저자: JamieDimon · 외국인
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디몬은 이번 관세 충격이 2008년 금융위기와는 다르다고 보며 은행 시스템 레버리지는 낮다고 평가한다. 다만 지정학·재정적자·끈끈한 인플레이션 등으로 심각한 상황이며, 관세는 약간의 인플레이션과 성장 둔화를 낳을 것이라 본다. 기업들의 지출 축소와 신용 문제 증가 가능성을 언급하며 경기침체 가능성을 인정하지만 확정하지는 않는다. 무역 협상은 시간이 걸리므로 빠른 진전이 시장 안정에 중요하다고 강조한다.
다듬은 글
You've seen so many crises in your days before financial crisis.com etc etc. How does this moment in time compare to those? Yeah. Well, it's nothing like '08. Okay. So, in clarity and nothing and the 2000.com thing was very brief. I mean, lasted like nine months or something like that. So, but the financial crisis when you almost paid $2 a share for Bear Sterns.
Yeah, we paid 10. I know. Still very He wanted two initially. Pollson wanted two. I wanted to get the deal done. So, um, it it doesn't compare to that. The world was massively overleveraged. There was a a mortgage problem. You're going to have, you know, half a trillion or maybe a trillion dollars of actual real problems.
The banking system is not that leveraged today. Uh, but it's serious. And it was serious before the last election. We have a huge complex geopolitical situation, huge fiscal deficits, not just here, but around the world, sticky inflation, which I personally think will not go away so quick. Uh, and then you have, you know, what's going to happen to tariffs, what's going to happen to trade, what's going to happen.
So, you know, tariffs and trade are just part of that mix. They're not, they don't completely stand alone. So, what do you think about the tariff plan? I think it is perfectly reasonable for someone to say that trade was unfair. There were unfair trade things. And remember, it's not just tariffs. It's tariffs.
I think they have the VAT wrong, how they understand it, and I think they should really get a better understanding to make it easy to negotiate. But there all these non-tariff barriers around food and energy and then subsidies which you know China's famous for. So it's totally reasonable to say we want to make trade better.
But I also want to point out to the Americans we have the best economy in the world. Our GDP per person is $85,000. China's is $15,000. So you got to put a little bit into context. But you know and then of course when they put the tariffs in it was way beyond what people expected. That will cause a little inflation, slow down growth.
Uh, but I hope what they really do is let Scott Bessant, who I think is a professional, negotiate. I know Japan's here, I gather Korea, Vietnam have called, and then eventually Europe. Get those things done quickly. If you want to calm down the markets, show progress in those things, and let Scott take the time.
Trade deals are very large and very complex. They can't be done overnight, but you really have to have teams working them to get them right. It sounds like you're taking a calm head in the face of all of this, despite the fact that we've seen $6 trillion dollars in market value wiped out in about a week.
Yeah, I'm taking a calm view, but I think it could get worse if we don't make some progress here. Uh, and of course, you know, trade wars, you saw China raise the race today, you know, and people get angry and they're going to have responses and every country's got choices. So, there are short-term choices, there long-term choices.
And I also want to point out if you kind of look forward in the next, you know, 60 days, every company is going to be telling you guys, you know, what it means to them. You know, I think today I saw Delta remove their guidance and things like that will affect stock prices again. So this R it's not over yet.
And then you've seen tremendous moves in swap prices, asset prices, treasury prices. There's a 10-year Treasury uh auction today and how they go. So yeah, let but let them settle down, take a deep breath, negotiate some trade deals. that's the best thing they can do. I want to get back to what you just mentioned, the earning season in a moment because I spoke with a number of CEOs just last night and they said, "I'm cutting expenses.
I'm I'm cutting my capex." So, I want to I want to get your take on how that plays out. But look at the tenure this morning, Jamie. It's up almost 17 basis points. And I just spoke with the Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessant, and asked him if part of this is China selling treasuries. Here's my conversation, a snippet of it with Scott Bessant.
Watch this. There's one of these deleveraging convulsions that's going on right now the in the markets and you know I think it it's in the fixed income market. There's some very large leverage players who are experiencing losses. They're having to delever. I believe that there is nothing systemic about this.
I think that it is an uncomfortable but normal deleveraging that's going on in the bond market. And I expect that as we see the leverage come down, uh, the risk managers tapping people on the shoulders, telling them to bring their books down, which is what happens every couple of years as leverage builds up, then the market will calm down.
