저자: NourielRoubini · 외국인
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결론: 현재 글로벌 money velocity 기준으로 초인플레이션이나 디플레이션의 꼬리위험은 미미하다고 봄. 통화정책 배경: 2007~2009 금융위기 후 양적완화는 velocity 붕괴(초과지급준비금)와 약한 재정으로 인플레로 이어지지 않았음. 코로나 이후 상황: 미국 인플레 연 6.8%(근원 약 5%), 유럽·독일·캐나다·영국·호주·뉴질랜드 모두 목표 2%를 크게 상회. 양적완화 규모와 재정부양(GDP 대비 10~15%)이 훨씬 컸고, 사실상 재정적자의 직접 화폐화(헬리콥터 머니) 성격. 인플레 원인: 공급 측 병목(글로벌 공급망, Great Resignation으로 노동공급 감소)과 수요 측 과잉유동성·보복 소비가 결합. 노동자 협상력 증가로 임금-물가 악순환 우려. 중앙은행 대응: Fed, ECB, BOE 등(일본 제외)이 양적완화 축소 및 금리 인상 검토. 인플레 기대 고착(de-anchoring) 시 장기 고인플레 위험. 리스크 요인: 미중 디커플링, 기후변화, 무역·이민 규제, 사이버전, 팬데믹 등 부정적 공급충격이 성장 둔화와 인플레를 동시에 촉발할 수 있음. 결론적 판단: 초인플레는 아르헨티나·볼리비아·짐바브웨 같은 극단적 재정적자 화폐화 국가에 국한되며, 선진국에서 우려는 초인플레가 아니라 인플레가 과거보다 훨씬 높아지고 중앙은행이 성장과 물가 사이 딜레마에 빠지는 것. 출연자 전망: 초인플레·디플레 확률은 미미하나 고인플레 지속 및 중앙은행 딜레마는 현실적 위험으로 봄.
다듬은 글
on the 28th of december 2021 roubini was asked a question as it concerns uh hyperinflation money velocity and all that stuff so um we're going to see what he's had to say in that regard so there's a question that says fearmonger say money printing induces hyperinflation and fall follow the dollar others say money velocity causes inflation seeing decrease of velocity since stimuli decreased compared to cytopandemic what are the tail risk in percentage of hyperinflation and deflation we can see what uh high money velocity is so um according to investopedia it's saying here the velocity of money is a measurement of the rate at which money is extinct it is exchanged in an economy it is the number of times that money moves from one entity to another it also refers to how much unit of currency is used in a given period of time simply put it is the rate outreach money at which consumers and businesses and economy collectively spend money okay so there's uh okay the velocity of money is typically higher in expanding economies and lower in contracting economies so right now there is uh inflation going on right now um what could it possibly be higher velocity or low velocity well um if you know what the answer is you can put in the comment box below so and then he also mentioned tay risk that's uh what the question was all about the moderating terrorists so it is a chance of an event um of the array event occurring by just a probability distribution so this is um an example of a probability distribution so the risk anything beyond this um three standard deviation uh it's uh is regarded as a t risk so anything beyond here beyond this point is uh is usually a very rare event and of course they will definitely be more severe but in in economic terms it can be severe but uh when it comes to equity trading for instance um when it comes to equity trading for instance then you're talking about um not so bad that'll be good for you if your portfolio if your portfolio has had a um a rare event on this side you know which which will put profits in your account you know but this is uh severely negative so in in an economy this is uh you don't want anything at all rare event at all you don't want anything beyond that three standard deviation all that and all that stuff so um that's in a nutshell what time this uh you know it's all about so let's return and see uh what it is he's uh saying okay well uh i would say the following thing where the unconventional monetary policy after the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 but that did not lead to inflation did not the inflation i would say for two reasons one is there was a collapse of velocity so all the money was being ordered as excess reserve rather being spent or being lended out and secondly aggregate men was weak because the fiscal stimulus was also very small so we didn't have a fiscal stimulus leading to rapid economic growth and therefore we stayed in a period initially of deflation and then of law flash however the situation after the covet crisis has been different uh inflation in the united states right now is running at the annual rate of six point eight percent around five percent for core in europe is around five percent for overall inflation in germany six percent in canada uk in australia new zealand well above the target of two percent uh what are the differences the differences are that the scale of quantitative easing and credit easing has been much bigger than after the global financial crisis two that we had much more fiscal stimulus uh than after the global financial crisis the stimulus in advanced economies has been running at an art and an annual rate of 10 to 15 percent of gdp 10 in europe 15 of gdp in united states and effectively we had policies of direct monetization of these fiscal deficits because as we're doing qe and large budget deficit we're financing this deficit by literally printing money rather than issuing that that's what people refer to as helicopter drop of money or modern monetary theory or permanent debt monetization so let's see uh what permanent uh monetization is all about you can see here on wikipedia okay monetization or monetary financing is the practice of the government borrowing money from the central bank to finance public spending instead of selling bonds to private investors or raising taxes the central banks buy debt and essentially creating new money in the process to do so so you can see what it is the practice is often informally and pejoratively called a printed money or money creation it is prohibited in many countries because it is considered dangerous due to the risk of creating runaway inflation you can see you already get the get the idea of what that direct debt money monetization is uh essentially all about okay so let's return to what he's saying so it's the combination of excessive monetary stimulus excessive fiscal stimulus excessive credit easing together of course with the fact that during the covet crisis we've had a number of severe supply bottleneck the reduced aggregate supply and we had also this process of great resignation where workers