Nouriel Roubini: If 10 & 30 Year Rates Go Up 100 Basis Points, Will The Housing Market Be Affected?

요약 보기

금리 100bp 상승 시 주택시장과 자산시장에 미칠 영향을 다룬 영상. 명목금리 상승은 인플레이션 우려를 반영하므로 60/40 포트폴리오와 주식에서 손실이 나고, 모기지 금리 상승이 주택시장 조정과 둔화를 부를 수 있다는 주장. 2021년 9월 말 국채금리 상승 사례: 인플레이션 우려와 연준 테이퍼링 기대로 금리가 약 22bp 상승했고, 미 국채 10년물은 6월 이후 최고 수준으로 올랐다. 이에 S&P500은 약 5% 조정, 나스닥은 성장주(장기 듀레이션, 금리 민감)가 많아 더 크게 하락했고 리츠도 조정받았다. 출연자 Bob Kendall(Kendall Report) 언급: 미 국채 경매 응찰률(커버리지)이 2~3배에서 1배 이하로 떨어지면 가장 무서운 시나리오이며, 10년물 금리가 175~186bp(1.75~1.86%)까지 급등할 수 있다고 봄. 미국 부채 자체는 두렵지 않다는 입장. 결론적으로 금리 급등은 채권뿐 아니라 주식 등 위험자산 전반에 리스크이며, 주택시장도 영향을 받을 수 있다는 것이 핵심 메시지.

다듬은 글

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01. So, Nouriel Roubini was asked this question. If 10- year and 30-year rates rise by 100 basis points, how will that affect the housing market? Could a 30-year rate affect something more important? And he said, well, if inflation is higher and the nominal yield is higher, well, the nominal interest rate refers to the rate before inflation is taken into account.

02. So you will suffer losses not only on your 60/40 investment, but also on your share of the stock, and mortgage rates will rise, which could lead to a correction and slowdown in the housing market. He then gave an example of what happened just a few weeks ago, in September of this year. Okay. Using that example, bond yields rose because people were worried about inflation and when the Fed would start tapering stimulus.

03. Yields didn't increase that much, he said, only about 22 basis points. So we have such examples. You know, the Financial Times and CNBC reported that we can see an increase in government bond yields as traders react to " hawkish" signals. A global bond sell-off pushed U.S. Treasury yields to a 3- month high on Monday, September 27, 2021, as investors reacted to the prospect of a possible interest rate hike.

04. Okay. And then CNBC reported the next day, September 28, that the benchmark 10- year U.S. Treasury yield rose again that Tuesday, reaching its highest level since June 2021, continuing its steady rise. So, given this increase, the S&P index adjusted 5% as a result of this increase in bond yields. The NASDAQ adjusted even more as there were more growth stocks, which are long- dated, interest rate-sensitive assets, and there was also a correction in REITs, which are real estate analogs.

05. So, certainly, in his opinion, a sharp rise in bond yields will hurt not only fixed income instruments, but also risky assets, including stocks. Yes, stocks are risky assets, as are some segments of the housing market. So, this is definitely a risk for a whole range of asset prices. So, we also had recently, literally yesterday, the 24th or rather the 25th, maybe today the 20th , I think it's the 20th today, September 25th, we heard from Bob Kendall from the Kendall Report YouTube channel; He said that he was not scared of the US debt itself, but that no one would come to the auction.

06. The auction showed that you usually get coverage of two to three at certain auctions, but if they start to drop below two or one to one, then that would be the scariest event. This could lead to a wild jump or move to 175 and 186 basis points for the 10-year yield. So to understand what these basis points mean, you can calculate the basis points as a percentage by multiplying them by 0.00001.

07. So we have 175, multiplied by 0.00001 will give you 0.0175. Thus, the decimal and percentage equivalent of 175 basis points would be 0.0175 or 1.75%. So, 186 basis points would be 1.86%. So, in short, that's what he answered in that question. OK. Thank you very much for watching.