저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 영상은 루비니의 위기 경고 트윗을 중심으로 금융·경기 위기 가능성을 논하나, 구체적인 가격 예측이나 종목 매매 지침은 거의 없다. 루비니 발언 소개: 연준 정책금리 인상이 인플레 억제에는 필요하지만 금융 안정 리스크 때문에 금리를 낮춰야 하는 딜레마가 있고, 큰 위기가 올 것이라는 취지다. 장단기 금리 상승(듀레이션 리스크)이 SVB, 영국 연금펀드, 미국 지역은행 문제의 원인으로 꼽혔다. 은행 위기 확산: 일본·중국 대형은행 붕괴 가상 시나리오와 대서양 양안 은행 위기 확산 우려가 언급됐다. 스위스 은행 관련 우려도 거론됐으나 구체적 수치는 없다. 인플레이션: 완강한 인플레가 선진국 중앙은행의 긴축을 제약할 것이라는 시각이 소개됐다. 채팅 반응: 금융자산 가치 하락, 파생상품 규모가 자산 기반보다 크다는 지적, 생산성 낮은 주식 기반 경제 비판 등이 소개됐다. 금리 수치: 10년물 국채 금리(TNX)가 약 4%까지 올랐다가 3.5% 아래로 급락했다는 언급이 있으나 방향 예측은 아니다. 영국 정책: 재무장관 제레미 헌트가 연금 관련 세제 혜택과 약 90억 달러 규모 지원책을 발표했다는 소식이 전해졌다. 진행자 입장: 위기 가능성은 인정하면서도 일부는 '위기가 아니라 상황'이라고 본다고 하며 결론은 유보적이다. 특정 종목·자산에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
now tweets from nurio rubini he says here this is around 53 minutes ago around close to an hour ago so it's a UK Pension funds svb and U.S Regional Banks and now graded Suites are all symptoms of Market risk giving duration risk and Rising long yields but once an economic hard Landing will occur the credit risk will emerge as additional severe risk for the real economy and the financial system and economic and financial hard Landing has been his Baseline for over a year now now it is clearly unavoidable economic stability and fighting inflation required raising policy rates much higher but now Financial stability risk require lower policy rates so we will have a great crisis that's what he's tweeting and yes I think the FED is now expected to probably um pointing out now provide a lower policy bait okay so he's um saying it's going to be a great crisis yeah giving but you know some are saying some some are saying that um there isn't we don't have a crisis we just have a situation right now even though more and more banks are Imagine to be in that sort of situation yeah some of them are more and more imagine so well we'll see whether that's what we're gonna see okay let's see what people are seeing down here Swiss V Trader imagine just for a second we all wake up and at the First Bank in Japan is First Bank in Japan is closed and then next day we wake up on the first major Bank in China's collapse overnight and uh Dr Miz ner Ramen says the stubbornly high inflation will constrain the central banks of advanced economies to proceed for the monetary monetary tightening now with banking crisis spreading across at the Atlantic one with respect the economic decline across the globe let's see what what are people saying here 's bargain credit series doesn't have um BM duration risk this okay BM looking okay says because of the globalization many asset categories are devalued in a particularly Financial Tech assets but the banks are derivative books are huge in comparison to the base to asset base yeah that's what's going on okay let's see what people are saying on this part of the tweet it's almost uh like centrally planned money in the system with widespread more Hazard is doomed to fail the industrialization of America means a hard Landing is going to be very hard can the real economy transition from fake Innovation on profitable unproductive stock based composition Center economy to supply different core CPI reducing economy let's see yes fat forms rate is too high in relationship to the U.S 10 year treasury yield and has been for quite some time as you know when they TNA X 10-year treasury I believe Rose about uh four percent recently things became too tricky so it was uh slammed back down to three point uh to below 3.5 percent pushing it up pushing up financial markets let's see what that is tnx is uh what is it okay we don't know what that is tnx maybe 10-year treasury yields we also found we also saw that the financial times have seen something as well about the Pension funds in the UK says Jeremy Hunt so that's the chancellor of the ukx Checker offers 9 billion dollars in tax breaks on surprise uh Convention of the ability pension funders in UK gym hunts offers nine billion dollars in tax business tax break and surprise pension boosts in budget for growth for growth yeah so yeah once again neither beanie is uh scene here that an economic a financial hard Landing has been his Baseline for every year now now it is uh cloudy clearly unavoidable economic stability and fighting inflation require business policy rates much higher but now the financial stability risk require lower part rates yes well I believe this um some are saying I wouldn't believe that term indeed indeed I'll give you what's going on that um raising rates raising policy rates to fight inflation is really I mean we are going to survive and other stuff you know things will get more expensive the economy is still going to handle it based on what has happened in the 1970s but um maybe with um lower policy rates things can um maybe go with a different way you know yeah even though it's on the face of it um lower rates are supposed to be good well we'll see we'll see um but in any case some are arguing that um we don't have a we don't have um we don't have a crisis on our hands but um like I pointed out earlier right now we can now see she's imagine with um disclosures about its um ability to manage its finances and all that okay so um see what you make of all of these and thank you very much for watching this video
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