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시장 타이밍과 거시 예측은 불가능하므로 공격/방어의 정도만 조정하고 전량 매도는 피해야 한다고 주장. 미국 주식은 밸류에이션이 높아 다소 방어적으로, 중국은 비관 속 가격이 싸다는 이유로 기존 포지션을 신중히 확대 중이라고 언급. 머스크-트럼프 관계의 테슬라 영향은 불확실해 투자할 이유가 없다고 봄.
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are investors looking past escalation given Trump's rat rake on a quick end to the wars let's discuss this and more with veteran investor Howard marks co-chair of oak tree Capital Management which has more than $200 billion in assets under management Howard could have you with us it's such a chaotic World it does seem like Traders are underpricing the risk from geopolitics because even today all eyes on Nvidia well you know uh the world is chaotic the future is never clear uh some people spend their time trying to figure out the future and pricing it I say it's unclear and we abstract from that so you know we just we just try to look at individual companies uh and figure out which ones will grow which one will repay their loans and uh and uh deal on that basis we call that bottom up not top down you talk about how it is about intrinsic value everything else is baloney but how do you get intrin value in a market that's overpriced I mean valuations are skyting especially on the S&P well you say it's overpriced uh I would say it's high-priced uh overpriced is a judgment call and you know you you you you you think about what you think something is worth you compare how it's selling Rel relative to that uh and then in my opinion that should determine whether or not you're aggressive or defensive so uh I think we would agree that uh us stock valuations for example are on the high side relative to history that would uh tell me to be a little less aggressive than usual a little more defensive but not necessarily to get out you know getting out uh is is really a big step most of the time in my 55 years in this business has been been a mistake um either you get out and it goes up or you get out and it goes down and you forget to get back in and it goes up without you so uh you know it's just a matter of calibrating in my opinion your behavior between aggressiveness and defensiveness when things are a little high as they are a little more defensive than usual but this notion of uh risk on risk off in or out buy or sell that's too black and white is not fitting for the world we live in the thing is right now we're seeing her mentality moms and PPS getting into everything that institutional investors are getting into and you usually traditionally historically that's the time to get out well but again I was with you until you said out because because you know just remember this and everybody you know as I said we don't we're not Market timers we're not macro forecasters and I told you that before the break and I insist it's true you could have said if you had a great foresight you could have said in in 2019 I think there's going to be a pandemic I'm going to get out in 20 21 you could have said I think that Russia is going to invade Ukraine I'm going to get out in 22 you could have said I think Hamas will attack Israel I'm going to get out you would have been right about the events but it would have cost you a lot of money and we not only do we never know what's going to happen in the bigger world but we also don't know how the Market's going to react and so to be dogmatic and to say it's high I'm getting out is a mistake Warren Buffett who always says it best says don't bet against the United States for example and you know Warren Buffett has taken money off the table more than $300 billion worth why no he says there's nothing to buy valuations are high but but what percentage you know people look and they say well Buffett sold some stocks does that mean we should get out what percentage of his stocks that he sell probably rather small uh so it's not a broad statement you know if if if it's a little high and and I I say be less aggressive if you wanted to sell 2 or 3% of your stocks I understand but Buffett's not selling all his stocks and and and neither I think should anybody else Howard you talk about how you hate making calls you know predictions estimates but Goldman came out to say that it sees a further percent 10% upside in the S&P from now through the end of 2025 yes is is Goldman right 10 10 well that's pretty good isn't it uh I mean it on the other hand Goldman I think is fair to say put out a report three or four weeks ago which they said that the PE ratio on the S&P 500 is high so as opposed to 10% average return over the last century they're projecting 3% for the next decade so that's rather cautionary it's it's not get out it's not sell but it's you know uh moderate your expectations on the other hand a 10% gain between now and the end of 25 would be quite nice so so um I think what this shows hinda is that investing in the short run is very uncertain and nobody should think they really uh know what's coming and most people uh should take a an almost passive approach the idea is it's good to invest it's good to invest in the United States it's good to invest over time and it's bad to try to Mastermind it in the short run with get in get out now if everybody gets gives up on getting on getting in and getting out you may lose a few viewers uh but the point is investing is a good thing do it early do it a lot so that you can build the nest egg don't screw it up you talked about how it's hard to do it on a short-term basis okay let's take a longer term basis four years the trauma Administration looking at who he has suggested in terms of his cabinet pegs lotnik for instance uh for Commerce and probably wals for treasury how are you looking at that how might that impact Market sentiment and how this plays out again these things are very hard number number one what's going to happen nobody knows his appointments are not firm they have yet to be confirmed his policies are not known what is he going to do nobody really knows what he's going to do um number two what else will be going on in the world he's not the only show it's complicated uh number three how will the market react to all these things uh uh number