저자: NourielRoubini · 외국인
요약 보기
Fed 테이퍼링 전망: 현재는 저성장·인플레 상승이 공존하는 약한 스태그플레이션 성격이며, 향후 방향은 공급 병목과 델타 변이 영향이 일시적인지 지속적인지에 달려 있다. 성장 전망: 낙관론자들은 2021년 3분기 약 5%, 4분기 약 6%, 2022년 미국 성장률 4~4.5%를 예상하며, 2022년 근원 PCE 물가는 3.75~4%로 높게 봄. 더 낙관적인 견해: 일시적 요인이 사라지면서 근원 PCE가 2022년 말까지 4%에서 2%로 하락하고, 4분기 이후 성장이 견조하게 회복될 것으로 봄. 성장 회복 근거: 델타 변이 우려 약화에 따른 선진국·신흥국의 재개방 확대, 중국 경기 둔화에 대응한 통화·재정 정책 확대. 정책 전망: 연준은 2021년 12월 또는 2022년 초 테이퍼링을 시작하되 매우 완만하게 진행할 가능성이 큼. 테이퍼링을 미룰 가능성도 있음. 시장 상황: 9월 초 미 증시가 하락세였고 시장과 주류 언론·금융기관이 4분기 약화를 선반영하는 분위기임. 진행자는 이것이 연준의 행보에 영향을 줄 수 있다고 봄. 진행자 관점: 주류 매체가 시장을 과도하게 비관적으로 몰아가고 있다는 시각을 보임. 종목·자산별 구체적 가격 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
will the fed taper first of all let us establish where we are today we are currently experiencing slow growth and rise in inflation mild stagnation that is what we are currently experiencing right now especially in the u.s according to bob kendall of kendo reports a youtube channel you may have come across that channel and indeed bob himself everybody's talking about a weaker q4 and he asked if they are all downsizing and it actually comes in weaker it's bad news good news right now is it is this going to mean the fed is not going to taper if they're going to have fourth quarter weakening why is the fed going to table he points out that there are mixed signals right now that's what we are seeing mixed signals so in the short term as it concerns the u.s economy and indeed the global economy for obvious reasons the questions amongst others are are their stagnations like inflationary pressure risks if so will they be short-term like six months are there short-term supply bottlenecks or are they going to be more persistent more negative negative supply shocks lose monetary and physical policies persist these questions were posed by nuria roubini a renowned professor of economics at new york university's stan sten school of business he answered by indicating that it all depends on whether it is aggregate demand and whether the factors of aggregate demand and aggregate supply are temporary or more persistent over the medium and long term the supply bottlenecks both for goods markets and labour markets are going to go away and growth is going to increase and therefore also the upward pressure prices and wages coming from these negative supply shocks in the short term are going to go away as well according to the railroading so those who are optimistic believe that growth is going to be weak in q3 2021 this year 2021 say around five percent then it's going to be stronger in q4 around six percent and next year 2022 u.s growth is going to be strong safe four to four point five percent core personnel consumption expenditures pce figures will be high they say 221 i'd say 3.75 percent to 4 however people that are less that are more optimistic believe that then these temporary factors will go away and that gradually undergraduate core pce by next year 21 2022 is going to fall from four percent towards two percent by the end of next year so in this scenario growth is going to improve over time and it's going to be robust in the fourth quarter after the slowdown of this water this this uh quarter of 2021 so uh it's going to remain quite strong above potential in the u.s and globally next year for some reasons according to robini first of all the first of the reasons is that the delta variant concerns will fade away both in advanced economies and emerging markets there will be more reopening and reopening of more sectors and services growth is going to pick up as long as we control the the delta variant and all that variance secondly the chinese growth is going to recover as the chinese may react to the slowdown they are currently having by doing more monetary and physical credits testimonials thirdly the third or the third policy response is going to be accommodative and dovish so roubini believes the fed will taper from december or in early 2022 and may pursue it slowly so this brings us back to the question we asked earlier with the will the fair table so going by going by what is going on right now as indicated by bob kendall the fed may well taper modestly as rare beanie indicated or may push it down the road because the mainstream media and indeed major financial institution institutions are pricing in weaker q4421 so there's a good chance the fed may you know start to taper from december but it will just be so modest that it will poorly be insignificant you know we can see that the mainstream banks and the mainstream media they are all constantly constantly barraging us with uh eureka q4 weaker q4 you know as if you know they are trying to talk down the market and of course now you know i sat uh this last week the week that uh began after the labor day holiday you know the markets you know for four sessions from that tuesday the 14th of august tuesday so tuesday the i mean the tuesday after the labor labor day in the u.s the markets continue to decline and decline on the clientele the 10th of september so today is the third end of september we don't know what's going on we haven't checked what the outlook is currently at the moment so yes the question is will the fed still go ahead and taper when the we're going when we when markets are pricing in uh fought what the fourth quarter uh weaknesses you know um would that be the case there's every chance the fed may not tape up or may just do it so modestly at that you know so maybe the market the markets want to force the hands of the amount of the fed you know because we can see roubini is pointing out that maybe the fourth product is going to be strong about the market the the the markets and indeed i would i wouldn't say the markets the mainstream media and indeed the major financial institutions uh you know trying to talk it down trying to and i'll currently price it in uh weaknesses so what's it gonna be what do you think tell us what you think in the in the comments box below and we'll go from there okay so thank you very much for watching this video
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