Is China dumping treasuries to try to put pressure on this uh this market? Yeah, I I think it works against their purposes if they are dumping treasuries because, you know, if they're dumping treasuries, then they have to buy something else. if if they sell dollars then they strengthen their currency and as I said earlier they've actually been weakening their currency which is a loser for everyone right and again when I when I hear all these stories that the dollar is no longer going to be the reserve currency you know if you end up with the Chinese who are willing to use their currency as a trade tool that doesn't seem like a very good reserve asset to me Jamie your reaction well he's exactly right you a lot of deleveraging hedge funds and players out there which which he obviously is quite experienced with things like that and that is the initial effect.
There will be other effects and we still are the reserve currency which will be true for a long time but a very important point China and Russia have made it clear they want to kind of dismantle the postworld war II system and I think the goal of all this trade stuff should be to make Europe and our trading partners Japan, Korea, Philippines stronger, not weaker.
bring them closer as we build up our military and any trade that protects military that we should definitely do. I mean there's a we we made a lot of mistakes about as you know pharmaceuticals you know shipping uh uh pharmaceutical greens penicellin there that we're so reliant on China for all we can't rely on any potential adversary for things we need for our military and so you know there I'm quite sympathetic that we should do that's absolutely paramount and and you wrote about this in your annual letter to shareholders this week and you talked about national security being the number one priority here but it takes time to get the supply chains to America.
So, in terms of getting this done fast, I mean, how much faster can this happen? And was there another way to get corporations to move supply chains here other than forcing them to it? Because we've been talking about this for a long time. Yeah, you can't really force them, but like I said, there are tons of ways that people manipulate trade, but you know, or and his subsidies and his land grants and his guarantees.
We need to do that for rare earths, pharmaceutical devices, semiconductor chips. We should do it right. I mean we shouldn't do it in a way that wastes a lot of money and lets corporations feed at that great tax trough or something like that and it could be done but it will take years but we that we need to start right away and even even some of these other supply chains you know a lot of companies were too res too reliant on one country it'll take them to move but I think you got to separate you know making sneakers from making guns you know one is like really important one is you know it's not as big a deal so uh but great but but the point about national security is economic security national security are almost directly related in the long run.
You know, hopefully when these wars get resolved and I hope in the interest of Ukraine where they have sovereignty when it's over and the interest of Israel, we're not being constantly attacked by terrorists on three sides. You need to keep the economic alliance together. I think it would be in Russia's and North Korea's Iran's and China's interest to fragment the Western world.
And I think that would be the biggest long-term mistake. And I'm talking about over 30 or 40 years that I I don't want to read the book about how the West was lost. Yeah. But but at the same time, timing is of the essence, right? I mean, you just mentioned a moment ago that we're headed into the earnings series.
You're obviously reporting earnings on on Friday, so we're sensitive to that. But is there anything you can tell us about the environment right now in terms of loan demand, in terms of default? Because while all of this is happening, you've got, for example, your uh economics team predicting a recession this year.
And you've got corporations saying, "I'm cutting back on spending and investing right now." Yeah. So, normally I don't pay that much attention to anecdotes, but you you heard them. They're real. I hear it from just everybody now. Going to cut back a little bit. I'm going to wait, see what happens. That that is kind of recessionary talk.
So, you know, we've been in this kind of very soft landing for a long time. Consumers have money. They were spending money. corporate is making profits. I do remind people part of that was because of our extraordinary fiscal spending. You know, we borrowed and spent 11 trillion dollars since co and that obviously drives a lot of growth.
It drives corporate profits. So, I think what you're going to see now is corporations making announcement after announcement about don't expect my guidance to be true. I'm going to hold back here a little bit. These are long-term decisions they have to make. They may want to see the tax bill, which you know, hopefully they can get done in July.
So, yeah, I think you you're going to see a slowdown. And I think the economists are probably right to say that you should expect that. Well, how significant a slowdown? I mean, are you seeing defaults? Not yet, but I expect them. And the other thing which we haven't had a any slowdown or real recession and CO was so short, I almost don't include it in so long that if you have rates going up a little bit and inflation is sticky and credit spreads gapping out, which they're going to, I think you'll see more credit problems than people have seen in a long time.
And and yet you got to get ahead of it and cut expenses. Now, you've talked about the 10% to all of your different uh groups at JP Morgan. You say JP Morgan's going to be fine, but we could see a softening of the macro story. Yeah. So JP Morg I did say to the J Morgan people the 10% but that's I think we just got a little sloppy in the last five years.