four uh the president's influence on most things is usually quite limited uh number five uh as I said before our invest our economy is in good shape so it in general things are going well in the United States and or better than most other places and that's why things are high in the United States so uh the situation is generally good but you're paying a lot for it uh we'd like to get a good situation at a bargain price it's rarely the case I don't think things are crazy high now and I don't think it's time to get out how are you reading into the president's relationship with Elon Musk for instance you know he's been put in charge of the Department of uh efficiency we saw Trump at um musk event spaceship um SpaceX uh just today do you read into the potential of perhaps how Tesla might play you know might might gain from that do you see the potential of EVS gaining from that how how do you read into that well uh I'm not smart enough to know the answer to that question uh I think that this is a very unusual situation uh one we've rarely ever seen before a a bromance if you will between a president and and a and a founder of a company uh uh there's no doubt about the fact that musk is uh brilliant idiosyncratic uh people have been talking about uh increasing efficiency in government and eliminating fraud and waste for decades I don't think anything's ever been done about it and the question is uh I I I assume that what's going on means that musk will do more about it than has been done in the past and then we'll get to see uh whether it works but you know this is just one more thing which is so unpredictable and indeterminate that I don't think it's worth most investors doing anything about it so no point piling into Tesla no this is no the the the reasoning through which uh Trump's relationship with musk and musk's role in government produces an improved outlook for Tesla is is very attenuated I wouldn't go there elsewhere in the world China has been front and center with seeing stimulus in an attempt for China to revive the economy do you think China is doing enough I mean I know you see value in some Chinese stocks um China is attempting something very difficult they had what I call the Chinese Miracle they had 10% GDP growth a year for a few decades when they were coming into the modern era uh a lot of that or some of it was built on stimulus you can't stimulate your way to growth forever uh they've tried to back off on the stimulus but that has caused the growth slowdown that they now they want to they don't want to have the full brunt of that slowdown so they're trying to kind of calibrate that's the word I use in many cases they trying to calibrate the the right amount of stimulus to produce a a good growth but not an excessive rely on stimulus and and and stimulus sometimes leads to unwise behavior uh uh it's not hard to it's not easy to get it right uh I'm hoping they will um I know they're dedicated to test they understand the importance of 5% GDP growth and let me just say 5% sounds like a Slowdown vus versus 10 but it's a a well above average growth rate compared to the rest of the world but you talked about how it's challenging for China it's attempting something that's so difficult why is in China a value trap why is it still you know full of value well I I think because it first of all it has great potential um uh for to to come into its own um and uh you know I I mentioned before that the US situation is doing well but high priced the Chinese situation has fundamental questions but it's bargain priced which is better you know you can't it's all investing it's a matter of relative choices but with the risk that its nent recovery might be jeopardized by Trump's policies and further tariffs on on the economy well if you if you can tell me what Trump's really going to do as opposed to his rhetoric uh and and and uh if you can tell me whether Trump's rhetoric is going to induce behavior on China's part that makes Trump back off from his rhetoric then I'll I may know the answer but nobody can do that where does he value in China oh I I you know I'm not I'm not uh close enough to the operating level to be able to talk about have we seen the end of the crisis in the property sector for instance is there a sense that because it it takes a recovery in the property sector to actually revive investor sentiment and confidence well you know anytime you have a a an amount of building which is highly stimulated by by the availability of capital um then you have to go through a period of adjustment in which the in which the buildings that have been built are absorbed and some have to be repurposed some growth you have to grow into that space and that's that doesn't happen over night and it doesn't happen because the government uh turns a policy lever it's going to take some time uh the question is not uh whether they have to do it the question is uh will it bottom out will they will they will they stop adding excessively to the property stock and uh will they put in place policies designed to create the absorption um my bias is that they will and and you know uh many people in the investment Community describe China as uninvestable uh to me that word is music to my ears I've made my whole career uh buying assets that other people consider uninvestable and when you do that you have a chance of getting a bargain so I think that clearly China is on the on the pile of things that people feel ill about and it's on that pile that you find the bargain that doesn't mean that you should buy everything on the pile but that's where you look for the castoffs and the bargains so you've been adding to your positions in China well we we have we have a a good uh position in China and have had for a long time can you share some of that position in any way no I don't go into names uh but you know we're continuing to uh to invest in China uh carefully and uh you know when the when the fundamental situation is uncertain you have to take care but the available of the availability of assets at at at uh beaten down prices is a great starting point
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