become more influential and more powerful they've lost some jobs and they don't want to return with jobs with low income low wages low benefits and so on so the market power of workers increased yes indeed the market power of workers have increased absolutely yes we have seen that in so many places in your own local area you must have observed that you definitely heard about um mcdonald's increasing their prices and um in so many other places workers can literally just you know even workers that don't have any unions they just tell their employers look you have to raise the wages and they do that because there are no options you know you have definitely they are definitely occurring definitely in us and the and the uk this is absolutely occurring the the market power of workers has definitely increased there isn't any doubt about that there's more certainly no doubt about that so you have a supply side aspect of it there's a global supply chain bottlenecks and the great resignation and reduction in labor force participation rate but then on the aggregate demand side yet essentially loose monitoring fiscal policy and the combination of these things together massive aggregate demand pent-up savings now pent-up demand that is being released together with supply bottleneck that's led to this increasing inflation and even central banks that for a while were saying this is temporary only based on base effects are now agreeing that is more persistent over time that's why the fed the ecb the doe the bank of canada the rba and so on with exception of the bank of japan they're all phasing out their quantity of easing to different speed and they're all starting to think about raising policy rates as a way of fighting inflation if we don't do that inflation could become endemic because you'll have a process of a wage price spiral that increases inflation expectation and if inflation expectation rise too much faster soon then you end up in trading flesh and trap and if you're gonna have also negative supply shock of the sort that i talked about today globalization is one of them decoupling the u.s and china there's another one global climate change restriction to trade restriction to migration uh even cyber warfare even pandemic we have seen for sure that the these sort of things globalization the decoupling between us and china reassuring manufacturing and all that stuff to uh the us and other stuff you know yeah we have seen that they are already good going on globe the backlash uh against globalization you can see a video we uh uploaded in that regard continue he that was largely based on uh um what he had to say in that regard you know um you know did the coupling between china and u.s the global climate change and all that stuff restriction to trade we have seen that as well in all sorts of means that trade is being restricted you know all that stuff you know all these things are negative supply shots that reduce growth increase the cost of production and they can lead not onto inflation but also to structuration low if not negative growth so i would say we have to take seriously now the risk of inflation rather than deflation i wouldn't worry about either inflation i think hyperinflation occurs in extreme situations where you have a runaway fiscal deficit are monetized forever it happened in argentina it happened in bolivia it happened in zimbabwe it happened of course in the period between world war one and world war ii in places like the environmental republic of germany or in hungary i don't worry about hyperinflation us in europe and advanced economies but i do worry about the fact that inflation is going to be much higher than before and that's going to present significant dilemmas for central banks there'll be time if you do in them if you don't if they fight inflation they could cause a recession if they don't fight inflation and because they care about growth and jobs then they may an anchor inflation expectation and lead us eventually to high inflation and eventually to stipulation okay so let me give you an idea of what um this on anchor inflation expectations is all about you can see here on uh seeking alpha it says here on our code this is the idea that consumer price inflation is in part a psychological phenomenon that inflation expectations are a key factor in driving future inflation the idea is that once consumers expect inflation in the future and accept it what i call the inflationary mindset they will adjust to it and pay higher prices rather than refuse to buy at those prices you can see how these things it's a real thing it's a real thing you know uh it's a cycle that keeps on feeding the need on itself you know investors pay that you the retailer or are you the retailer you be say oh yes you know they are they are accepting it and then you would even increase fall and then it keeps on going higher and higher and higher you can see that this is a real thing it is a real thing you know and then uh so in my opinion i would conclude that um he has indicated that uh the risk of probability that i call i'll conclude that he has i mean i will he has indicated that the hill risk of of uh probably or the retail risk or probability of having hyperinflation or deflation given the current state of money velocity globally i would say is minimal yeah it's even though all of these things are happening and the prospect of things going wrong i would also say it's really minimal and especially as this um on this one this last piece of uh you know explanation here on anchoring over of inflation even though it is a real thing you can see how can it can easily easily affect inflation and drive it higher but you know i think based on what he has said the risk of detailed risk of having a hyperinflation or deflation i think is still pretty much minimal as well okay so thank you very much for watching this video
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