Market Implications Of The US China Relations As Propounded By Nouriel Roubini

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결론: 미중 관계 시나리오별로 미국·중국 위험자산 성과가 갈리며, 신냉전·데커플링과 투키디데스 함정 시나리오는 양국 증시에 부정적이라는 거시 분석이다. 시나리오 1: 미국 상대 우위 유지, 중국 성장 둔화. 미국 위험자산이 중국보다 나을 것이라고 봤고, 중국 경기둔화가 금융위기로 번지면 2015~2016년처럼 글로벌 리스크가 될 수 있다고 경고했다. 시나리오 2: 미중 동반 약화. 저성장과 실패국가 증가로 양국 위험자산 모두 부진할 것이라고 봤다. 아프가니스탄 사례를 언급했고, 현재 이 시나리오가 본격화된 상황은 아니라고 했다. 시나리오 3: 미중 동반 강세(냉전형). 이론상 글로벌 증시에 좋지만, 패권 경쟁으로 냉전이 심해지면 디커플링과 경제 블록화가 진행되어 위험회피와 성장 둔화가 나타날 수 있다고 봤다. 시나리오 4: 투키디데스 함정. 중국 부상과 미국 약화가 겹치면 열전 위험까지 거론되며, 역사적으로 500년간 16번 발생했다는 점을 들었다. 다만 그렇게 된다고 확정하지는 않았다. 투자 함의: 중국 자산 보유는 시나리오에 따라 매력이 있지만, 미국 투자자가 중국 자산을 가졌다면 디커플링 때 손실 위험이 있다. 미국 상장 중국 기술주도 양국 갈등의 영향을 받는다. 중국 기술기업 규제와 중국 지도부의 리스크 관리 발언도 언급됐다. 결론적으로 미중 갈등이 전쟁으로 번지면 양국 주식 모두에 치명적일 수 있다고 강조했다. 구체적 종목 매수·매도 추천이나 가격 목표는 없다.

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01. market implications of the u.s china relations as propounded by nuria roubini so scenario number one is one we in which the relative hegemony of the us generally remains but china stays the largest economy in the world even if it is weaker than now or not rising us now in this scenario u.s risky assets should outperform chinese ones as u.s remains strong and chinese growth stalls both on the groud side and on innovation side however if the weakening of china and stalin of china were to lead to a new concern about a hard landing of china if the economy falters and there is a financial crisis it could lead to the risk of globally as was the case in 2015 to 29 2015 to 2016.

02. so scenario number two is a case in which china is weaker and us is weaker we are in ground zero old both uh become weaker and therefore both markets for risky assets underperform if you have low economic growth as you get economic economic mandates globally and many conflicts in failed states emerge as we have in afghanistan at the moment um as both countries underperform and they cannot provide a both a public good you know so but right now we are having with that's in this sort of scenario even though we're not having that right now but what we're having is that we haven't we have us withdrawing from um a a a situation where they're needed but china is also stepping up you know so this scenario is not occurring we just uh we have a a um an emergence of uh conflict and um uncertainty somewhere in the world where especially somewhere the u.s was very very much active in a situation a country where us ensured that there was relative relative um stability stability for at least the last two decades you know so we are not there yet we're not in that scenario it's just as i pointed out you know we have um a case of um conflict in a certain region of the world okay so in this scenario in this in this situation both equity markets will suffer and globally economic mondays will occur you don't we don't have uh then you wouldn't have leadership you don't have provisional public good even if you have um even if you don't have a clash between the two countries so right now we don't we don't have that situation as i pointed out because um china is willing to at least negotiate and ensure that there isn't any um um any decade that will affect it you know it would it doesn't want to have um um insurgents affecting its uh its territory you know because if uh i mean we know what happened in afghanistan in the past you know and also we also know that china is also cracking down on um the wiggles you know and uh so we know that very well so um i'm i'm trying to defeat i'm deviating a bit right now but you know it's just i'm trying to marry what's going on in the world today and uh what uh in this sort of scenario so um this scenario number three is um it is that of the cold war u.s remains are strong and china also becomes stronger in principle a strong us strong china strong economic growth in the two leading powers of the world should be good for u.s equities good for chinese equities and should be good for global equities however the problem in this scenario of a stronger china and us remain strong is that of the cold war scenario as we pointed out so and the cold war scenario that becomes it will be a cold war scenario that becomes prevalent as both countries want to become the global hegemon so the cold war becomes colder possibly resulting in increased decoupling and the fragmentation of the global economy as both the u.s and china seek to polarize the world and therefore in this situation of the coupling and gradual but persistent the fragmentation of the global economy you have risk off you have a slowdown in global growth you may have the vulcanization of the global economy and that can weaken risky assets both in u.s and china so a divided world split to to spares of influence is not good for the world for is not good for world not good for equities because it is fragmented deglobalized and protected protectionists and divide the world so scenario number four is one of uh through cdd's trap where china becomes stronger us becomes weaker and it leads to a worsening through this to see this trap and a possible hot war so this trap is explained as a deadly pattern of structural stress that results when the rising power challenges a prevailing warrant so the rising power will be china is china it will be china and then the prevailing one is the u.s this phenom phenomenon is as old as history itself about the pillow venetian war that devastated ancient greece so ancient greece the historian facilities explained it as such it was the rise of athens and the fear that this instilled in sparta that made war inevitable over the past 500 years these conditions have occurred 16 times so could this be the 17th one the relations between china and u.s and the emergence of china who knows it may not necessarily be so because you know the war has moved on from that time and the war has even fought much more deadly wars so and um the u.s indeed has you know um laid its mark in ward when it comes to uh um invasions and military might so there's a good chance that may not be the case you know so you can see in this scenario it is good to be in chinese assets but if you are an american and you have chinese assets you are going to be essentially taking away your investment in china as you're decoupling and washing the situation so and we know very well that um actually these in fact investments we have in china it's not just the physical investments in the company in the country they're you know you know physical assets you know not only that we have uh of yours as you obviously know that some of these tech giants from china are listing or have listed in the us you know so obviously they have listed in u.s americans and american investments have gone into those investments and we know that it's it is not enough to just list in the u.s as far as you're chinese anything that happens there does affect you so if you detain relations between china and u.s is in industry is that play it should definitely affect chinese assets you know so um we all know very well what's been going on the crackdown you know on uh uh chinese tech giants and uh the chinese leadership have come out to us to a switched world about um what it's doing and it's not trying to cause any um risk of episodes so if this if you see this trap eventually leads to a war between us and china that can be terrible for u.s and chinese equities so see what you make of this video and thank you very much for watching