I'm kind of mad at myself. I remind people, you know, what kills companies is complacency, arrogance, bureaucracy, and that little speech I gave. I was talking about Sears and AM and co- Eastman Kodak. And it's amazing to me that these companies that they just get too lax in what they do. And we got a little bit of that, too.
So, we're going back to killing bureaucracy. You know, we put some headcount controls in place. Not because we're not doing well, not forcing people to cut. I call it just like going for your run and eating your spinach. It's not a big deal. You know, we can we can handle that and we become a better company.
People having a lot of fun, by the way, raising their hand and saying, "Why are we doing this? Why can we cut this out?" And whatever the say just just do it. Go ahead. You got my permission. So, are you hearing that from CEOs as well in terms of business managers? Are they now going to start pulling it in and cutting back on on various expenses?
I think you're going to see a little bit of that. Yes. Yeah. H but how significant would you expect that? Do you personally expect a recession? I I am going to defer to my economist at this point, but I think probably that's a likely outcome. Because markets I mean when you see a 2000 decline, 20,000 point decline, it sort of feeds on itself, doesn't it?
because it it makes you feel like you're losing money in your 401k, you're losing money in your pension, you got to cut back. Yeah. I always remind people markets aren't always right, but sometimes they are right. And I think this time they are right because they're just pricing in uncertainty at the macro level and uncertainty at the micro level, the at the actual company level.
And then how it affects consumer sentiment, it's hard to tell. You know, consumers still have jobs, wages are going up the low end, which I think is a good thing. But if companies start cutting back, yeah, the consumer sentiment changes and business sentiment changes. You I think you've already seen business sentiment change a little bit.
Hopefully, you know, no one's wishing for that, but you know, hopefully if there is one, it'll be short, but um well, but but I do think fixing these tariff issues and traders would be a good thing to do. That will get one major uncertainty behind us. We have the strongest economy in the world. It would be good not to add to the uncertainty out there.
How long would you wait to see these fixes take place? I don't know. I mean, I look I would whatever they can do, you know, like I said, trade is really complicated. I mean, these trade agreements are thousands of pages long. It is product by product and area by area, non-trade barriers, subsidies. You know, there's tons of food.
If you just if you spend time in just food alone, you'd be shocked how many different food agreements there are and disagreements and protection of local farmers, which almost every country does. So, the sooner the better. Well, in terms of they should get at it. In terms of the capital markets business, you've got to believe that trading is going to do well uh in the first quarter, but we've sat here with various CEOs who said, "I'm not going to do my IPO right now.
I'm not going to do my my deal in in terms of M&A. We spoke with Ken Leon from CFR and he says that the first quarter was very weak for those kinds of capital markets businesses." Yeah. So, without giving anything away because you're reporting earnings. Yeah. So I I always tell people volatile markets generally are good for our capital market trading business but they're generally not good for you know equity debt issue and stuff like that.
So you know I I mean it's very important Jay Warren is going to be in fine shape but almost no matter what happens we always run the company so we can serve people in good times and bad times just like we did during the great financial crisis. But I do expect the bad part of these volatile markets isn't what it does to a JP Morgan.
It's what it does to the capital markets and the ability of companies to raise money. So IPOs are being cancelled. You know, a couple brid a couple of hung deals out there in the high yield land and bridge loans. And that just, you know, that just slows everything down. And so that's the bad part of these volatile markets.
It's not that it's bad for uh us, it's bad for small businesses, middlesized companies, you know, large companies can usually get the funding they need. President Trump has been trying to put America first. Is he doing that while also alienating foreigners to America? Somebody told me last night, "Look, I'm trying to do a deal in Canada." They say, "We don't want to buy American in any way right now." Do you see any anti-American sense?
Yeah, we've lost a couple bond deals already because they're not mean. They simply say that, you know, look, we'd rather just do this with a local bank than with a US bank. Look, we could overcome that. You know, that's why part of me thinks that don't let this go on too long because it's causing cumulative damage, including huge anger at the United States.
Like I said, if if my goal would be keep the allies together, get them together. Keep work on that, you know, and you fix the trade. Whether it's unfair trade, fix it. Doesn't matter if they're an ally or not, it should be fixed. And I think there are legitimate complaints about military spending. You know, that they need to spend more on the military.
So, I hope I hope what you saw like for Europe is a wakeup call. Fix their economy. You know, they have huge bureaucracy, you know, red tape, which I now call blue tape. And, you know, and if they fix that, that'd be good for them. and then, you know, pull them closer and keep the Western world together.
