those who are left behind so the trend in most advanced economies is that the share of gdp the share of government spending as the sea of gdp is rising it's not falling so that's not going to happen to cocked government spending i suggest just as a share of gdp so he asked can we raise taxes enough to cover the gap between spending and revenues again he thinks it is uh mission impossible for two sets of regions politically it is very hard to raise taxes taxes certainly on the poor certainly on the middle class and even on the reach that are powerful they use lobby to prevent that from happening and economically of course if we are to increase too much taxes on uh labor taxes on capital taxes on wealth at some point high taxes will have negative impacts on incentives labour supply capital investment and economic growth we've seen that according to him in europe where tax rates are very high in economic and high and economic growth potentially is much lower than in the us so government spending as a share of gdp is going to be higher it's going to be higher revenue as a share of gdp is going to remain low because of that there is a gap of large structural deficits because of of that debt ratios that as a share of gdp is going to be rising and therefore we need to do something about it um or eventually that is going to become unsustainable and you could have actually a default so he asked now what's what's the solution solution is inflation if you keep on monetizing physical fiscal deficits and the debt you keep on keeping you i mean you keep on printing money eventually inflation is going to come back it will be much it will be too much money chasing too few goods it has not happened according to him but it's going to happen over time and if you have high inflation and this high inflation is unexpected you can reduce the real value of nominal long-term debt as there is a fixed interest rate this is because if inflation is higher you are wiping out the real value of the debts or equivalently the real return of those fixed in interest rate long term bonds wave high inflation it is going to be lower it is relatively or it is effectively another form of capital navy so he fears that lose monetary policy with a loose policy and high debt is a combination and over time leads to essentially using inflation tax tax as a way of making debts unsustainable and why not say um if you are an emerging market and you borrow in a foreign currency you can you cannot wipe out the real value of debt with inflation in which case uh it has happened in um in this in this case it has happened in argentina lebanon and many other episodes the solution is going to be an ultra default you know but in advanced economies that are borrowing uh in their own currencies and borrowed long term on fixed interest interest rates you don't need to default formally on debt you can do an indirect default that is wiping out the real value of your debts and deficits through high inflation so certainly according to him it will be over time and an incentive to do that so um yes inflation is coming and you never know that could um it's probably how it has to probably come because you know we now have um the huge deficits the huge debts you know we are facing all over the world you know and even if the whole world is not facing it the u.s is facing it and what happens in the u.s affects every part of the world so as it concerns emerging markets you know there are ways the major markets even though i'm not sure many of them do that there are ways emerging markets can hedge against unsustainable debt you know um usually just best when they issue debt you know to also issue equity to balance that out you know they can issue um i mean um they can if it's possible to use uh platforms like um the cb the chicago cme chicago macantire exchange to issue instruments you know even if if that is not not possible they can come around and set up their own platforms to issue equity or some sort of derivatives that are a hedge as against the um those they did the debt the issue and you know leave it out there and um you know even if it doesn't really mean that um um it's going to be a hedge at least you know just another instrument that people can fall back on debtors can fall back on you know to ensure that uh they're not completely left out you know so um that's these are some things um emerging markets can tap into and show that um the balance turns out there are options there you know it's the tools that are open they're open up there to emerging markets there are a lot of things they can do to sustain their debt to you know hold back and to prevent to prevent to prevent a currency crisis and all that stuff so thank you very much for watching this video
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