And and the European Union, by the way, I don't know if they're unified. I mean, they it's called the European Union, but you know, Germany is in a different place than I think Italy is. So, how does President Trump do that? Yeah, they Europe should seize the moment. There's the Draggy report. They I think they all acknowledge they need to spend more in the military.
They all acknowledge I think their GDP per person has gone from something like 75% of Americans to 50% of Americans. I mean, they got to look inside and say, "What did they do?" And it's literally rules, regulations, and red tape and anti- business and, you know, too expensive tax systems and labor laws that were meant to protect workers, but very often these laws are passed, they have the completely opposite effect.
You know, they protect existing workers, but not new workers. They don't adopt technology fast enough. They don't have enough innovation. They could fix that. And I and I actually think you now have between President Mcronone, Chancellor Murs, Maloney, Kierce Dharmmer, those people are coming together and they're kind of saying all that.
They have to do it. It's hard, you know, in the eur in Europe. And and Maloney is on her way to the US to meet with President Trump on the 17th. In your annual letter, you wrote about how successful JP Morgan is moving what do you say 10 or 12 trillion dollars a a day in in terms of the amount of business that you're handling and you gave the kudos to all of your people.
What's interesting when I was reading that I thought you know it's interesting that here's a bank that's moving so much money and doing so much activity and you're not even the small the biggest in the world. Chinese banks are much bigger. So tell us about that a little and the competition that you face when you go up against some of these large Chinese banks for business because I think most people realize now China is an adversary if not an enemy right now.
Yeah. I put in the adversary category not enemy but um well first we compete with banks in every country. we compete with fintech here and that 10 trillion just to it's important to put in context 10 trillion dollars of money being moved three trillion securities being bought but it's also representative of the enormous flows around the world so when people can estimate they predict the effect of global flows of capital it's hard to do I mean you're talking about hundreds of trillions of dollars a day that are moving around as people making all these different decisions about where to invest and where to send their money and who to pay things like that so the Chinese banks are bigger in terms of total assets not in terms of market cap, probably about the same side.
They're supported, you know, there's they're state controlled. So, it's very very different. So, they're kind of part of how they look at it. And, you know, China has this state, I'm going to call it state capitalism, kind of this mix of subsidies and how they run things. And it gives them the benefit that they can run their country as a whole, you know, and we don't, you know, we have a democracy and that's very different.
But I do think what I say about us is we need to get our own act together. All right. We we need to get if you want to have America be very strong, our own health care, our own infrastructure, our own immigration, our own regulations, our own red tape, our own affordable housing, we we could be growing at 3% a year.
And I think we should be striving to that. And had we done that the last 20 years, our GDP per person would be $15,000 more. So, you know, to me, China isn't, if you look at us, you know, 85,000 GDP, theirs is 15. We have all the food, war, and energy we need. They import 10 million barrels of oil a day.
You know, they're surrounded. They have a very complex geopolitical neighborhood. Philippines, Koreas, Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam, Pakistan, India, Russia, you know, and they're kind of angering some of those folks too because of what they're doing in the South China Sea. We don't. We have peace. We have the Atlantic in the Pacific.
We have peace with Mexico and Canada. We're kind of blessed. We're blessed with the gifts of God and the gifts of the founding fathers. And so, we should just get our own act together and we'll be fine. Are there areas around the world that you see right now that are doing well? Well, America's probably doing the best and you know, part of that is fueled by the fiscal spending.
I remind people we are exceptional. We're not quite that exceptional. You know, if other countries had borrowed and spent a trillion dollars, they would have had more growth, too. But there's another side to that, the sticky inflation and things like that. But but there is no look there a lot of countries do a lot of things well, but there's no country with quite the innovation.
We have quite the capabilities. you know, this energy, you know, it's an unbelievable thing because not only does it reduce the cost for all of our industrial companies, but you know, that LG that we could send to Europe, it's cleaner for Europe because their alternative is call and and they need it to be secure, you know.
So to me we have this unbelievable position energy is this unbel services we have the best financial markets in the world I'm talking about all of it capital markets hedge funds private equity investors and it is it is part of the flywheel that creates all this innovation you see and you don't just see it in New York you know you see it in Silicon Valley but you see it in St.
in Kansas, in Austin, you know, in Nashville. And so, you know, this country is unbelievable. You know, democracy works in spite of the fact, you know, we seem to have a lot of polarization these days. I I want to get into policy with you, Jamie, and get your thoughts on what policies are needed. Now, the tax cuts conversation is going on.
We're going to take a short break and tap into the energy capacity in America and the efforts right now to extend the Trump tax cuts. I'm talking with the chairman and CEO of JP Morgan Chase.
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